USC and UCLA planning to leave for B10 by 2024!

WhosYourDawggy said:
Here are the numbers for 2021 and from a quick glance, this is consistent with 2019, 18 and before.

  1. Ohio State — 5.22M
  2. Michigan — 4.74M
  3. Alabama — 4.64M
  4. Penn State — 3.87M
  5. Georgia — 3.61M
  6. Oklahoma — 3.46M
  7. Auburn — 3.22M
  8. Michigan State — 2.89M
  9. Notre Dame — 2.84M
  10. Oregon — 2.57M
  11. Wisconsin — 2.41M
  12. Nebraska — 2.29M
  13. Texas — 2.26M
  14. Florida — 2.21M
  15. Arkansas — 2.03M
Those are good numbers, but you aren't at a 4 million a game average.
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2019 was 3.62 and 2018 was 3.70. Close to 4 and that's with every game basically accounted for.
 
ericd7633 said:
1) I realize. I was just playing hypothetical scenarios.

2) 2021 was a very weak home schedule, and probably not a true indicator of what can be reached from a rating perspective. USC was awful, UNC had a down year, and the Navy and GT games were over from the start. 2026 has an ND "home" game with Wisconsin(Lambeau Field), which will be broadcast on NBC if they get the rights, and MSU. UVA, UL and Cuse are the other scheduled home games as of now. I'd expect Stanford to be added, and another home game(likely G5). It's also why it's important for someone else to come on board, from a promotion perspective. The ND/Wisconsin game drew 5.4 million, ND/UVA drew 3.3 and ND/Stanford drew 2.7. The latter two were against bad team's and still drew well because they get promotion throughout the week/day. And then you mentioned the ND/FSU game(helps that it was a stand-alone)

Will ND get 75 million? Probably not, but 60 is well within reach.
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Sixty is a no brainer.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
I understand how college football scheduling works. Let me explain why I don't think this will happen. Those games started getting scheduled about the same time. It was about 3 years ago. I noticed at that time that Smart indicated in an interview he was confident in CFP expansion. I posted at the time that it was clear to the teams that with expansion SOS mattered, and getting an early season tough game wouldn't keep you out of the CFP. Then everyone started scheduling those games. As we found out later, the conferences knew that they had a committee working on expansion.

The TV contracts want big game inventory more than anything. The top teams can afford a tough OOC loss and still get in.

There are two things that could change my mind:

- Perhaps marginal teams - those 8-20 - can't afford a loss. Maybe they won't schedule while the top 1-6/8 will.

- If there aren't automatic qualifiers. I still think we get AQs, but with the SEC and B1G way ahead of the other conferences, they will want more of their teams in. They might insist on top12 teams, regardless of conference. I know the SEC will start negotiations with that. They may use it for leverage to get everything else they want, but they are going to start and say no AQs. If you get no AQs, then the losses will matter.
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I guess it will depend on how the conferences are set up. If Georgia, Bama, LSU, etc. are going 3, 4, 5+ years between cross division games with Texas and OU, like some teams in the SEC do right now -- then yeah -- I can see teams still playing a handful of elite OOC games. I can't remember the team today in the SEC i read about, but they have an 8 year period where they don't play a team in their own conference.

If the goal is to set up these big time games and OU and Texas are going to be facing Georgia, Bama, etc. on a regular to semi-regular basis -- IMO, there is no chance those schools are going to schedule even more elite teams in OOC. Same goes for teams in the B1G if USC ends up a top 10 type team -- what is the draw for schools like UM, PSU, OSU, MSU, etc. to schedule even more elite OOC teams?

Those two conferences will already dominate SOS with just their conference play -- so adding to it in OOC play doesn't really make any sense for them. They don't need the games. I think the premiere matchups with the additions of Texas, OU and USC will replace many of those games, as every game with those teams against top teams in the SEC and B1G will be 4+ million viewer games and the games with OSU, Michigan, Bama, who already average around 5 million viewers will draw 7-8+ million viewers.

Of course, it is just my opinion. Notre Dame NEEDS the games to get the viewers. The teams in the SEC and B1G don't need the games, as they have a ton of matchups that will bring 4+ million viewers within their conferences, especially with the addition of the teams added.
 
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Wild Turkey said:
I will literally wet my pants laughing if Stanford gets the invite and Oregon gets jilted again.
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It wouldn't surprise me in the least if that happened. The B1G has a hard on for the academics. Stanford is a premiere academic institution. I could easily see the B1G offering Stanford over Oregon. The academic part is the only thing holding Oregon back from the B1G, IMO.

They turned a blind eye to Nebraska and their academics when we took them in, as they are a blue blood, but Oregon isn't bringing anything to the table that the B1G doesn't already have.
 
