I posted this over at Rivals:
Keep an open mind and read through this. I'd like to think I've thought of most objections. What do you say?
Cliffs on what the expansion will look like
- There will be a committee.
- There will be 12 teams.
- The top 6 conference champions (CCs) are automatically qualified (AQs). This can be 5 P5s, plus 1 G5, or it could be 4 P5s and 2 G5s. But, after conference championship week (CCW) the top 6 ranked CCs are in.
- Then the next 6 ranked teams are in.
- The top 4 ranked CCs get a bye.
- The next 4 ranked teams (5-8) will host home games against teams ranked 9-12. So you will get 5 v. 12, 6 v. 11, 7 v. 10, and 8 v. 9. If a team wants, they can host the game at an indoor stadium instead of their home field. Think of those in the quarter-finals
- The quarter finals will be 1 v. winner of 8/9, 2 v. 7/10, 3 v. 6/11, and then 4 v. 5/12. There has been some indication that they won't reseed. For example, let's say that 8 beats 9, but 10, 11, and 12 all win. Shouldn't the no. 1 team get to play the 12th ranked team and not the 8th ranked team? Reseeding typically doesn't happen in playoffs in other sports, but let's see if it does.
- The quarter-finals would likely be played at 4 of the NY6 Bowls.
- The semi-finals would be played at the other 2 NY6 bowls.
- The NC game would be bid out as it is now.
What are the main issues left to be resolved?
- Who will broadcast it? I think you can count on ESPN, Fox, and others. The success of the B1G with their TV contract, plus the way the pro sports all do multiple media partners means this is a given.
- What about the Rose Bowl which always wants to play on January 1? Personally, they can kiss my ...
- How is the money divided?
- How do they make sure player safety is covered in that there will be 16 games, the possibility of a team playing 17?
- When will it take place? If the schedule isn't changed, it would be the first set of games on the second weekend of December. Then Finals week, and then quarter finals around January 1, semis around January 8, and then the NC around January 15. This does pose some conflicts with the Army/Navy game in December, and the NFL in January. Those have to be worked out. Or, they could start the season in what is now called week 0, with Conference Championships over Thanksgiving weekend, and then round 1 the first week of December. Then depending on the bowls' involvement, you might do the quarters the second week of December. I have to think all that through. You have the NFL to consider, and then there's the idea that the month break is good or bad for teams.
Looking at the takes on why this is a bad thing, let's review some of the takes here (this was on Rivals):
- This will definitely make the regular season less meaningful.
- In the old days "pre BCS and even during the BCS", every game was hugely important during the season. Lose one in September and 99% of the time championship aspirations went "poof". Now, those upsets we love to see of top 10 teams will never be as impactful. Sudden death had more drama.
- So goodbye to everything that makes college football so much better than the NFL.
I call this the "dilution" argument, or "less meaningful regular season" argument. I believe it's the exact opposite. I believe that college football, for the most part, hasn't been nearly as exciting as it could be. Why is that? Because throughout the history of college football, a single loss ends your chance of being declared the national champ or winning the national championship. So, the SEC and the ACC play 8-game IC schedules and play 3 cupcakes to minimize losses. We play teams every 6 years in our conference. Home schedules suck. If you want a regular season that means something, make it so that a single loss doesn't end your season. When that happens, guess what else happens? The SEC goes to a 9-game IC schedule, and teams start scheduling great OOC games like tOSU, FSU, TX, OU, UCLA, Clemson, etc. There is a reason that OOC schedules blew up starting in or around 2026 ... people saw the expansion coming after the CFP contract expired and said once we expand, we can afford to play Clemson and tOSU and other great OOC. Even if we lose, we have a shot to get in by winning the conference or having a good enough schedule to get in as an at-large team. If expansion wasn't coming, then I am not sure that OU and TX come into the SEC, and I know we wouldn't be playing LSU, Bama, TAMU, OU, and TX every other year. Every other year, 3 times as often as we do now. How's that for meaningful regular season games? What we call a great regular season today - and it is a lot of fun - pales in comparison to what will have and that is 100% due to expansion so that one loss doesn't kill your chances.
