FSU Leaving the ACC?

[Wild Turkey]

B1G isn't adding any school that doesn't have AAU standing unless it's ND. So there is no way that FSU or Clemson get a second look. Duke UVA, UNC, GT, and Miami would be the only targets from the ACC. They all have a chance for an invite, but not for 8-9 years.

And any team can change their fortunes in that amount if time (see Clemson). I could see the right coach landing at one of these to bring wins and get the fans more interested and increase their stock in the eyes of B1G and SEC to move the needle. After all, 10 years ago nobody would have included Clemson in this SEC expansion discussion. Now they are the knee jerk first school anyone thinks about. Not saying these 5 schools above will be winning a natty, but I DO remember when UVA was good and held their own against anybody and had a better national following.

You nailed an important part about Clemson in that before Dabo and the national championships would anyone put them as a 100mm school? I don’t think you do and if they go a decade of not having the resources to compete it could go south quickly.

For a long time FSU only competed in state with Florida and Miami but now there is South Florida, UCF, FAU and everyone and their brother are trying to recruit Florida players. A decade might kill them also.

When the dust settles the SEC and B1G are fine with what they have so time and value are important parts of the equation. ACC schools may not have the time and that could cost them the value.

We are looking at a future that has two super conferences in the B1G and SEC and everyone else will be more like the G5. Now I could be wrong and the playoff expansion changes that but I’m not sure it will.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

B1G isn't adding any school that doesn't have AAU standing unless it's ND. So there is no way that FSU or Clemson get a second look. Duke UVA, UNC, GT, and Miami would be the only targets from the ACC. They all have a chance for an invite, but not for 8-9 years.

And any team can change their fortunes in that amount if time (see Clemson). I could see the right coach landing at one of these to bring wins and get the fans more interested and increase their stock in the eyes of B1G and SEC to move the needle. After all, 10 years ago nobody would have included Clemson in this SEC expansion discussion. Now they are the knee jerk first school anyone thinks about. Not saying these 5 schools above will be winning a natty, but I DO remember when UVA was good and held their own against anybody and had a better national following.

Totally agree. People discout the AAU aspect of this, but unless they can earn a full share, or are willing to take a partial share, if they aren't AAU they aren't going to the B1G. And that's another thing that will stop expansion absent a total turning of CFB upside down.

 

[Volbound1700]

You nailed an important part about Clemson in that before Dabo and the national championships would anyone put them as a 100mm school? I don’t think you do and if they go a decade of not having the resources to compete it could go south quickly.

For a long time FSU only competed in state with Florida and Miami but now there is South Florida, UCF, FAU and everyone and their brother are trying to recruit Florida players. A decade might kill them also.

When the dust settles the SEC and B1G are fine with what they have so time and value are important parts of the equation. ACC schools may not have the time and that could cost them the value.

We are looking at a future that has two super conferences in the B1G and SEC and everyone else will be more like the G5. Now I could be wrong and the playoff expansion changes that but I’m not sure it will.

True. however, Clemson always had a larger stadium/fanbase than let's say UVA and other ACC schools.

Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia Tech are the teams that I could see rising up or have potential to get back to a higher level and improve their stock. On the outside might be Syracuse as they do have a somewhat dedicated fanbase, they are just not winning as well.

 

[rfjeff9]

True. however, Clemson always had a larger stadium/fanbase than let's say UVA and other ACC schools.

Georgia Tech, Miami, and Virginia Tech are the teams that I could see rising up or have potential to get back to a higher level and improve their stock. On the outside might be Syracuse as they do have a somewhat dedicated fanbase, they are just not winning as well.

It would be interesting to see the numbers on fanbase for Clemson then vs now. I often wonder how much of an increase a school can get from fair weather or bandwagon fans after a program busts wide open and makes noise.

Granted apathy sets in over time when a team becomes mediocre like Clemson did for 40 years, so how much would be returning old time fans and how much fair weather that could shift with the direction of the program?

How much money/eyes/merchandising could Virginia add over what they can today if they started winning ACC championships to such an extent that B1G might take a close look?

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

With respect to AAU, Nebraska had AAU when they joined the B1G and later lost it. And ND is in a separate category. Clemson and FSU I think are not going to move that needle unless they get AAU accreditation. It's important enough to them that for at least B1G, accredation matters.

