12 team CFP today

WhosYourDawggy

WhosYourDawggy

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This has been a crazy year what with UTjr playing really well, Bama not being what everyone thought they were (I posted numerous times that they weren't going to be as good as everyone was saying), and a lot of good teams that seem to be able to beat anyone on a given day. That Utah v USC game was a great way to end an awesome day of CFB.

Let's take a look at the 12 team CFP today, assuming high seed wins CCs:

1. UGA
2. tOSU
3. Clemson
4. TCU
5. UTjr
6. UM
7. Bama
8. Ole Miss
9. UCLA
10. Oregon
11. OkSU
12. USC

SEC - 4
PAC - 3
B1G - 2
B12 - 2
ACC - 1

Teams still in the hunt: Wake, Syracuse, Utah, PSU, KSU, Illinois, Ky, UT, Cincy, UNC, NCSU, MSU, Tulane round out the top 25. I don't think that 21-25 really have a chance ... so we have 20 teams after week 7 that really have a shot.

Let's play it out:

USC v. UTjr in Knoxville
OkSU v. UM in Ann Arbor
Oregon v. Bama in Tuscaloosa
UCLA v. Ole Miss in Oxford

Sign me up for that.

Playing it out to chalk:

UGA v. Ole Miss
tOSU v. Bama
Clemson v. UM
TCU v. UTjr.

Applying my biased thinking you get:

UGA v. UTjr
tOSU v. Clemson (I'll be a believer in UM when they beat tOSU)

That's some fun fucking football right there.
 
Wouldn't proposed 12 team not have usc but rather cinci as highest ranked 6th conference champion?
 
OlyDuck said:
Wouldn't proposed 12 team not have usc but rather cinci as highest ranked 6th conference champion?
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You are totally correct. I forgot the top G5 conference champ. Swap USC with Cincy.
 
I'm a coach/AD of a Tier 1 school looking at a 4 team playoff: I know there will probably be a few teams with 1 loss. I need to bolster my SOS. Other side of the coin: I run a small risk of that hard OOC game being my loss and there be many undefeated teams that year.

I'm the same coach/AD of the same Tier 1 looking at an 8 team playoff: I know if I'm one of the many one-loss teams, I get placed toward the top of that list. I don't need to worry about scheduling hard OOC.

The risk in a 4-Team Playoff of losing the hard OOC game and there being lots of undefeateds to push you out of the Playoff is very small.

Plus, you never listed an incentive for scheduling harder OOC in an 8-Team playoff... you just said there might be more breathing room than in a 4team scheme... I listed a disincentive for a Tier 1 team: having a second loss and losing that default spot at the top of the 1-loss teams.

For a tier 1 team, The first loss in a 4 team playoff scheme is much less devastating than the 2nd loss in an 8 team playoff scheme. I don't even think it's close

We will see less top teams scheduling good OOC games.

- ElTexan, 2014
 
ELTEXAN said:
I'm a coach/AD of a Tier 1 school looking at a 4 team playoff: I know there will probably be a few teams with 1 loss. I need to bolster my SOS. Other side of the coin: I run a small risk of that hard OOC game being my loss and there be many undefeated teams that year.

I'm the same coach/AD of the same Tier 1 looking at an 8 team playoff: I know if I'm one of the many one-loss teams, I get placed toward the top of that list. I don't need to worry about scheduling hard OOC.

The risk in a 4-Team Playoff of losing the hard OOC game and there being lots of undefeateds to push you out of the Playoff is very small.

Plus, you never listed an incentive for scheduling harder OOC in an 8-Team playoff... you just said there might be more breathing room than in a 4team scheme... I listed a disincentive for a Tier 1 team: having a second loss and losing that default spot at the top of the 1-loss teams.

For a tier 1 team, The first loss in a 4 team playoff scheme is much less devastating than the 2nd loss in an 8 team playoff scheme. I don't even think it's close

We will see less top teams scheduling good OOC games.

- ElTexan, 2014
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That might have been true in 2014 and an 8 team CFP. But, with a 12 team CFP you are going to have numerous 2 loss teams. If you played a pussy schedule - take UM this year - and have 1 loss, you might not get any better treatment than say Oregon who went and played UGA in Atlanta. We know in March Madness that SOS comes into play.

Last year the following teams would have made the 12-team CFP with 2 losses:

tOSU
Baylor
Ole Miss
OkSU
MichSU
Pitt
Utah with 3

In 2019, seven 2 loss teams, two 3 loss teams.

The other thing you couldn't have seen in 2014 was the aggressive OCC scheduling that is already going on. All the big schools are scheduling big time OOC - Bama, UGA, UF, tOSU, FSU, UT, OU, UM, MichSU, Clemson, LSU, AU, Arky ... etc. They are all playing each other. So, we don't have guess, they are scheduled. Some will drop off due to conference realignment - we had OU and TX and those will become IC games. We have UCLA and will be interesting to see if that survives their move to the B1G. And we had 4 years where we played 2 tough OOC in the same year. With the SEC going to 9 IC games some of those will get canceled.

