Is college football in danger of losing popularity

[Volbound1700]

This one is going to be controversial but stick with me here. One thing that I use to love about college football was how exciting and balanced it used to be as a sport. I actually tell people that I miss the 1990s and the first decade of the 2000s which I consider to be the height of the sport and not just because my team was better.

The issue with CFB today is that it has started to get too lop-sided. The same teams tend to win their leagues every year: Alabama with the SEC, Clemson with the ACC, Ohio State with the B1G, Oklahoma with the Big12. Meanwhile traditional powers such as Michigan, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Nebraska, wallow in obscurity.

Worse, entire areas of the country are no longer that competitive. The Pac12 isn't what the Pac10 once was, the Northeast doesn't have great football anymore (Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse have been so bad for so long that people forget that they actually used to have good teams).

This presents challenges for the sport as fans dial out and don't want to watch when their teams continually lose. As a Tennessee fan, why watch when we are going to get creamed by Alabama, Florida, and Georgia every year?

Take a classic example snapshot, the 1998 season.

The Big12 had an undefeated Kansas State team and the Pac12 had an undefeated UCLA team going into the final week of football. UCLA was upset by Miami and Kansas State by Texas A&M in the Big12 title game. This opened the door to one loss Florida State or Ohio State teams to make it in with FSU ultimately getting the nod. The previous year, Nebraska and Michigan shared a title. Before that Florida beat FSU for the title.

You see the variety in teams? Also, there are teams from each region involved. In 1998, Syracuse nearly beat Tennessee and beat defending National Champion Michigan as well as won the Big East. The variety was there. Teams felt like they could beat the big dogs and anyone could win on any given Saturday. The talent was pretty evenly dispersed across the country. The game was fun to watch.

2000s also was a great decade. You had Pete Carroll's USC teams, great Cal teams, multiple SEC teams vying for the title, and Oklahoma/Texas with great teams. Still, things starting to go awry in this decade, starting with the B1G as Ohio State started to take the lead and would not relinquish it. Meanwhile ACC powers FSU, Miami, and Virginia Tech started to decline and the league would eventually become open for Clemson to start its run.

Fast forward to the last 5-6 years. It is the same teams nearly every year. Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma. Every once in a while a Georgia, Oregon, or LSU breaks in but no one else is really competitive. Fan support is dwindling because all of the talent is focused on a few schools. Already, everyone is expecting a title game between Alabama and Clemson with Ohio State maybe being in the mix.

Teams like Pittsburgh, UCLA, Nebraska, etc. haven't been good in 20 years. Fans are leaving the sport.

The NFL probably has a better model. Overtime, nearly any team can rise up with the exception of the Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders lol. Is CFB declining?

(I also think that the stupid rules that limit defenses are hurting but that is another topic).

 

[SJ76]

Dam has it been cloudy in Knoxville?

 

[fordman84]

Seems like this conversation seems to happen every decade, saying that one team is too dominant. But it is all cyclical. the breaking point is what I was mentioning last week when a team has so much success they have 4/5* two deep at every position so the new 4/5* begin looking at other schools and it just takes landing a couple of the right 5* guys to string a couple of dominant years together and then recruits start your way.

 

[jjc2009]

Part of it might be that there are too many FBS programs. The talent pool is diluted. Sure, the elite can congregate in a few top programs, but many programs cannot acquire enough depth to be at least somewhat competitive with the elite programs.

 

[Gatorchip]

