2021 Hall of Fame ballot

Guy Incognito · Nov 17, 2020

2021 Hall of Fame Voting | Baseball-Reference.com

2021 Hall of Fame Voting Results. Find Full Vote Totals and Statistics for all Players Who Were on the Ballot

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Hard to see anyone other than Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, and Rolen as HOFers.

Next level is Andruw Jones, Todd Helton, and Bobby Abreu. I can see Jones getting in. Helton belongs, but he's getting pushback for playing in Coors.

Vizquel and Pettitte will probably get in, Vizquel for his glove, and Pettitte because of the Yankees playoff bias. Don't think either should, but Harold Baines is in the Hall, so pretty much all bets are off at this point.

Kachina · Nov 17, 2020

No to Schilling, Clemsens, and a giant F no to Bonds.

I'd think Andruw is an easy choice. Helton was so good for so long, loved watching him and Walker together. Petitie for sure belongs in.

RubinRock · Nov 18, 2020

Schilling may make it just because of how weak of a class it is. Bonds, Clemons, and Manny deserve to be, but won't make it. Vizquel deserves to make it just because he was one of the all time defensive greats for as long as he was, but I have a hard time seeing the voters putting him in. Pass on Rolen. If taking into account his defense, Andrew Jones should sneak in but he never will.

Would like to see Hudson and Buehrle get in, but not sure how many years it will take them.

packerzrule · Nov 18, 2020

Sheffield?

navamind · Nov 19, 2020

I think Schilling makes it, maybe Bonds/Clemens. I think Vizquel will get in in the next few years and I think Rolen will make it eventually. I think Andruw should be in but he's got a tough road.

navamind · Nov 19, 2020

packerzrule said:
Sheffield?

He's on his 7th year and while he did make significant progress in last year's voting (jumped from 13.6% to 30.5%), he's still nowhere close. He seems like he's going to have to wait for the Veterans Committee. Same goes for Manny.

Abreu deserves some real consideration. A right fielder with a 128 OPS+ and 400 stolen bases is nothing to sneeze at, and he was one of the best players in the league from 98-04 (only 4 batters had more WAR; Bonds, A-Rod, Rolen and Andruw). I don't think he'll last long on the ballot, but I think he's one of the better players outside the Hall.

Illustrious Potentate · Nov 19, 2020

My ballot would be in no particular order:

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Curt Schilling
4. Andruw Jones
5. Scott Rolen
6. Sammy Sosa
7. Manny Ramirez
8. Gary Sheffield
9. Billy Wagner
10. Jeff Kent

NinerSpartan · Nov 19, 2020

Jones should go in, but HOF writers always have gigantic issues with dudes that have a dramatic drop-off after age 30

Jones become a subpar player the moment he turned 30. he's going to be a veterans committee inductee in like 30 years

DragonFromTo · Nov 19, 2020

Tony Fernandez accumulated the same WAR as Vizquel in 75% of the playing time as a similar style of player. He also received more MVP votes and made more All-Star games for those who like that stuff as a measure of impact and value. He was also very friendly and well-liked, just like Omar. But almost no one (including me) thinks that Tony is a Hall of Famer and he received just 4 votes in his only appearance on the ballot.

DragonFromTo · Nov 20, 2020

navamind said:
He's on his 7th year and while he did make significant progress in last year's voting (jumped from 13.6% to 30.5%), he's still nowhere close. He seems like he's going to have to wait for the Veterans Committee. Same goes for Manny.

Abreu deserves some real consideration. A right fielder with a 128 OPS+ and 400 stolen bases is nothing to sneeze at, and he was one of the best players in the league from 98-04 (only 4 batters had more WAR; Bonds, A-Rod, Rolen and Andruw). I don't think he'll last long on the ballot, but I think he's one of the better players outside the Hall.

A guy like Abreu gets underrated in these things (and in general) because he was good at everything and his overall value was divided among those skills. People seem to prefer guys who are great at something even if their weaknesses balance it out and they end up in the same place as the well rounded guy from an overall value standpoint.

navamind · Nov 20, 2020

DragonFromTo said:
A guy like Abreu gets underrated in these things (and in general) because he was good at everything and his overall value was divided among those skills. People seem to prefer guys who are great at something even if their weaknesses balance it out and they end up in the same place as the well rounded guy from an overall value standpoint.