Look at the SEC schedule and forget the OOC games we will play. Instead of playing Vandy, UK, and Missouri each year, we will get AU, UF, and USCjr every year, and rotate everyone else every other year. That means we will play Bama, LSU, OU, TX, ATM, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and the rest in some type of rotating schedule that guarantees about 6 premiere games per year. Not 1 or 2. Right now the SEC is lucky to have 2 premiere games on any given weekend. Now we will get 4 or games like that per week.
Finally, the argument that this makes for a less meaningful regular season ignores that for almost all schools the regular season is meaningless before it even starts. After the first week, 66 teams are eliminated. By the end of September, 90% of the teams in CFB are eliminated from the CFP. By the end of October, you are down to 4 - 6 teams. That means that the bulk of the regular season games are meaningless. That's what I call a terrible regular season. The minute that the BCS era began and focus turned more to the national champ than, say, the winner of the conferences and the top bowls, the regular season games became more and more irrelevant. With a 12-team playoff, 20-30 (25%) teams will be in the hunt for one of the 12 slots. That makes the regular season way more relevant than it is now. And, because the 12-team CFP has byes to play for, and home field advantage to play for, it makes the regular season games and conference championships more important not less. So we have more teams in all season long, and far more to play for up until the end. That's a feature, not a bug.
- Too many teams are getting in
People not wanting more great college football seems strange for people on boards that are, checks notes, about college football. Will there be blowouts, sure. But not as many as you believe because the people in charge are smart and know that seeding 1 v 16 doesn't work in CFB. So, we will get 5 v. 12, 6 v. 11, 7 v. 10, and 8 v. 9, at home fields. Those will more likely be competitive games, and if that atmosphere doesn't excite you, I'd argue you aren't a true CFB fan. If things go to chalk, you will then get 1 v. 8, 2 v. 7, 3 v. 6, and 4 v. 5. I'd bet at least 2 of those will be competitive games. So we are going to get 11 games instead of 3, over 4 weekends not 2, with 4 games on home fields, and somehow that's a bad thing. Insult to injury - UGA would have been in all 12 team CFPs since 2017
- Why AQs?
- We don't need byes.
- Boo. I hate the idea of wild cards. Terrible.
- I liked 8.
- So participation trophies have been approved for college football. How sweet.
- A lot of 1-4, 2-3 matchups havent been good.
- I personally agree. Some of these 1-12, 2-11, 3-10 matchups are going to be less than desirable imo.
- 12 seems a bit much but I won’t complain, even though 8 would make more sense to me.
- I would have thought 8 was plenty. Look for at least 3 SEC teams to be in final 6 every year.
- 12 teams is way too much fat. 6-8 is ideal.
- I’ve heard there will be a bye for possibly the top 4 teams. Must be an incentive to compete and finish at the top.
- I'd imagine with it being 12, the top 4 may have a bye. But if not, yeah those matchups will be pretty dumb.
- Hoping 1-4 get byes and 5-12 play. That would be much better than 1 vs 12 etc
You have to have AQs for a couple of reasons. First, for the overall health of the game, it makes no sense to eliminate entire segments of the fanbases. Whether they have a chance or not. You want every fanbase to feel that they have a path to get into the CFP. Second, it may, and I say may drive some parity. If recruits only think they can get to the CFP by going to an SEC school, that's not good for the general health of the sport. Perhaps this will spread the talent around a little. Finally, do we really know that the PAC sucks? In any given year, it might be that one conference is way better than the others. But with 132 schools we can't play cross-conference to know that for sure. This makes sure that the top 6 conference champs will have a chance to prove they belong.
Once you decide you want AQs, 8 doesn't work. With 6 AQs, that leaves only 2 at-large/wildcard teams. No way the SEC was going to go from 4 at-large to 2. That's what 8 would have done. Also, 8 doesn't give you byes, and you have to have the byes. If you don't have byes, then teams that get into the CFP that didn't play in a CCG have an advantage. Think of 2017 when Bama didn't get into the SECCG but won the natty. We wouldn't want them getting in with a week off. By giving byes to the top 4 conference champs, a team like 2017 Bama and even 2021 UGA have to work harder for not getting into the CCG, or not winning it. That is a good thing.
The byes also work because they let you match up the 5-12 teams in the first round. Those games will be far more competitive than if you let the best play the worst. Think of the UGA v. Cincinnati Peach Bowl, or the Baylor v. Oklahoma State game last year. Those would be the kinds of games you are going to get in the first round and they will be a blast to watch, especially being on campus.
