Week 8 Playoff Projections

Deep Creek said:
I too think K-State has looked better since that clunker they had in Provo.

I just looked and all four (BYU, Colorado, ISU and K-State) all have manageable schedules remaining...at least as things have shaken out so far. Looks like the "meat of the schedule" has already played out regarding these four. That said, all of them could also lose to some of their remaining opponents.

I was dumb enough to think the Big 12 was so balanced that the winner might have three losses. :facepalm: Ain't looking that way at all right now.
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Hey man, I thought it too. Both ISU and KSU still have to go to Utah. They could (especially byu) lose that. ISU closing with KState too is tough.
Deep Creek said:
Even if BYU finishes well, their fate could well rest in the hands of SMU. If SMU wins the ACC or even makes the ACC CCG, that might elevate BYU's resume considerably. Things like this are what I like about the new 12 team playoff. Lots of factors come into play outside of a team's conference.
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My question would be are they really going to let a 1 loss B12 team in over a 2 loss SEC team when the SEC teams losses are to other playoff teams? Not sure I see that.
 
fordman84 said:
Imagine how many kids would have decided to redshirt themselves if we still lived in a 4 team world where a loss means you are nearly certainly out of the playoffs. 12 teams has reduced the number of kids pulling that. By the time their team is eliminated most will have lost the chance to get a redshirt.
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Hadn't thought about that. Another good factor influencing the new CFP format.

I wonder if those "but the regular season will be meaningless" people still believes so. This format puts so many more teams into the CFP discussion much deeper into the season.

I did see an article that may have one unintended consequence. It was talking about one of the better SEC/B1G teams finishing 3rd in the conference but still ranked in the 5-8. They avoid a slugfest in the CCG but gain a bye week earlier and still have a home game to begin the playoff. They forfeit the first round bye week they would have gotten by winning the conference. But they still may end up being in a better position than the CCG loser.
 
I am just curious about Notre Dame. Not a Notre Dame fan at all, but if they end with just one loss, what happens? Even if they beat Southern Cal, so what... They suck. That loss to NIU looks worse now that NIU has 3 losses.
 
ralphiewvu said:
Hey man, I thought it too. Both ISU and KSU still have to go to Utah. They could (especially byu) lose that. ISU closing with KState too is tough.

My question would be are they really going to let a 1 loss B12 team in over a 2 loss SEC team when the SEC teams losses are to other playoff teams? Not sure I see that.
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Were you able to stay up and watch the TCU/Utah game? I did. Utah looked really bad again. They were supposed to be the new Big 12 bully and TCU wasn't "out physicaled" at all. TCU isn't that good. They lost to Houston at home.

No way a 1 loss B12 team gets in over a 2 loss SEC team. I can't see any scenario where that happens. I really don't even see a path for a B12 runner up to get into the CFP. Big 12 teams' SOS isn't going to be too swift. Their best OOC win may end up being BYU's win over SMU. ISU's win over Iowa ain't looking as good as it was. No one else did shit in OOC.

Also, if chaos reigns in the B12, I could see Boise or undefeated Army/Navy getting the 4th conference champ first round bye.
 
Deep Creek said:
Were you able to stay up and watch the TCU/Utah game? I did. Utah looked really bad again. They were supposed to be the new Big 12 bully and TCU wasn't "out physicaled" at all. TCU isn't that good. They lost to Houston at home.

No way a 1 loss B12 team gets in over a 2 loss SEC team. I can't see any scenario where that happens. I really don't even see a path for a B12 runner up to get into the CFP. Big 12 teams' SOS isn't going to be too swift. Their best OOC win may end up being BYU's win over SMU. ISU's win over Iowa ain't looking as good as it was. No one else did shit in OOC.

Also, if chaos reigns in the B12, I could see Boise or undefeated Army/Navy getting the 4th conference champ first round bye.
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I admittedly stayed up for the half. But that was mainly to see if by chance Mac, Kendrick or Milan Pharm grew some nuts and gave Wren the ok (and the $$$$) to fire Neal late night. I know Utah is struggling right now, but I’m not counting out Whittingham or the Utes against their biggest rival, at home.

I agree with everything else you stated. But my chaos comment was for other conferences, not the B12. Hell the ACC could get two in this year.
 
Collegefbfan said:
I am just curious about Notre Dame. Not a Notre Dame fan at all, but if they end with just one loss, what happens? Even if they beat Southern Cal, so what... They suck. That loss to NIU looks worse now that NIU has 3 losses.
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Crazy as this sounds, I think Notre Dame's fate may well rest with how A&M, Army and Navy finish. Maybe Louisville as well but that doesn't look as good as it did. If those four finish with good resumes that may give Notre Dame a pretty decent SOS.
Besides ND and Army, Navy has Rice, USF, Tulane and ECU remaining. Army has Air Force, North Texas, and UTSA left along with ND and Navy.

