GAME Georgia vs Oregon, 9/3/2022, 3:30 PM eastern, ABC

Illustrious Potentate

Illustrious Potentate

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I’m happy that Dan Lanning was able to get a P5 head coaching job, but even he knows he’s in for a long first game.

My prediction is both teams will be playing their backups most of the second half. UGA because they’re up so much, Oregon because the first stringers are too beat up to continue.

UGA does need to take it a little easy on them so Oregon can look good on the resume. Beat em up too bad and they won’t be able to field a competitive team for weeks after the game.

Predicting a 63-0 win for UGA

And yes, this is the official game thread and any other threads discussing this matchup should be merged with this one
 
Yeah.

How good will Lanning's Oregon defense be without Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp holding his hand?

Kirby Smart is on record saying Muschamp was brought in to "Help coach the coaches". That is likely because Lanning's defense at Georgia had taken a step back when Lanning took over as DC.

The pile of successful P5 coordinators failing at the head coaching level is deep. There's a 5% chance of meeting expectations at best.

They're all a risk but I get it, someone's gotta take that risk.

Josh Lupoi's been a 'position coach' at 3 different NFL teams in as many years (19, 20, 21) prior to taking the DC job at Oregon. Will Lanning have to hold his hand?

Lupoi as Defensive Coordinator at Bama for 2018 season...

Total Defense: 16th
Scoring Defense: 12th
Rushing Defense: 19th
Passing Defense: 33rd

All that Bama talent and not Top 10 in any category.
 
I've seen lines for this game anywhere from Oregon +15 to Oregon +18. I can't see it being that lopsided, but then again Oregon got the shit beat out of them down the stretch of last season.
 
Wow.....this is early.
 
Red_Alert said:
Yeah.

How good will Lanning's Oregon defense be without Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp holding his hand?

Kirby Smart is on record saying Muschamp was brought in to "Help coach the coaches". That is likely because Lanning's defense at Georgia had taken a step back when Lanning took over as DC.

The pile of successful P5 coordinators failing at the head coaching level is deep. There's a 5% chance of meeting expectations at best.

They're all a risk but I get it, someone's gotta take that risk.

Josh Lupoi's been a 'position coach' at 3 different NFL teams in as many years (19, 20, 21) prior to taking the DC job at Oregon. Will Lanning have to hold his hand?

Lupoi as Defensive Coordinator at Bama for 2018 season...

Total Defense: 16th
Scoring Defense: 12th
Rushing Defense: 19th
Passing Defense: 33rd

All that Bama talent and not Top 10 in any category.
Click to expand...
Lanning was a good DC before Muschamp got there. That 2019 UGA defense was at least in the same ball park as the 2021 defense. Kirby is always gonna be pretty hands on with the defense though. I really wish Lanning well, and I think he has a real chance to have success in the Pac. He’s coached under Saban and Kirby, and was always a top recruiter as a position coach. But there’s no such thing as a guarantee when hiring a coach. Even hiring a successful coach away from another P5 team isn’t a guarantee. Look at Dan Mullen, Willie Taggart, Charlie Strong, Rich Rodriguez, Kiffin and Sark(USC), etc
 
Red_Alert said:
Yeah.

How good will Lanning's Oregon defense be without Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp holding his hand?

Kirby Smart is on record saying Muschamp was brought in to "Help coach the coaches". That is likely because Lanning's defense at Georgia had taken a step back when Lanning took over as DC.

The pile of successful P5 coordinators failing at the head coaching level is deep. There's a 5% chance of meeting expectations at best.

They're all a risk but I get it, someone's gotta take that risk.

Josh Lupoi's been a 'position coach' at 3 different NFL teams in as many years (19, 20, 21) prior to taking the DC job at Oregon. Will Lanning have to hold his hand?

Lupoi as Defensive Coordinator at Bama for 2018 season...

Total Defense: 16th
Scoring Defense: 12th
Rushing Defense: 19th
Passing Defense: 33rd

All that Bama talent and not Top 10 in any category.
Click to expand...

BTW... Those 2018 Bama defensive stats were a fairly large step back from the 2017 Bama season when Lupoi was "Co-Defensive Coordinator.

2017 Bama defensive stats...

Total Defense: 1st
Scoring Defense: 1st
Rushing Defense: 1st
Passing Defense: 6th

Lupoi was most likely forced out of Bama
 
Red_Alert said:
BTW... Those 2018 Bama defensive stats were a fairly large step back from the 2017 Bama season when Lupoi was "Co-Defensive Coordinator.

