This kind of statistical stuff is pretty popular on the GT boards (big surprise), so thought I would share….
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- Thread starter rfjeff9
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on the what now?
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You're not wrong. The overall rankings are pretty stupid this time of year, LSU and Texas are living off their preseason rankings which doesn't get fazed out until week 6. For me I just look at the offense / defense unadjusted efficiency ratings, I think it's a better version of total offense and total defense rankings.
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ESPN's FPI is pretty much the same
2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
Has Texas #6 and LSU #7
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Math and Statistics are crap until the final week because schedules are unbalanced at the beginning of the season.
For example, some teams have played tougher schedules with more Power 5 teams so of course their defensive and offensive rankings would be skewed.
Tennessee's offense is rated so high because of Akron and Ball State (and also a little due to Florida). Let's see where we are in November. Many of the other teams on the list are the same way as well.
Football is also still a game of emotion, confidence, etc. and math does not capture that.
Also going off OP, you cannot rate teams on whether they under/over achieved until the end of the season. Once again, Schedules are imbalanced.
For example, some teams have played tougher schedules with more Power 5 teams so of course their defensive and offensive rankings would be skewed.
Tennessee's offense is rated so high because of Akron and Ball State (and also a little due to Florida). Let's see where we are in November. Many of the other teams on the list are the same way as well.
Football is also still a game of emotion, confidence, etc. and math does not capture that.
Also going off OP, you cannot rate teams on whether they under/over achieved until the end of the season. Once again, Schedules are imbalanced.
Couldn't tell what counts as a Big time throw but I'll take it
And it is damn near impossible to accurately calculate or attach a number to what is going on in the brain of a 19-20 year old at any one point in time.