CFP Rankings Nov. 15

Across The Field said:
I think the issue is they are so bad against the pass but they've also only faced one top 25 passing attack all year. OSU would be a nightmare matchup for them (that said I also would not be looking forward to facing the Tennessee passing attack either).
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Regarding Ohio State, it is the big play potential. I think Ohio State's offense would look a lot like how Florida played us in September with Tennessee holding Ohio State to 3rd downs a lot but then Ohio State converting 3rd and long.

Tennessee's Rushing Defense (which is in top 5 in YPG) is overrated and Passing Defense is underrated when you really dig into it.

A lot of teams, totally abandoned any attempts to run the ball against Tennessee in second half due to the way the game was flowing (the one exception was Georgia, another reason I think they closed out so well against Tennessee).

If you look at the number of times teams have attempted passes against Tennessee vs. Run, it is probably a very high number. Also take into account that passes typically produce more yards on average than runs. Tennessee's rush defense looks so great because teams haven't tried to run as often. Sure it is very good but probably a little overrated.

The pass defense isn't great by any means but it is probably more belongs in the 50s or 60s (about mid-tier) in caliber. It has given up more yards because teams have focused on that against Tennessee and connected often.

Two matchups really drove the passing yardage as well and they were Alabama and Florida. Tennessee's secondary was really bad in both games. Florida just got very lucky and AR hit passes he wasn't hitting all year. However, even with a pedestrian AR game, Tennessee probably still would have given up ~180 to 200 yards. However, they wouldn't have given up over 300 yards. Also against Alabama, Tennessee was missing two members of the secondary. Tennessee's secondary has also had some realignment of players which has seen some potential improvement over last 3 games.

Alabama basically stopped trying to run it in the second half and just threw the ball all game.

I will post a hypothetical Ohio State vs. Tennessee game on next post.
 
Hypothetical (may not happen) Ohio State vs. Tennessee this year

First off, Ohio State should be the favorite. However, I want to point out some intangibles or just plain unknowns below.

1. Tennessee is not used to being here. This is a MAJOR factor. Tennessee hasn't been in big games in modern history. If you don't think this is a real thing, look at Georgia with Kirby Smart the first 3-4 years he was there or even Saban in 2008. It takes time for a program to build a championship culture. I think this played a part in the egg Tennessee laid in Athens. Ohio State is more used to the spot light and that gives them an advantage

2. Ohio State's secondary hasn't been challenged. There just hasn't been a vertical passing team on their schedule even on the level of a Mississippi State. Ohio State might face Purdue in the B1G Championship and Purdue tends to have competent passing games so that might be a threat. This is really an unknown which means we don't know if this is a weakness or not. Ohio State very well could have a secondary on par with Georgia that gives Tennessee fits.

3. Ohio State really hasn't been challenged to date by its schedule. The closest challenges were Notre Dame and Penn State. Penn State imploding in the 4th quarter with the bad QB play. Now by the time Ohio State is in the playoffs, they would have beaten Michigan (who is a legit powerhouse) and possibly a tricky/good team in the B1G Championship. Tennessee has been challenged by a wide variety of teams with very different play styles. This intangible will especially be important if it comes down to a close 4th quarter possession game.

4. Ohio State just has greater talent. This is key. Ohio State's offense will move the ball. It will really come down to whether Ohio State has enough talent to put pressure on Hooker and force Tennessee's offense to play like they did in Athens or whether Tennessee's offense can explode. Kirby Smart also had a great game plan against Tennessee and a loud crowd behind him. Ohio State may not have these advantages on a neutral field. I haven't really seen Ryan Day outcoach a lot of teams so I think coaching scheming for the game could be a potential advantage for Tennessee.
 
Look at the PAC 12 as they have 50% of their teams in the TOP 25.

To bad they don't have more teams in their conference that suck or they could have some TOP 4 teams.
 
Fog said:
Look at the PAC 12 as they have 50% of their teams in the TOP 25.

To bad they don't have more teams in their conference that suck or they could have some TOP 4 teams.
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I mean Washington lost to one of the teams that suck.

So did UCLA.
 
The Pac 12 legit plays no defense. outside of maybe Utah.

This makes me question how great the offenses really are. Especially considering historically mediocre at best players like Bo Nix and Michael Penix went there and just immediately started putting out gaudy stats.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
I mean Washington lost to one of the teams that sucks.

So did UCLA.
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Just saying if the conference had a couple more teams like the SEC then a team could potentially go unbeaten like Georgia.

Look at Geogia's schedule they only played one team in their conference with a winning record.

They didn't have to play LSU, Bama, and or Ole Miss.

You take two teams away from the SEC and force Georgia to play against LSU and Bama the top four looks completely different.
 
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Fog said:
Just saying if the conference had a couple more teams like the SEC then a team could potentially go unbeaten like Georgia.

Look at Geogia's schedule they only played one team in their conference with a winning record.

They didn't have to play LSU, Bama, and or Ole Miss.

You take two teams away from the SEC and force Georgia to play against LSU and Bama the top four looks completely different.
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That's just how it goes sometimes. Divisions end up lopsided a lot of the time

For the Big 10 too, the Big 10 East is almost always clearly superior to the Big 10 West.
 
