First Bracketology of the Season

ericd7633

ericd7633

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MIDWEST REGIONAL (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

1. Tennessee
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NEC)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. DAYTON (A10)
9. Wisconsin

5. Ole Miss
12. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
4. Kansas
13. CORNELL (IVY)

6. UTAH STATE (MTN. WEST)
11. Arkansas
- Mortgage Rocket Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
3. DUKE (ACC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

7. MEMPHIS (AAC)
10. Missouri
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
2. Oregon
15. MONTANA STATE (BIG SKY)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Atlanta, GA)

1. AUBURN (SEC)
16. AMERICAN (Patriot)/SOUTHERN (SWAC)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. Maryland
9. San Diego State

5. Uconn
12. LIBERTY (CUSA)
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Houston
13. ELON (CAA)

6. Arizona State
11. St. John’s
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
3. Florida
14. GRAND CANYON (WAC)

7. Michigan State
10. Vanderbilt
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
15. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)

EAST REGIONAL (NEWARK, NJ)

1. IOWA STATE (BIG 12)
16. LITTLE ROCK (OVC)/MERRIMACK (MAAC)
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
8. Georgia
9. Washington State

5. Texas A&M
12. SAMFORD (SO. CON)
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
4. Pitt
13. MCNEESE (SOUTHLAND)

6. Oklahoma
11. Ohio State/Butler
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
3. Purdue
14. TEXAS STATE (SUN BELT)

7. West Virginia
10. Penn State
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Kentucky
15. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
WEST REGIONAL (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)

1. MARQUETTE (BIG EAST)
16. BRYANT (AM. EAST)
- Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
8. St. Mary’s
9. UCLA

5. ILLINOIS (B1G)
12. UNC/Creighton
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Mississippi State
13. LIPSCOMB (ASUN)

6. Baylor
11. LSU
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
3. Clemson
14. KENT STATE (MAC)

7. Michigan
10. DRAKE (MVC)
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Alabama
15. RADFORD (BIG SOUTH)

Top 10 on “S” Curve: Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Marquette, Alabama, Oregon, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Duke, Clemson
Last 4 BYES: LSU, Arkansas, St. John’s, Vanderbilt
Last 4 IN: Ohio State, North Carolina, Creighton, Butler
First 4 OUT: Cincinnati, SMU, Iowa, Texas Tech
Next 4 OUT: Bradley, Texas, Nebraska, Nevada

Bids By Conference:

SEC: 14
B1G: 10
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
WCC: 3
Mtn. West: 2

BOLDED teams are projected AQ's at the current moment, which is determined by which team in the conference has the highest NET ranking. As we get further into conference play, the designated AQ team, will be the team atop the standings.
 
My early analysis:

The SEC and B1G are going to get an overwhelming large number of at-large bids. I don't think they'll get the 24 combined they are here, but I would project them to get at least 21, if not more. Everyone is talking about a 10 bid SEC, but I think it's much more likely they get 12 instead of 10.

The Big 12 hasn't been as good as advertised this year. Teams like Cincy, Texas Tech and BYU, thanks to their weak OOC schedules and lack of quality wins are projected out. Between the 3, they are 0-4 in Q1 games and 15 of their combined 21 wins are against Q4 competition.

The Big East has a couple teams are the right side of the bubble, due to their wins, but overall, the league hasn't performed very well OOC. Uconn seems to be righting the ship, and Marquette is Marquette under Shaka, but St. John's missed on their opportunities thus far, and Creighton has taken on a lot of losses (and gets Bama tomorrow). Butler has a weird resume. 3 pretty good wins (Miss. St, SMU, NW), but has 2 terrible losses (NDSU and Austin Peay)

I think, at this point, barring a fluke conference champion (ala NC State last year), or a team playing way above their head, I think the ACC's ceiling is 4 teams making it. Duke, Clemson and Pitt all have a great chance at being protected seeds, but that might be all they get. Very similar to the Big East last year in that regard in terms of seeding.

The mid major leagues appear to be down somewhat relative to last year. I can't see the Mountain West getting as many as they did last year. Conversely, I think the WCC has a great shot at 3, and maybe even 4.
 