2017 Bama defensive stats...

Total Defense: 1st
Scoring Defense: 1st
Rushing Defense: 1st
Passing Defense: 6th

Lupoi was most likely forced out of Bama
Click to expand...
There was a step back for sure, but 2018 was also the first year Bama went with a quick strike offense with Tua and that 4 headed monster at receiver. That wouldn’t account for that big of a drop off, but should be factored in. They were still very much a run first, TOP centered offense in 2017 until the second half of the NCG when Tua made his presence known
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
There was a step back for sure, but 2018 was also the first year Bama went with a quick strike offense with Tua and that 4 headed monster at receiver. That wouldn’t account for that big of a drop off, but should be factored in. They were still very much a run first, TOP centered offense in 2017 until the second half of the NCG when Tua made his presence known
Click to expand...

Just saying there are clear question marks for Lanning and Lupoi.

Couple that with a low percentage of coordinators actually meeting expectations (hype) at the next level doesn't bode well.

We shall see.
 
Red_Alert said:
Just saying there are clear question marks for Lanning and Lupoi.

Couple that with a low percentage of coordinators actually meeting expectations (hype) at the next level doesn't bode well.

We shall see.
Click to expand...
It’s far from a guarantee that Lanning will be successful. He was worth giving a shot though. I’d rather gamble on a P5 coordinator than a G5 HC though. Both are gambles, but feel like the coordinator is gonna be more keen on recruiting
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
It’s far from a guarantee that Lanning will be successful. He was worth giving a shot though. I’d rather gamble on a P5 coordinator than a G5 HC though. Both are gambles, but feel like the coordinator is gonna be more keen on recruiting
Click to expand...

I agree to a point.

Urbs broke that mold, but I can't think of another G5 head coach that had his success in the P5 as well.

As we agree, outside of very few they're all gamble and someone's gotta take that gamble.
 
Red_Alert said:
I agree to a point.

Urbs broke that mold, but I can't think of another G5 head coach that had his success in the P5 as well.

As we agree, outside of very few they're all gamble and someone's gotta take that gamble.
Click to expand...
It’s always gonna be a crapshoot. Hell, was Dabo ever more than a position coach before he got the Clemson HC gig?
 
Illustrious Potentate said:
It’s always gonna be a crapshoot. Hell, was Dabo ever more than a position coach before he got the Clemson HC gig?
Click to expand...

I guess we can add Jim Tressel to that list.

Before taking over at Ohio St he was HC at Youngstown St from 1986-1990

Heck as FCS they're lower than G5.
 
Red_Alert said:
Yeah.

How good will Lanning's Oregon defense be without Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp holding his hand?

Kirby Smart is on record saying Muschamp was brought in to "Help coach the coaches". That is likely because Lanning's defense at Georgia had taken a step back when Lanning took over as DC.

The pile of successful P5 coordinators failing at the head coaching level is deep. There's a 5% chance of meeting expectations at best.

They're all a risk but I get it, someone's gotta take that risk.

Josh Lupoi's been a 'position coach' at 3 different NFL teams in as many years (19, 20, 21) prior to taking the DC job at Oregon. Will Lanning have to hold his hand?

Lupoi as Defensive Coordinator at Bama for 2018 season...

Total Defense: 16th
Scoring Defense: 12th
Rushing Defense: 19th
Passing Defense: 33rd

All that Bama talent and not Top 10 in any category.
Click to expand...
Lanning was an outstanding DC. Sure CKS is D oriented, but we heard the same thing about Kirby and Saban. Lanning knows D.

How that translates to HC, I have no idea, but don't doubt his ability to be a DC.

Muschamp was brought in, because:
- He and Kirby are best friends.
- He got paid 12.9 million to leave USCjr, UF paid him over 6 million. He was looking for a place to relax and recharge.
- Muschamp's son is on the team.
- He needs time to decide if he wants to try and be a HC again.

Why wouldn't you bring him in as an analyst? It was no reflection on Lanning.

We now have Mike Bobo as an analyst, and his son is on the team.
 
Red_Alert said:
Just saying there are clear question marks for Lanning and Lupoi.

Couple that with a low percentage of coordinators actually meeting expectations (hype) at the next level doesn't bode well.

We shall see.
Click to expand...
There is no specific question mark for Lanning, other than he faces the problem all coordinators have when they become HCs. He may be great, be may fall on his face. But he was the DC for the best D in CFB in a long time and he helped recruit it, and he coached it.
 
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