Nomar had only 1.3 fewer WAR in almost half as many plate appearances (and I don't think Nomar should be in).

A lot of people love to bring up Ozzie in regards to Omar, but they really aren't that similar IMO. Ozzie's career OPS+ of 87 doesn't sound great, but it's 5 points higher than Omar's and that's before you get into the fact that offensive numbers for shortstops across the league were lower when Ozzie's career started than they were when Omar came up. Ozzie had -117 rbat while Omar's pegged at -244.

Major League Leaderboards - 1978 to 2020 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Both stole a lot of bases, but Ozzie stole 176 more bases... and got caught 19 fewer times. So that's 80% for Ozzie and 71% for Omar. Ozzie was also better at taking extra bases (53% versus 42% for Omar). Ozzie comes in at +80 runs from baserunning while Omar's just -1. Ozzie also hit into 40 fewer double plays.

And lastly, Ozzie has a +110 run advantage in Total Zone runs. Put it all together and it comes out to Ozzie having significantly more WAR (76.1 to Omar's 45.6). Look at JAWS and WAR7 and you'll see that Ozzie rates above the average shortstops in the HOF, whereas Omar is significantly below average.

Shortstop JAWS Leaders | Baseball-Reference.com

Shortstop JAWS Leaders

www.baseball-reference.com

DragonFromTo · Nov 20, 2020

navamind said:
Nomar had only 1.3 fewer WAR in almost half as many plate appearances (and I don't think Nomar should be in).

A lot of people love to bring up Ozzie in regards to Omar, but they really aren't that similar IMO. Ozzie's career OPS+ of 87 doesn't sound great, but it's 5 points higher than Omar's and that's before you get into the fact that offensive numbers for shortstops across the league were lower when Ozzie's career started than they were when Omar came up. Ozzie had -117 rbat while Omar's pegged at -244.

Major League Leaderboards - 1978 to 2020 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Both stole a lot of bases, but Ozzie stole 176 more bases... and got caught 19 fewer times. So that's 80% for Ozzie and 71% for Omar. Ozzie was also better at taking extra bases (53% versus 42% for Omar). Ozzie comes in at +80 runs from baserunning while Omar's just -1. Ozzie also hit into 40 fewer double plays.

And lastly, Ozzie has a +110 run advantage in Total Zone runs. Put it all together and it comes out to Ozzie having significantly more WAR (76.1 to Omar's 45.6). Look at JAWS and WAR7 and you'll see that Ozzie rates above the average shortstops in the HOF, whereas Omar is significantly below average.

Shortstop JAWS Leaders | Baseball-Reference.com

Shortstop JAWS Leaders

www.baseball-reference.com

I think you meant to quote my Tony Fernandez post here?

Yeah, I picked Tony because as I said he was a similar type of player with a similar skill set but there are probably many examples that show the same.

Ozzie has actually gotten kind of underrated I think, people have kinda forgotten what baseball was like back then. He was an absolutely perfect fit for Whitey Herzog's teams and what he valued in a shortstop. Whitey also said that he could/would have been a lifetime Padre except everyone involved with the team absolutely hated his agent. The guy apparently insisted on and got a no-trade clause (that Ozzie of course then had to be bought out of) for a goddamned one year contract!

Fish · Nov 20, 2020

Eco said:
No to Schilling, Clemsens, and a giant F no to Bonds.

I'd think Andruw is an easy choice. Helton was so good for so long, loved watching him and Walker together. Petitie for sure belongs in.

You give a giant fuck no to Bonds. I suppose because of steroids.

So Andy Pettitte's steroid use doesn't bother you?

Kachina · Nov 21, 2020

Fish said:
You give a giant fuck no to Bonds. I suppose because of steroids.

So Andy Pettitte's steroid use doesn't bother you?

Honestly forgot about Pettitte's steriod use.