So how does a program like Minnesota whose dominance spanned AT LEAST 8 entire decades. Natties won in 5 of those decades by 3 different coaches, Conf Titles won in 7 of the 8, and multiple players from 7 of those 8 decades are enshrined in the Cfb Hall of Fame, and former Gophers kicking tail in pro football spans across EVERY decade for the last 13 decades, from the very first Pro fb player in history, Pudge Heffelfinger whose statue greets everyone visiting the Pro Football Hall of Fame at the entrance, to Tony Dungy becoming the first ever Black coach to lead his team to a Super Bowl Title just over a decade ago. In between, Pudge's time at Minnesota and becoming the first ever pro fb player in history, and Dungy's historic Super Bowl win, a UMner invented Cheerleading, then Pudge, as an asst to Head Coach Henry L Williams helped Williams develop the 4 man backfield which contributed to UMn's undefeated team stopping Michigan's Point a minute squad, tying the eventual Natl Champs in 1903. Bobby Marshall became the first black player to play in the B1G Conf. Williams was one of the first to propose the forward pass and one of the first to utilize it successfully in the teens. In 1920 former Gopher Bobby Marshall became the first ever black fb player to play in the NFL. Former Gopher Gil Dobie was establishing the long held cfb record unbeaten streak that was so long, it spanned THREE different coaching gigs, including his entire career at the University of Washington. This is a record that may never be matched. In the 20s Bronko Nagurski was so good he was named to the All-American team at 3 different positions, 2 in the same year even. And this was legit, as the DEFENSIVE Cfb POY Award is named after him, yet he was inducted into the Pro Fb Hall of Fame as an offensive player as a Fullback and was so good a famous movie scene was all about how Nagurski came out of retirement to help his old team win the Championship again in 1943. Former Gophers were coached so well by Henry Williams that they even shared Natl Titles as coaches as they did in 1940 when both Bernie Bierman coaching the Gophers went undefeated and were named Natl Champs and Clark Shaughnessy coaching Stanford went undefeated and were also named Natl Champs. So good were former Gophers at coaching, that Tulane University hired 3 straight former Gophers to coach them and for 3-4 decades Tulane was actually a blue blood. And at least one of the Natl Titles Bierman won at Minnesota was called the Henry L Williams Trophy, as it was renamed that after Minnesota won the Knute Rockne Trophy 3 times in a row. Had Bierman won the Title in 1942, it would have been retired and renamed after him possibly? But instead, Bierman's dominance at Minnesota was so dominating that it literally took the US Govt choosing to get involved in WW2 to end UMn's dominance as they were picked to win the Natl Title again, in 1942, which would have been their 6th Title in 9 years, but instead Bierman was taken away and placed as the coach of the Iowa Seahawks military training team, and over half of the Gopher's players were scooped away for military service several who ended up playing AGAINST the Gophers, including Unanimous All-American Bill Daley who finished 7th in the Heisman voting in 1943. But the kick in the nuts was when it was the Iowa Seahawks coached by Bernie Bierman himself and with a roster that included several former Gophers, were the team that ended UMn's winning streak. So it was Notre Dame who eventually retired the Henry L Williams trophy and got it renamed. After the war and after Bernie Bierman had to try to rebuild the program basically from scratch with players who, Bud Grant admitted to later on, didn't respond well to Bierman's coaching style because of their wartime experiences. They were probably good enough to win another Title in 1949 but the bad attitudes of the players, Bud Grant himself admitted, cost the team their 2 losses. So after Bierman who was already very old, retired, and UMn had missed out on the opportunity to hire either former Gophers Biggie Munn or Bud Wilkinson who combined dominated the late 1940s and early 1950s cfb scene, the UMn admin went with an outsider, and his failing to make an immediate impact got them seriously considering giving up on football all together, but then Warmath came out of nowhere, partly due to his being one of the first to bring in lots of black players, unusual in the 50s, and won the Natl Title in 1960 and continued doing well throughout the 60s. UMn's influence on the game of football in the 50s and into the 60s was SO WIDE, that former Gophers were taking turns coaching their teams to the CFL Grey Cup Championship game, and former Gophers were taking turns coaching their cfb teams to Natl Titles, all while UMn was doing fairly good as well. In 1962, Wisc, coached by a former Gopher, finished #2, Oklahoma, coached by a former Gopher finished #8, UMn finished #10, and Mizzou, coached by a former UMn-Duluth player, who was coached by a former Gopher, finished #12 in the nation all while Bud Grant's team was winning the Grey Cup Title. Biggie Munn stepped away from the sideline to lead MSU into the B1G conf as their Athletic Director, Bud Wilkinson retired soon after the 62 season and went into politics and being a game announcer/commentator and a very good one I've read, Devine moved on to Notre Dame and a Natl Title and infamy in how he was portrayed in the movie Rudy, Bud Grant went on into a Pro Hall of Fame career as an NFL coach, and Murray Warmath retired soon after winning a share of the Big Ten title in 1967 and unfortunately not getting his name in the cfb Hall of Fame where it probably deserves to be. Warmath's players went on to dominate in the NFL in the late 1960s and well into the 1970s and even a few into the 1980s. Bierman's former players continued coaching as late as into the 80s, as well as at least one of Warmath's players although most of his ended up playing in the NFL, not coaching. And Bierman's and that one Warmath player's impact on the game lasted into the 21st Century as both Tony Dungy and multiple CFL Title winning Coach Marc Trestman played for Cal Stoll while he was coaching Minnesota and beating #1 ranked Michigan in 77. And among Joe Salem's assistant coaches were Mike Martz and Mike Shanahan.