Goldbug said:
If you ever studied Ancient Rome you will notice the amazing similarities between Gavin Newsom and Lucius Sergius Catalina. Marcus Tullius Cicero finally put the kibosh on Catalina but it was a close run thing. Catalina was extremely handsome, super intelligent and absolutely determined to either rule Rome or destroy it. He would stoop to anything to accomplish what he wanted and deal with the worst scum of society so long as they would be his ally. Same thing with Newsom. I don't want to see USC left hanging if UCLA gets the word that leaving the PAC 12 will impact their appropriations immensely. It would put the Trojans in an impossible situation. Newsom would do it in a heartbeat if there were more people on the side of keeping USC and UCLA tethered to the PAC 12 than letting them go. Dude's a snake, man.
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I don't think UCLA not going would effect USC going. I don't see the B1G giving up the LA market. If it did, I wouldn't be surprised if USC went independent. They've been pissed at the pac for years.
 
Goldbug said:
Which would cause all kinds of problems in another state. Newsom wouldn't care. But if USC had to go to the B1G with an out of state partner is would suck big time for them. They want a partner from across town, not hundreds of miles away. It wouldn't be an easy-peasy situation like you're making it out to be.
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I don't think it would bother USC all that much.
 
ericd7633 said:
2019 was 3.62 and 2018 was 3.70. Close to 4 and that's with every game basically accounted for.
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Here are the 2019 numbers to put context to it:

4.17​
Bowl
3.21​
Stanford
1.66​
BC
1.56​
Navy
2.95​
VT
6.75​
UM
3.16​
USC
1.28​
BGSU
2.82​
UVA
9.29​
UGA
1.5​
NM
5.6​
Louisville

Almost 36% of your viewership numbers were in two games, Michigan and UGA.

I am not trying to beat a dead horse ... you have good viewership numbers compared to everyone else left. But you said:

On average, you'll probably expect to get around 4 million viewers/game. Some games you'll see a massive rating(10+ million viewers for Clem/ND in 2020) and others you'll see a lower rating(GT/ND 2021).

You don't get 4 million on average, and the numbers are skewed by two big games with teams that have 2nd and 5th most viewers.

And you don't get 10 million at all, which is fine because few do - there were only
- 2 in 2021
- 3 in 2019 (UGA v. ND almost got there)
- 4 in 2018
- 3 in 2017

None of those were ND. They were all some combo of tOSU/UM, UA/AU, UA/LSU, OU/TX. 2020 numbers were skewed by the all ACC schedule and Covid numbers so you can't consider them as they are aberrations, outliers.

You aren't going to go from $22 million to $60 or $75 million with those numbers, especially when you don't get the away game money from NBC.

But this is why you would be so valuable to the B1G or the SEC (not that you would go to the SEC). All the big numbers are from teams in those two conferences or teams that will be in those two conferences:

The 2021 “4 million club”​

Here are all of the games that broke 4 million viewers this season:
  1. Ohio State at Michigan — 15.89M
  2. Alabama at Auburn — 10.37M
  3. Michigan at Michigan State — 9.29M
  4. Georgia at Clemson — 8.87M
  5. Alabama at Texas A&M — 8.33M
  6. Alabama at Florida — 7.86M
  7. Notre Dame at Florida State — 7.75M
  8. Oregon at Ohio State — 7.73M
  9. Auburn at Penn State — 7.61M
  10. Army vs. Navy — 7.57M
  11. Penn State at Ohio State — 7.05M
  12. Penn State at Iowa — 6.90M
  13. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State — 6.49M
  14. Kentucky at Georgia — 6.37M
  15. Ohio State at Minnesota — 6.30M
  16. Georgia at Florida — 6.12M
  17. Michigan at Penn State — 5.942M
  18. Oklahoma at Texas — 5.940M
  19. Georgia at Tennessee — 5.78M
  20. Alabama at Miami — 5.67M
  21. Arkansas at Alabama — 5.46M
  22. Penn State at Wisconsin — 5.41M
  23. Notre Dame at Wisconsin — 5.37M
  24. Ohio State at Nebraska — 5.33M
  25. Michigan State at Ohio State — 5.29M
  26. Wisconsin at Minnesota — 5.05M
  27. LSU at Alabama — 5.00M
  28. Oregon at Utah — 4.82M
  29. Mississippi at Alabama — 4.79M
  30. Washington at Michigan — 4.75M
  31. Purdue at Ohio State — 4.74M
  32. Tennessee at Alabama — 4.68M
  33. Michigan at Nebraska — 4.63M
  34. Georgia at Auburn — 4.58M
  35. Texas A&M at Colorado — 4.50M
  36. West Virginia at Oklahoma —4.50M
  37. Michigan State at Purdue — 4.40M
  38. Michigan at Wisconsin — 4.31M
  39. Nebraska at Oklahoma — 4.21M
  40. Texas A&M at Arkansas — 4.07M
  41. Indiana at Penn State — 4.00M
There were 34 teams that played in at least one game that cracked 4 million viewers:
8— Alabama
7 — Ohio State
6 — Michigan, Penn State
5 — Georgia
4 — Oklahoma, Wisconsin
3 — Auburn, Michigan State, Nebraska, Texas A&M
2 — Arkansas, Florida, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oregon, Purdue, Tennessee
1 — Army, Clemson, Colorado, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Miami, Mississippi, Navy, Oklahoma State, Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia

