HOF Watermark Qualifiers that need to go away

How is Scherzer close, but Greinke in?? Scherzer is a shoe in... Greinke is on the border... Greinke is a Advanced stats are better than his standard Stats guy... Kind of like Mussina...
Yeah, I kinda did a quick glance at a couple stats, didn't look at them individually. Both are in, Scherzer's got a much better case than Greinke. Greinke has a better sustained peak, but that stretch from '16-'18 by Scherzer is probably good enough, along with the rest of his body of work, to get him in.
 
Cabrera and Trout are in, Pujols (PED-dependent) could be. Betts, Arenado, and Machado are headed in the right direction. Greinke, Kershaw, and Verlander are in as pitchers, Scherzer is close. DeGrom is headed there, don't know if Cole will get there.

So that's 5 guys going for sure, 2 case-dependent, and another 5 who are making very big statements for where they are in their careers. Too hard to project the young bucks.
I'd say there are a number of other guys possible who just have plenty of work to do but have done a lot already like Harper and Machado off the top of my head.
 
Arenado is the most interesting case out there right now.... he gets the Colorado bias, so if he doesn't have a couple very good seasons outside of Colorado, he wont make it... even if his numbers deserve it...
 
Dave Schoenfield wrote something about it as I recall (and it may not have been his own research) but I'd have to search for it. I will tell you this, there is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that there are more than 14 HoFers playing in MLB right now.

Just a quick look on google..As of 2016, just over 18,000 players have played MLB ball. 235 of them are in the HOF.
 
I'd say there are a number of other guys possible who just have plenty of work to do but have done a lot already like Harper and Machado off the top of my head.
Machado is on my list. Harper has a lot of work to do to get back into the mix, as I think he's tailed off a bit. He's still got his actual physical peak to come, so he can certainly pick it up, but he's further back on the list, IMO.
 
Harper: 27 years old, 232 homeruns. 30 homers a year through age 36 and he is at 500.
If Harper stays anywhere near this pace for another nine years, he'll be a slam dunk HOFer.

He's got an OPS+ of 145 over the last six seasons. His current career OPS would rank 36th among HOFers.
 
If Haper hits 30 HRs a year for another 9 years, yeah, he qualifies.
Clearly. His inclusion in the OP is silly.

People love to hate Harper.
 
Just a quick look on google..As of 2016, just over 18,000 players have played MLB ball. 235 of them are in the HOF.

It's possible I'm being too clever but I think that any player that was active in any season between 2012 and 2016 needs to be excluded from that 18,000 denominator. Not sure how many players that is. Actually now that I think of it every player that began his career after 2001 should be excluded from the denominator since it is impossible for a player beginning his career in 2002 or later to have made the Hall of Fame by 2016 no matter how good he was/is.

When I have more time I'll find something that looks at historical counts of active HoFers and hope I can find it and it's not paywalled (for instance the Schoenfield piece I mentioned before is ESPN).
 
This version is a few years old, I'm assuming that's why it's not paywalled. I don't know if he does it every year or just every now and then. And yeah, 14 seems way low as an estimate.


"As a point of comparison, let's go back to 1988. We already have 34 Hall of Famers who played that year. There were players at the end of the line, such as Steve Carlton, Don Sutton and Mike Schmidt; there were in-their-prime stars, such as Rickey Henderson, Cal Ripken and Tony Gwynn; there were rookies, including John Smoltz, Randy Johnson and Craig Biggio. Smoltz went 2-7 with a 5.48 ERA; you certainly wouldn't have pegged him as a future Hall of Famer then.

So 34 Hall of Famers from 26 teams, a little more than one per team on average. Except remember that Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro all were active that year and would be Hall of Famers if not for PEDs. Curt Schilling started four games as a rookie that year and will eventually get in. Edgar Martinez got into a few games that year and he should get elected next year. That's 40 likely Hall of Famers if you include the PED guys, and that doesn't include other future possibilities such as Gary Sheffield, Lou Whitaker, Kevin Brown, Keith Hernandez, Dwight Evans and David Cone, who have numbers worthy of consideration.

But let's go with a list of 40 active Hall of Famers. That may seem like a lot, but that's a 1.33 ratio of Hall of Famers per team, lower than the historical rate."
 
Arenado is the most interesting case out there right now.... he gets the Colorado bias, so if he doesn't have a couple very good seasons outside of Colorado, he wont make it... even if his numbers deserve it...
People tend to forget that these Rocky players have to play 81 games a year on the road.
Also, there is one stat that the thin Colorado air cannot manipulate; infield defense. Arenado might be the best at third base since Brooks Robinson was in his prime.
 
People tend to forget that these Rocky players have to play 81 games a year on the road.
Also, there is one stat that the thin Colorado air cannot manipulate; infield defense. Arenado might be the best at third base since Brooks Robinson was in his prime.

Chapman is sorta good over there too.
 
Clearly. His inclusion in the OP is silly.

People love to hate Harper.
I like Harper as much as any player. But the reality is that he tends to have one great season sandwiched around 2 or 3 under-achieving seasons. And, historically by age, he should be in his prime right now. But, instead, it's looking more and more like 2015 is going to be his career year. And. after nine seasons in MLB, he's only placed in the top TWENTY fIVE in the MVP voting twice.

Seven of nine years can not even get into the top 25 in the MVP vote? Meh.....
 
People tend to forget that these Rocky players have to play 81 games a year on the road.
Also, there is one stat that the thin Colorado air cannot manipulate; infield defense. Arenado might be the best at third base since Brooks Robinson was in his prime.
I think Arenado has one of the most drastic home away splits of star Rockies players too though.
 
I think Arenado has one of the most drastic home away splits of star Rockies players too though.
Very true. But as HOF third basemen go, both Santo's and Boggs' splits were pretty lopsided too. Arenado has a chance to get down into Boggs and Santo territory with 2-3 good years in St Louis.
 
I like Harper as much as any player. But the reality is that he tends to have one great season sandwiched around 2 or 3 under-achieving seasons. And, historically by age, he should be in his prime right now. But, instead, it's looking more and more like 2015 is going to be his career year. And. after nine seasons in MLB, he's only placed in the top TWENTY fIVE in the MVP voting twice.

Seven of nine years can not even get into the top 25 in the MVP vote? Meh.....
You amuse me.
 
But I don’t think 500 homers should be an automatic qualifier.

Take Chris Carter, if a team would have played him everyday, he’d get 500 homers, but he’d still be a dude that doesn’t get on base much and and a low OPS for a power hitter.
All he did was catch touchdowns.

And pay a bag man to carry around his cocaine.

Both of which are smart.
 
Just a quick look on google..As of 2016, just over 18,000 players have played MLB ball. 235 of them are in the HOF.
This upcoming season will bring us the 150somethingth class of rookies.

Nearly 10% of HOF classes have included ZERO players. But it’s too inclusive...
 
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