Now I'm sure I missed a bunch. The B1G conf didn't allow B1G teams to play in bowl games for most of UMn's peak years, so they weren't able to build up a ton of bowl game wins like some programs, yet since they became supposedly "irrelevant", they still were able to play in Bowl games in each of the last 6 decades, and have gotten to a bowl game in 15 of the 20 years of the 21st Century, so far, winning 7 of them, including their last 4.

Did I mention that UMn has had players end up the high pt scorer in the entire NFL 10 times by 4 different players in 4 different decades?

Did I mention that UMn has had players end up as NFL All-Decade players 10 times in 6 different decades, more than any other school that I am aware of, as I checked after the 2000s all-Decade team, not after the 2010s team came out.

Looking at the teams on that list,
UMn has SIX Recognized Titles & 4-6 Poll Era Titles(34 AP & 35 UPI polls make it 6 for UMn), and UMn has a

1-0 record vs Bama,
1-0 record vs Clemson. Clemson has just 3 Poll Era Titles, and 3 Recognized Titles.
1-0 record vs Auburn. Auburn has just 2 Poll Era Titles, and 3 Recognized Titles.
1-0 record vs Texas. UT has just 5 Poll Era Titles and 4 Recognized Titles.
1-0 record vs Ark. Ark has just 1 recognized Title
1-0 record vs GT. GT has just 1 Poll Era Title and 4 Recognized Titles
33-25-2 rcrd vs Nebraska
10-7 record vs Washington
9-3 record vs Pitt. Pitt has just 2 Poll Era Titles.
2-1 record vs UCLA. UCLA has just 1 Poll Era Title & only 1 Recognized Title.
62-49-2 rcrd vs Iowa. Iowa has ZERO Poll Era Titles, but 1 Recognized Title.
1-1-1 rcrd vs Stanford. Stanford has ZERO Poll Era Titles, but 1 Recognized Title.

That's 12 of the 30 teams on that list. UMn's cumulative record vs those 12 blue bloods & potential blue bloods is

123-86-5

61-37-3 not including Iowa.

We never played Geo, LSU, Flor, A&M, FSU, Miami, VT or WVU.

That brings it to TWENTY. 20 of the 30 teams on that list either never played the Gophers or do NOT have a winning record vs the Gophers. Of the teams on that list, who have not played Minnesota, lets compare # of Titles

UMn = 6 Recognized Titles. 4/6 Poll Era Titles.
LSU = 5 Recognized Titles. 4 Poll Era Titles.
Mia = 5 Recognized Titles. 5 Poll Era Titles.
Flor = 3 Recognized Titles. 3 Poll Era Titles.
FSU = 3 Recognized Titles. 3 Poll Era Titles.
VTch = 0 Recognized Titles. 0 Poll Era Titles.
WVU = 0 Recognized Titles. 0 Poll Era Titles.

Michigan, just for those who are interested? Just TWO poll Era Titles. Pitt also has only 2 Poll Era Titles.
Col, Geo, GT, A&M, UCLA all only have 1 Poll Era Title.