But that's kinda my point - who is to say that the planets align for Miami again and they finally ARE back and win a couple natty. Suddenly it's Miami and not FSU that everyone is talking about joining SEC if a Florida team is considered at all.

We agree. I'm just throwing it out there that if these schools can change their fortunes by the time GOR no longer matters, it's believable that two entirely different schools besides Clemson and FSU are considered for SEC and B1G over whats being discussed today. For that matter, if Clemson did get AAU then perhaps B1G comes calling.

We will see in another decade or so.

I'll toss this out ... unless other teams can figure out how to counter the quality of football in the SEC, none of this will come to pass. Think about it ... once the CFP goes to 12 teams, you will have 4 SEC teams in the CFP almost every year. For now, UGA and Bama will be in almost every year. Then throw in LSU, Texas, OU, UTjr, UF if they ever get going, etc. The disparity will continue to grow unless other teams can figure out how to compete.

I've said this often here ... I know it's not best for CFB. I love that the SEC has really good teams, we have great fans, we get the ratings, etc. But I love CFB in general. I had way more fun in Indy when we had a close game than the blowout in LA. I mean that Peach Bowl with tOSU was unreal fun. I hope the ACC, PAC, B12 can figure out how to get better and better because when more teams are good, the sport is better.

 

[Volbound1700]

It would be interesting to see the numbers on fanbase for Clemson then vs now. I often wonder how much of an increase a school can get from fair weather or bandwagon fans after a program busts wide open and makes noise.

Granted apathy sets in over time when a team becomes mediocre like Clemson did for 40 years, so how much would be returning old time fans and how much fair weather that could shift with the direction of the program?

How much money/eyes/merchandising could Virginia add over what they can today if they started winning ACC championships to such an extent that B1G might take a close look?

Clemson hasn't necessarily been mediocre though. Even before Dabo Swinney, they had some decent seasons with Tommy Bowden including a couple of top 10 finishes. They had a National Title in the 1980s and a lot of wins.

They were still in the upper half of the ACC but I definitely agree they were behind FSU, Miami, and even Virginia Tech in the early days of the ACC (you could also argue Georgia Tech and NC State as well but both were very up and down).

 

[outofyourmind]

The disparity will continue to grow unless other teams can figure out how to compete.

Not sure how this is going to happen.
Every team out there had 150 years to get better, but didn't.

They were perfectly happy taking the money and not improving their football programs.

 

[Thiefery]

Nebraska was AAU when they joined the Big 10.

They lost AAU status when the AAU changed their requirements in that 'research departments needed to be located "on campus".

The University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) is a leading medical research center, but is located in Omaha.

don't forget, BiG schools voted to keep you out, unlike mean ol vindictive UT who voted for y'all to KEEP your AAU status

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Agree. My point is that I don't think there are hard stop categories.

I don't think there is a set TV money, an Academic preference, attendance preference, geographical limitation, etc. They are all MAJOR factors but I think it ultimately comes down to votes for each case.

If Clemson and FSU approached the B1G hard, I can almost guarantee you they get views even without AAU. There might be detractors in the B1G with it but both schools bring a new market with sizable fan bases (right now).

However, the AAU argument is why I think Cal-Stanford stand a chance. They are academic powerhouses that solve the West Coast travel issues and bring a new market even though they don't meet the 4 million (or even 3 million) viewership requirement.

I totally disagree. Never underestimate the academic arrogance of the B1G, much of it well deserved. AAU has always been a prerequisite. They aren't going to abandon that to bring in schools that don't fit their academic profile and barely make them any money or more likely cause them to lose money. If they want a strategic foothold in the southeast, they will go after UVa, Duke, UNC, maybe GT, and maybe Miami. But none of them can come close to paying their own way and would have to take uneven shares forever.

 

[Volbound1700]

I'll toss this out ... unless other teams can figure out how to counter the quality of football in the SEC, none of this will come to pass. Think about it ... once the CFP goes to 12 teams, you will have 4 SEC teams in the CFP almost every year. For now, UGA and Bama will be in almost every year. Then throw in LSU, Texas, OU, UTjr, UF if they ever get going, etc. The disparity will continue to grow unless other teams can figure out how to compete.

I've said this often here ... I know it's not best for CFB. I love that the SEC has really good teams, we have great fans, we get the ratings, etc. But I love CFB in general. I had way more fun in Indy when we had a close game than the blowout in LA. I mean that Peach Bowl with tOSU was unreal fun. I hope the ACC, PAC, B12 can figure out how to get better and better because when more teams are good, the sport is better.