Finally, you didn't see in 2014 the value in games that bring in 4 million sets of eyeballs. That's where the money is made, and that is why the networks are paying big bucks to the SEC and the B1G and will pay bigger than it seems to everyone else. They want big game inventory.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
That might have been true in 2014 and an 8 team CFP. But, with a 12 team CFP you are going to have numerous 2 loss teams. If you played a pussy schedule - take UM this year - and have 1 loss, you might not get any better treatment than say Oregon who went and played UGA in Atlanta. We know in March Madness that SOS comes into play.

Last year the following teams would have made the 12-team CFP with 2 losses:

tOSU
Baylor
Ole Miss
OkSU
MichSU
Pitt
Utah with 3

In 2019, seven 2 loss teams, two 3 loss teams.

The other thing you couldn't have seen in 2014 was the aggressive OCC scheduling that is already going on. All the big schools are scheduling big time OOC - Bama, UGA, UF, tOSU, FSU, UT, OU, UM, MichSU, Clemson, LSU, AU, Arky ... etc. They are all playing each other. So, we don't have guess, they are scheduled. Some will drop off due to conference realignment - we had OU and TX and those will become IC games. We have UCLA and will be interesting to see if that survives their move to the B1G. And we had 4 years where we played 2 tough OOC in the same year. With the SEC going to 9 IC games some of those will get canceled.

Finally, you didn't see in 2014 the value in games that bring in 4 million sets of eyeballs. That's where the money is made, and that is why the networks are paying big bucks to the SEC and the B1G and will pay bigger than it seems to everyone else. They want big game inventory.
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Yeah. They are scheduling tough in a 4 team format. So, yeah. Don’t have to guess. ElTexan. Right again.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
This has been a crazy year what with UTjr playing really well, Bama not being what everyone thought they were (I posted numerous times that they weren't going to be as good as everyone was saying), and a lot of good teams that seem to be able to beat anyone on a given day. That Utah v USC game was a great way to end an awesome day of CFB.

Let's take a look at the 12 team CFP today, assuming high seed wins CCs:

1. UGA
2. tOSU
3. Clemson
4. TCU
5. UTjr
6. UM
7. Bama
8. Ole Miss
9. UCLA
10. Oregon
11. OkSU
12. USC

SEC - 4
PAC - 3
B1G - 2
B12 - 2
ACC - 1

Teams still in the hunt: Wake, Syracuse, Utah, PSU, KSU, Illinois, Ky, UT, Cincy, UNC, NCSU, MSU, Tulane round out the top 25. I don't think that 21-25 really have a chance ... so we have 20 teams after week 7 that really have a shot.

Let's play it out:

USC v. UTjr in Knoxville
OkSU v. UM in Ann Arbor
Oregon v. Bama in Tuscaloosa
UCLA v. Ole Miss in Oxford

Sign me up for that.

Playing it out to chalk:

UGA v. Ole Miss
tOSU v. Bama
Clemson v. UM
TCU v. UTjr.

Applying my biased thinking you get:

UGA v. UTjr
tOSU v. Clemson (I'll be a believer in UM when they beat tOSU)

That's some fun fucking football right there.
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lol UT would make it to the expanded playoff.. we are beating osu this week, then Kstate, then TCU
 
ELTEXAN said:
Yeah. They are scheduling tough in a 4 team format. So, yeah. Don’t have to guess. ElTexan. Right again.
Click to expand...
You literally said, "We will see less top teams scheduling good OOC games." - so, no, ElTexan is not right again.

In fact, teams started scheduling tougher OOC in or around 2018/2019, but with an emphasis on starting in 2026. You won't believe what contract expires in 2025. Yep, the CFP.

Now, I let you come to the adult table to talk but one more stupid response like you often do and I'm going to send you back to the kiddies table.
 
Thiefery said:
lol UT would make it to the expanded playoff.. we are beating osu this week, then Kstate, then TCU
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Your team this year is actually a great example of why the 12-team CFP works - you lose your QB early in the game against Bama and almost still win. Then you lose to TT. Now, that Ewers is back, and if you run the table you'd be a shoo-in for the 12-team CFP. Not sure a two-loss B12 CC is getting in to a 4 team CFP. Exactly what the 12 team format allows for.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
You literally said, "We will see less top teams scheduling good OOC games." - so, no, ElTexan is not right again.

In fact, teams started scheduling tougher OOC in or around 2018/2019, but with an emphasis on starting in 2026. You won't believe what contract expires in 2025. Yep, the CFP.

Now, I let you come to the adult table to talk but one more stupid response like you often do and I'm going to send you back to the kiddies table.
Click to expand...
I said that in an EIGHT TEAM format, you’d see that. Dunce

Another dumb fuck who can’t read. This is a COLLEGE sports forum, right???
 
ELTEXAN said:
I said that in an EIGHT TEAM format, you’d see that. Dunce

Another dumb fuck who can’t read. This is a COLLEGE sports forum, right???
Click to expand...
Back to the kiddies table you go. You literally typed the following:

For a tier 1 team, The first loss in a 4 team playoff scheme is much less devastating than the 2nd loss in an 8 team playoff scheme. I don't even think it's close

We will see less top teams scheduling good OOC games.

