I'm calling it.

Orlando_Eagles said:
This is well said…and I feel like it still only skims the surface of what we are facing. Working in the supply chain I’m seeing this clearly. Supply is a root of many evils here.

I would add to it that while unemployment improved some there are still gaps in retail and foodservice that are impacting service, and I think sales too.

Mrs had to stop at Kohls the other day for some returns. Being a red blooded American woman she also wanted to grab some things. 6pm on a weeknight and one cashier. That’s it. Took forever to check out.

There is still major headcount challenges in these sectors. It’s a shit job to begin with, now do it with limited supply coming in and pissed customers. No one wants to do the job.

If we could wave a wand over supply issues companies will need to hire to get that back up. Will they have reasonable access to capital to do it at that point?
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A $15 federally mandated minimum wage has impacted the service industry. The pandemic closed everything and now those minimum wages are being implemented and the overhead along with finding workers is killing those same industries. To move products, the supply chain hired those same low educated people so yes...there is a problem that grew and continues to grow as minimum wage is being implemented across the nation.

Your last question ... not so far. Prices to have the service industry do their thing for us has caused sticker shock...and inflation.
 
moxie said:
I was at target last friday. about 15 people in line for the self-checkout thingies because there was NOT.A.SINGLE.REGISTER.OPEN. I was so fucking pissed. I was thisclose to walking the fuck out with my full cart. What would they do to me? California doesn't prosecute theft under a thousand bucks or something. I'm getting ready to go full Falling Down pretty soon.
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Was in Home Depot to pick up a garden hose, new nozzle, some bug spray, charcoal and I should have got a buggy but the buggies were across the f'king parking lot and I just wanted to run in the garden section and be right out without traversing the entire fucking store.....



No cashier. Now I have to carry all this shit to the opposite side of the store. No buggy....Dumb f'ing lazy assed employees of Home Depot, about 5 of them....all fat as fuck....standing in the aisle blocking your path....watching folks struggle to use the self check out machines as that's all that was open.

WTF? And these lazy bastards want $18/hr. to watch us do their jobs?
 
RobBase (c) said:
The main two reasons the housing market crashed was 1) Sub-Prime lending. Let’s not argue about who forced them or why, or if the banks are evil yadda yadda

Let’s just agree they happened. Imagine I ask you to lend me $100 and everything about my credit history says you’re an idiot. Zero proof Rob can or will pay you back that 100 (let alone w interest). But for whatever reason, you give me your money anyways.

Obviously I don’t hold up my end of the bargain, ditch my loan, and you’re shit out of luck.

Now magnify that by millions, except now no longer are you out of the money you lent me, you have to sell my house to make a little of it back.

2) All kinds of loan types no longer offered: No income proof needed loans and similar types. Interest only Option ARMS with mega increases in payments after X amount of years etc…

So you had 1) people with no business owning homes, ditching them, forcing banks to sell at bargain basement prices killing home values and 2) All these giant balloon payments coming due people couldn’t afford. Had to sell or foreclose,

WORST PART: Total shitheads completely unaffected, saying fuck it and walking away from their own loans and filing bankruptcy under one spouses name, then turning around and buying some kick ass foreclosure for nothing. I know many assholes like this.

In short, none of the above is happening right now.
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I dont give a fuck about last time. I am not talking about last time. I'm talking about what is happening right now. It may not be easy for everyone to see. I am seeing it directly, and for different reasons. Not sure why you think the only reason for a market "adjustment" is what happened last time. Go look at our history, and boom and bust cycles. Its not happened for the same reasons every time.

Forget about the previous crash completely. PRICES ARE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE THEN, by at least 30%. Interest rates are steadily rising. Making homes even less affordable. At some point there isnt enough money in circulation, for too many to afford to live. Things will still crash due to that. I clearly stated this is completely different, with the exception that prices are inflated this time, not the shit loans. This is going to be a supply and demand issue, which drives any market. We may be headed into a homeless crisis like this country hasnt seen since the depression. I dont know that, and am not saying that is whats going to happen, but if there isnt enough money to pay for the rents/mortgages, what happens?


Plus your calling people shitheads for walking away from shit loans is stupid. its called a business decision, and the fucking cunt banks that knew they couldn't pay didn't care to fuck them. The banks themselves walk away from bad money all the time. Throwing good money after bad is just stupid no matter what. Also, the banks had insurance on many of those loans. They got anywhere from 60 to 80 percent from that, and then resold the houses anyway. they didnt lose shit, and got bailed out on top.
 
Imagine having so much out of control emotion and still believing you’re thinking clearly.
 
Peter Gozintite said:
I dont give a fuck about last time. I am not talking about last time. I'm talking about what is happening right now. It may not be easy for everyone to see. I am seeing it directly, and for different reasons. Not sure why you think the only reason for a market "adjustment" is what happened last time. Go look at our history, and boom and bust cycles. Its not happened for the same reasons every time.

Forget about the previous crash completely. PRICES ARE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE THEN, by at least 30%. Interest rates are steadily rising. Making homes even less affordable. At some point there isnt enough money in circulation, for too many to afford to live. Things will still crash due to that. I clearly stated this is completely different, with the exception that prices are inflated this time, not the shit loans. This is going to be a supply and demand issue, which drives any market. We may be headed into a homeless crisis like this country hasnt seen since the depression. I dont know that, and am not saying that is whats going to happen, but if there isnt enough money to pay for the rents/mortgages, what happens?


