Hurricane Ida

huskers1217

huskers1217

Joined
Aug 17, 2020
Posts
26,606
Reaction score
29,617
Bookie:
$ 500.00
Location
Sitting in Houston Traffic....
okay fine. I'm ready to say the sky is falling here.... I'm thinking it gets to a strong Cat 4 before going back down to a 3 at landfall

 
Officially a Hurricane now... Cat 1 (75mph)
 
huskers1217 said:
okay fine. I'm ready to say the sky is falling here.... I'm thinking it gets to a strong Cat 4 before going back down to a 3 at landfall

Click to expand...

Admittedly, I’m a way big weather geek. I follow models and know what bullshit like “positive MJO” means. There hasn’t been a storm yet this year that has so many things going for it. We’ve been lucky.

This just had a lot of the feel of Michael a few years back. Came up out of the same weird place and has a lot of the same positive development factors doing for it.

So far it is blossoming just as modeled. The models have a pretty easy job with this one. And it hasn’t even hit what I feel is the biggest thing it has going for it….the warm water eddy.

These eddys come up the FL coast and make a round before going back out near the Yucatán. This time of year they can get really bunched up like this and make a shallow and hot pool of water that this storm will be sucking up.

I’m thinking it could mean a two category pop from this alone. Reality is that she will likely lose some of that energy before hitting land.

Worst case she pops to a 5 and then down to a 4 before landfall. Hoping it’s well better then this somehow.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
Admittedly, I’m a way big weather geek. I follow models and know what bullshit like “positive MJO” means. There hasn’t been a storm yet this year that has so many things going for it. We’ve been lucky.

This just had a lot of the feel of Michael a few years back. Came up out of the same weird place and has a lot of the same positive development factors doing for it.

So far it is blossoming just as modeled. The models have a pretty easy job with this one. And it hasn’t even hit what I feel is the biggest thing it has going for it….the warm water eddy.

These eddys come up the FL coast and make a round before going back out near the Yucatán. This time of year they can get really bunched up like this and make a shallow and hot pool of water that this storm will be sucking up.

I’m thinking it could mean a two category pop from this alone. Reality is that she will likely lose some of that energy before hitting land.

Worst case she pops to a 5 and then down to a 4 before landfall. Hoping it’s well better then this somehow.
Click to expand...

i think its projected at 120 tops.. im thinking it hits 135 or so and then down to 120 at landfall.
 
huskers1217 said:
i think its projected at 120 tops.. im thinking it hits 135 or so and then down to 120 at landfall.
Click to expand...
That sounds about right. Scary in its own right.

I’m just wondering if it hits more like 150-155 and drops to 135-140 on hitting.

These are just glamour numbers at that point…..either way this is a beast.

And, so far, New Orleans leaders either have much more faith in levees and pumps of what. They just set evacuation for anyone outside levees, but they really should do the same inside them too. We will see.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
That sounds about right. Scary in its own right.

I’m just wondering if it hits more like 150-155 and drops to 135-140 on hitting.

These are just glamour numbers at that point…..either way this is a beast.

And, so far, New Orleans leaders either have much more faith in levees and pumps of what. They just set evacuation for anyone outside levees, but they really should do the same inside them too. We will see.
Click to expand...

Ill be honest. If I lived anywhere in that area - I'd probably go catch a Astros game in dallas on Sunday and monday...well i guess on monday the rockies are in town. so that should be good
 
jjc2009 said:
Son’s at Ole Miss. they’re way far enough inland that the worst they’ll get is a lot of rain and possibly loss of power but they’re keeping an eye on it.
Click to expand...
If he buries himself in a few Ole Miss sorority girls he’s going to be fine. :eyebrows:
 
huskers1217 said:
Ill be honest. If I lived anywhere in that area - I'd probably go catch a Astros game in dallas on Sunday and monday...well i guess on monday the rockies are in town. so that should be good
Click to expand...
Said that today to a few people. If I were anywhere from Mobile to Baton Rouge I’m getting out now.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
Said that today to a few people. If I were anywhere from Mobile to Baton Rouge I’m getting out now.
Click to expand...
We got close friends in Fairhope (a lot closer to gulf in Mobile Bay).
 
huskers1217 said:
Click to expand...

Yes. Because a preseason game matters that much.

But at least they moved it up so they can prepare the stadium for a possible part two of the hell people went through there last time.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
Yes. Because a preseason game matters that much.

But at least they moved it up so they can prepare the stadium for a possible part two of the hell people went through there last time.
Click to expand...

oh FML i dont like that yellow area out there. Call me in 14 days

two_atl_5d0.png
 
huskers1217 said:
it probably won't change up. but I'm more curious about the 8PM track than the 5PM track. Will Cuba move it any left or right?
Click to expand...
I’m doubtful because land mass doesn’t act as a steering current. If there is a turn coming off Cuba it will be due to the high pressure over GA/FL that it is riding around….or will be soon.
 
Orlando_Eagles said:
Admittedly, I’m a way big weather geek. I follow models and know what bullshit like “positive MJO” means. There hasn’t been a storm yet this year that has so many things going for it. We’ve been lucky.

This just had a lot of the feel of Michael a few years back. Came up out of the same weird place and has a lot of the same positive development factors doing for it.

So far it is blossoming just as modeled. The models have a pretty easy job with this one. And it hasn’t even hit what I feel is the biggest thing it has going for it….the warm water eddy.

These eddys come up the FL coast and make a round before going back out near the Yucatán. This time of year they can get really bunched up like this and make a shallow and hot pool of water that this storm will be sucking up.

I’m thinking it could mean a two category pop from this alone. Reality is that she will likely lose some of that energy before hitting land.

Worst case she pops to a 5 and then down to a 4 before landfall. Hoping it’s well better then this somehow.
Click to expand...
I’ve ridden out a Hurricane that was barely a Cat 1 and trust me you want no part of anything over a 3 and I wouldn’t be there for a 2.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top