SEC staying at 16 ... no surprise here

[Top Cat]

Missouri and Texas (especially when you consider where the University of Missouri is located) do fit in the South. It isn't as much of a stretch as you think.

Kansas City is the Big 12, St. Louis is the Big 10, and everything else is the SEC was always the joke I remember with Missouri when it came to realignment.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

the NBC deal expires soon doesn't it? I still expect them to pick a conference in the near future

Why? When you look at the future CFP projections, they are making close to what they would make in the B1G and they remain independent. I don't see it. Especially if they get NBC to tie in with the B1G deal so you have a noon B1G game followed by a 3:30 ND game. That's being discussed and their $15 million a year from NBC will go up.

I wasn't sure why they stayed independent until I saw this chart:

They make $15 million per year from NBC, and then about $10 million from the ACC. Add the $45 million above, and you get about $70 million. That's less than the $100 million+ they would get from the B1G, but they are a wealthy school, and they get to keep their independence.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

this

they only things I see happening is a possible ND move to the B!G highly unlikely and the Pac12/Big 12 might poach each other.

I heard the ACC buyout is 50 million until that TV contract is gone. - which is the REASON $EC is standing pat

The buyout is equivalent to the 1 year loss they're missing out on by NOT being in the SEC or B10. That's how crazy the earning differential is. They'd basically be a wash year 1 (earning the same amount they would by staying in the ACC + paying off the buyout) and would instantly start earning the extra $60 million the following year.

 

[Volbound1700]

Unless CFB economics change, there won't be a reason to take other teams. 10 years is a long time, and maybe the economics do change. But based on what they are now, it doesn't matter what the ACC doesn't. Either they make enough to earn a piece of the pie, or they don't. For now, they don't.

I think there is some value with a few ACC brands:

1. Clemson - Although I would watch this one. If Clemson goes back to normal Clemson, I imagine there brand isn't as hot
2. North Carolina - I think UNC would bring $$$$ and probably the most for the SEC based on new region
3. Florida State - Definitely brings value. I think SEC would grab as defensive measure against B1G

We likely take another ACC team like UVA or Duke to keep UNC happy.

SEC really needs men's basketball programs. Imagine if we added Duke, UNC, and Kansas. That would do wonders for SEC Basketball.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Why? When you look at the future CFP projections, they are making close to what they would make in the B1G and they remain independent. I don't see it. Especially if they get NBC to tie in with the B1G deal so you have a noon B1G game followed by a 3:30 ND game. That's being discussed and their $15 million a year from NBC will go up.

I wasn't sure why they stayed independent until I saw this chart:

They make $15 million per year from NBC, and then about $10 million from the ACC. Add the $45 million above, and you get about $70 million. That's less than the $100 million+ they would get from the B1G, but they are a wealthy school, and they get to keep their independence.

Does that include the SEC's new TV deal? And the B10 is set to announce theirs, which is supposed to be close to, if not over, 1 billion dollars.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I don't think the ACC stays stagnant until 2032; they wouldn't survive financially. There's really only two options (and most likely one will happen in the next 5 years). The ACC will expand (with a team like ND or someone in the B12/Pac12) or the few teams worth stealing in the ACC will get stolen. All it takes it one team pissed because they're not getting the same payday IE being able to compete at the same level financially - and the whole thing implodes. If Clemson or FSU decide enough is enough, I'm sure the SEC or B10 would take them in.

I don't think a team like Clemson is going to sit around making $60 million less than Rutgers every year for the next 10 years and I don't think the ACC has grounds to get the same kind of payday as the B10 and SEC have/will.

They have no option but to stay because (1) the GOR, and (2) no one will take them in the B1G or the SEC.

The best thing that could happen for the ACC is to get Miami and FSU good again. Then you would have FSU, Miami, and Clemson all good. Wouldn't help their contract now, but would help in a renegotiation at the end.

 

[Volbound1700]

Kansas City is the Big 12, St. Louis is the Big 10, and everything else is the SEC was always the joke I remember with Missouri when it came to realignment.

Agree. Those two cities fit better, culturally, with the B1G and Big12 but then again you could say the same thing about Nashville. However, a lot of Missouri fits very well in Southeastern Culture.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

this

they only things I see happening is a possible ND move to the B!G highly unlikely and the Pac12/Big 12 might poach each other.

