Adios, Crystal River, FL....errr I mean Boston

[Huskers4me]

I got family living South of Tallahassee on a river. I also have family going to FSU. I will be watching closely.

 

[Red_Alert]

19 foot waves at buoy 42097 (Pulley Ridge, FL), appx 75NM ESE of the center of Idalia.

Waves on top of storm surge are a big problem.

NDBC - Station 42097 Recent Data

National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42097 (25.701N 83.650W) - Pulley Ridge, FL (226).

www.ndbc.noaa.gov

 

[Red_Alert]

Four flights into Idalia today the rest of today.

The AF TEAL 73 (C-130) out of Keesler AFB, MS is on the way now.

NOAA flies P3's nicknamed Kermit and Miss Piggy.

Plan of the Day

 

[Red_Alert]

That dry air is as good as saturated out.

IR Satellite Loop for Hurricane IDALIA | Tropical Tidbits

Hurricane IDALIA IR Satellite Loop

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[Red_Alert]

Current Loop

The eye is well defined and looks to be clearing out.

 

[Red_Alert]

TWC guy keeps showing radar and satellite loops and claiming "It looks like the eye is forming".

He's said it multiple times. derp

The got damned eye formed hours ago according to the last recon Vortex Data Message that had it as "Closed". That means it had a 360° eyewall.

I think what he's trying to say is the eye is trying to clear out.

In a healthy hurricane you should be able see the ocean/gulf, etc. down through the eye hole. The eye should be void of clouds.

 

[Red_Alert]

Looks like all of Florida's gonna get a good flushing.

 

[Red_Alert]

 

[Handicappers]

Eye wall is now formed according to the real meteorologists on TWC

 

[Red_Alert]

Idalia's eye is struggling to clear out on satellite and radar.

Likely because of the PV streamer (yellow) infusing the system. That's UL dry air and a bit of shear.

She'll get past it, but it's good news for delaying intensification.

View attachment 106271

Got some dry air (blue) trying to make it's way into the core at the end of this loop. If it's successful it'll disrupt the eyewall somewhat.

The next Vortex Data Message could be interesting.

COD NEXLAB: Satellite and Radar

Check out COD Meteorology's Satellite and Radar Data

weather.cod.edu

Latest recon Vortex Data Message shows the eyewall opened up to the NW.
This is good news as it's delaying intensification considerably.

 

[Handicappers]

 

[jjc2009]

As of the 5 pm advisory it’s a Cat 2. 100 mph max sustained winds.

 

[Handicappers]

I sure hope Juice will be ok.

 

[broncosmitty]

I sure hope Juice will be ok.

We know he’s stocked up on food.

 

[CorpRebel]

 

[Red_Alert]

AF released another Vortex Data Message.

The eye is "RAGGED" (F) and "Concentric" at 12 - 20 NM wide (G).

This is not a healthy cane ATM.

Maximum surface winds (L) are 64 kt's outbound, which is just 74 mph. i.e. Barely a Cat 1.
Inbound surface winds (H) were 84 kts, which is 96 mph. i.e. Barely a Cat 2.

There's still time for it to get reorganized, but that PV Stream really fucked with it.

 

[Handicappers]

Concentric eyewall cycles naturally occur.

 

[Red_Alert]

AF released another Vortex Data Message.

The eye is "RAGGED" (F) and "Concentric" at 12 - 20 NM wide (G).

This is not a healthy cane ATM.

Maximum surface winds (L) are 64 kt's outbound, which is just 74 mph. i.e. Barely a Cat 1.
Inbound surface winds (H) were 84 kts, which is 96 mph. i.e. Barely a Cat 2.

There's still time for it to get reorganized, but that PV Stream really fucked with it.

View attachment 106295

^^ My bad. That was NOAA's P3 (Miss Piggy) flight. ^^

 

[Red_Alert]

Concentric eyewall cycles naturally occur.

Duh!!

Concentric Eyewall Cycles = Eyewall Replacement Cycles, dufus.

Healthy hurricanes certainly undergo "Eyewall Replacement Cycles". A smaller eyewall forms inside the original one, then the original 'outer' eyewall collapses leaving just the new one. That's not what's happening here.

In weak or weakening storms. A ragged, asymmetrical eye means it's having difficulty organizing and strengthening.

This has never really been a healthy cane. It's never even cleared the cloud cover from it's eye. It's intensification has suffered from dry air infusion and windshear. It looked like it was getting there on satellite and radar, but it has yet to materialized.

It's still got time to get more organized and strengthen (12 hrs). We shall see.
I do know if I were in the cone and within a couple miles of the coast I'd be evacuating from the storm surge.

 

[Red_Alert]

Air Force's second recon flight appx 6pm (CT).

Eyewall: Open SW
Circular 12 NM diameter

Max inbound surface winds: 79 mph
Max outbound surface winds: 90 mph

Pressure dropped to 965 mb
That's down from 972 mb in their earlier flight.

Barometric pressure precedes wind speed, so I'd expect those windspeeds to eventually increase.