So far we haven't really had any huge outliers win a conference tournament yet. Wofford was a #6 seed, but their NET was only about 20 spots below the #1 seed. 1-6 in the So Con were pretty bunched up.
That could change tonight though. Delaware, St Francis and Youngstown State will all almost assuredly be placed in Dayton if they were to win (maybe not Youngstown State depending on other outcomes). Delaware and St Francis being two of the worst teams to ever make it, potentially. As a by product that would really weaken the potential 15 seeds.
The PL and SWAC champs are in Dayton no matter what, if Delaware and St Francis win, that's pretty much a wrap on Dayton with those 4. Unless someone besides Norfolk State wins the MEAC.
CCSU, UNCW and Robert Morris winning would be huge for the competitiveness of the lower part of the tournament.