Kentucky Derby 2022

Kentucky Derby Winners by Post​

The horses who have fared the best in the Derby have traditionally come from the interior posts. However, recent contests have seen that bias start to drift toward the outer posts.

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The horses who have fared the best in the Derby have traditionally come from the interior posts. However, recent contests have seen that bias start to drift toward the outer posts.

Kentucky Derby Winning Post Position Trends​

  • The 5th post position has the most wins all-time with 10 victories from 91 starts.
  • Four of the last 7 Kentucky Derby winners broke from post 13 or higher.
  • Post position 17 is the only post to not have produced a Derby winner.
 

Kentucky Derby In-The-Money Finishes by Post​

While picking the winner in the Kentucky Derby is important for anyone looking to cash a bet. Many horseplayers will look to the vertical exotics which are significantly more challenging, but can produce the largest payouts. Vertical exotic wagers are listed below.

  • Exacta: Select the first and second finishers in the race
  • Trifecta: Select the first, second, and third finishers in the race
  • Superfecta: Select the first, second, third, and fourth finishers in the race.
With these bets it is just as important to know who has a chance to run second, third and fourth as it is to know the winner. Understanding which post positions put horses at an advantage to finish in the money can be helpful in landing players on horses that other players may leave out.

Horses breaking from the inside have historically had more success getting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. This graph does not include 4th place finishers.

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Horses breaking from the inside have historically had more success getting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. This graph does not include 4th place finishers.

Kentucky Derby In-The-Money Trends​

  • The 9 & 10 posts have been the most productive historically with nearly 30% of horses hitting the top 3 in the Kentucky Derby.
  • While the outside posts have been winning more frequently in recent years, posts 1-11 have each produced at least one top 3 finisher since 2010.
 
Top three from what I see is Epicenter, Taiba & Messier. Second tier Zandon, MoDonegal. Possible third tier/long shots White Abarrio, Tiz the Bomb, Simplification, Zozos, Tawny Port & Pioneer of Medina. Traveling most of day, so not sure if I'll post picks by post.
 
So did they find out how much drugs were in the winner's system yet?
 
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