Updated Bracketology 2.15.21

ericd7633

ericd7633

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Region #1

1. GONZAGA(WCC)
16. NORTH CAROLINA A&T(MEAC)/TEXAS STATE(SUN BELT)

8. Louisville
9. Oregon

5. Missouri
12. BELMONT(OVC)

4. Texas
13. UC-SANTA BARBARA(BIG WEST)

6. Kansas
11. Seton Hall

3. Iowa
14. COLGATE(PATRIOT)

7. Florida
10. UCLA

2. VIRGINIA(ACC)
15. SIENA(MAAC)

Region #2

1. BAYLOR(BIG 12)
16. PRAIRIE VIEW A&M(SWAC)/MOUNT ST. MARY’S(NEC)

8. Xavier
9. Indiana

5. Wisconsin
12. Colorado State/Connecticut

4. Tennessee
13. WINTHROP(BIG SOUTH)

6. Arkansas
11. North Carolina/Boise State

3. VILLANOVA(BIG EAST)
14. LIBERTY(A-SUN)

7. Oklahoma State
10. LOYOLA-CHICAGO(MVC)

2. Illinois
15. VERMONT(AM. EAST)

Region #3

1. MICHIGAN(B1G)
16. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE(SUMMIT)

8. BYU
9. San Diego State

5. Florida State
12. UTAH STATE(MVC)

4. Creighton
13. WESTERN KENTUCKY(C-USA)

6. Purdue
11. Drake

3. Oklahoma
14. UNC-GREENSBORO(SOUTHERN)

7. Clemson
10. Minnesota

2. HOUSTON(AAC)
15. GRAND CANYON(WAC)

Region #4

1. Ohio State
16. JAMES MADISON(CAA)

8. Colorado
9. LSU

5. USC(PAC 12)
12. WRIGHT STATE(HORIZON)

4. Texas Tech
13. TOLEDO(MAC)

6. Virginia Tech
11. VCU(A-10)

3. West Virginia
14. ABILENE CHRISTIAN(SOUTHLAND)

7. Rutgers
10. St. Louis

2. ALABAMA(SEC)
15. EASTERN WASHINGTON(BIG SKY)
 
Teams In BOLD = Current leader of conference in terms of conference standing. If a tie exists the tie-breaker is who’s ranked higher in the NET standings(as of 2/15/21).

*IVY League is NOT participating this season.*

Other teams NOT participating:

Bethune Cookman
Chicago State
University of Maryland-Eastern Shore
Howard
Maine
 
Top 10 on “S” Curve: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Alabama, Houston, Virginia, Villanova, Oklahoma
Last 4 BYES: St. Louis, UCLA, Seton Hall, Drake
Last 4 IN: North Carolina, Boise State, Colorado State, Uconn
First 4 OUT: Stanford, Saint Bonaventure, Maryland, Ole Miss,
Nest 4 OUT: Richmond, Syracuse, SMU, Wichita State
 
Of Note: The Selection committee is going back to the “S” Curve in terms of selecting the teams. With there being no regard for geography this season, you will get a true bracket of the #1 overall seed playing the #8 overall seed in the Regional Final should the bracket hold to form, and so on and so forth. This is unless, there needs to be procedural bumps throughout the bracket. For instance, Illinois is the #5 overall seed, but because they can not be placed with Michigan or Ohio State, they get placed with Baylor as the #2 overall seed.

The Quadrant System is as follows:

Quadrant 1 (Q1): Home (1-30)Neutral (1-50)Away (1-75)
Quadrant 2 (Q2): Home (31-75)Neutral (51-100)Away (76-135)
Quadrant 3 (Q3): Home (76-160)Neutral (101-200)Away (136-240)
Quadrant 4 (Q4): Home (161-357)Neutral (201-357)Away (241-357)
 
Top 12 seeds broken down (Plus the next 8 out) by conference:

A10:
St. Louis (10 seed)
VCU (11 seed)
St. Bonaventure (F4O)
Richmond (N4O)

