USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!

[Volbound1700]

Yeah, but a 'source' said.

I find it hard to imagine the ACC teams going anywhere right now with their GOR deal. Now they may announce like OU and Texas did and sit in the ACC for a while.

I would be surprised if we see any quick movements. I will say the Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah move to Big12 has a lot of legit support behind it and that probably kills any chance for Pac12 to save itself. So that should be the move everyone is watching right now.

 

[Volbound1700]

sorry got TN mixed up with Auburn.. since they both just won 1 BCS championship

No problem. Auburn won in 2010. Auburn was unbeaten in 2004 but did NOT get to play. There are some smaller polls out there that gave Auburn a share of the title but both the AP and Coaches gave to USC who won BCS Title game over Oklahoma. That game got vacated though due to Reggie Bush (that is kind of harsh IMO).

I actually saw that Auburn team play Tennessee both times that year (in Knoxville and in Atlanta for Conference Championship Game).

 

[Wild Turkey]

Let’s put all this stuff into a logical order:

1. Notre Dame is the white whale and they are either going to stay independent or go to the B1G. However contractually for them to join the B1G before 2036 it will be very complicated and none of of us know to what extent. My guess is it won’t happen soon.

2. The PAC and the B12 are meeting this week so that should send some signals but the tea leaves look like we are either going to see a full merger or a group of schools will join the B12. The only possibility I don’t see is the PAC adding B12 schools as I think they for once have the upper hand. It’s looking like the PAC will cease to exist soon in any kind of recognizable form.

The next move/clue will come from those PAC/B12 meetings and I won’t be surprised if we don’t see at least Colorado, Utah and Arizona schools make a move.

Oregon and Washington will wait out the B1G but I don’t see movement there without ND.

I’m betting we see the B12 absorb some of the PAC, the ACC/ND deal surviving this round and no one else being added to the P2 at this time. All of this won’t happen until 2025 so some of the bigger names like Oregon, Washington and Stanford are going to remain pretty silent and not rush into anything until they know for sure the B1G isn’t an option. No one knows when that would happen so it could be two years.

 

[rfjeff9]

I find it hard to imagine the ACC teams going anywhere right now with their GOR deal. Now they may announce like OU and Texas did and sit in the ACC for a while.

I would be surprised if we see any quick movements. I will say the Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah move to Big12 has a lot of legit support behind it and that probably kills any chance for Pac12 to save itself. So that should be the move everyone is watching right now.

Could be. But we'd all be crazy to not think both SEC and B1G are talking right now to some of the ACC schools. How long the GOR stays in place hinges on how many schools are being talked to.

 

[Volbound1700]

Let’s put all this stuff into a logical order:

1. Notre Dame is the white whale and they are either going to stay independent or go to the B1G. However contractually for them to join the B1G before 2036 it will be very complicated and none of of us know to what extent. My guess is it won’t happen soon. ACC and even SEC are in play although I think both are far-fetched compared to the B1G or independent option. Still, I wouldn't take them off the board, especially ACC.

2. The PAC and the B12 are meeting this week so that should send some signals but the tea leaves look like we are either going to see a full merger or a group of schools will join the B12. The only possibility I don’t see is the PAC adding B12 schools as I think they for once have the upper hand. It’s looking like the PAC will cease to exist soon in any kind of recognizable form. Agreed. I think some teams get left out, notably Oregon State and Washington State. This is the next domino that will fall.

The next move/clue will come from those PAC/B12 meetings and I won’t be surprised if we don’t see at least Colorado, Utah and Arizona schools make a move. Agree

Oregon and Washington will wait out the B1G but I don’t see movement there without ND. Agree and they may have to go into the Big12 for a short period (or go Independent)

I’m betting we see the B12 absorb some of the PAC, the ACC/ND deal surviving this round and no one else being added to the P2 at this time. All of this won’t happen until 2025 so some of the bigger names like Oregon, Washington and Stanford are going to remain pretty silent and not rush into anything until they know for sure the B1G isn’t an option. No one knows when that would happen so it could be two years. I think you are correct with the prediction. I don't think we are going to see the wild moves everyone is mentioning, at least not this year. The ACC GOR is still a bogey hanging over other school's head. However, if B1G and SEC agree on playoff format, the ACC may fold quicker as teams may get desperate and even take losses to get a spot in the playoff. It almost seems like B1G and SEC are kind of, working together. Maybe that was the real Alliance all along.

Wild Turkey, added some minor comments above.

 

[Volbound1700]

Could be. But we'd all be crazy to not think both SEC and B1G are talking right now to some of the ACC schools. How long the GOR stays in place hinges on how many schools are being talked to.

Here are the schools that may want out:

Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
Virginia
Georgia Tech - Not sure about this one, but I will go with even the absurd rumors.

Here are the schools that will want to stay:

Boston College
Louisville
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
NC State
Wake Forest
Duke
Virginia Tech

No matter how you spin it, a majority of teams are not in the realignment discussion so the league is likely not going anywhere.

 

[Thiefery]

I think VaTech and Duke will find a home in the SEC..

I do think ND makes the move.. the BiG would cover the cost to pay the ACC it's exit fee or come to a settlement for the "other sports" agreement (Football isn't one of them).