That's the opposite of what happened. More teams scheduled good OOC games.

Shoo, leave the adults to talk.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Back to the kiddies table you go. You literally typed the following:

For a tier 1 team, The first loss in a 4 team playoff scheme is much less devastating than the 2nd loss in an 8 team playoff scheme. I don't even think it's close

We will see less top teams scheduling good OOC games.

That's the opposite of what happened. More teams scheduled good OOC games.

Shoo, leave the adults to talk.
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Yes. LESS in an eight team scheme. Jesus you’re fucking stupid.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
take UM this year - and have 1 loss, you might not get any better treatment than say Oregon who went and played UGA in Atlanta
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Oregon's CFP hopes ended in week 1 this year and NO ONE is going to give a team bonus points for losing to any team by 46.

What would get Oregon bonus points. If they had scheduled Georgia State, in your scenario, instead of Georgia. Now they aren't a 1 loss team. They are undefeated.
 
NewPhoneWhoDis said:
Oregon's CFP hopes ended in week 1 this year and NO ONE is going to give a team bonus points for losing to any team by 46.

What would get Oregon bonus points. If they had scheduled Georgia State, in your scenario, instead of Georgia. Now they aren't a 1 loss team. They are undefeated.
Click to expand...

No they didn't. You always speak in absolutes. Are Oregon's chances slim? Yes, but they've looked to have shown great improvement since that week 1 self destruction. They played very poorly and Georgia played dang near perfect.

There are quite a few instances of teams getting blown out in one game and winning another against the same team in the same year. LSU and Bama on 2012 and FSU-Florida in 96 are two I remembered off the top of my head
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
This has been a crazy year what with UTjr playing really well, Bama not being what everyone thought they were (I posted numerous times that they weren't going to be as good as everyone was saying), and a lot of good teams that seem to be able to beat anyone on a given day. That Utah v USC game was a great way to end an awesome day of CFB.

Let's take a look at the 12 team CFP today, assuming high seed wins CCs:

1. UGA
2. tOSU
3. Clemson
4. TCU
5. UTjr
6. UM
7. Bama
8. Ole Miss
9. UCLA
10. Oregon
11. OkSU
12. USC

SEC - 4
PAC - 3
B1G - 2
B12 - 2
ACC - 1

Teams still in the hunt: Wake, Syracuse, Utah, PSU, KSU, Illinois, Ky, UT, Cincy, UNC, NCSU, MSU, Tulane round out the top 25. I don't think that 21-25 really have a chance ... so we have 20 teams after week 7 that really have a shot.

Let's play it out:

USC v. UTjr in Knoxville
OkSU v. UM in Ann Arbor
Oregon v. Bama in Tuscaloosa
UCLA v. Ole Miss in Oxford

Sign me up for that.

Playing it out to chalk:

UGA v. Ole Miss
tOSU v. Bama
Clemson v. UM
TCU v. UTjr.

Applying my biased thinking you get:

UGA v. UTjr
tOSU v. Clemson (I'll be a believer in UM when they beat tOSU)

That's some fun fucking football right there.
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You would be signing up for fools gold if you bought tickets right now because this list is going to change drastically. A 12-team playoff is a paper tiger because it's going to produce a lot of blowouts.

I mean does anyone really want to see a rematch of Georgia vs Oregon except for OD?

Honestly, the field should be cut to 8 if they want to expand and just play the other teams in bowl games. In fact, I would argue the bowl system needs to be reworked more than the playoff so that better matchups are generated.
 
Thiefery said:
lol UT would make it to the expanded playoff.. we are beating osu this week, then Kstate, then TCU
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The rusty cows may well win those. But they’ll need to play better than they did against Tech and ISU. Unless okie lite, TCU and K-State all throw in one of their clunker games then the cows will prevail.
 
fishinabarrel said:
No they didn't. You always speak in absolutes. Are Oregon's chances slim? Yes, but they've looked to have shown great improvement since that week 1 self destruction. They played very poorly and Georgia played dang near perfect.

There are quite a few instances of teams getting blown out in one game and winning another against the same team in the same year. LSU and Bama on 2012 and FSU-Florida in 96 are two I remembered off the top of my head
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Tell me the scenario where Oregon gets in? I will wait patiently to hear this.

If Oregon had lost a good game to Georgia - then yes, they'd have a shot. They lost by 46.

Which one loss team would Oregon be picked over?
 
Can't wait to watch a bunch of overmatched blowout games to start the playoffs! Hopefully someone can knock out all the good teams for us so we have an easier path to a national title.
 
If Oregon wins out they will certainly be in the discussion against other one loss teams for the CFP.

The reason is it's known the most progress is made between week 1 and week 2 of the CFB season.

IMO Oregon and tOSU have made the most progress between weeks 1 and 2.

The CFP is about putting the best teams in at the end of the regular season and CCG's.

Not the best teams of week 1.
 
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