While I agree the ACC is in trouble, the question is why and what can be done about it.
The reason why is that most of their teams are not competitive, and their fanbase is smaller, and they aren't engaged.
Then you have to aske why the SEC and the B1G are making so much money. It's not that they are lucky. It's because they play way better football (SEC and to a lesser degree B1G), and they have very large fanbases and alumni bases (B1G and to a lesser degree SEC). They are making money because their fans are excited, follow the teams, and watch them. And, they will be getting multiple teams into the CFP which is about to go from $450 million to $1.8 billion.
- SEC - UGA, UA, OU, UT, ATM, UF, AU, UTjr
- B1G - tOSU, UM, PSU, USC
- ACC - Clemson, FSU
Knowing why the SEC and the B1G are getting the big bucks, and the ACC can't getting more money, the question is why would the SEC and the B1G be interested in the teams that want to leave the ACC. The answer is that they don't and won't for the most part. When each team is going to be making over $100 million, anyone that joins your conference has to be able to generate $100 million. If they can't do that, the SEC/B1G won't want them. They don't expand for grins. The expand because it means something to add teams.
With that in mind, ND, FSU and Clemson are the only 3 that likely can earn their fair share - media plus CFP shares. None of the others come close. So, they may want to leave the ACC, but the reason they want to leave is why most of them won't be welcome where they will make more money.
Here are some numbers to back this up:
10 | Clemson — 2.59M | ACC | P5 |
15 | Florida State — 2.03M | ACC | P5 |
43 | NC State — 881K | ACC | P5 |
46 | North Carolina — 849K | ACC | P5 |
48 | Syracuse — 841K | ACC | P5 |
49 | Georgia Tech — 837K | ACC | P5 |
56 | Pittsburgh — 650K | ACC | P5 |
59 | Miami FL— 608K | ACC | P5 |
60 | Wake Forest — 523K | ACC | P5 |
63 | Louisville — 496K | ACC | P5 |
70 | Boston College — 322K | ACC | P5 |
76 | Virginia Tech — 264K | ACC | P5 |
79 | Virginia — 237K | ACC | P5 |
91 | Duke — 115.7K | ACC | P5 |
Note that teams like BC, VaTech, UVa, Duke are so bad there are half a dozen or more, in the case of Duke, G5 teams that draw more viewers. See below.
So, that's the media money. Now take the next big chunk of money, CFP payouts, and other than Clemson, FSU, and then an occasional UNC, NCSU, and Miami, they aren't going to get much more than a share per year. Contrast that to the SEC and the B1G that will regularly get 3 to 4 times the CFP shares. In that shares will also be apportioned to the winners, the SEC's shares could be 5 or 6 times.
For comparison:
SEC:
Rank | School and Avg Attendance | Conf | P5/G5 |
2 | Alabama — 5.11M | SEC | P5 |
4 | Tennessee — 4.13M | SEC | P5 |
5 | Georgia — 3.50M | SEC | P5 |
7 | LSU — 3.22M | SEC | P5 |
8 | Texas — 3.06M | SEC | P5 |
11 | Florida — 2.57M | SEC | P5 |
18 | Texas A&M — 1.87M | SEC | P5 |
20 | Auburn — 1.863M | SEC | P5 |
21 | Arkansas — 1.80M | SEC | P5 |
22 | Mississippi — 1.753M | SEC | P5 |
23 | Oklahoma — 1.748M | SEC | P5 |
28 | Kentucky — 1.35M | SEC | P5 |