AAC:
Houston (2 seed)
SMU (N4O)
Wichita State (N4O)

ACC:
Virginia (2 seed)
Florida State (5 seed)
Virginia Tech (6 seed)
Clemson (7 seed)
Louisville (8 seed)
North Carolina (11 seed)
Syracuse (N4O)

Big East:
Villanova (3 seed)
Creighton (4 seed)
Xavier (8 seed)
Seton Hall (11 seed)
UConn (12 seed)

Big 12:
Baylor (1 seed)
Oklahoma (3 seed)
West Virginia (3 seed)
Texas (4 seed)
Texas Tech (4 seed)
Kansas (6 seed)
Oklahoma State (7 seed)

Big Ten:
Michigan (1 seed)
Ohio State (1 seed)
Illinois (2 seed)
Iowa (3 seed)
Wisconsin (5 seed)
Purdue (6 seed)
Rutgers (7 seed)
Indiana (9 seed)
Minnesota (10 seed)
Maryland (F4O)

Horizon:
Wright State (12 seed)

MVC:
Loyola Chicago (10 seed)
Drake (11 seed)

MWC:
San Diego State (9 seed)
Boise State (11 seed)
Colorado State (12 seed)
Utah State (12 seed)

OVC:
Belmont (12 seed)

PAC 12:
USC (5 seed)
Colorado (8 seed)
Oregon (9 seed)
UCLA (10 seed)
Stanford (F4O)

SEC:
Alabama (2 seed)
Tennessee (4 seed)
Missouri (5 seed)
Arkansas (6 seed)
Florida (7 seed)
LSU (9 seed)
Ole Miss (F4O)

WCC:
Gonzaga (1 seed)
BYU (8 seed)
 
ericd7633 said:
Of Note: The Selection committee is going back to the “S” Curve in terms of selecting the teams. With there being no regard for geography this season, you will get a true bracket of the #1 overall seed playing the #8 overall seed in the Regional Final should the bracket hold to form, and so on and so forth. This is unless, there needs to be procedural bumps throughout the bracket. For instance, Illinois is the #5 overall seed, but because they can not be placed with Michigan or Ohio State, they get placed with Baylor as the #2 overall seed.

The Quadrant System is as follows:

Quadrant 1 (Q1): Home (1-30)Neutral (1-50)Away (1-75)
Quadrant 2 (Q2): Home (31-75)Neutral (51-100)Away (76-135)
Quadrant 3 (Q3): Home (76-160)Neutral (101-200)Away (136-240)
Quadrant 4 (Q4): Home (161-357)Neutral (201-357)Away (241-357)
Click to expand...

Honestly, I think they should be allowed to take MORE liberties this year since we've had a truncated schedule and no geogrpahic considerations.

Throw some more creative matchups together, and make sure teams from the same conference don't meet until the Elite 8 at least.
 
My E8 with this bracket

Gonzaga
Iowa

Baylor
Illinois

FSU
Oklahoma

OSU
WVU
 
I think the MVC really got the shaft here. I think their two good teams should be well higher than that.
 
jontaejones said:
I think the MVC really got the shaft here. I think their two good teams should be well higher than that.
Click to expand...

It's tough to grade those teams out. I'm always trying to rely on some sort of historical precedent. Mid majors with a bunch of wins, few losses, but not a ton of good wins, typically don't make the field or are double digits seeds. We have some precedent with Wichita State back in 2017 when they entered Selection Sunday with really great efficiency metrics but ended up as a 10 seed. I will say though, with the advent of the NET, this precedent might not matter, but I'm basing my seedings of those two off of those based on committee habits.
 
ericd7633 said:
It's tough to grade those teams out. I'm always trying to rely on some sort of historical precedent. Mid majors with a bunch of wins, few losses, but not a ton of good wins, typically don't make the field or are double digits seeds. We have some precedent with Wichita State back in 2017 when they entered Selection Sunday with really great efficiency metrics but ended up as a 10 seed. I will say though, with the advent of the NET, this precedent might not matter, but I'm basing my seedings of those two off of those based on committee habits.
Click to expand...
I think NET isn't used as much as we think it is looking at this year's early release and last year's too. Sane with Kenpom etc
 
jontaejones said:
Honestly, I think they should be allowed to take MORE liberties this year since we've had a truncated schedule and no geogrpahic considerations.