So, your viewership is good to great, but not elite. Here is the predicament you are in ... there are three ways to make money ... market, viewership, and CFP. As an independent market doesn't apply; viewership is good to great, not elite; and CFP is really good as you most often get into the CFP. If you go into the B1G your market is worth more as you would contribute to the BTN; your viewership would go way up to elite playing the likes of UM, PSU, tOSU, and USC; but your CFP would likely go down as you probably won't make the CFP as often. But still the most attractive target left, by a long shot. You are in an enviable position. Just ask Oregon.

At the end of the day, with an NBC contract of $50 million, plus $12 million from the ACC, that puts them behind $40 million per year. Is independence worth that?
 
trojanfan12 said:
I don't think UCLA not going would effect USC going. I don't see the B1G giving up the LA market. If it did, I wouldn't be surprised if USC went independent. They've been pissed at the pac for years.
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You're going to be B1G. The question is will it eventually be someone else other than UCLA that goes with you. Frankly, if I were the B1G I'd want Stanford University instead of the Bruins. It's a great university with a tremendous alumni.
 
NewPhoneWhoDis said:
I guess it will depend on how the conferences are set up. If Georgia, Bama, LSU, etc. are going 3, 4, 5+ years between cross division games with Texas and OU, like some teams in the SEC do right now -- then yeah -- I can see teams still playing a handful of elite OOC games. I can't remember the team today in the SEC i read about, but they have an 8 year period where they don't play a team in their own conference.

If the goal is to set up these big time games and OU and Texas are going to be facing Georgia, Bama, etc. on a regular to semi-regular basis -- IMO, there is no chance those schools are going to schedule even more elite teams in OOC. Same goes for teams in the B1G if USC ends up a top 10 type team -- what is the draw for schools like UM, PSU, OSU, MSU, etc. to schedule even more elite OOC teams?

Those two conferences will already dominate SOS with just their conference play -- so adding to it in OOC play doesn't really make any sense for them. They don't need the games. I think the premiere matchups with the additions of Texas, OU and USC will replace many of those games, as every game with those teams against top teams in the SEC and B1G will be 4+ million viewer games and the games with OSU, Michigan, Bama, who already average around 5 million viewers will draw 7-8+ million viewers.

Of course, it is just my opinion. Notre Dame NEEDS the games to get the viewers. The teams in the SEC and B1G don't need the games, as they have a ton of matchups that will bring 4+ million viewers within their conferences, especially with the addition of the teams added.
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I get your argument and maybe I am wrong. UGA's plan for aggressive scheduling was before we brought in OU and TX, and before we are going to a 9 game IC schedule. I just know that fans love the OOC games. They draw big numbers. With 12 teams, a team like UGA could lose a game in the SEC and one OOC and still get into the CFP. Especially if there are no AQs. We'll see ... you could be 100% right.
 
Goldbug said:
You're going to be B1G. The question is will it eventually be someone else other than UCLA that goes with you. Frankly, if I were the B1G I'd want Stanford University instead of the Bruins. It's a great university with a tremendous alumni.
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Stanford would be a great add for the B1G because of their academics. Athletically, they'd be another Northwestern. UCLA would be good because it gives the B1G all of the LA market and raises their basketball profile.

In short, I don't think the B1G could go wrong with either.
 
outofyourmind said:
I don't think he can directly, but it's the back channels that might be concerning
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I don't know what back channels he could use. USC isn't beholden to the state, so there's nothing for him to threaten them with and no money for him to take away.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Here are the 2019 numbers to put context to it:

4.17​
Bowl
3.21​
Stanford
1.66​
BC
1.56​
Navy
2.95​
VT
6.75​
UM
3.16​
USC
1.28​
BGSU
2.82​
UVA
9.29​
UGA
1.5​
NM
5.6​
Louisville

Almost 36% of your viewership numbers were in two games, Michigan and UGA.

I am not trying to beat a dead horse ... you have good viewership numbers compared to everyone else left. But you said:

On average, you'll probably expect to get around 4 million viewers/game. Some games you'll see a massive rating(10+ million viewers for Clem/ND in 2020) and others you'll see a lower rating(GT/ND 2021).

You don't get 4 million on average, and the numbers are skewed by two big games with teams that have 2nd and 5th most viewers.