The byes and the home team hosting the first round are also genius because they provide even more regular season incentives. For those who say the regular season doesn't matter, or the CCGs don't matter, they matter more than ever. You want badly to get a bye, and if you can't get that you want to have a home game.
A 12-team format also really opens up the number of teams who will be in the hunt at the end of the year. I have seen some estimates that in late October you could have as many as 30 teams still in contention for the 12th seed, or for a conference championship. At least 20 teams will be in conference championship games with at least 12 competing for 6 AQs. Then you have late-season games that matter to see if they can squeeze into that 12th spot.
- This is just a cash grab and not for the good of the game
That is incorrect - it's both. You make it sound like making more money is a bad thing. It's not. It's about making more money by making it better for fans. As I pointed out the regular season will be way, way better with scheduling. More teams will be in contention well into November. Fans will have a blast getting into the CFP - if we had a 12-team CFP something like 39 teams would have been in it since 2014, so more fanbases will be more engaged each year and all year. The home-field playoff games will be the best atmosphere in sports, IMO. And getting 4 weeks of CFP will make most CFB fans very happy.
- Just heard that on the radio. Wow. Dawgs will be in the playoffs perpetually.
No kidding! We would have been in all CFPs except for CKS's first year.
- 10-game regular season or something?
No, you don't cancel 132 games (that's what 2 weeks of games is), which is about $750 million dollars, just do you can expand to an 11-game CFP. Everyone will still play 12. Which leads us to the next issue:
- I hate a 12-team playoff. The only good thing it will keep a lot of good players on playoff teams from opting out.
- So a team, who wins a conference title game and gets seeded 5th, could play 17 games.
Let's call this the players' safety issue. Yes, it takes care of opting out for the teams we most care about. But what about player safety? We focus too much on the number of games. This is easily resolved. First, almost always, the maximum number of games will be 16, not 17. Today, it's 15. That's one extra game for 2 teams. Most teams (98%) will still play 12 or 13, a few 14, and a few 15. They have already instituted rules changes for spring and fall practices that lessen the likelihood of injury, where most injuries happen. Most importantly, the wear and tear argument often focuses wrongly on the number of games. The risk of injury isn't a number of games problem, it's a number of plays problem. There will be rule changes to drop the number of plays per game - not stopping the clock on first down, treating an incompletion like a run out of bounds, etc. On average there are about 150 plays total per game. That's 1800 per regular season. If we want to decrease the season by 1 game of plays, you need to get rid of 150 plays over the season. 150/12 = 12.5 plays. So, they will change the rules and each team will have about 6 fewer plays on offense. Now it's 1650 plays per season, not 1800, and the player safety problem is solved.
- oh well fingers crossed for on campus playoff games
- So basically new years six bowls are the playoffs. Great.
This is interesting. Yes, the first round will be on campuses. But what about the quarter-finals? I used to think getting all the NY6 bowls was the way to go. But I would now rather have the quarter-finals also on campus. The heck with the bowls. Can you imagine two straight weeks of 4 games each, 8 games total, on campus? It would be crazy. It would also solve the problem of expense. It gets expensive going to 4 games (CC, quarters, semis, and finals) in far way locations, with all reservations taking place at the last minute. This would reduce that cost. At the end of the day, I think the bowls win out, but man I'd love that second round to be on campus.
- My main qualm is that you could have the 5th best team, lose in the opening round, and your season is over in mid-December.
I need to think more about this, but perhaps first-round losers could be eligible for bowl games like the Outback, etc.
At the end of the day, we knew this was going to happen once the adults were in charge. The Alliance commissioners embarrassed themselves delaying this change and it took the Presidents to get it done. With this done, what does CFB look like in the next 5 years?
- CFP details will get worked out, and we will have a 12-team CFP by 2026, and I'd bet we get it sooner like in 2024.
- The PAC and B12 will work through their realignment issues and new TV contracts.
- OU and TX will move to the SEC as soon as the CFP is done. UCLA and USC to the B1G in 2024.
- NIL will smooth out, but within 5 years there will be direct payments to the players.
- The transfer portal smooths out with set periods and not unlimited transfers - this passed a few days ago.
- The CFP group will take over the management of college football as it splits off from the NCAA. Part of the CFP profits will pay for that management.
- UGA will be in the CFP every year as far as long as CKS is here.