WTH is the AAC going to do if Army and Navy are tied going into CCG week? Army's already played 6 conference games. All but two have only played 3.
 
Deep Creek said:
Hadn't thought about that. Another good factor influencing the new CFP format.

I wonder if those "but the regular season will be meaningless" people still believes so. This format puts so many more teams into the CFP discussion much deeper into the season.

I did see an article that may have one unintended consequence. It was talking about one of the better SEC/B1G teams finishing 3rd in the conference but still ranked in the 5-8. They avoid a slugfest in the CCG but gain a bye week earlier and still have a home game to begin the playoff. They forfeit the first round bye week they would have gotten by winning the conference. But they still may end up being in a better position than the CCG loser.
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I have heard this very thing mentioned on all the podcasts I listen to. Many of them say we don't need conference championship games in an expanded playoff. I know the money is there to keep these. But I see exactly what they and you are saying.
 
Man, still no South Carolina :tsk:
 
The best path for a 2 bid Big 12 is for Iowa State/Kansas State to beat a 12-0 BYU in the Big12CG. BYU's played the harder schedule and the remaining schedule is practically equal from a metric standpoint. Also, BYU has the road win at SMU. I think if BYU makes it to 12-0 they'll get in no matter what.
 
Collegefbfan said:
I am just curious about Notre Dame. Not a Notre Dame fan at all, but if they end with just one loss, what happens? Even if they beat Southern Cal, so what... They suck. That loss to NIU looks worse now that NIU has 3 losses.
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Army/Navy are ND's best friends right now. An 11-1 ND will get in probably in the 7-9 range most likely.
 
ericd7633 said:
The best path for a 2 bid Big 12 is for Iowa State/Kansas State to beat a 12-0 BYU in the Big12CG. BYU's played the harder schedule and the remaining schedule is practically equal from a metric standpoint. Also, BYU has the road win at SMU. I think if BYU makes it to 12-0 they'll get in no matter what.
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Other than SMU and K-State, their schedule doesn't look good compared to the SEC/B1G runner ups.

Right now BYU's only ranked wins are SMU and K-State. If they lose the CCG game to either ISU or K-State, you think they'd still get in at 12-1?
 
Deep Creek said:
Other than SMU and K-State, their schedule doesn't look good compared to the SEC/B1G runner ups.

Right now BYU's only ranked wins are SMU and K-State. If they lose the CCG game to either ISU or K-State, you think they'd still get in at 12-1?
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Yes, I do. Having two ranked wins will actually be pretty good compared to other teams in the at large pool. If OSU beats PSU and IU, PSU might have 1 with Illinois. IU will have zero. In the SEC it's looking like Texas and Tennessee will not have more than 1. The loser of the ACCCG will most likely only have 1 or at most 2. LSU has the potential to have more, but they could also be a 3 loss team too, so they are wait and see.
 
ericd7633 said:
Yes, I do. Having two ranked wins will actually be pretty good compared to other teams in the at large pool. If OSU beats PSU and IU, PSU might have 1 with Illinois. IU will have zero. In the SEC it's looking like Texas and Tennessee will not have more than 1. The loser of the ACCCG will most likely only have 1 or at most 2. LSU has the potential to have more, but they could also be a 3 loss team too, so they are wait and see.
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Wow! I can see why you think so with that kind of data. Looks like wins against ranked opponents are like nuggets of gold. Seems like teams are more and more dependent on how well their scheduled opponents' seasons go.

I knew there were several ranked teams that didn't have any real good wins on their resumes to date. Didn't know they were to that extreme. Indiana's isn't very good at all. And they only have Ohio State left to help it since it doesn't look like beating Michigan isn't going help.
 
Deep Creek said:
WTH is the AAC going to do if Army and Navy are tied going into CCG week? Army's already played 6 conference games. All but two have only played 3.
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I don't understand the question. They'll go through normal procedures to figure out who goes to the ccg.
 
michaeljordan_fan said:
I don't understand the question. They'll go through normal procedures to figure out who goes to the ccg.
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If I’m reading this correctly, the AAC CCG is scheduled 12/7 the week prior to the Army/ Navy game 12/14. The Army/Navy game could determine who the participants in the CCG should be.

Maybe I’m reading it wrong.
 
Deep Creek said:
If I’m reading this correctly, the AAC CCG is scheduled 12/7 the week prior to the Army/ Navy game 12/14. The Army/Navy game could determine who the participants in the CCG should be.

Maybe I’m reading it wrong.
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Not a conference game
 
i'll take that home game #HookEm
 
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