Give him a fuck no from me also please.

wazzu31 · Nov 21, 2020

How can honestly advocate for Pettite or Da I’d Ortiz but be mad about Bonds or Clemens getting in? Schilling should just because Sandy Koufax is in and he changes the requirements.

NinerSpartan · Nov 26, 2020

Why everybody should vote Andy Pettitte into the Hall of Fame

Look at the number of pitchers in Cooperstown born in the 1970s. Notice something interesting?

www.espn.com

tbh, one of their worst articles i have read on ESPN, and that's saying something. his argument boils down to "i know he did PEDs, but somebody from his era has to make it into the HOF and he has a higher career fWAR than Tom Glavine"

Mofo · Nov 26, 2020

Guy Incognito said:
2021 Hall of Fame Voting | Baseball-Reference.com

2021 Hall of Fame Voting Results. Find Full Vote Totals and Statistics for all Players Who Were on the Ballot

www.baseball-reference.com

Hard to see anyone other than Schilling, Clemens, Bonds, and Rolen as HOFers.

Next level is Andruw Jones, Todd Helton, and Bobby Abreu. I can see Jones getting in. Helton belongs, but he's getting pushback for playing in Coors.

Vizquel and Pettitte will probably get in, Vizquel for his glove, and Pettitte because of the Yankees playoff bias. Don't think either should, but Harold Baines is in the Hall, so pretty much all bets are off at this point.

No dirty cheaters like Clemens or Bonds. Schilling's a colossal asshole, but other than going to bat for PED abusers, he didn't seem to do them himself. His numbers and achievements are certainly enough. Rolen... meh-- sure.

navamind · Nov 27, 2020

Hitman Hart said:
Why everybody should vote Andy Pettitte into the Hall of Fame

Look at the number of pitchers in Cooperstown born in the 1970s. Notice something interesting?

www.espn.com

tbh, one of their worst articles i have read on ESPN, and that's saying something. his argument boils down to "i know he did PEDs, but somebody from his era has to make it into the HOF and he has a higher career fWAR than Tom Glavine"

IMO I think bWAR (which is based on RA9) is much better for looking at a pitcher's career than fWAR. Yes, Glavine generally had better defenses behind him and Pettitte had better peripherals. But we're not voting for players based on how they'd do on different teams, we're looking at their actual performance. Even if you want to account for Pettitte's better peripherals he still has almost 1100 fewer innings pitched. Glavine has a 13.2 win advantage in bWAR. Glavine had 9 seasons with 4+ WAR while Pettitte only had 3. Glavine has 13 seasons of 3+ while Pettitte has 9. As far as Wins Above Average go, Glavine's at 39.0 while Pettitte's 29.9. Glavine's WAR7 rates below the average HOF pitcher (50.0, Glavine's 44.1), but his WAR (25th all-time) and JAWS (30th all-time) rate above the average HOFer. Pettitte's below the average HOFer in JAWS, WAR and WAR7 by a good measure.

Pettitte has a few great years, but the rest of his career looks more like a good pitcher than a great one IMO. I think Pettitte's borderline but I don't think he's anymore deserving than Hudson and Buehrle (who may have outperformed his peripherals as well, but part of that could be attributed to him being a great fielding pitcher). David Cone has better numbers and he lasted only one year on the ballot. Schilling's numbers are vastly superior.

navamind · Nov 27, 2020

Here's Jaffe's analysis of Pettitte's HOF candidacy.

JAWS and the 2021 Hall of Fame Ballot: Andy Pettitte

The durable left-hander ‘s strong postseason resumé isn’t enough to get him over the top.

blogs.fangraphs.com

Guy Incognito · Nov 27, 2020

Mofo said:
No dirty cheaters like Clemens or Bonds. Schilling's a colossal asshole, but other than going to bat for PED abusers, he didn't seem to do them himself. His numbers and achievements are certainly enough. Rolen... meh-- sure.

Bonds was a Hall of Famer before he started juicing. After 1998, the list of players with 400 career homers and 400 career steals looked like this:
1) Barry Bonds

You want to not acknowledge the home run records, that's completely understandable. But Bonds went from a Hall of Famer to the best hitter ever because of steroids. He wasn't elevated from a so-so player to a superstar.