PAC News

[WhosYourDawggy]

I don’t think it’s a matter of if they are going to add PAC teams but a matter of how many and when. I believe this is the real reason the PAC doesn’t have a contract and there’s no real incentive for media partners to negotiate with GK until this is resolved.

I also think the Big Tens contract fiasco has changed their priorities. The first priority is settling everything that Warren left them with. This means the Big Ten would probably prefer to wait 2-3 years before adding UW, UO and possibly others. The problem is the longer the PAC goes without a deal, the more likely other members bail on the PAC for the Big 12. This could force the Big Ten to act quicker than they want to.

But I agree, if the networks cooperate, it makes sense to do it now and incorporate the west coast wing all at once.

I totally agree ... we have us a Mexican standoff. The B1G would like to wait, which means the Ore and UW and maybe others aren't going to sign the assurances needed by the TV people and other teams. I think Colo and Az may force everyone's hand at this point. Going to crazy soon, I think.

 

[duckboy33]

I totally agree ... we have us a Mexican standoff. The B1G would like to wait, which means the Ore and UW and maybe others aren't going to sign the assurances needed by the TV people and other teams. I think Colo and Az may force everyone's hand at this point. Going to crazy soon, I think.

I agree, I see this ending 1 of 2 ways.

1) Colorado jumps (I think they'll be the first) and Arizona, ASU, Utah, WSU and OSU will try to follow (Big 12 will most likely not take all of them). At that point, the Big Ten will either have to add some PAC schools or risk them going to the Big 12 and having their GOR locked up for longer than desired. My guess is the Big Ten would add UO/UW at that point (Possibly Cal/Stanford as well).

2) Colorado threatens to leave and UO/UW aren't that confident that the Big Ten would invite them under scenario 1. The PAC 12 signs a short (3-4 years) deal to keep the conference around a few more years.

I think it will probably end up being scenario #1 because I don't see the incentive for Colorado to go down the #2 path unless they really think nobody in the PAC 12 is ever going to end up in the Big Ten. And based on what's out there, I don't see how you could come to that conclusion.

 

[Volbound1700]

I don't ever see that happening. As long as the big money makers are willing to subsidize teams like you listed, they'll keep 'em.

I still think it would be best if there were football only conferences and the other sports returned to smaller and more manageable conferences.

Sure, I have posted many times that 6 Power leagues make a lot of sense. IMO, instead of the 6 poaching from each other, they should have poached up and coming G5 teams. None of that makes sense financially though.

I think some of the upper echelon G5 teams should be moved into Power 5 and then downgrade a lot of the others to Div I-aa or whatever it is called now. You shouldn't have teams go undefeated that can't play for title.

I am a little more generous or open to ideas on G5 teams that could be moved to Power 5 status.

 

[Volbound1700]

There is a difference between wanting to be in the club and already being in the club. Hell, I am not sure contractually they could kick them out if they wanted to. And they don't want them to. Those teams serve a purpose.

You think that now but who knows with the future. Taking SEC as the example, Miss State and Vandy don't bring a lot to the table from a football standpoint. A team sitting on the outside like Oklahoma State is more valuable. Even Louisville might be a better pickup.

 

[Volbound1700]

I agree, I see this ending 1 of 2 ways.

1) Colorado jumps (I think they'll be the first) and Arizona, ASU, Utah, WSU and OSU will try to follow (Big 12 will most likely not take all of them). At that point, the Big Ten will either have to add some PAC schools or risk them going to the Big 12 and having their GOR locked up for longer than desired. My guess is the Big Ten would add UO/UW at that point (Possibly Cal/Stanford as well).

2) Colorado threatens to leave and UO/UW aren't that confident that the Big Ten would invite them under scenario 1. The PAC 12 signs a short (3-4 years) deal to keep the conference around a few more years.

I think it will probably end up being scenario #1 because I don't see the incentive for Colorado to go down the #2 path unless they really think nobody in the PAC 12 is ever going to end up in the Big Ten. And based on what's out there, I don't see how you could come to that conclusion.

Oregon and Washington's best move would be to try to head to the Big12. That might be their best bet to get to their long-term goal of getting into the B1G. If Oregon and Washington announce they are heading to Big12, others would join them and the dominos would start falling opening the door to the B1G inviting them.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

You think that now but who knows with the future. Taking SEC as the example, Miss State and Vandy don't bring a lot to the table from a football standpoint. A team sitting on the outside like Oklahoma State is more valuable. Even Louisville might be a better pickup.

Again, being in the club is different from wanting to be in the club. Vandy and MSU helped build the SEC to where it is today. Some of that by being cannon fodder, sometimes being the cannon (VU in the early days, MSU was ranked no. 1 or 2 in the last decade). The only way they are eliminated is that you disband the SEC and move into an ACF/NCF situation in CFB. I don't see that happening in my lifetime.

 

[duckboy33]

Oregon and Washington's best move would be to try to head to the Big12. That might be their best bet to get to their long-term goal of getting into the B1G. If Oregon and Washington announce they are heading to Big12, others would join them and the dominos would start falling opening the door to the B1G inviting them.

I doubt Oregon and Washington would sign that GOR unless they got a firm "no" from the Big Ten. I believe that UO/UW believe they will be in the Big Ten before that Big 12 contract were to expire.

 

[Volbound1700]

I doubt Oregon and Washington would sign that GOR unless they got a firm "no" from the Big Ten. I believe that UO/UW believe they will be in the Big Ten before that Big 12 contract were to expire.

I think Big12 basically would agree to add Oregon and Washington with a no GOR out clause. That was an offer made per rumors (although it was several months ago).