36 | Mississippi State — 1.10M | SEC | P5 |
39 | South Carolina — 990K | SEC | P5 |
50 | Missouri — 793K | SEC | P5 |
B1G:
Rank | School and Avg Attendance | Conf | P5/G5 |
1 | Ohio State — 5.80M | B1G | P5 |
3 | Michigan — 4.37M | B1G | P5 |
9 | Penn State — 3.05M | B1G | P5 |
14 | Southern Cal — 2.07M | B1G | P5 |
16 | Nebraska — 1.98M | B1G | P5 |
17 | Michigan State — 1.91M | B1G | P5 |
19 | Maryland — 1.864M | B1G | P5 |
25 | UCLA — 1.591M | B1G | P5 |
26 | Wisconsin — 1.587M | B1G | P5 |
27 | Iowa — 1.50M | B1G | P5 |
31 | Indiana — 1.19M | B1G | P5 |
32 | Illinois — 1.17M | B1G | P5 |
35 | Northwestern — 1.13M | B1G | P5 |
37 | Minnesota — 1.05M | B1G | P5 |
44 | Purdue -870K | B1G | P5 |
58 | Rutgers — 618K | B1G | P5 |
G5 teams better than Duke, compared to the low level ACC teams:
Rank | School and Avg Attendance | Conf | P5/G5 |
64 | Colorado State — 386K | | G5 |
65 | Tulane — 354K | | G5 |
66 | Boise State — 353K | | G5 |
69 | Utah State — 324K | | G5 |
72 | SMU — 312K | | G5 |
73 | Toledo — 306K | | G5 |
74 | East Carolina — 305K | | G5 |
75 | Appalachian State — 298K | | G5 |
77 | Marshall — 262K | | G5 |
80 | Fresno State — 220K | | G5 |
81 | Ohio — 214K | | G5 |
82 | Connecticut — 212K | | G5 |
83 | San Diego State — 198K | | G5 |
84 | Western Michigan — 174K | | G5 |
85 | Memphis — 165K | | G5 |
86 | Tulsa — 162K | | G5 |
87 | Wyoming — 154K | | G5 |
88 | Central Michigan — 130K | | G5 |
89 | Georgia Southern — 125K | | G5 |
90 | Nevada — 116.4K | | G5 |
If you look at the Four Million Club, it is even worse:
4 Million Club:
There were 39 teams that played in at least one game that cracked 4 million viewers: |
8 — Ohio State |
7 — Alabama, Michigan |
6 — Tennessee |
5 — Georgia |
4 — Florida |
3 — Auburn, Clemson, Kentucky, Penn State, TCU, Texas |
2 — Florida State, Iowa, LSU, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Southern Cal |
1 — Arkansas, Army, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Mississippi, Navy, NC State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Wisconsin |
All Conferences:
Rank | Game | Conferences |
1 | Michigan at Ohio State — 17.14M | B1G |
2 | Tennessee at Georgia — 13.06M | SEC |
3 | Alabama at Tennessee — 11.56M | SEC |
4 | Alabama at Texas — 10.60M | SEC/B12 |
5 | Notre Dame vs. Ohio State — 10.53M | B1G/Indy |
6 | Alabama at Mississippi — 8.71M | SEC |
7 | Ohio State at Penn State — 8.27M | B1G |
8 | Alabama at LSU — 7.58M | SEC |
9 | Florida State vs. LSU — 7.55M | SEC/ACC |
10 | Texas A&M at Alabama — 7.15M | SEC |
11 | Army vs. Navy — 6.94M | Indy |
12 | Florida at Florida State — 6.71M | SEC/ACC |
13 | Notre Dame at Southern Cal, 6.68M | PAC/Indy |
14 | Ohio State at Maryland — 6.60M | B1G |
15 | Penn State at Michigan — 6.45M | B1G |
16 | Auburn at Alabama — 6.27M | SEC |
17 | Oregon vs. Georgia — 6.20M | SEC/PAC |
18 | Alabama at Arkansas — 5.83M | SEC |
19 | Florida at Georgia — 5.62M | SEC |
20 | Michigan State at Michigan — 5.58M | B1G |
21 | Florida at Tennessee — 5.57M | SEC |
22 | Illinois at Michigan — 5.47M | B1G |
23 | TCU at Texas — 5.03M | B12 |
24 | NC State at Clemson — 4.98M | ACC |
