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cant imagine its toasty in Utah or colorado in November either
USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!
- Thread starter MAIZEandBLUE09
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trojanfan12
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Don't know how accurate it is, but from what I've been hearing, there really isn't much he can do to stop it. He's just mad that he had to find out the same way everyone else did.
trojanfan12
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And yet, they are wanted by another conference and Oregon isn't.
trojanfan12
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Definitely not. lol
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proximity
trojanfan12
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Yeah, that has to be the only reason that zero other conferences want them including the B1G.
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The B1G is going to sign a one billion dollar deal with Fox. No chance they will be on NBC. With OU and Texas out the Big 12 -- I honestly don't know how much they will help ND either.
ND is reportedly asking for $75 million a year to stay independent -- I just do not see how that is even remotely possible, as last year, they ranked below Michigan State in the average number of viewers and slightly ahead of Oregon. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
What are you thoughts on some of the rivalry games and or other bigger programs ND have played in the SEC or B1G, now that they are having the "super conferences"? I tend to believe those schools (USC, OU, Texas, OSU, Georgia, Bama, UM, MSU, PSU, etc.) will shy away from continuing those type of games in their OOC, as their SOS will be way up their even without that type of game, as they all have a bunch of new high profile matchups in their own conference.
What will ND do if they end up playing a schedule filled with teams left over?
Going to be interesting to see how this all plays out. I know ND wants to stay independent, but if their SOS isn't close to so many other teams in the super conferences -- they could get left out on the CFP and I know that isn't what they want.
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That's funny but we all know the B12 will take Oregon.
I honestly think what happens is that AZ, ASU and Utah announce they are moving to the B12 and then Colorado will ask super quick as well and the PAC folds. Washington and Oregon wait it out (because they can hope the B1G opens up and really nothing will happen next year) but eventually, they will join as well.
That will take them to 18 which is not a great number to spit into division but it could be worse.
I just don't see any of the B12 teams moving to the PAC because there won't be more money and it will be most costly to travel. Let's face it there is NO one worth adding on the West Coast at this point so Oregon and Washington can't salvage the PAC. This is just another really bad decision on the PAC's part because they could have gone after some B12 schools when Texas and Oklahoma left and flipped the script. Heck UT and OU could be members of the PAC right now if they could have struck a deal and would be looking at a pretty nice network payday.
I keep hearing crap about Washington and Oregon potentially to the ACC but that makes zero sense and after 2036 they will just end up in the same boat.
I could be massively wrong but I just don't see the PAC surviving after 2025.
Good points.
I also think that ND is finding out just how much they can get.
If it isn't really enough, what are their options really.?? To just get left behind money wise ??
I don't think you are wrong.
People will look back to the OU/Texas news and wonder why they didn't act more quickly when they had a chance.
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I wouldn't bet against ND getting the money because they still draw big ratings for their bigger games. I don't see a scenerio where teams in the B1G or SEC would stop playing the OOC. They can pretty much call anyone they want a game with and get it.
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1) My stance is having something is better than nothing in regards to a conference joining NBC. It would hopefully make the network invest a little more resources into CFB, which can only in turn help the ND publicity. I was hoping it would be the B1G, similar to what the ESPN package is, but I doubt it will be that.
2) I don't see the harm in letting it be known what it will keep to have ND on NBC. We played one of the weakest home schedules I can remember last year.
3) As for the schedule moving forward, if ND stays independent, it all depends on how many league games those conferences play. If it's 9, I feel pretty confident the Michigan, Michigan States, and Purdue's of the world would still schedule ND. USC has already stated they are keeping the annual game with ND. So their schedule shouldn't be impacted that much if teams play 9 league games. You'll only need to fill 4 games with USC, Navy and Stanford + the ACC 5.
4) If the CFP eventually moves to 12, ND is essentially assured a spot with 10 wins, so I'm not too concerned with SoS.
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oregon's value to the Big 10 vs the value to the Big XII are different things. as well as to the Pac 10
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The 75 million might be a problem though the more I think about it because when are saying the B1G and SEC are worth 100 million a school for all sports. The problem is that NBC only owns ND's home games and it won't include any other sports. We go on and on about how the other sports aren't worth anything but that simply is not true because they provide the network with thousands of hours of fresh live programming that they need to fill dead space. For example, NBC couldn't televise an ND basketball game if they wanted to.
At least when a network does a deal with the SEC they get the majority of games from teams like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and aTm if it is at home or away. In other words, they have the potential to get Alabama 10 games a year.
So NBC would be committing to pay ND 12.5 million for their home games which not all of them are blockbusters. Take pre-season games played at a neutral site where teams are typically paid around 5 million each to participate and those games are almost guaranteed to get 4 million views. So that means NBC would be paying 12.5 million to air ND vs Boston College when Alabama vs USC is costing 10 million.
What NBC is trying to do is pick up another conference so they can spread out some of the production costs and make the expense side better through bulk buys and ad sells. People want to believe a school has a 100 million dollar value but that isn't the case because that value is created through synergies with other schools and leveraging combined fans as a base. They also feed this content into other mediums like websites and pick up additional revenue and it is tough to do that with one school. NBC wants to combine ND with another conference to get revenue strength and opportunities through numbers.
NBC wants this deal but are 6 home ND games worth 75 million when other networks are getting Bama, Ohio State, Texas, OU, Georgia, etc for 10 games a year plus basketball for 100 million.
This has been my thinking all along.
And why would ND put out the 'real' number right off the bat
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Notre Dame seems to be your fly in the ointment when we do analysis. Notre Dame seems very willing to leave money on the table to stay Independent. It does not make sense from a Financial perspective but it is a lesson that I learned from law school. There was a famous Common Law case (@WhosYourDawggy might remember the name) about a man killing a fox on another person's land. The owner of the land claimed the fox was his and the two went back and forth going all of the way to the Higher Courts and spending tons of $$$ over this stupid fox. It was all related to just a petty hatred for each other.
$$$$ drives most people but not everyone. Notre Dame asks for $ 75 Million. If NBC agrees, I think Notre Dame stays independent.
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I totally disagree with this. Those are the very schools that have been loading up on great OOC. I believe it was all done knowing that the CFP will expand to 12 in 2026. We really haven't gotten to super conferences ... SEC just added 2, B1G added 2.
Also, all of this big money is predicated on large eyeball games. Those are the teams that can provide those with OOC games.
While the OU and TX games will become IC, UGA ahs the following scheduled:
- Clemson 5 times
- OU
- TX
- FSU
- UCLA
- tOSU
- Louisville
- NCSU
- Oregon
The schools on your list are the ones scheduling better OOC.
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I actually think ND will agree to a lower number but not much less. You hit the nail on the head with two points:
1. ND floated the number - To me that says a lot and that there is an internal discussion going on that change is on the horizon and ND wants a confirmed number to do a full analysis. Surprised the number was made public but that is probably a sign things are moving quicker than we believed.
2. ND values their independence and would prefer not to be in a conference unless they don't have a choice but we may be seeing that they feel the pressure of possibly not having a choice.
ND is EVERYONE's fly in the ointment right now and the lynchpin of what happens next. Would be crazy if they are the ones that decide to challenge the ACC agreement first. This is the story to follow.
Yes
But I could see Oklahoma pulling back on the OOC some
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It is only football. We know exactly how much the other sports are worth - just look at ND's distribution from the ACC. It is just for non-football sports. No need for conjecture, we know that ND gets a 1/5th share ... 20%. So apply that to the SEC and know that all the other sports are worth about 20% of what they get.