My thoughts:
Teams that should have been ranked and who they should have replaced:
1. Kansas State > BYU - Kansas State was a program that was building up. They should have been ranked. I would have expect them somewhere in the 20-25 range. I thought Kansas State was a dark horse for the Big12 coming into the season.
2. Tennessee > Houston - I cannot blame this one. All the computers and the hype was that Tennessee was turning things around but Tennessee has gotten this hype in the past and not followed through with it
3. LSU > NC State - I am not sure what NC State showed to be ranked so high. LSU should have been in the polls. LSU had a softer schedule and one where they could make a run. They had the talent. I had LSU finishing somewhere around 9-3 and in top 20 so I was very close. I didn't envision them winning the SEC West though.
Overrated:
Texas A&M - This is the top team that stands out as being wrong. To be fair, though, who could have projected they would be as bad as they were? I thought 6 was too high for them but I was thinking they would be 10-2 or 11-1 at best and 8-4 at worse. Based on that, 9-3 sounded about right. They really screwed up
Oklahoma - I thought starting them at #9 after all they lost in the offseason was not fair/reasonable expectations. Oklahoma should have been in the lower half of the top 25. I expected them to struggle but not as bad as they did struggle. I feel like making a bowl game was kind of a win for them.
Notre Dame - Similar to Oklahoma, this was another head-scratcher for me. I thought they lost too much to be in top 10. I felt like they were ranked high to hype up that Ohio State season opener.
Miami - Another one that stands out as a head-scratcher. Sure they had talent but I have NOT seen enough from Miami to build confidence that they were a top 15 team and that turned out true
Oklahoma State - I did NOT guess this one. If anything, I thought they were under ranked and I was expecting Oklahoma State to win the Big12.
Surprise teams:
TCU - Raise your hand if you picked them because I didn't... I don't think anyone had them in their preseason poll
Tennessee - Signs were there but no one, not even me, saw an 11-2 season coming. I was banking on a 9-3 season with losses to Alabama, Georgia, and someone else (either Florida, LSU, or South Carolina)
Washington - I don't have much to say about this one. I did not see it coming but I admit that I am not always the expect in the Pac12. I know they would be competitive. I felt like the Pac12 was a stronger league in 2023 and had more visibility than past years
Penn State - I think that I had them in my top 10. I see they were not in the poll at all so that was a big miss.
Florida State - Not too big of a surprise. The ACC was historically bad in 2021 so it was open in 2022 for teams to make runs in it
Pittsburgh - Ironically, they still finished ranked. I pegged them for 9-3 in regular season and they went 8-4. I feel like 2022 was disappointing for this team because the ACC Coastal was wide open for Pitt to win it and they choked in the 4th quarter in several games (notably Georgia Tech, Louisville, and North Carolina).
Tulane - Tulane was good in 2021 so this one wasn't as big of a surprise but I did not see them going 12-2 and winning the American
SEC top 25 teams - The SEC tends to always have a couple of teams that are unranked that end up ranked and teams that are ranked that fall off. This trend continued this year with Ole Miss, UK, Arkansas, and Texas A&M all dropping out while Tennessee, LSU, Miss State, and South Carolina filled their place.
The unranked teams all showed potential coming into the season but i would have probably stuck with the preseason slate. Ole Miss came down to whether Kiffin could replace their QB and he did not. Arkansas and UK were disappointing but showed potential at times. South Carolina was always a dark horse with Spencer Rattler. Explained LSU and Tennessee already. Miss State looked like a 7-5 or 8-4 type team coming into the season. I have also went at length with Texas A&M and they are probably the most discussed preseason miss of the group.
