Rockies’ and White Sox’s season over already
- Thread starter Brutus
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The White Sox and Rockies have won a total of 6 out of 19 games combined since. MLB really needs a minimum salary cap.
what website is this from?
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Relegation.
MLB Playoff Odds | FanGraphs Baseball
Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities.
Whereas, this may be logically correct, Mathematically it is horrible. I would give it more credit if it was written as a narrative opinion then trying to display it as fact.
Disagree. It's using math to make predictions. There's more than enough data available to draw conclusions that a team that scores way less runs than it allows is 1) most likely going to lose a lot of games and 2) is unlikely to make the playoffs.
There is a non-zero chance that they *could* turn their seasons around, but it's miniscule, based on the math.
“Similarly, a value of 0.0% doesn't always mean that a team cannot mathematically make the playoffs. It means that they finished the season in the playoffs in less than 10 of our 20,000 simulations.”
They are probabilities based on data, not to be taken as fact
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After last year, the White Sox are still on pace to finish with a better record this season
And the Rockies are on pace to do worse than last years Sox!
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When do these two juggernauts square off?
To me 0.00% is saying they are eliminated. It is not mathematically sound, it would be easy to disprove their methodology. I wouldn't bet on either the White Sox or the Rockies, but 0.0% is ridiculous.
I think that what I said was pretty clear. Is it possible for either team to win all their remaining games ... yes. Is it probable ... NOIt's less not actually zero, but it's below .05, so it may as well be zero.
If they posted a 0.00045% (9/20,000) chance of making the playoffs would that make you feel better?
“Not mathematically sound”
“easy to disprove”
I’m not going to pretend I’m a statistics wizard, so I’m just asking, what makes you claim you could easily disprove their methodology? I’d be curious as to what specifically is not mathematically sound in their predictions
(1) Yes or a simple >0.1%