ESPN's Top 10 teams of the 2020s...so far

[iowajerms]

Connelly ranks the best college football teams of every decade

Bill Connelly uses SP+ to examine which teams have dominated over the years and what that tells us about the evolution of the sport's power programs.

www.espn.com

******* I just pasted 2020, if you want me to include another decade, let me know.**********

While the version of SP+ presented weekly during a given season is based on a large number of predictive factors, I have come up with a version based solely on points scored and allowed that, at the lower levels of the sport, can serve to make solid projections. I applied those same methods to the games going back to 1883, when football's scoring rules became mostly what they are now. (You can find all ratings here.)

Starting with the 1920s, I looked at which teams most thoroughly dominated the sport from decade to decade, using SP+ percentile averages for each team and each decade. How much do these lists change over the decades? What can these averages tell us about how things have evolved over the past 100 years and how much things are evolving now?

Let's dive in.


2020s
Obviously we're only three years into the current decade, so we'll see how things take shape from here. But just for posterity, here's where things stand for now.


1. Alabama (98.9)
2. Ohio State (98.2)
3. Georgia (97.8)
4. Michigan (91.5)
5. Clemson (91.2)
6. Oklahoma (89.4)
7. Notre Dame (88.4)
8. Iowa (88.1)
9. Utah (87.9)
10. Cincinnati (86.9)

Five best teams: 2020 Alabama (99.7), 2022 Georgia (99.4), 2021 Georgia (99.3), 2022 Michigan (98.9), 2022 Alabama (98.9)

Five best offenses: 2020 Alabama (99.9), 2020 Ohio State (99.2), 2021 Ohio State (98.8), 2021 Alabama (98.7), 2020 Florida (98.7)

Five best defenses: 2021 Georgia (99.0), 2022 Iowa (98.9), 2022 Georgia (98.5), 2020 Iowa (98.4), 2022 Illinois (98.4)

Alabama's 2020 perfection (and Georgia's 2020 flaws) give the Tide a narrow overall advantage despite Georgia's back-to-back titles. We'll see if that remains the case moving forward.

 

[Across The Field]

Connelly ranks the best college football teams of every decade

Bill Connelly uses SP+ to examine which teams have dominated over the years and what that tells us about the evolution of the sport's power programs.

www.espn.com

******* I just pasted 2020, if you want me to include another decade, let me know.**********

While the version of SP+ presented weekly during a given season is based on a large number of predictive factors, I have come up with a version based solely on points scored and allowed that, at the lower levels of the sport, can serve to make solid projections. I applied those same methods to the games going back to 1883, when football's scoring rules became mostly what they are now. (You can find all ratings here.)

Starting with the 1920s, I looked at which teams most thoroughly dominated the sport from decade to decade, using SP+ percentile averages for each team and each decade. How much do these lists change over the decades? What can these averages tell us about how things have evolved over the past 100 years and how much things are evolving now?

Let's dive in.


2020s
Obviously we're only three years into the current decade, so we'll see how things take shape from here. But just for posterity, here's where things stand for now.


1. Alabama (98.9)
2. Ohio State (98.2)
3. Georgia (97.8)
4. Michigan (91.5)
5. Clemson (91.2)
6. Oklahoma (89.4)
7. Notre Dame (88.4)
8. Iowa (88.1)
9. Utah (87.9)
10. Cincinnati (86.9)

Five best teams: 2020 Alabama (99.7), 2022 Georgia (99.4), 2021 Georgia (99.3), 2022 Michigan (98.9), 2022 Alabama (98.9)

Five best offenses: 2020 Alabama (99.9), 2020 Ohio State (99.2), 2021 Ohio State (98.8), 2021 Alabama (98.7), 2020 Florida (98.7)

Five best defenses: 2021 Georgia (99.0), 2022 Iowa (98.9), 2022 Georgia (98.5), 2020 Iowa (98.4), 2022 Illinois (98.4)

Alabama's 2020 perfection (and Georgia's 2020 flaws) give the Tide a narrow overall advantage despite Georgia's back-to-back titles. We'll see if that remains the case moving forward.

LOL what? Barely top 10 in YPG, 13th in PPG, leading rusher had 4.7 ypc and 4 TD with 503 yards and didn't have a 1,000 yard receiver. They also played 12 games so don't give me any Covid BS argument.

 

[iowajerms]

Iowa is well deserving to be Top 10.

Look at these finishes

2020 - 6-2 AP #16
2021 - 10-4 #23
2022 - 8-5

Top 10 resume right there.

 

[Across The Field]

Iowa is well deserving to be Top 10.

Look at these finishes

2020 - 6-2 AP #16
2021 - 10-4 #23
2022 - 8-5

Top 10 resume right there.

If you guys could put together even an above-average offense, your defenses would look even better than they already do.

