I hit on Army Wife in the Black Eyed Susan and I'm alive in the Black Eyed Susan / Preakness double to Medina Spirit and Crowded Trade. Here are my thoughts:
#3 Medina Spirit (9/5): There is no question that this horse is the one to beat in here. He had everything go his way in the Derby but the big question is who will pressure the pace in the Preakness to make things a little tougher on him. We know that the other Baffert, Concert Tour, is not going to get involved in a speed duel with Medina Spirit. All signs point to Midnight Bourbon sending and pressing the pace. Is Midnight Bourbon fast enough to throw things off for Medina Spirit? Maybe. The other question for Medina Spirit is how he'll respond to the 2 weeks between races. He's heavily raced over the last 6 months and maybe he peaked in the Derby...but this field isn't especially strong and Baffert gets these horses ready better than anyone else.
#4 Crowded Trade (10/1): If Midnight Bourbon hooks up with Medina Spirit or Concert Tour or both, then you want someone who is going to be able to work out a good trip and then pass them down the stretch. Think Super Stock in the Arkansas Derby. I think the most likely horse to do that is Crowded Trade who looks like a talented horse that Chad Brown may have let bite off more than he could chew early in his career after his big performance in the Gotham. He's rested up and been pointing to this race so he should be ready.
#5 Midnight Bourbon (5/1): If the Baffert horses falter, Midnight Bourbon is the next most accomplished horse in the field. The horses from the Louisiana Derby ran well in the Kentucky Derby and he has the look of a horse who won't mind running on short rest. He also didn't get his preferred trip in the Derby and should look to send and try to work out a nice trip near the front in this one. My problem with him is that I don't think he's fast enough to get the lead and will likely need Medina Spirit to regress and/or Concert Tour not to show up in order to win this one. But he's the most likely horse to hit the board and note that he is half sibling to Cocked and Loaded, Girvin, and Pirate's Punch, all of whom are graded stakes winners in dirt routes so he's got the pedigree to fall back on.
#9 Risk Taking (15/1): If you want to take a shot on a longshot in your exotics, Risk Taking is a good horse to consider. Chad Brown skipped the Peter Pan last week to run Risk Taking here, despite the fact that he's got the same ownership as Chad's other horse Crowded Trade. So what's the deal? I'm not quite sure but my guess is that the field came up a bit weak and Risk Taking has been working well so why not take a shot?
#6 Rombauer (12/1): Michael McCarthy has sort of developed a reputation of having his shippers ready to run. McCarthy himself is a good trainer (15% win percentage,46% in the money) but his numbers for shippers in graded stakes dirt routes over the last 5 years puts him at 23%/62% with an average payout of $10. So it would be wise to take any of his horses seriously when they ship into town. Rombauer looks like an improving 3 year old who has been putting in very fast workouts over the last few weeks. He was sort of up against it last time out with the moderate pace (and facing two very good horses in Essential Quality and Highly Motivated.) He may be too far back to win this one but he should be coming late and don't be surprised if he gets a piece in the end.
#10 Concert Tour (5/2): The only other horse to really talk about is Baffert's 2nd horse Concert Tour. It's no secret that I've been a big fan of his over the early part of this year. But when you look at his performances, it's not clear why he should be the 5/2 second choice (and some sources indicate he might be close to the favorite come post time.) To me, that's nuts and while I've always loved this horse's potential, I think he's a horse that you bet against and let him beat you at short odds. Even his Rebel win, where he got an uncontested pace and wired the field, his speed figures did not come back particularly fast. Given that he did not take a step forward in the Arkansas Derby, ask yourself why we should bet on him to take a step forward now. Maybe he will, but for me he is worth passing on at such low odds.
Betting strategy:
Horizontal wagers - use Medina Spirit, Crowded Trade, and Midnight Bourbon.
Win bet - Medina Spirit
Trifecta bet - Medina Spirit and Crowded Traded over Medina Spirit, Crowded Trade, Midnight Bourbon, Rombauer, Risk Taking over Medina Spirit, Crowded Trade, Midnight Bourbon, Rombauer, Risk Taking
Superfecta bet - Lean heavily on Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon in superfecta wagers (i.e., don't box a bunch of horses, key these two in various spots to save money, such as Medina Spirit over Crowded Trade, Rombauer, Risk Taking, Keepmeinmind over Midnight Bourbon over Crowded Trade, Rombauer, Risk Taking, Keepmeinmind).
Good luck all. Hopefully we can cash some tickets.