Not sure of Alabama's future if Saban were to retire but good points. Georgia doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.

UF looked great with Urban Meyer but he left. We don't know 5-10 years down the line who the powers will be in the SEC. The only one that we can 100% be sure on right now is Georgia because Kirby Smart has a great system and he doesn't seem to be going anywhere at the moment. LSU and Tennessee look promising but that can always change. LSU looked promising after 2019 as well.

 

[Volbound1700]

I totally disagree. Never underestimate the academic arrogance of the B1G, much of it well deserved. AAU has always been a prerequisite. They aren't going to abandon that to bring in schools that don't fit their academic profile and barely make them any money or more likely cause them to lose money. If they want a strategic foothold in the southeast, they will go after UVa, Duke, UNC, maybe GT, and maybe Miami. But none of them can come close to paying their own way and would have to take uneven shares forever.

They would abandon it for Notre Dame in a heart beat.

However, I do see the ACC schools you list as being more likely than Clemson and FSU. Key is that most of those don't bring the $$$ right now. Clemson and FSU bring more $$$ and fans.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

You nailed an important part about Clemson in that before Dabo and the national championships would anyone put them as a 100mm school? I don’t think you do and if they go a decade of not having the resources to compete it could go south quickly.

For a long time FSU only competed in state with Florida and Miami but now there is South Florida, UCF, FAU and everyone and their brother are trying to recruit Florida players. A decade might kill them also.

When the dust settles the SEC and B1G are fine with what they have so time and value are important parts of the equation. ACC schools may not have the time and that could cost them the value.

We are looking at a future that has two super conferences in the B1G and SEC and everyone else will be more like the G5. Now I could be wrong and the playoff expansion changes that but I’m not sure it will.

The only thing I would clarify is the use of "super conferences." That is a measure of profitability, not size. They won't grow to 24 or 32 teams, IMO. I do see an S2 (super 2), P3, and G5 happening. This will be exacerbated by the 12 teams CFP where at least half the teams will be P2 teams, possibly as many as 7 of 12.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Not sure of Alabama's future if Saban were to retire but good points. Georgia doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.

UF looked great with Urban Meyer but he left. We don't know 5-10 years down the line who the powers will be in the SEC. The only one that we can 100% be sure on right now is Georgia because Kirby Smart has a great system and he doesn't seem to be going anywhere at the moment. LSU and Tennessee look promising but that can always change. LSU looked promising after 2019 as well.

Certainly when Satan leaves, Bama will have to show that their system can be run by another coach. That will be the most important hire they have ever made, other than hiring Satan. But if they get the right guy, they won't be going anywhere. They have too much going for them. They won't be the level under Satan, but they will be a top 4 SEC school for many years to come.

Same with Smart leaves. I don't see him at UGA more than another 10 years. The pressure is too much.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Nebraska was AAU when they joined the Big 10.

They lost AAU status when the AAU changed their requirements in that 'research departments needed to be located "on campus".

The University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) is a leading medical research center, but is located in Omaha.

My understanding was that the AAU also changed their metrics so agricultural research either didn’t count or was discounted.

So basically they are shit on the farmer kind of assholes.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

They would abandon it for Notre Dame in a heart beat.

However, I do see the ACC schools you list as being more likely than Clemson and FSU. Key is that most of those don't bring the $$$ right now. Clemson and FSU bring more $$$ and fans.

We all know that ND stands all alone ... of course anyone grabs them. Plus, even though they aren't AAU, they are a top undergraduate program that fits the academic profile except for the research. They are ranked higher than any B1G school other than Northwestern. They also would more than pay their own way. FSU and Clemson just don't have that cache, although they have both become much better academic schools over the past decade.

 

[Volbound1700]

Not sure how this is going to happen.
Every team out there had 150 years to get better, but didn't.

They were perfectly happy taking the money and not improving their football programs.

Yeah, this is where I consider the ACC to be a MAJOR FAILURE. In my opinion, the Big12 (who was highly dependent on Texas) and Pac12 (again dependent only on California) did not have the resources to keep up.

The ACC had all of the potential in the world and blew it. People forget during the 2003/2004 expansion how much hype was around the ACC.