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Fog said:
Just saying if the conference had a couple more teams like the SEC then a team could potentially go unbeaten like Georgia.

Look at Geogia's schedule they only played one team in their conference with a winning record.

They didn't have to play LSU, Bama, and or Ole Miss.

You take two teams away from the SEC and force Georgia to play against LSU and Bama the top four looks completely different.
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This is false though

UGA has played South Carolina, Tennessee, Miss State & Florida who all have winning records. Argue all you want about how "Good" South Carolina, Miss State & Florida are, but they do have winning records.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
This is false though

UGA has played South Carolina, Tennessee, Miss State & Florida who all have winning records. Argue all you want about how "Good" South Carolina, Miss State & Florida are, but they do have winning records.
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They have losing conference records though
 
osubuckeye89 said:
This is false though

UGA has played South Carolina, Tennessee, Miss State & Florida who all have winning records. Argue all you want about how "Good" South Carolina, Miss State & Florida are, but they do have winning records.
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Overall records yes.
 
Volbound1700 said:
We won't get three teams. I get the vibe that LSU would get the Penn State 2017 treatment and get left out for Georgia and Tennessee. Exception would be if LSU was just impressive and dominated Georgia. That might be enough to get them over Tennessee. Committee will have a hard time justifying LSU getting over Tennessee when they lost to FSU and 40-13 to Tennessee in Baton Rouge.

There could also be a scenario where LSU wins and both LSU and Tennessee are left out.

Tennessee's SOS should give them the edge but I think name brand is also important. If Tennessee was named Alabama with its current resume, they are a lock to make it.

I think Ohio State and USC with 1 loss would both be a threat to Tennessee just because of their name. The committee would use some other criteria like "eyeball" test to put them in.
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Biggest difference between LSU and 2017 Penn State is Penn State didn’t have wins over CFP #s 1, 5 and 8. Huge difference.

I agree with the Ohio State/USC point of view.
 
Going back to the LSU vs. Tennessee discussion (which is probably silly because LSU will likely lose to Georgia),

I have more concerns of a 11-1 B1G team or Clemson/USC passing up Tennessee than I do 11-2 LSU. I mean I guess it is possible but I think Tennessee's 40-13 win over LSU is hard to ignore.
 
Volbound1700 said:
Going back to the LSU vs. Tennessee discussion (which is probably silly because LSU will likely lose to Georgia),

I have more concerns of a 11-1 B1G team or Clemson/USC passing up Tennessee than I do 11-2 LSU. I mean I guess it is possible but I think Tennessee's 40-13 win over LSU is hard to ignore.
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Problem is LSU beating #1 UGA in the SECCG would be much more fresher in the heads of people than Tennessee's W over LSU on October 8th.

Fair or not when wins and losses happen do go into the equation.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
Problem is LSU beating #1 UGA in the SECCG would be much more fresher in the heads of people than Tennessee's W over LSU on October 8th.

Fair or not when wins and losses happen do go into the equation.
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As I am saying, most the media tends to not like LSU's chances even if they win out right now.



Media can be wrong on teams prediction but basically since the committee is made up of mostly people in the media or people that engage with the media, I think there is some legitimacy to the media in this instance.
 
Volbound1700 said:
As I am saying, most the media tends to not like LSU's chances even if they win out right now.



Media can be wrong on teams prediction but basically since the committee is made up of mostly people in the media or people that engage with the media, I think there is some legitimacy to the media in this instance.
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I think they are wrong. Simply because LSU is only 1 spot behind Tennessee in the CFP rankings.

A win over the #1 team in the SECCG would almost certainly vault them over Tennessee who was sitting at home, IMO.
 
HammerDown said:
Ohio State eeked out a win against Northwestern and we're going to anoint them the second-best team in the nation.

pfft

Tennessee would beat the shit out of them.
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Georgia eeked out a win vs Missouri. Needed two 4th quarter TDs to win.

www.si.com

What Happened to Georgia Tonight?

Georgia strained through a four-quarter win over the Missouri Tigers. So, what happened to the Bulldogs tonight? And why did they struggle?
www.si.com www.si.com
 
osubuckeye89 said:
I mean Washington lost to one of the teams that suck.

So did UCLA.
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And one of those struggled against South Alabama. UCLA let South Alabama put up 31 points. Louisiana Lafayette let South Alabama put up 20 points. Don't give me that South Alabama is 8-2 crap. They have beaten teams that are 0.500 or worse.
 
Collegefbfan said:
And one of those struggled against South Alabama. UCLA let South Alabama put up 31 points. Louisiana Lafayette let South Alabama put up 20 points. Don't give me that South Alabama is 8-2 crap. They have beaten teams that are 0.500 or worse.
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Yea thats like the people who were trying to claim Liberty wasnt a bad loss for Arkansas.

They were 8-1 but had many close games against bad teams, then they lost to fucking Uconn.

Same for South Alabama. One score wins against Louisiana (5-5) UL-Monroe (4-6) & Georgia Southern (5-5)

Not to mention they scored 6 points at home in a loss to Troy. 8-2 is a nice record for them but no upper level team should be almost losing to them.
 
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