I heard the ACC buyout is 50 million until that TV contract is gone. - which is the REASON $EC is standing pat

The second reason the SEC is standing pat is that no team in the ACC can deliver $100 million in revenue. The buyout may be $50 million but the GOR would cost any team that tried to leave half a billion.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think there is some value with a few ACC brands:

1. Clemson - Although I would watch this one. If Clemson goes back to normal Clemson, I imagine there brand isn't as hot
2. North Carolina - I think UNC would bring $$$$ and probably the most for the SEC based on new region
3. Florida State - Definitely brings value. I think SEC would grab as defensive measure against B1G

We likely take another ACC team like UVA or Duke to keep UNC happy.

SEC really needs men's basketball programs. Imagine if we added Duke, UNC, and Kansas. That would do wonders for SEC Basketball.

Sorry, but not even close. And SEC teams won't lose millions per year to keep someone happy. We don't have to. The economics just aren't there.

 

[Volbound1700]

The second reason the SEC is standing pat is that no team in the ACC can deliver $100 million in revenue. The buyout may be $50 million but the GOR would cost any team that tried to leave half a billion.

That is why I think the ACC survives until 2-3 years before the buy-out and teams won't leave until at least a year before buyout or if contract expires.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Does that include the SEC's new TV deal? And the B10 is set to announce theirs, which is supposed to be close to, if not over, 1 billion dollars.

That's just the CFP money. Not the conference contracts. Assumes a 12 teams CFP.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

That is why I think the ACC survives until 2-3 years before the buy-out and teams won't leave until at least a year before buyout or if contract expires.

And then will only break up if CFB economics have changed. Otherwise they better hope they can negotiate a better contract, but that will only happen if they get better at football.

 

[Volbound1700]

And then will only break up if CFB economics have changed. Otherwise they better hope they can negotiate a better contract, but that will only happen if they get better at football.

I still think UNC is going to be a very popular and heavily fought over brand. Ironically, all the rumors are that UNC wants to keep ACC together and likes current arrangement but they have explored options because, like everyone, they don't want to be left behind.

I agree with you in the fact that the costs to get them now is not there but I think UNC, FSU, and maybe a few others will be worth grabbing once the ACC GOR is gone. Clemson and FSU are popular because they tend to have strong fan following even when they are not good. Basically both have SEC-like fanbases. This is why Miami is further down the list despite having more titles and stronger history than both Clemson and FSU. Miami just doesn't have that fan following to make them profitable (granted if they got good again, that could change).

I agree though that 10-12 years is a long time and a lot could change.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

Good. Now only if we could cut 4 and go back to 12

 

[Volbound1700]

Good. Now only if we could cut 4 and go back to 12

Interestingly, I always wondered that if the SEC got a ton of teams, they could break them into separate divisions that resemble past conferences (like an ACC and Big12 division) and we have a smaller number of matchups with the other divisions and kind of restore the old SEC prior to expansions.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

Interestingly, I always wondered that if the SEC got a ton of teams, they could break them into separate divisions that resemble past conferences (like an ACC and Big12 division) and we have a smaller number of matchups with the other divisions and kind of restore the old SEC prior to expansions.

It doesn’t even have to be the traditional 12. 14 was too many in my eyes

 

[NinerSpartan]

Missouri and Texas (especially when you consider where the University of Missouri is located) do fit in the South. It isn't as much of a stretch as you think.

that's cool and all, but Missouri still isn't a southern state. If we're going based on culture, Louisville is a better fit in the ACC than Pitt, Syracuse, BC and any of the other northeastern mouth breathers

 

[NinerSpartan]

It doesn’t even have to be the traditional 12. 14 was too many in my eyes

if we're being honest 12 is too many teams

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

if we're being honest 12 is too many teams

12 is the perfect number to me. You can play an 8 game conference schedule and not go a million years without facing certain conference members. Just need to make a rule that requires at least two P5 OOC games for every team

 

[NinerSpartan]

12 is the perfect number to me. You can play an 8 game conference schedule and not go a million years without facing certain conference members. Just need to make a rule that requires at least two P5 OOC games for every team

yeah, but if you only have 10 you can play everyone in the conference.