 

[iowajerms]

If you guys could put together even an above-average offense, your defenses would look even better than they already do.

I actually think opposite. Being one of the top scoring defenses with consistent horrible field position and hardly any time to rest is quite impressive, but will never be a CFP team.

Improved offense would give Iowa that push.

 

[Across The Field]

I actually think opposite. Being one of the top scoring defenses with consistent horrible field position and hardly any time to rest is quite impressive, but will never be a CFP team.

Improved offense would give Iowa that push.

I think we said the same thing.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

Decades start in years that end with one, and UGA is the only team to win a championship this decade. They’re number 1. Any metric that says otherwise is useless and whoever came up with it should to the right thing and commit Seppuku

 

[ericd7633]

LOL what? Barely top 10 in YPG, 13th in PPG, leading rusher had 4.7 ypc and 4 TD with 503 yards and didn't have a 1,000 yard receiver. They also played 12 games so don't give me any Covid BS argument.

They were an elite offense that year(avg 41.5 ppg during the regular season). All against SEC teams. I think 5th is probably a little too high for the 3 seasons, but I think they're top 10 for sure over those 3 seasons. I'd have 2022 OSU, USC and Tennessee ahead of them.

 

[navamind]

LOL what? Barely top 10 in YPG, 13th in PPG, leading rusher had 4.7 ypc and 4 TD with 503 yards and didn't have a 1,000 yard receiver. They also played 12 games so don't give me any Covid BS argument.

So? Is it any different if a team has five 800 yard receivers versus four 1,000 yard receivers? Trask had 4,283 yards on 9.8 Y/A. And Toney was a whopping 16 yards short of 1,000.

I don't agree with them in the top 5, but I don't that's a good argument why.

 

[TaikoTiger]

Five best offenses: 2020 Alabama (99.9), 2020 Ohio State (99.2), 2021 Ohio State (98.8), 2021 Alabama (98.7), 2020 Florida (98.7)

Defense was optional in 2020
#COVID

 

[Across The Field]

They were an elite offense that year(avg 41.5 ppg during the regular season). All against SEC teams. I think 5th is probably a little too high for the 3 seasons, but I think they're top 10 for sure over those 3 seasons. I'd have 2022 OSU, USC and Tennessee ahead of them.

I wouldn't argue that they weren't top 10 necessarily, but I 100% agree on the three offenses you have ahead of them.

So? Is it any different if a team has five 800 yard receivers versus four 1,000 yard receivers? Trask had 4,283 yards on 9.8 Y/A. And Toney was a whopping 16 yards short of 1,000.

I don't agree with them in the top 5, but I don't that's a good argument why.

Florida had 1 receiver with 800+ yards though. Trask was fantastic that year, but he was the only real standout. I'm not saying they were bad by any means, but top 5? Nah.

 

[TaikoTiger]

LOL what? Barely top 10 in YPG, 13th in PPG, leading rusher had 4.7 ypc and 4 TD with 503 yards and didn't have a 1,000 yard receiver. They also played 12 games so don't give me any Covid BS argument.

That's not how SP+ works. The metric is mostly measured by per drive, not per game. But the real problem is 2020 CPU models should be just thrown out the window. Fla and everyone else offensive ratings are over inflated because defenses were all-time bad but the CPUs just look at 2020 just like any other year

 

[Knight&Day]

Covid year doesn’t count. No serious rating/ranking thingy would include the covid year.

If it happened in 2020, then it has, at minimum, an *- next to it.

 

[ericd7633]

I wouldn't argue that they weren't top 10 necessarily, but I 100% agree on the three offenses you have ahead of them.

Florida had 1 receiver with 800+ yards though. Trask was fantastic that year, but he was the only real standout. I'm not saying they were bad by any means, but top 5? Nah.

They also had Pitts who was a stud, but missed 4 games so his overall numbers don't look as impressive.

 

[TaikoTiger]

ESPN should go ahead and free Bill Connelly and SP+

 

[navamind]

I wouldn't argue that they weren't top 10 necessarily, but I 100% agree on the three offenses you have ahead of them.

Florida had 1 receiver with 800+ yards though. Trask was fantastic that year, but he was the only real standout. I'm not saying they were bad by any means, but top 5? Nah.

770 yards from a tight end is pretty impressive

 

[Across The Field]

770 yards from a tight end is pretty impressive

I mean, Pitts is a specimen and Trask threw the ball 40 times a game with few other options. Nothing at all against Pitts, he's arguably the most talented TE this century, but he should've been doing that.

 

[outofyourmind]

So
26-11 gets you #6 on this list.

Who knew??

 

[navamind]

So
26-11 gets you #6 on this list.

Who knew??

I mean, how many better records are there among P5 teams over that span? There aren't many teams that were really great all three years.

Even in OU's 6-7 season, they had five losses by a TD or less