Rockies’ and White Sox’s season over already

Brutus

Brutus

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Voltaire said:
Whereas, this may be logically correct, Mathematically it is horrible. I would give it more credit if it was written as a narrative opinion then trying to display it as fact.
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Disagree. It's using math to make predictions. There's more than enough data available to draw conclusions that a team that scores way less runs than it allows is 1) most likely going to lose a lot of games and 2) is unlikely to make the playoffs.

There is a non-zero chance that they *could* turn their seasons around, but it's miniscule, based on the math.
 
Voltaire said:
Whereas, this may be logically correct, Mathematically it is horrible. I would give it more credit if it was written as a narrative opinion then trying to display it as fact.
Click to expand...
“Similarly, a value of 0.0% doesn't always mean that a team cannot mathematically make the playoffs. It means that they finished the season in the playoffs in less than 10 of our 20,000 simulations.”

They are probabilities based on data, not to be taken as fact
 
Brutus said:
“Similarly, a value of 0.0% doesn't always mean that a team cannot mathematically make the playoffs. It means that they finished the season in the playoffs in less than 10 of our 20,000 simulations.”

They are probabilities based on data, not to be taken as fact
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After last year, the White Sox are still on pace to finish with a better record this season
 
Guy Incognito said:
Disagree. It's using math to make predictions. There's more than enough data available to draw conclusions that a team that scores way less runs than it allows is 1) most likely going to lose a lot of games and 2) is unlikely to make the playoffs.

There is a non-zero chance that they *could* turn their seasons around, but it's miniscule, based on the math.
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Brutus said:
“Similarly, a value of 0.0% doesn't always mean that a team cannot mathematically make the playoffs. It means that they finished the season in the playoffs in less than 10 of our 20,000 simulations.”

They are probabilities based on data, not to be taken as fact
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To me 0.00% is saying they are eliminated. It is not mathematically sound, it would be easy to disprove their methodology. I wouldn't bet on either the White Sox or the Rockies, but 0.0% is ridiculous.
 
Voltaire said:
To me 0.00% is saying they are eliminated. It is not mathematically sound, it would be easy to disprove their methodology. I wouldn't bet on either the White Sox or the Rockies, but 0.0% is ridiculous.
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It's less not actually zero, but it's below .05, so it may as well be zero.

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Voltaire said:
To me 0.00% is saying they are eliminated. It is not mathematically sound, it would be easy to disprove their methodology. I wouldn't bet on either the White Sox or the Rockies, but 0.0% is ridiculous.
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If they posted a 0.00045% (9/20,000) chance of making the playoffs would that make you feel better?



“Not mathematically sound”
“easy to disprove”

I’m not going to pretend I’m a statistics wizard, so I’m just asking, what makes you claim you could easily disprove their methodology? I’d be curious as to what specifically is not mathematically sound in their predictions
 
Brutus said:
(1)If they posted a 0.00045% (9/20,000) chance of making the playoffs would that make you feel better?



“Not mathematically sound”
“easy to disprove”

I’m not going to pretend I’m a statistics wizard, so I’m just asking, what makes you claim you could easily disprove their methodology? I’d be curious as to what specifically is not mathematically sound in their predictions
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(1) Yes or a simple >0.1%
 
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