Updated Bracketology 2.16.24

ericd7633

ericd7633

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Midwest Regional(Detroit, MI)

1. PURDUE(B1G)
16. NORTH DAKOTA(SUMMIT)/SOUTHERN(SWAC)
- Gainbridge Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
8. Texas
9. New Mexico

5. South Carolina
12. UC-IRVINE(BIG WEST)
- Barclays Center(Brooklyn, NY)
4. Duke
13. APPALACHIAN STATE(SUN BELT)

6. BYU
11. Nevada
- Spectrum Center(Charlotte, NC)
3. Auburn
14. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

7. Florida Atlantic
10. INDIANA STATE(MVC)
-CHI Health Center(Omaha, NE)
2. Baylor
15. EASTERN WASHINGTON(BIG SKY)

East Regional(Boston, MA)

1. UCONN(BIG EAST)
16. NORFOLK STATE(MEAC)/EASTERN KENTUCKY(A-SUN)
- Barclays Center(Brooklyn, NY)
8. Colorado State
9. Virginia

5. DAYTON(A10)
12. MCNEESE(SOUTHLAND)
- Delta Center (Salt Lake City, UT)
4. ALABAMA(SEC)
13. LOUISIANA TECH(CUSA)

6. Washington State
11. Providence/Nebraska
- CHI Health Center(Omaha, NE)
3. Iowa State
14. MOREHEAD STATE(OVC)

7. Michigan State
10. TCU
- Spectrum Center(Charlotte, NC)
2. NORTH CAROLINA(ACC)
15. HIGH POINT(BIG SOUTH)

South Regional(Dallas, TX)

1. HOUSTON(BIG 12)
16. MERRIMACK(NEC)
- Fed Ex Forum(Memphis, TN)
8. Boise State
9. Texas A&M

5. Clemson
12. SAMFORD(SOUTHERN)
- VMA Arena(Spokane, WA)
4. Creighton
13. YALE(IVY)

6. Texas Tech
11. Mississippi State
- PPG Paints Arena(Pittsburg, PA)
3. Wisconsin
14. UNC-WILMINGTON(CAA)

7. ST. MARYS(WCC)
10. Butler
- Fed Ex Forum(Memphis, TN)
2. Tennessee
15. COLGATE(PATRIOT)

West Regional(Los Angeles, CA)

1. ARIZONA(PAC 12)
16. QUINNIPIAC(MAAC)
- Delta Center (Salt Lake City, UT)
8. Kentucky
9. Northwestern

5. San Diego State
12. Ole Miss/Seton Hall
- VMA Arena(Spokane, WA)
4. Illinois
13. AKRON(MAC)

6. UTAH STATE(MVC)
11. GRAND CANYON(WAC)
- PPG Paints Arena(Pittsburg, PA)
3. Kansas
14. SOUTH FLORIDA(AAC)

7. Oklahoma
10. Florida
- Gainbridge Fieldhouse(Indianapolis, IN)
2. Marquette
15. OAKLAND(HORIZON)

Top 10 “S” Curve: Purdue, Uconn, Houston, Arizona, Marquette, Tennessee, Baylor, UNC, Iowa State, Auburn
Last 4 BYES:
Last 4 IN: Ole Miss, Nebraska, Providence, Seton Hall
First 4 OUT: Utah, Wake Forest, Villanova, Gonzaga
Next 4 OUT: Colorado, Cincinnati, Drake, JMU
 
TOP 16 REVEAL:

Midwest:
1. Purdue
2. Baylor
3. Auburn
4. Duke

East:
1. UCONN
2. North Carolina
3. Iowa State
4. Alabama

South:
1. Houston
2. Tennessee
3. Wisconsin
4. Creighton

West:
1. Arizona
2. Marquette
3. Kansas
4. Illinois

Just missed: Dayton, South Carolina, San Diego State, Clemson

By Conference:
Big 12: 4
Big 10: 3
Big East: 3
SEC: 3
ACC: 2
Pac 12: 1
 
One Note: South Florida is considered a "bid thief" by nature of them being in sole possession of 1st place in the AAC. So I am treating them as the auto bid.
 
Kinda surprised at Baylor as a 2.

ISU horrendous non SOS hurting them?
 
Mr.Hockey said:
Kinda surprised at Baylor as a 2.

ISU horrendous non SOS hurting them?
Click to expand...

That is part of it. The committee typically will hold that against teams all throughout the seed lines. Plus, Baylor is 9-6 against Q1/Q2 and ISU is 8-5. Has an extra Q1 win. It's minimal, but that was my rationale. Same with UNC as well.
 
ericd7633 said:
That is part of it. The committee typically will hold that against teams all throughout the seed lines. Plus, Baylor is 9-6 against Q1/Q2 and ISU is 8-5. Has an extra Q1 win. It's minimal, but that was my rationale. Same with UNC as well.
Click to expand...