Of the 10 remaining teams, Tennessee has just a 0-1 record vs UMn, and just 2 Poll Era Titles & only 4 Recognized Titles.
PSU has just a 6-9 advantage over Minnesota in head to head, & PSU has just 2 Poll Era Titles & only 4 Recognized Titles.

OSU & Mich have massive advantages over the Gophers, as does Notre Dame and USC.

That leaves Oklahoma, of the 8 legit Blue Bloods, with a decent advantage over the Gophers, but I must remind you all, it was a former Gopher that made Oklahoma into what they are, Bud Wilkinson led them to their first three Titles.

 

[fordman84]

holy wall of text _______

(can't say the name in the joke without twisting up a certain tittiebaby)

 

[Volbound1700]

Seems like this conversation seems to happen every decade, saying that one team is too dominant. But it is all cyclical. the breaking point is what I was mentioning last week when a team has so much success they have 4/5* two deep at every position so the new 4/5* begin looking at other schools and it just takes landing a couple of the right 5* guys to string a couple of dominant years together and then recruits start your way.

That is the case that I see now. It is also bad that entire areas of the country are shutout.

@jjc2009 Notre Dame staying good would help the sport. Despite not liking you guys, Notre Dame adds a lot to college football. However, right now, most people are thinking Notre Dame is a pretender until they play and beat a solid team. Great opportunity this season if Notre Dame can hang with Clemson and beat Miami.

 

[fordman84]

That is the case that I see now. It is also bad that entire areas of the country are shutout.

@jjc2009 Notre Dame staying good would help the sport. Despite not liking you guys, Notre Dame adds a lot to college football. However, right now, most people are thinking Notre Dame is a pretender until they play and beat a solid team. Great opportunity this season if Notre Dame can hang with Clemson and beat Miami.

There needs to be a dominant team on the left coast too, or else there aren't any good games worth staying up to watch.

 

[Thiefery]

Sports comes and goes in cycles, CFB will never lose it's popularity.

 

[Volbound1700]

There needs to be a dominant team on the left coast too, or else there aren't any good games worth staying up to watch.

I agree. Washington getting good helped a little. The West Coast needs USC and UCLA to get back to form (at least competitive where they are winning 8 games or so). No one really buys into Oregon but they do have decent teams, I guess.

Having a Northeast team be good would help as well. The B1G needs to have someone not named Ohio State win the B1G. Honestly, the best thing that could happen with the B1G is Michigan finally beating Ohio State (or Nebraska getting back to form).

 

[CoalTrain]

I’ve wondered the same thing OP.

It’s always been a group of 7-10 blue bloods and everyone else but it seems that since the playoff began it’s been limited to 3-4 programs being dominant and that could be a product of the exposure affecting recruiting to an almost unfair level.

Would expanding the playoff help? I dunno TBH but it might be worth trying before the sport gets too stale.

 

[fordman84]

I agree. Washington getting good helped a little. The West Coast needs USC and UCLA to get back to form (at least competitive where they are winning 8 games or so). No one really buys into Oregon but they do have decent teams, I guess.

Having a Northeast team be good would help as well. The B1G needs to have someone not named Ohio State win the B1G. Honestly, the best thing that could happen with the B1G is Michigan finally beating Ohio State (or Nebraska getting back to form).

Or Penn St getting good.

 

[Volbound1700]

Another factor that I failed to mention in the original post was the collapse of the original Big12. I think it hurt CFB as well. I also don't blame it all on the Longhorn network. (@Thiefery will be happy).