ND deal with NBC expires soon, be a good time to go ahead and move in with the BiG

 

[Deep Creek]

yeah they won the first BCS bowl game.. Also if you the 2nd tier of SEC schools, they have done better than the second tier of BiG schools too.

Which is why I get the whole, it's Bama or nothing..but why doesn't the BiG get the same slack when only 1 of their schools have won a championship.. hell has another BiG school played for a title since the BCS era?

Edit** Looked it up.. Nebraska played for the championship in 2001

They weren't in the B1G at the time.

Outside the SEC, there really hasn't been enough "variety" in either the BCS or CFP era...IMO. At least the SEC has sent more than one of two teams. B1G finally got a 3rd one last year with Michigan. But the ACC, PAC 12 and Big 12 with 2,2, and 1 respectively have been blah. And I don't blame Clem, FSU, Oregon, Washington and Oklahoma, I blame their conference mates for not stepping up.

While the best team will probably still win it all, going to 8 or 12 MIGHT help with some variety.

 

[Volbound1700]

They weren't in the B1G at the time.

Outside the SEC, there really hasn't been enough "variety" in either the BCS or CFP era...IMO. At least the SEC has sent more than one of two teams. B1G finally got a 3rd one last year with Michigan. But the ACC, PAC 12 and Big 12 with 2,2, and 1 respectively have been blah. And I don't blame Clem, FSU, Oregon, Washington and Oklahoma, I blame their conference mates for not stepping up.

While the best team will probably still win it all, going to 8 or 12 MIGHT help with some variety.

Michigan State went to the Playoff one year and got slammed in first game by Alabama. So B1G has had another team made it. However, no one from the B1G except Ohio State has shown that they can keep up with the Alabamas, Georgis, LSUs, Clemsons of the world.

 

[rfjeff9]

Here are the schools that may want out:

Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
Virginia
Georgia Tech - Not sure about this one, but I will go with even the absurd rumors.

Here are the schools that will want to stay:

Boston College
Louisville
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
NC State
Wake Forest
Duke
Virginia Tech

No matter how you spin it, a majority of teams are not in the realignment discussion so the league is likely not going anywhere.

I am more inclined to believe most of them want a better deal than only getting half the money that the two bigs teams do for 12 more years. That alone makes me think any team that believes they have a chance and a place to land would go, even to the big12 if the money is significantly better, and we don't know what it will wind up being there.

The comments on this thread alone account for 7-8 teams getting poached and that isn't even counting the big12 getting any. Not that anyone on here knows WTF they're talking about, but that's not the point.

ACC isn't happy with their shit deal when other conferences are raking in twice the money per team annually. I don't think the GOR will last to 2035, it can be voted down if enough schools want out. They can read the writing on the wall as well as us, so what's the incentive to make less than half of what Rutgers makes for 12 more years?

Either that or add another team and renegotiate the contract?

BTW, the fans of GT want out. The powers at the school don't, and would prefer us to not have athletics at all.

 

[Thiefery]

They weren't in the B1G at the time.

Outside the SEC, there really hasn't been enough "variety" in either the BCS or CFP era...IMO. At least the SEC has sent more than one of two teams. B1G finally got a 3rd one last year with Michigan. But the ACC, PAC 12 and Big 12 with 2,2, and 1 respectively have been blah. And I don't blame Clem, FSU, Oregon, Washington and Oklahoma, I blame their conference mates for not stepping up.

While the best team will probably still win it all, going to 8 or 12 MIGHT help with some variety.

you would have thought that the conferences would have jumped at the CFP expansion.. Sankey even told them they should, but they got their feelings hurt when UT/ou going to the SEC was leaked.

Now more than ever, those other conferences that decided to follow the BiG lead in saying no, desperately want it now.. But it's too late

 

[Thiefery]

Michigan State went to the Playoff one year and got slammed in first game by Alabama. So B1G has had another team made it. However, no one from the B1G except Ohio State has shown that they can keep up with the Alabamas, Georgis, LSUs, Clemsons of the world.

I was talking about Championship games..

 

[Deep Creek]

Let’s put all this stuff into a logical order:

1. Notre Dame is the white whale and they are either going to stay independent or go to the B1G. However contractually for them to join the B1G before 2036 it will be very complicated and none of of us know to what extent. My guess is it won’t happen soon.

2. The PAC and the B12 are meeting this week so that should send some signals but the tea leaves look like we are either going to see a full merger or a group of schools will join the B12. The only possibility I don’t see is the PAC adding B12 schools as I think they for once have the upper hand. It’s looking like the PAC will cease to exist soon in any kind of recognizable form.

The next move/clue will come from those PAC/B12 meetings and I won’t be surprised if we don’t see at least Colorado, Utah and Arizona schools make a move.

Oregon and Washington will wait out the B1G but I don’t see movement there without ND.

I’m betting we see the B12 absorb some of the PAC, the ACC/ND deal surviving this round and no one else being added to the P2 at this time. All of this won’t happen until 2025 so some of the bigger names like Oregon, Washington and Stanford are going to remain pretty silent and not rush into anything until they know for sure the B1G isn’t an option. No one knows when that would happen so it could be two years.

