Nice job using the 2020 covid season to try and make a point that doesn't exist. The NY6 bowls this year pulled a fraction of what they have in year's past. Ratings were down across the board. All of the none playoffs games drew the equivalent of 2019's Snoozefest Orange Bowl between Florida and Virginia.
IF you think the NY6 bowls are going to continue at the less than 7 million level, might as well get ready of them all together and go to the playoff now.
Everything in your lol, fanbuzz blog is about revenue, half the bowl teams lost money after expenses. The shit bowls work for ESPN because even the shitty bowls bring more viewers than the 16th showing of Sportscenter. It's the same reason Networks are clogged with reality shows...cheap.
Your second source makes the ballsy assumption that the expanded playoffs will have no impact on the NY6 bowls viewership, which is clearly ridiculous. It's $420 million valuation is based on an increase viewership of 60 million people, what happens to the 28 million that watched the NY6 in the covid year...and why are the revenues going up for what is essentially watered down games...Like I said Alabama vs Cincy is not going to outdraw Alabama vs Notre Dame.
Your second source also clearly states ESPN's position...we'll see what happens after 2026.
Like I said, Unlike the SEC deal, ESPN already has the rights through 2026, why are they going to pay more to show the same games?
I didn't purposefully cherry pick COVID numbers, and it doesn't change things. I looked at the past 4 years, and my point still stands and your assumptions are not supported by the numbers.
- Discounting this year, the non-semi NY6 bowl games regularly pull anywhere from 41-64% of the viewership of the semis. The non-CFP NY6 averaged 9, 11, 9, 11 million in the past 4 years. More than the 7 you wrote, but still plenty of room for growth. The numbers and averages are below.
- In the context of our discussion, it doesn't matter that the teams lose money going to the games, it's an event to reward the players and their parents. And while some indirectly lose money on a bowl game, the pool is huge and they make a ton of money. You also have to factor in community impact which is huge. The year NOLA hosted the Sugar Bowl and the NC game, they estimated a half a billion dollars in community impact. That matters, and it's why the bowls are so powerful and continue to grow (non-Covid years, of course). You may hate them, the average CFB fan seems to like them plenty. And TV and the bowls make a crap load of money and will want to make more.
- We obviously don't know what will happen if they add more CFP games, but the assumption has to be that viewership will go up. Fanbases who don't care will care. There will be some great games, and some blowouts. If you go 12, where you have 5 playing 12, instead of 1 playing 16, then you will have more competitive games. As for Alabama v. Cincy not drawing Alabama v. ND, you would get 2 games not one, and they would combined clearly bring in more viewers. Don't understand that you think less football is more profitable than more football. I've listed a 12 teams CFP for 2019-2020 below ... who wouldn't want to watch a bunch of those games?
- Why would they pay more? To make more money, of course. As the numbers an reasonable assumptions show, they are likely to increase viewership of the other 4 NY6 bowls by 33-50%. Go to 12, and you add 4 more great games that will pull at least 10 million each. Of course they will pay for that.
Here is a 2019-2020 12 game CFP:
(12) Utah @ (5) UGA
(11) Auburn @ (6) Oregon
(10) PSU @ (7) Baylor
(9) UF @ (8) Wisconsin
Reseed for upsets and Bowl matchups - I just went with seeds.
(not sure of the bowl matchup reseed - I did it for a PAC v. B1G Rose Bowl, but you do for upsets for sure like the NFL does)
Sugar - (1) LSU v. (8) Wisconsin
Rose - (2) tOSU v. (7) Oregon
Cotton - (4) OU v. (5) UGA
Orange - (3) Clemson v. (6) Baylor
Here are the NY6 numbers:
2020-21 (Covid)
Rose - 18.9
Sugar - 19.1 - avg 19
Peach - 8.7
Fiesta - 6.7
Cotton - 5.8m
Orange - 7.6m - avg 7.2, 37% of the Semis
2019-20
Peach - 17.2m
Fiesta - 20.4m - avg 18.8
Sugar - 10m
Rose - 16m
Cotton - 6.2m
Orange - 6m - avg 9.55, 50% of the semis
2018-19
Orange - 19.1m
Cotton - 16.9m - avg 18m
Sugar - 13.3
Rose - 16.7
Peach - 8.4
Fiesta - 8.5 - avg. 11.7, 65% of semis
2017-18
Sugar - 21.5m
Rose - 26.9m - avg 24.2
Fiesta - 10.2m
Peach - 8.4m
Cotton - 9.5m
Orange - 11.7m - avg 9.95, 41% of semis
2016-17
Peach - 19.3m
Fiesta - 19.4m - avg 19.35
Orange - 14
Sugar - 9m
Rose - 16m
Cotton - 5.5 - avg 11.1, 57% of semis