Notable games this weekend:

Saturday, December 14th:

Memphis at #16 Clemson - 11:00 | ESPN2
#17 Texas A&M vs. #11 Purdue (Indianapolis, IN) - 12:00 | CBS
Ohio State vs. #2 Auburn (Atlanta, GA) - 1:00 | ESPN2
Xavier at #22 Cincinnati - 2:00 | ESPN+
#20 Wisconsin vs. Butler (Indianapolis, IN) - 2:30 | BTN
Arizona State vs. #9 Florida (Atlanta, GA) - 3:30 | SEC Network
LSU vs. SMU (Frisco, TX) - 4:00 | ESPNU
#1 Tennessee at Illinois - 5:30 | FOX
#6 Marquette at Dayton - 7:00 | CBSSN
#8 Gonzaga vs. #18 Uconn (New York, NY) - 8:00 | FOX
Creighton at #7 Alabama - 8:30 | SEC Network
 
ericd7633 said:
MIDWEST REGIONAL (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

1. Tennessee
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NEC)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. DAYTON (A10)
9. Wisconsin

5. Ole Miss
12. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
4. Kansas
13. CORNELL (IVY)

6. UTAH STATE (MTN. WEST)
11. Arkansas
- Mortgage Rocket Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
3. DUKE (ACC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

7. MEMPHIS (AAC)
10. Missouri
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
2. Oregon
15. MONTANA STATE (BIG SKY)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Atlanta, GA)

1. AUBURN (SEC)
16. AMERICAN (Patriot)/SOUTHERN (SWAC)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. Maryland
9. San Diego State

5. Uconn
12. LIBERTY (CUSA)
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Houston
13. ELON (CAA)

6. Arizona State
11. St. John’s
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
3. Florida
14. GRAND CANYON (WAC)

7. Michigan State
10. Vanderbilt
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
15. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)

EAST REGIONAL (NEWARK, NJ)

1. IOWA STATE (BIG 12)
16. LITTLE ROCK (OVC)/MERRIMACK (MAAC)
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
8. Georgia
9. Washington State

5. Texas A&M
12. SAMFORD (SO. CON)
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
4. Pitt
13. MCNEESE (SOUTHLAND)

6. Oklahoma
11. Ohio State/Butler
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
3. Purdue
14. TEXAS STATE (SUN BELT)

7. West Virginia
10. Penn State
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Kentucky
15. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
WEST REGIONAL (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)

1. MARQUETTE (BIG EAST)
16. BRYANT (AM. EAST)
- Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
8. St. Mary’s
9. UCLA

5. ILLINOIS (B1G)
12. UNC/Creighton
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Mississippi State
13. LIPSCOMB (ASUN)

6. Baylor
11. LSU
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
3. Clemson
14. KENT STATE (MAC)

7. Michigan
10. DRAKE (MVC)
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Alabama
15. RADFORD (BIG SOUTH)

Top 10 on “S” Curve: Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Marquette, Alabama, Oregon, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Duke, Clemson
Last 4 BYES: LSU, Arkansas, St. John’s, Vanderbilt
Last 4 IN: Ohio State, North Carolina, Creighton, Butler
First 4 OUT: Cincinnati, SMU, Iowa, Texas Tech
Next 4 OUT: Bradley, Texas, Nebraska, Nevada

Bids By Conference:

SEC: 14
B1G: 10
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
WCC: 3
Mtn. West: 2

BOLDED teams are projected AQ's at the current moment, which is determined by which team in the conference has the highest NET ranking. As we get further into conference play, the designated AQ team, will be the team atop the standings.
Click to expand...
Delete your whore post
 
ericd7633 said:
My early analysis:

The SEC and B1G are going to get an overwhelming large number of at-large bids. I don't think they'll get the 24 combined they are here, but I would project them to get at least 21, if not more. Everyone is talking about a 10 bid SEC, but I think it's much more likely they get 12 instead of 10.

The Big 12 hasn't been as good as advertised this year. Teams like Cincy, Texas Tech and BYU, thanks to their weak OOC schedules and lack of quality wins are projected out. Between the 3, they are 0-4 in Q1 games and 15 of their combined 21 wins are against Q4 competition.

The Big East has a couple teams are the right side of the bubble, due to their wins, but overall, the league hasn't performed very well OOC. Uconn seems to be righting the ship, and Marquette is Marquette under Shaka, but St. John's missed on their opportunities thus far, and Creighton has taken on a lot of losses (and gets Bama tomorrow). Butler has a weird resume. 3 pretty good wins (Miss. St, SMU, NW), but has 2 terrible losses (NDSU and Austin Peay)

I think, at this point, barring a fluke conference champion (ala NC State last year), or a team playing way above their head, I think the ACC's ceiling is 4 teams making it. Duke, Clemson and Pitt all have a great chance at being protected seeds, but that might be all they get. Very similar to the Big East last year in that regard in terms of seeding.