Sounds legit to me. If I'm the Big 12 I don't really want to add schools that MIGHT leave for the B1G the next time the tree is shaken. So I'd stick with just the four you mentioned.

 

[Volbound1700]

I was talking about Championship games..

My bad. I stand corrected. Yeah, only Ohio State has made an appearance since 1997 when Michigan won a half a title. In the 1990s, Michigan had that half title and Penn State had a title.

 

[Deep Creek]

They weren't in the B1G at the time.

Outside the SEC, there really hasn't been enough "variety" in either the BCS or CFP era...IMO. At least the SEC has sent more than one of two teams. B1G finally got a 3rd one last year with Michigan. But the ACC, PAC 12 and Big 12 with 2,2, and 1 respectively have been blah. And I don't blame Clem, FSU, Oregon, Washington and Oklahoma, I blame their conference mates for not stepping up.

While the best team will probably still win it all, going to 8 or 12 MIGHT help with some variety.

Michigan State went to the Playoff one year and got slammed in first game by Alabama. So B1G has had another team made it. However, no one from the B1G except Ohio State has shown that they can keep up with the Alabamas, Georgis, LSUs, Clemsons of the world.

That's why I said "B1G finally got a 3rd one last year with Michigan." Ohio State, Michigan State and then Michigan last year.

 

[Deep Creek]

I am more inclined to believe most of them want a better deal than only getting half the money that the two bigs teams do for 12 more years. That alone makes me think any team that believes they have a chance and a place to land would go, even to the big12 if the money is significantly better, and we don't know what it will wind up being there.

The comments on this thread alone account for 7-8 teams getting poached and that isn't even counting the big12 getting any. Not that anyone on here knows WTF they're talking about, but that's not the point.

ACC isn't happy with their shit deal when other conferences are raking in twice the money per team annually. I don't think the GOR will last to 2035, it can be voted down if enough schools want out. They can read the writing on the wall as well as us, so what's the incentive to make less than half of what Rutgers makes for 12 more years?

Either that or add another team and renegotiate the contract?

BTW, the fans of GT want out. The powers at the school don't, and would prefer us to not have athletics at all.

I can't see the Big 12 or the ACC running away from the other in regards to revenue per school. Neither will approach the B1G or SEC but I would think the two will look similar. JMO.

 

[Deep Creek]

you would have thought that the conferences would have jumped at the CFP expansion.. Sankey even told them they should, but they got their feelings hurt when UT/ou going to the SEC was leaked.

Now more than ever, those other conferences that decided to follow the BiG lead in saying no, desperately want it now.. But it's too late

Big 12 was willing to expand to 12 weren't they? Only ACC, PAC and B1G were against it. No?

 

[Volbound1700]

Big 12 was willing to expand to 12 weren't they? Only ACC, PAC and B1G were against it. No?

I think Big12 abstained. (Didn't vote either way).

 

[rfjeff9]

I can't see the Big 12 or the ACC running away from the other in regards to revenue per school. Neither will approach the B1G or SEC but I would think the two will look similar. JMO.

You get what you're worth. That's why ACC has a crap deal.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Wild Turkey, added some minor comments above.

Here is the thing with ND:

1. They aren't actually going to join the ACC unless they have to because they are eating their cake and keeping it too.
2. They don't have to do anything because anyone will take them at any point so from their perspective the move would be 100% financial. The only thing that would change that is if they are left out of a playoff system which isn't likely anytime soon.
3. The odds of the SEC being in contention for ND is extremely low as they aren't going to give up the USC, Navy and Stanford games if they don't have to and the B1G gives them access to Michigan and Michigan State which have been rivals in the past.

The only interesting thing I've seen lately that has changed my thinking is that UNC might prefer the B1G over the SEC if the ACC folds. I think the fanbase would overwhelmingly want the SEC but the administration seems to lean heavily to the B1G for academic reasons. One thing is for sure the ACC is UNC's league so they aren't going to do anything unless there is no other choice.

When this thing is over (which could be in 2036) I think we see the SEC pick up:

FSU
Miami
VT
Clemson

I had it at UNC, Duke, VT and either Clemson/FSU/Miami but if the SEC can't get UNC they won't take Duke but we might see NC State as the 4th choice to get in the state of NC but the truth is the SEC will have to go with bigger names to counterr the B1G move.

- ND is the biggest get on the board
- UNC is the second but the margin is between them and ND is wide

I still think the B1G would rather go after the ACC schools but you could see a situation where they go after some more of the PAC but I'm not convinced that makes a lot of sense for them. What does make sense is ND, UNC, Duke, GT and Virginia but someone on that list will get left out. ND might also push to get Stanford (the SEC is not going to add a PAC team) so that would leave one or two of the ACC schools out.

I would be shocked beyond belief if ND joined the SEC as I don't think that is even a remote possibility because they will have more attractive options open to them.

As it stands right now to kill the ACC GOR it will take 8 votes and ND doesn't count so that is 9 schools moving and the numbers at that point get complex. Add in that UNC is going to fight it to the bitter end and odds point to the ACC surviving for now.