Kentucky Derby 2020

psaboy

psaboy

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Early line on Saturday's Derby. Tiz the Law is hands down favorite, think it is a matter of who come in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Surprised Country Grammer is not running, may have to do with Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting hurt the other day??

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psaboy said:
Early line on Saturday's Derby. Tiz the Law is hands down favorite, think it is a matter of who come in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Surprised Country Grammer is not running, may have to do with Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting hurt the other day??

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Which one won the belmont?
 
So only 3 from belmont running....hope they aren't changing the distance again
 
tabascojet said:
Tiz....nevermind
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Yeah, Tiz pretty much will own the Derby unless something goes off out of gate weird, he could probably gain it back. Hell I bet he could do a delayed start and still win, but you never know. What do you mean about change the distance?
 
psaboy said:
Yeah, Tiz pretty much will own the Derby unless something goes off out of gate weird, he could probably gain it back. Hell I bet he could do a delayed start and still win, but you never know. What do you mean about change the distance?
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Belmont ran a shorter distance than normal this tear.....
 
psaboy said:
Yeah, Tiz pretty much will own the Derby unless something goes off out of gate weird, he could probably gain it back. Hell I bet he could do a delayed start and still win, but you never know. What do you mean about change the distance?
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17 horse field, weird things happen......

Country grammar really isnt that good.......got a gift on the rail in his win..........
 
SteelersPride said:
17 horse field, weird things happen......

Country grammar really isnt that good.......got a gift on the rail in his win..........
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Just thought he would try to get 2nd or third, that is about all that is for debate in this race. If you think one horse can beat Tiz, which one would you say??
 
psaboy said:
Just thought he would try to get 2nd or third, that is about all that is for debate in this race. If you think one horse can beat Tiz, which one would you say??
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Truth? Gimme a few minutes and let me browse the past performances... I have some gut instincts but I wanna make sure I’m right in what I’m thinking...

and yeah I mean they keep adding just horrible horses to the race so why not out country grammar in there , he wouldn’t be the bottoms 5 ...
 
My gut says Honor AP.....great breeding, has mike smith on board. Smith pretty much said he wasnt worked right before the shared belief and has taken over his workouts.......but hes 2 for 5......His stride is beautiful.......

Alot are on art collector, I am too....hes got speed.......he could be on the lead, churchill downs is his hometrack.......he broke the track record for a mile and a 16th......but i see a handful of speed......



HAP numbers just dont stack up, but with smith hes my call.......King guillermo too.d
 
SteelersPride said:
My gut says Honor AP.....great breeding, has mike smith on board. Smith pretty much said he wasnt worked right before the shared belief and has taken over his workouts.......but hes 2 for 5......His stride is beautiful.......

Alot are on art collector, I am too....hes got speed.......he could be on the lead, churchill downs is his hometrack.......he broke the track record for a mile and a 16th......but i see a handful of speed......



HAP numbers just dont stack up, but with smith hes my call.......King guillermo too.d
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OK, I really haven't looked at closely yet. Will give my thoughts in next day or two.
 
not sure why that
psaboy said:
OK, I really haven't looked at closely yet. Will give my thoughts in next day or two.
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yeah this was a quick glance. No
One uses dosage index anymore but New York traffics is off the charts
 
Hypothetical - what does Nadal and Charlton do in the 3 year old campaign if healthy. Do you think they could beat Tiz The Law?
 
Swurv said:
Hypothetical - what does Nadal and Charlton do in the 3 year old campaign if healthy. Do you think they could beat Tiz The Law?
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I would say yes, they would be more of a threat than what's currently in the race. That would have been tough race to call.
 
Tiz the law gets the worse post position. By history, no horse has won for the #17 gate and last time the 17 gate horse was ITM was 1988 and has the lowest ITM % of all positions. I will take that into consideration. Find it interesting that the AP Honor is in the 16 spot, Authentic is in the 18 spot. At this time I'm thinking of 16. 17 w/16, 17, 18, 10 & 6 Exacta wheel. Possible long shots to throw into mix; NY Trafiic, Sole Volante & Max Player. I Worry about not having Authentic on top part of Exacta, I know he usually runs out of gas after about mile, maybe Velazquez can make a difference?
 
Swurv said:
Hypothetical - what does Nadal and Charlton do in the 3 year old campaign if healthy. Do you think they could beat Tiz The Law?
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Nadal yes...
 
psaboy said:
Tiz the law gets the worse post position. By history, no horse has won for the #17 gate and last time the 17 gate horse was ITM was 1988 and has the lowest ITM % of all positions. I will take that into consideration. Find it interesting that the AP Honor is in the 16 spot, Authentic is in the 18 spot. At this time I'm thinking of 16. 17 w/16, 17, 18, 10 & 6 Exacta wheel. Possible long shots to throw into mix; NY Trafiic, Sole Volante & Max Player. I Worry about not having Authentic on top part of Exacta, I know he usually runs out of gas after about mile, maybe Velazquez can make a difference?
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Tiz post position is great for him.... new starting gate and not all the horses r running.... toss out old numbers.

I can’t find value..... I think tiz rolls

But I do a big ol happy dance of thousand words or money moves wins
 
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