The mid major leagues appear to be down somewhat relative to last year. I can't see the Mountain West getting as many as they did last year. Conversely, I think the WCC has a great shot at 3, and maybe even 4.
Click to expand...

Yea, SEC is bonkers this year. I think I saw Auburn has 16 Q1 games remaining.

But it's really just to set them up to do well in the tourney.

Anything less than two Final 4 bids is a failure, and zero Final 4 bids is a monumental failure.
 
jontaejones said:
Yea, SEC is bonkers this year. I think I saw Auburn has 16 Q1 games remaining.

But it's really just to set them up to do well in the tourney.

Anything less than two Final 4 bids is a failure, and zero Final 4 bids is a monumental failure.
Click to expand...

That sounds about right. I know South Carolina has 17 Q1 games remaining. It's totally insane. Every game is a Q1/Q2 game essentially.

They should easily have double digit teams in the tournament, and have 7/8 top seeds (1-4).

I'd be pretty stunned if they didn't have at least one team make the FF.
 
Q1 OOC records for the P5:

SEC: 25-16
Big 12: 14-28
B1G: 10-22
Big East: 9-17
ACC: 9-38
 
Notable games this week:

Tuesday, December 17th:

DePaul at St. John's - 6:30 | Peacock
North Carolina vs. #9 Florida (Charlotte, NC) - 7:00 | ESPN
#16 Clemson at South Carolina - 7:00 | SEC Network
Drake vs. Kansas State - 8:00 | ESPN+

Wednesday, December 18th:

Xavier at #18 UConn - 7:00 | FS1
Butler at #6 Marquette - 9:00 | FS1
#13 Oklahoma vs. #14 Michigan - 9:00 | ESPN2
Washington State at Washington - 11:00 | FS1

Friday, December 20th:

#22 Cincinnati at Dayton - 8:30 | ESPNU
 
The PAC could be a one bid league...oh wait
 
ericd7633 said:
Is a shame. League would have been as strong this year, as it's been in forever.
Click to expand...

Would it? UCLA and Oregon are playing well but that's about it.

Here's what the KenPom ratings are for the PAC 12 teams:

1. UCLA (13th nationally)
2. Oregon (17th nationally)
3. Arizona (31st nationally)
4. Arizona State (57th nationally)
5. Utah (63rd nationally)
6. Oregon State (64th nationally)
7. Washington State (71st nationally)
8. Colorado (72nd nationally)
9. Stanford (82nd nationally)
10. USC (95th nationally)
11. Washington (100th nationally)
12. California (122nd nationally)

Granted, if Bill Walton was still around, he would call this PAC a 9 bid league.
 
duckboy33 said:
Would it? UCLA and Oregon are playing well but that's about it.

Here's what the KenPom ratings are for the PAC 12 teams:

1. UCLA (13th nationally)
2. Oregon (17th nationally)
3. Arizona (31st nationally)
4. Arizona State (57th nationally)
5. Utah (63rd nationally)
6. Oregon State (64th nationally)
7. Washington State (71st nationally)
8. Colorado (72nd nationally)
9. Stanford (82nd nationally)
10. USC (95th nationally)
11. Washington (100th nationally)
12. California (122nd nationally)

Granted, if Bill Walton was still around, he would call this PAC a 9 bid league.
Click to expand...

Since the 2016 season, I'd say this is the strongest among those grouping of teams. The league has been pretty bad since then. I'd say 4 teams are on track to make the tournament, and the bottom of the league isn't as terrible as it has been.
 
ericd7633 said:
Since the 2016 season, I'd say this is the strongest among those grouping of teams. The league has been pretty bad since then. I'd say 4 teams are on track to make the tournament, and the bottom of the league isn't as terrible as it has been.
Click to expand...

I don't see that.
 
ericd7633 said:
Q1 OOC records for the P5:

SEC: 25-16
Big 12: 14-28
B1G: 10-22
Big East: 9-17
ACC: 9-38
Click to expand...

Big East had a chance to finish strong, but limped to the finish line.

Still have the 2nd best OOC winning % for Q1, but ... many more Q3 losses I'm sure.
 
duckboy33 said:
I don't see that.
Click to expand...

The bottom not being absolutely terrible is the main difference. It would still be the 5th best conference (in front of the ACC), so not a good power conference, but performing better then they have IMO.
 
jontaejones said:
Big East had a chance to finish strong, but limped to the finish line.