FSU and Miami were coming off great stretches and were both top 10 programs. Virginia Tech was up with Frank Beamer. Clemson showed promise. Maryland had back to back 10 win seasons. Georgia Tech was still very relevant. NC State was a regular contender.

People talked about the ACC surpassing the SEC and everyone as Kings of College Football. It was a league that included the following media markets:

Boston, New York City, Washington DC, Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, Tampa, etc. They had access to the recruiting areas of Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, Carolinas, and vitally, Florida.

There is no reason the ACC should have been an after thought.

The issue was that immediately after the expansion, FSU and Miami tanked. Virginia Tech kept rolling for a little bit but they won no titles and had head scratching losses (like William & Mary) or typically lost their BCS Bowl Game.

Georgia Tech also declined in favor of Georgia.

Meanwhile SEC brought in coaches like Mark Richt, Nick Saban, Tommy Tubberville, Urban Meyer, and Bobby Petrino that had many of their programs rise to the top and win at a high level.

ACC didn't keep up because, outside of Dabo Swinney at Clemson, they did not hire the right guys. The biggest culprit behind the ACC Collapse is Miami.

For all purposes, ACC should be a top tier league and should have NOT been poached or had to sign crappy TV deals.

 

[Wild Turkey]

The only thing I would clarify is the use of "super conferences." That is a measure of profitability, not size. They won't grow to 24 or 32 teams, IMO. I do see an S2 (super 2), P3, and G5 happening. This will be exacerbated by the 12 teams CFP where at least half the teams will be P2 teams, possibly as many as 7 of 12.

I’m not sure there will be a P3.

The P2 exist now.

I assume you are saying the PAC, Big12 and ACC make up the P3. I’m not sure the PAC survives in its current form. We are going to have to come up with new names.

Power 2
Traditional 2 - Big 12 & ACC
Group of 5

 

[Volbound1700]

We all know that ND stands all alone ... of course anyone grabs them. Plus, even though they aren't AAU, they are a top undergraduate program that fits the academic profile except for the research. They are ranked higher than any B1G school other than Northwestern. They also would more than pay their own way. FSU and Clemson just don't have that cache, although they have both become much better academic schools over the past decade.

I get that but there are only so many options out there for the B1G. I know you say they can stand pat and not do anything but they, more than the SEC, are probably under pressure to expand because of the gulley between the B1G and the SEC on the field. This factor makes Clemson and FSU attractive as it gets quality football programs in SEC recruiting regions. Miami, in theory, checks that box as well. I am not sure about the other ACC schools.

Now if Academics wasn't an issue, Louisville would be high on people's radar but they are not even in the conversation (and shouldn't be). Louisville has been pretty solid in most sports the last 10-15 years.

 

[Volbound1700]

Certainly when Satan leaves, Bama will have to show that their system can be run by another coach. That will be the most important hire they have ever made, other than hiring Satan. But if they get the right guy, they won't be going anywhere. They have too much going for them. They won't be the level under Satan, but they will be a top 4 SEC school for many years to come.

Same with Smart leaves. I don't see him at UGA more than another 10 years. The pressure is too much.

People said the same thing about Tennessee in late 2000s. Alabama went through the wilderness from 1997-2008. The pressure can actually backfire if the Admin doesn't handle it correctly.

Georgia does have, in my opinion, built-in resources that Alabama and Tennessee do not (notably being the only real contender right now in one of the larger states in the country. Georgia outstrips both Alabama and Tennessee in population, recruiting, and media market access).

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I get that but there are only so many options out there for the B1G. I know you say they can stand pat and not do anything but they, more than the SEC, are probably under pressure to expand because of the gulley between the B1G and the SEC on the field. This factor makes Clemson and FSU attractive as it gets quality football programs in SEC recruiting regions. Miami, in theory, checks that box as well. I am not sure about the other ACC schools.

Now if Academics wasn't an issue, Louisville would be high on people's radar but they are not even in the conversation (and shouldn't be). Louisville has been pretty solid in most sports the last 10-15 years.

IMO, you are falling into the expansion for the sake of expansion school of thought. The B1G isn't saying, we need to go get better schools so we can compete with the SEC. They already have a contract bigger than ours. They will do fine money wise. And you honestly think they are wanting to bring in Clemson and FSU so that one of those schools can beat the SEC so that the B1G feels good about that? Nah.