Throw some more creative matchups together, and make sure teams from the same conference don't meet until the Elite 8 at least.
Click to expand...

I would love for the committee to be more creative. It's almost like they go out of their way to avoid matchups that would be more intriguing. I'll never forget in 2007 when Indiana was a 7 and Texas Tech was a 10 and they didn't match them up.
 
jontaejones said:
I think the MVC really got the shaft here. I think their two good teams should be well higher than that.
Click to expand...

Loyola would be a very dangerous 2nd round matchup for Illinois
 
rmilia1 said:
I think NET isn't used as much as we think it is looking at this year's early release and last year's too. Sane with Kenpom etc
Click to expand...

I've always thought it was more of a grouping tool then an actual ranking. Which is dumb, but is what it is. Basically a way to define what a Q1/Q2 win is etc... It's tough because you only have one year of data since last year was canceled. Wofford was 13th in the NET in 2019 and was a 7 seed and they had a combined 10 Q1/Q2 wins. Drake has 5 thus far, Loyola has 5 as well. Loyola probably deserves to be higher, but I think today this is about where they'd land.
 
ericd7633 said:
I would love for the committee to be more creative. It's almost like they go out of their way to avoid matchups that would be more intriguing. I'll never forget in 2007 when Indiana was a 7 and Texas Tech was a 10 and they didn't match them up.
Click to expand...

Yea, this year.

I would love for Nova to play Iowa I think they are a good matchup.

I'd like to see Alabama because their starting PG trasnferred from Nova, etc.

In a year that has really lacked intrigue because of too many pauses, they need to inject some.
 
jontaejones said:
Yea, this year.

I would love for Nova to play Iowa I think they are a good matchup.

I'd like to see Alabama because their starting PG trasnferred from Nova, etc.

In a year that has really lacked intrigue because of too many pauses, they need to inject some.
Click to expand...
Man I'd love a Nova/Iowa game . Talk about fun
 
ericd7633 said:
It's tough to grade those teams out. I'm always trying to rely on some sort of historical precedent. Mid majors with a bunch of wins, few losses, but not a ton of good wins, typically don't make the field or are double digits seeds. We have some precedent with Wichita State back in 2017 when they entered Selection Sunday with really great efficiency metrics but ended up as a 10 seed. I will say though, with the advent of the NET, this precedent might not matter, but I'm basing my seedings of those two off of those based on committee habits.
Click to expand...

Typically both would have played in some early season tourney and won and lost some.

I think they need to give credit to Loyola because of the high NET, but we'll see what happens.
 
jontaejones said:
Typically both would have played in some early season tourney and won and lost some.

I think they need to give credit to Loyola because of the high NET, but we'll see what happens.
Click to expand...

I'd be okay with them giving Loyola a better seed than what I'm projecting at the moment. But I'm hesitant in that they actually will.
 
ericd7633 said:
I'd be okay with them giving Loyola a better seed than what I'm projecting at the moment. But I'm hesitant in that they actually will.
Click to expand...

I doubt they will either based on the early reveal, but they should ... it's their rating system.
 
jontaejones said:
I doubt they will either based on the early reveal, but they should ... it's their rating system.
Click to expand...
Thats what I dont get . You work to replace the RPI with a "better tool" then you don't seem to use the tool anyway
 
rmilia1 said:
Thats what I dont get . You work to replace the RPI with a "better tool" then you don't seem to use the tool anyway
Click to expand...

The NET does the same thing to the Mid Majors that the RPI did. It's still about who you beat and who you play. If you aren't a 1/2 loss non Power 6 team, you're more than likely not getting a top 4 seed.
 
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