25 | Tennessee at South Carolina — 4.87M | SEC |
26 | Clemson at Georgia Tech — 4.86M | ACC |
27 | Ohio State at Northwestern — 4.76M | B1G |
28 | Syracuse at Clemson — 4.75M | ACC |
29 | Wisconsin at Ohio State — 4.59M | B1G |
30 | Southern Cal at UCLA — 4.53M | PAC |
31 | Georgia at Kentucky — 4.48M | SEC |
32 | Tennessee at Pittsburgh — 4.46M | SEC/ACC |
33 | Texas at Oklahoma State — 4.46M | B12 |
34 | Ohio State at Michigan State — 4.44M | B1G |
35 | Nebraska vs. Northwestern — 4.42M | B1G |
36 | Maryland at Michigan — 4.38M | B1G |
37 | Iowa at Ohio State — 4.38M | B1G |
38 | TCU at Baylor — 4.35M | B12 |
39 | Iowa State at TCU — 4.34M | B12 |
40 | Kentucky at Florida — 4.33M | SEC |
41 | Auburn at Georgia — 4.24M | SEC |
42 | Michigan at Iowa — 4.20M | B1G |
43 | Penn State at Auburn — 4.05M | SEC/B1G |
44 | Kentucky at Tennessee — 4.04M | SEC |
45 | Michigan at Indiana — 4.01M | B1G |
SEC
Rank | Game | Conferences |
2 | Tennessee at Georgia — 13.06M | SEC |
3 | Alabama at Tennessee — 11.56M | SEC |
4 | Alabama at Texas — 10.60M | SEC/B12 |
6 | Alabama at Mississippi — 8.71M | SEC |
8 | Alabama at LSU — 7.58M | SEC |
9 | Florida State vs. LSU — 7.55M | SEC/ACC |
10 | Texas A&M at Alabama — 7.15M | SEC |
12 | Florida at Florida State — 6.71M | SEC/ACC |
16 | Auburn at Alabama — 6.27M | SEC |
17 | Oregon vs. Georgia — 6.20M | SEC/PAC |
18 | Alabama at Arkansas — 5.83M | SEC |
19 | Florida at Georgia — 5.62M | SEC |
21 | Florida at Tennessee — 5.57M | SEC |
25 | Tennessee at South Carolina — 4.87M | SEC |
31 | Georgia at Kentucky — 4.48M | SEC |
32 | Tennessee at Pittsburgh — 4.46M | SEC/ACC |
40 | Kentucky at Florida — 4.33M | SEC |
41 | Auburn at Georgia — 4.24M | SEC |
43 | Penn State at Auburn — 4.05M | SEC/B1G |
44 | Kentucky at Tennessee — 4.04M | SEC |
B1G
1 | Michigan at Ohio State — 17.14M | B1G |
5 | Notre Dame vs. Ohio State — 10.53M | B1G/Indy |
7 | Ohio State at Penn State — 8.27M | B1G |
14 | Ohio State at Maryland — 6.60M | B1G |
15 | Penn State at Michigan — 6.45M | B1G |
20 | Michigan State at Michigan — 5.58M | B1G |
22 | Illinois at Michigan — 5.47M | B1G |
27 | Ohio State at Northwestern — 4.76M | B1G |
29 | Wisconsin at Ohio State — 4.59M | B1G |
34 | Ohio State at Michigan State — 4.44M | B1G |
35 | Nebraska vs. Northwestern — 4.42M | B1G |
36 | Maryland at Michigan — 4.38M | B1G |
37 | Iowa at Ohio State — 4.38M | B1G |
42 | Michigan at Iowa — 4.20M | B1G |
45 | Michigan at Indiana — 4.01M | B1G |
ACC
Rank | Game | Conferences |
9 | Florida State vs. LSU — 7.55M | SEC/ACC |
12 | Florida at Florida State — 6.71M | SEC/ACC |
24 | NC State at Clemson — 4.98M | ACC |
26 | Clemson at Georgia Tech — 4.86M | ACC |
28 | Syracuse at Clemson — 4.75M | ACC |
32 | Tennessee at Pittsburgh — 4.46M | SEC/ACC |
B12
Rank | Game | Conferences |
4 | Alabama at Texas — 10.60M | SEC/B12 |
23 | TCU at Texas — 5.03M | B12 |
33 | Texas at Oklahoma State — 4.46M | B12 |
38 | TCU at Baylor — 4.35M | B12 |
39 | Iowa State at TCU — 4.34M | B12 |
PAC
Rank | Game | Conferences |
13 | Notre Dame at Southern Cal, 6.68M | PAC/Indy |
17 | Oregon vs. Georgia — 6.20M | SEC/PAC |
30 | Southern Cal at UCLA — 4.53M | PAC |