 

[duckboy33]

I think Big12 basically would agree to add Oregon and Washington with a no GOR out clause. That was an offer made per rumors (although it was several months ago).

I have serious doubts that the Big 12 would make that kind of offer

 

[Volbound1700]

I have serious doubts that the Big 12 would make that kind of offer

It makes sense, they know if Oregon and Washington leave the Pac12, other Pac12 teams will jump ship to Big12. It is a chess move. Also even a year or two of Oregon and Washington would bring $$$.

I think it is the best move right now for Oregon. Negotiate a no buy-out exit for B1G offer. Big12 would do it even if they don't have a single game of either program because it ensures Colorado, the Arizonas, and Utah jump ship.

 

[duckboy33]

It makes sense, they know if Oregon and Washington leave the Pac12, other Pac12 teams will jump ship to Big12. It is a chess move. Also even a year or two of Oregon and Washington would bring $$$.

I think it is the best move right now for Oregon. Negotiate a no buy-out exit for B1G offer. Big12 would do it even if they don't have a single game of either program because it ensures Colorado, the Arizonas, and Utah jump ship.

Except it doesn't bring anyone in the Big 12 any extra revenue. They already have it in the contract what the networks would pay for any P5 additions. It doesn't matter if it's Oregon or Washington State. It only brings more money if you feel like they will add value to the next media contract. It's also bad for the Big 12 brand if teams are continuing to leave the conference.

And from Oregon's perspective, I think it's a pretty bad move unless you get a firm "no and not ever" from the Big Ten. This is the opposite of forcing the Big Ten's hand. This allows Oregon to remain an option forever. The only leverage Oregon could potentially have is if the Big Ten wants to add them in the next few years and they are considering signing the Big 12's GOR.

 

[Volbound1700]

Except it doesn't bring anyone in the Big 12 any extra revenue. They already have it in the contract what the networks would pay for any P5 additions. It doesn't matter if it's Oregon or Washington State. It only brings more money if you feel like they will add value to the next media contract. It's also bad for the Big 12 brand if teams are continuing to leave the conference.

And from Oregon's perspective, I think it's a pretty bad move unless you get a firm "no and not ever" from the Big Ten. This is the opposite of forcing the Big Ten's hand. This allows Oregon to remain an option forever. The only leverage Oregon could potentially have is if the Big Ten wants to add them in the next few years and they are considering signing the Big 12's GOR.

Currently Big12 contract is more valuable than Pac12. So yes, it would be a better fit. It also solves B1G's issue with not being the bad guy and breaking up Pac12. Pac12 is a dead man walking. At least the Big12 has a future.


Off topic from my discussion with duckboy33 but posting:

 

[Volbound1700]

It seems like @duckboy33 is still living in denial. Big12 has a TV deal, one that is currently more profitable than the current Pac12 makeup and frankly, I feel like the Big12 will be more competitive in Post Season play than the Pac12 moving forward.

 

[duckboy33]

It seems like @duckboy33 is still living in denial. Big12 has a TV deal, one that is currently more profitable than the current Pac12 makeup and frankly, I feel like the Big12 will be more competitive in Post Season play than the Pac12 moving forward.

I think you need to go back and try reading my post again

 

[Volbound1700]

I think you need to go back and try reading my post again

I may have misread but Oregon and Washington are still valuable enough IP that the Big12 would probably cave a little to bring them in. They are more marketable than anyone in the current Big12 even if the Big12 is seen as the more stable and profitable league.

 

[duckboy33]

I may have misread but Oregon and Washington are still valuable enough IP that the Big12 would probably cave a little to bring them in. They are more marketable than anyone in the current Big12 even if the Big12 is seen as the more stable and profitable league.

I think that’s true but the Big 12 schools will only see that value materialize if UO/UW make it to the next media contract. Unless you think that the media partner will pay more than the agreed upon amount for UO/UW without a GOR (I think that’s unlikely)

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think Big12 basically would agree to add Oregon and Washington with a no GOR out clause. That was an offer made per rumors (although it was several months ago).

I don't think the conference would do that, and I am confident the networks aren't going to allow that.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Except it doesn't bring anyone in the Big 12 any extra revenue. They already have it in the contract what the networks would pay for any P5 additions. It doesn't matter if it's Oregon or Washington State. It only brings more money if you feel like they will add value to the next media contract. It's also bad for the Big 12 brand if teams are continuing to leave the conference.

And from Oregon's perspective, I think it's a pretty bad move unless you get a firm "no and not ever" from the Big Ten. This is the opposite of forcing the Big Ten's hand. This allows Oregon to remain an option forever. The only leverage Oregon could potentially have is if the Big Ten wants to add them in the next few years and they are considering signing the Big 12's GOR.

I seriously doubt the agreement is that bad. There have to be some conditions as to who they bring in for the networks to cough up per capita amounts.

 

[Deep Creek]

I think Big12 basically would agree to add Oregon and Washington with a no GOR out clause. That was an offer made per rumors (although it was several months ago).

Why would the Big 12 agree to that?

 

[Volbound1700]

Why would the Big 12 agree to that?

I am trying to find it but it was literally one of the commonly published rumors around the first month or so after UCLA/USC left. Big12 apparently offered Oregon and Washington and one of the parts of the offer was that they would have a no exit fee clause if offered membership in the B1G.

The logic was that they may get 1-2 years with both either way and it forces the hands of Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah.

Ultimately though, I think the Big12 just wants the Pac12 dead because that is one less league to compete against.

Ugh... then again maybe this is what I saw . If so, my apologies. However, I thought there was more noise about it back then with explanations as to why they did it (it was really more a move to kill Pac12 than actually expecting to get Oregon and Washington long-term).