And you don't get 10 million at all, which is fine because few do - there were only
- 2 in 2021
- 3 in 2019 (UGA v. ND almost got there)
- 4 in 2018
- 3 in 2017

None of those were ND. They were all some combo of tOSU/UM, UA/AU, UA/LSU, OU/TX. 2020 numbers were skewed by the all ACC schedule and Covid numbers so you can't consider them as they are aberrations, outliers.

You aren't going to go from $22 million to $60 or $75 million with those numbers, especially when you don't get the away game money from NBC.

But this is why you would be so valuable to the B1G or the SEC (not that you would go to the SEC). All the big numbers are from teams in those two conferences or teams that will be in those two conferences:

The 2021 “4 million club”​

Here are all of the games that broke 4 million viewers this season:
  1. Ohio State at Michigan — 15.89M
  2. Alabama at Auburn — 10.37M
  3. Michigan at Michigan State — 9.29M
  4. Georgia at Clemson — 8.87M
  5. Alabama at Texas A&M — 8.33M
  6. Alabama at Florida — 7.86M
  7. Notre Dame at Florida State — 7.75M
  8. Oregon at Ohio State — 7.73M
  9. Auburn at Penn State — 7.61M
  10. Army vs. Navy — 7.57M
  11. Penn State at Ohio State — 7.05M
  12. Penn State at Iowa — 6.90M
  13. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State — 6.49M
  14. Kentucky at Georgia — 6.37M
  15. Ohio State at Minnesota — 6.30M
  16. Georgia at Florida — 6.12M
  17. Michigan at Penn State — 5.942M
  18. Oklahoma at Texas — 5.940M
  19. Georgia at Tennessee — 5.78M
  20. Alabama at Miami — 5.67M
  21. Arkansas at Alabama — 5.46M
  22. Penn State at Wisconsin — 5.41M
  23. Notre Dame at Wisconsin — 5.37M
  24. Ohio State at Nebraska — 5.33M
  25. Michigan State at Ohio State — 5.29M
  26. Wisconsin at Minnesota — 5.05M
  27. LSU at Alabama — 5.00M
  28. Oregon at Utah — 4.82M
  29. Mississippi at Alabama — 4.79M
  30. Washington at Michigan — 4.75M
  31. Purdue at Ohio State — 4.74M
  32. Tennessee at Alabama — 4.68M
  33. Michigan at Nebraska — 4.63M
  34. Georgia at Auburn — 4.58M
  35. Texas A&M at Colorado — 4.50M
  36. West Virginia at Oklahoma —4.50M
  37. Michigan State at Purdue — 4.40M
  38. Michigan at Wisconsin — 4.31M
  39. Nebraska at Oklahoma — 4.21M
  40. Texas A&M at Arkansas — 4.07M
  41. Indiana at Penn State — 4.00M
There were 34 teams that played in at least one game that cracked 4 million viewers:
8— Alabama
7 — Ohio State
6 — Michigan, Penn State
5 — Georgia
4 — Oklahoma, Wisconsin
3 — Auburn, Michigan State, Nebraska, Texas A&M
2 — Arkansas, Florida, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Oregon, Purdue, Tennessee
1 — Army, Clemson, Colorado, Florida State, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Miami, Mississippi, Navy, Oklahoma State, Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia

So, your viewership is good to great, but not elite. Here is the predicament you are in ... there are three ways to make money ... market, viewership, and CFP. As an independent market doesn't apply; viewership is good to great, not elite; and CFP is really good as you most often get into the CFP. If you go into the B1G your market is worth more as you would contribute to the BTN; your viewership would go way up to elite playing the likes of UM, PSU, tOSU, and USC; but your CFP would likely go down as you probably won't make the CFP as often. But still the most attractive target left, by a long shot. You are in an enviable position. Just ask Oregon.

At the end of the day, with an NBC contract of $50 million, plus $12 million from the ACC, that puts them behind $40 million per year. Is independence worth that?
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So ND was, on avg, short by 300K in 2018 and 380K of 4 million. That's certainly "around" 4 million on avg. I'm admitting our 2021 numbers were low, lower than normal when you look at 2017-2020, but we played a pretty crappy schedule considering what we normally do. In 2015 we avg 4.23 million viewers. In 2016 it was 3.60 million, so just slightly short of 4 million.

Will we get 75, probably not, doesn't hurt to ask. If they come down off that to like 55-60, ND will take that to stay independent, if conferences stay at a 9 game league schedule.
 
michaeljordan_fan said:
When was the last time you spent significant time in San Francisco?
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Good point.

It was all in good fun anyways. I wasn't serious with the Socialist League stuff, I just wanted to rib Oregon fans.
 
Volbound1700 said:
Good point.

It was all in good fun anyways. I wasn't serious with the Socialist League stuff, I just wanted to rib Oregon fans.
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It was pretty clear you hadn't. Wanted to make sure everyone else knew you were running your mouth on something you had no knowledge of.
 
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