Here are other reasons (Besides LHN) that the Big12 collapsed:

1. Not maintaining the annual rivalry game between Oklahoma and Nebraska
2. The Colorado debacle - The scandals that hit this school destroyed CU athletics. CU never really recovered and the conference change (fresh start) was inevitable. Colorado was, historically, the #3 best program in the Big8 and #2 best program in the Big12 North
3. The failure to get adequate TV markets. The SEC obtained the CBS agreement in the 1990s which did wonder for the league. B1G had agreements with ESPN and ABC. Big12 didn't have anything. This open the door for Texas to pursue LHN which left the other teams in the dust
4. Oklahoma's dominance in the league but lack of dominance outside of the league. This didn't just start with playoffs. Oklahoma lost in 2003, 2004 (embarrassingly), and 2008. Not to mention a bowl loss to Boise State. It probably was unfair to call out Oklahoma on this but it did hurt the league reputation
5. Nebraska's struggles... this was likely the initial nail in the coffin. Nebraska started looking so then Colorado and Missouri started looking. It just blossomed from there. Nebraska wanted a fresh start to get more quality opponents on their schedule for TV Agreements. The B1G was the perfect opportunity

Still, the Big12 was a solid and competitive league. I hated to see it break up.

 

[Volbound1700]

Or Penn St getting good.

As crazy as it sounds, Notre Dame being really good helps the Northeast. They probably have as much fans as the teams located in that region. In fact, Notre Dame has a stronger base there than they do in the MidWest. Notre Dame should have been located in Massachusetts or NY instead of Indiana lol.

 

[jjc2009]

That is the case that I see now. It is also bad that entire areas of the country are shutout.

@jjc2009 Notre Dame staying good would help the sport. Despite not liking you guys, Notre Dame adds a lot to college football. However, right now, most people are thinking Notre Dame is a pretender until they play and beat a solid team. Great opportunity this season if Notre Dame can hang with Clemson and beat Miami.

ND’s problem is they’re just not recruiting at the level of AL, Clemson, Ohio State etc. they’re a good team right now, just not elite. They’re really not coughing up furballs to teams they’re supposed to beat anymore, which was a trademark for most of the last decade, but when they are lucky enough to run the table and get into the playoffs or a major bowl the talent gap shows up bigly.

Kelly as bad a coach as he is, at least has some Stability in the program, and he better hold onto Clark Lea as long as he can if he wants to do so, but they need to recruit better. They can still sell the school and history, but they actually have to do it.

 

[jjc2009]

Sports comes and goes in cycles, CFB will never lose it's popularity.

It may if it starts dying at the HS level. Worrying about concussions and the costs of the sport may turn more kids off to the sport.

 

[Volbound1700]

ND’s problem is they’re just not recruiting at the level of AL, Clemson, Ohio State etc. they’re a good team right now, just not elite. They’re really not coughing up furballs to teams they’re supposed to beat anymore, which was a trademark for most of the last decade, but when they are lucky enough to run the table and get into the playoffs or a major bowl the talent gap shows up bigly.

Kelly as bad a coach as he is, at least has some Stability in the program, and he better hold onto Clark Lea as long as he can if he wants to do so, but they need to recruit better. They can still sell the school and history, but they actually have to do it.

I would take Kelly at UT. He has done wonder for Notre Dame.

Another thing that has hurt Notre Dame is that their traditional opponents are not good. Michigan, USC, Boston College, Pittsburgh, Michigan State, etc. are not the quality wins or attention grabbing matchups that they have been in the past. Also Notre Dame has gotten away from playing some of those games. The biggest matchup Notre Dame had lately was Georgia and they lost both times. (Although they played better than expected).

 

[TomTrojan92]

Yes, the talent pool is being depleted. And it will grow smaller, as less parents let their kids play the game due to health concerns.

As far as being elite, that relies on elite recruiting. Money , geography and branding are important. When Chip was at Oregon, with Phil Knight's money behind them, they built a really strong brand that gave them a national draw. Saban built up on Bama's traditions, and added to them. Clemson has turned its program into a national brand. Success feeds success until it doesn't, and the cycle is over. Saban's cycle seems longer than any we've seen in the recent past.

 

[Volbound1700]

Also, you look at the Pac10 in the 1990s, at different times, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, and Washington State all had top 10 teams.

 

[fordman84]

It may if it starts dying at the HS level. Worrying about concussions and the costs of the sport may turn more kids off to the sport.

That's a good point, but I think you would even see it starting with peewee football going away. I know flag football has become more popular, but I have one kid who keeps missing baseball practice with concussions since flag doesn't wear helmets and they all lean in.