Yeah I’m the spots I’ve been looking hadn’t seen them as a 2 seed much. But good point on the Q1.

Probably slightly biased too since I just don’t think they are that impressive.

Where as ISU might struggle to score in a half court March game, that D is terrifying and they have quite a bit of solid depth.
 
Mr.Hockey said:
Yeah I’m the spots I’ve been looking hadn’t seen them as a 2 seed much. But good point on the Q1.

Probably slightly biased too since I just don’t think they are that impressive.

Where as ISU might struggle to score in a half court March game, that D is terrifying and they have quite a bit of solid depth.
Click to expand...

I can definitely see them go recency bias and put ISU as a #2 seed. The resumes are very close, Bn but they have better predictive metrics and they're playing better than Baylor as of late.
 
ericd7633 said:
I can definitely see them go recency bias and put ISU as a #2 seed. The resumes are very close, Bn but they have better predictive metrics and they're playing better than Baylor as of late.
Click to expand...

I see you got Auburn at a 3 and Bama at a 4

What’s your thoughts on them and their peaks. They have metrics that are more two seeds

But both have done basically nothing in Q1 especially when you consider they beat each other for the results they do have.

And Auburn is so home dominant.

Do you think it’ll be tough for them to get off the 3/4 lines into the 2? And easier to fall?
 
Mr.Hockey said:
I see you got Auburn at a 3 and Bama at a 4

What’s your thoughts on them and their peaks. They have metrics that are more two seeds

But both have done basically nothing in Q1 especially when you consider they beat each other for the results they do have.

And Auburn is so home dominant.

Do you think it’ll be tough for them to get off the 3/4 lines into the 2? And easier to fall?
Click to expand...

I think they can both get to the 2 line, only because I think UNC and Baylor are pretty vulnerable(in terms of taking losses). They were #12 and #13 on my S Curve, so they're basically identical in my eyes right now. But they would need help to get to that point. Great predictive metrics, resume metrics are a little lacking(relative to being a #2 seed). Both have a chance to put together a nice winning streak here. So they could get there.
 
ericd7633 said:
@SU Nittany Tide ??
Click to expand...
Just didn't love the Kentucky placement. I know they've had a rough stretch but nobody else has them that low. Also think unc is too high but you're not the only one with them as a two. I don't see how they can't get punished for their recent stretch.
 
SU Nittany Tide said:
Just didn't love the Kentucky placement. I know they've had a rough stretch but nobody else has them that low. Also think unc is too high but you're not the only one with them as a two. I don't see how they can't get punished for their recent stretch.
Click to expand...

The matrix has UK as a #7 seed currently and MSU an 8. UK is my best #8, MSU my worst #7, so it's incredibly close. Went with MSU because they have more quality wins and no bad losses(Q3). They also rate higher in the predictive metrics which typically has more of an effect on seeding.

As for UNC, I think they have the resume of a 2(slightly) but can acknowledge that they might fall to the 3 line because of recency bias.
 
SU Nittany Tide said:
Just didn't love the Kentucky placement. I know they've had a rough stretch but nobody else has them that low. Also think unc is too high but you're not the only one with them as a two. I don't see how they can't get punished for their recent stretch.
Click to expand...

UK is most commonly a 7 right now so 8 isn’t that bad

Plus. That’s a fucking great draw. If they can’t play D with a Berry less Northwestern they never had a chance anyways.

Zona would be a chaos induced track meet. Just out score em.
 
Kburjr said:
Wisconsin higher than Illinois seems suspect
Click to expand...
Illinois has like 3 Q1 wins and doesn’t have anything noteable on the road
 
Kburjr said:
Illinois is #13 in the NET. Wisconsin is #20. The only thing Wisconsin has is SOS
Click to expand...

NET is not used for order of seeding like at all.

It’s used to help determine strength of schedule and victory
 
Us at #7 and unc at #5

Is objectively just flat out wrong
 
Mr.Hockey said:
Us at #7 and unc at #5

Is objectively just flat out wrong
Click to expand...

Told you.

They always undervalue the BE. Unless it's something really obvious, like a 1 loss Nova team.

I honestly think Tennessee is a little overrated too, like strictly resume

I also don't think Arizona has made a case to be solidly on the one line, but Seth Davis addressed that
 
jontaejones said:
Told you.

They always undervalue the BE. Unless it's something really obvious, like a 1 loss Nova team.

I honestly think Tennessee is a little overrated too, like strictly resume

I also don't think Arizona has made a case to be solidly on the one line, but Seth Davis addressed that
Click to expand...

To ignore the BE would be to ignore what Cretin did to Nebraska in Lincoln.

Purdue and Wisconsin both went down in Lincoln.
 
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