Plus your calling people shitheads for walking away from shit loans is stupid. its called a business decision, and the fucking cunt banks that knew they couldn't pay didn't care to fuck them. The banks themselves walk away from bad money all the time. Throwing good money after bad is just stupid no matter what. Also, the banks had insurance on many of those loans. They got anywhere from 60 to 80 percent from that, and then resold the houses anyway. they didnt lose shit, and got bailed out on top.
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k, good luck with your really wanting to be right.
 
moxie said:
Happy Chris Pratt GIF

Just biding my time and hoping I can buy when it bottoms out.

i was in title & escrow from about 2000 to 20008 when it all finally cratered. But even my dumb ass saw it coming. All these asshole, fast talking mortgage brokers putting together fucking idiotic, liar, predatory lending bullshit deals. Selling the payment (what was the bank in texas that let you do two mortgage payments a month, splitting them equally, just to sell the payment? :headscratch: ) It was insane, and as escrow personnel, I had to be "a neutral third party" and couldn't tell Juan & Maria that their agent, Jose was fucking them over with this ARM (and the origination fees). I'd see the 1003 with Juan making $20k a month as a "landscape architect" and Maria making another $15k as the owner of a cleaning company, when in reality, they were living hand to mouth as a laborer and a house cleaner. The asians preyed on the asians and the iranians did the same. It was disgusting. There were a few people that caught on when I'd point specific things out in the loan documents (trying my hardest not to wink & nod), but most were lulled by the phony "i'm your buddy! I'm one of you!" tactics the brokers used. But sure as shit, they'd default in a few months! There was one escrow officer at one of the companies I worked at that ended up doing jail time for mail & wire fraud for colluding with the mortgage brokers on deals with straw buyers.
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you hit my Cuban brother in law on the head there. He went after the Hispanic community here. He ended up doing a few years for fraud, after his father in law, somehow signed the loan papers, 2 days after he died.
 
RobBase (c) said:
k, good luck with your really wanting to be right.
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You keep talking about how I am completely wrong, because it isnt like last time. Ok. I didint say it was going to happen because its just like last time.
 
Imagine being directly tied to the buying market, and not being able to convince someone buying is STARTING to slow.
 
I know a couple guys that have the opinion that because rent is so high, its still viable to buy a ridiculously priced house, simply because you can rent it slightly higher than the mortgage. Interest rates are changing that.
 
In today’s episode of Reasonable Discussions with with Peter:

 
dikowt dowg said:
A $15 federally mandated minimum wage has impacted the service industry. The pandemic closed everything and now those minimum wages are being implemented and the overhead along with finding workers is killing those same industries. To move products, the supply chain hired those same low educated people so yes...there is a problem that grew and continues to grow as minimum wage is being implemented across the nation.

Your last question ... not so far. Prices to have the service industry do their thing for us has caused sticker shock...and inflation.
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To be fair….this is an ingredient in the shit stew as well. Supply chain is struggling with supply and what they can sell is sold higher due to things like this.

Personally, if this were the only thing and prices were up a tick or so as a result I would be fine with it. It’s just happening at an inopportune time.
 
Everybody buys based on monthly payment and not purchase price, so if rates go up, 1 of 2 things must happen... purchase price must come down, or lender/borrower payment to income ratio must go up.. is it 28%, 30%, more?

sure, you're seeing fewer purchases right now because sellers are still unwilling to accept that increased rates have fucked them so sales are down. At some point, sellers will bend over and take the hit or lenders/borrowers will share the pain.
 
williewilliejuan said:
USDA as well. FHA loans with a community second.
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I am not sure i understand all that (USDA?) . I just know i have a VA loan for my house and the money i saved not havin to put down a deposit ive been investing in finishing and improving instead. I thought FHA required at least a minimum of like 3-5% down or somethin
 
NU_FTW said:
I am not sure i understand all that (USDA?) . I just know i have a VA loan for my house and the money i saved not havin to put down a deposit ive been investing in finishing and improving instead. I thought FHA required at least a minimum of like 3-5% down or somethin
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VA loans go to 100% LTV. Loans through the USDA Rural Housing Services program also go to 100% LTV. FHA loans typically go to 96.5% LTV, but some borrowers can get a community second through a Household Finance Agency (often forgivable) that would let you go up to 110% CLTV and roll in all of your closing costs. Both USDA and HFA loans have income limits, though.
 
NU_FTW said:
I am not sure i understand all that (USDA?) . I just know i have a VA loan for my house and the money i saved not havin to put down a deposit ive been investing in finishing and improving instead. I thought FHA required at least a minimum of like 3-5% down or somethin
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It’s been a long while for me, so I’m out of the loop on current but I did have FHA before and I want to say we did 2-3%.

But, they also tacked a fee on top of the monthly payment for mortgage insurance or something Iike that since they get you in with such little personal skin on the mortgage.
 
RobBase (c) said:
In today’s episode of Reasonable Discussions with with Peter:

Click to expand...


That never happened. He was quite reasonable in his comments and you were the one who couldn't stand not to be "right".
 
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