Still have the 2nd best OOC winning % for Q1, but ... many more Q3 losses I'm sure.
Click to expand...

UConn and Nova closing out good will help, but X and Butler haven't closed OOC good. St John's just didn't have any opportunities. Creighton was good and bad (loss to Bama, a miss opportunity). I think the league can still get 4 and maybe 5, but that might be a stretch.
 
duckboy33 said:
Would it? UCLA and Oregon are playing well but that's about it.

Here's what the KenPom ratings are for the PAC 12 teams:

1. UCLA (13th nationally)
2. Oregon (17th nationally)
3. Arizona (31st nationally)
4. Arizona State (57th nationally)
5. Utah (63rd nationally)
6. Oregon State (64th nationally)
7. Washington State (71st nationally)
8. Colorado (72nd nationally)
9. Stanford (82nd nationally)
10. USC (95th nationally)
11. Washington (100th nationally)
12. California (122nd nationally)

Granted, if Bill Walton was still around, he would call this PAC a 9 bid league.
Click to expand...

I think it would have set up well for UCLA and Oregon to get top 4 seeds in the old PAc. And Arizona would have time to find their footing with familiar foes.

Now ... all bets are off. There's no easy road games for those teams.

Arizona could get buried before February.
 
ericd7633 said:
MIDWEST REGIONAL (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

1. Tennessee
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NEC)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. DAYTON (A10)
9. Wisconsin

5. Ole Miss
12. UC-IRVINE (BIG WEST)
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
4. Kansas
13. CORNELL (IVY)

6. UTAH STATE (MTN. WEST)
11. Arkansas
- Mortgage Rocket Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
3. DUKE (ACC)
14. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)

7. MEMPHIS (AAC)
10. Missouri
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
2. Oregon
15. MONTANA STATE (BIG SKY)

SOUTH REGIONAL (Atlanta, GA)

1. AUBURN (SEC)
16. AMERICAN (Patriot)/SOUTHERN (SWAC)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. Maryland
9. San Diego State

5. Uconn
12. LIBERTY (CUSA)
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Houston
13. ELON (CAA)

6. Arizona State
11. St. John’s
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
3. Florida
14. GRAND CANYON (WAC)

7. Michigan State
10. Vanderbilt
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
15. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)

EAST REGIONAL (NEWARK, NJ)

1. IOWA STATE (BIG 12)
16. LITTLE ROCK (OVC)/MERRIMACK (MAAC)
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
8. Georgia
9. Washington State

5. Texas A&M
12. SAMFORD (SO. CON)
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
4. Pitt
13. MCNEESE (SOUTHLAND)

6. Oklahoma
11. Ohio State/Butler
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
3. Purdue
14. TEXAS STATE (SUN BELT)

7. West Virginia
10. Penn State
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Kentucky
15. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
WEST REGIONAL (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)

1. MARQUETTE (BIG EAST)
16. BRYANT (AM. EAST)
- Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (Cleveland, OH)
8. St. Mary’s
9. UCLA

5. ILLINOIS (B1G)
12. UNC/Creighton
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Mississippi State
13. LIPSCOMB (ASUN)

6. Baylor
11. LSU
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
3. Clemson
14. KENT STATE (MAC)

7. Michigan
10. DRAKE (MVC)
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
2. Alabama
15. RADFORD (BIG SOUTH)

Top 10 on “S” Curve: Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Marquette, Alabama, Oregon, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Duke, Clemson
Last 4 BYES: LSU, Arkansas, St. John’s, Vanderbilt
Last 4 IN: Ohio State, North Carolina, Creighton, Butler
First 4 OUT: Cincinnati, SMU, Iowa, Texas Tech
Next 4 OUT: Bradley, Texas, Nebraska, Nevada

Bids By Conference:

SEC: 14
B1G: 10
Big 12: 6
Big East: 5
ACC: 4
WCC: 3
Mtn. West: 2

BOLDED teams are projected AQ's at the current moment, which is determined by which team in the conference has the highest NET ranking. As we get further into conference play, the designated AQ team, will be the team atop the standings.
Click to expand...
Where do you have UK among 2's?
 
jontaejones said:
I think it would have set up well for UCLA and Oregon to get top 4 seeds in the old PAc. And Arizona would have time to find their footing with familiar foes.

Now ... all bets are off. There's no easy road games for those teams.

Arizona could get buried before February.
Click to expand...

It goes both ways. If a PAC team had a rough OOC stretch, it became nearly impossible to make the tournament.
 
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