ericd7633 Bubble Tracker

ericd7633

ericd7633

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I thought this would be a fun exercise to keep track of with about 2 1/2 weeks left in the regular season/conference tournaments. I'll be keeping track of LOCKS, WORK TO DO, & WIN Conference Tournament(WINCT) to secure a bid.

Of note, to be considered a LOCK, it means you have the ability to lose out the regular season, and your first conference tournament game, and still get an at-large. Some of these teams MIGHT be able to do that, but I'm not 100% sure they'd get in.

Here's the list:

Big 12:
LOCKS: Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas, Iowa State
WORK TO DO: TCU, Oklahoma, Kansas State
WINCT: WVU

B1G:
LOCKS: Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State
WORK TO DO: Rutgers, Michigan, Indiana
WINCT: PSU, NW, MD, Minn, Neb

SEC:
LOCKS: Auburn, UK, Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, LSU
WORK TO DO: South Carolina, UF, Miss St, Texas A&M
WINCT: Vandy, Ole Miss, Missouri, UGA

Big East:
LOCKS: Providence, Villanova, UConn, Creighton
WORK TO DO: Marquette, Seton Hall, Xavier
WINCT: SJU, Butler, DePaul, Georgetown

ACC:
LOCKS: Duke
WORK TO DO: ND, UNC, Miami, Wake Forest
WINCT: UVA, VT, Cuse, BC, UL, FSU, Pitt, Clemson, NCSU, GT

Pac 12:
LOCKS: Arizona, UCLA, USC
WORK TO DO: Oregon
WINCT: Colorado, WSU, UW, Stanford, ASU, Utah, Cal, Oregon State

Others:
LOCKS: Gonzaga, Colorado State, St. Mary's, Murray State
WORK TO DO: Houston, Memphis, SMU, Boise State, Wyoming, SDSU, UNLV, San Francisco, BYU, Davidson, VCU, Dayton, Loyola Chicago, North Texas, Belmont

Assuming a LOCK wins their respective conference tournament, there are 33 teams for 24 spots.

Conferences to keep an eye on as far as "bid thieves": AAC, Mtn. West, A-10, OVC.
 
Creighton is not a lock. Especially without Nemhard. If they free fall and lose all 4 their NET will be baaaaaaad. They will finish with like 4 Q1 wins.

Would have them sweating it majorly and honestly probably out. Win 1 more and should be safe.
 
Mr.Hockey said:
Creighton is not a lock. Especially without Nemhard. If they free fall and lose all 4 their NET will be baaaaaaad. They will finish with like 4 Q1 wins.

Would have them sweating it majorly and honestly probably out. Win 1 more and should be safe.
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That was probably the toughest one for me to consider a lock. The premise I had for making them a lock, even losing out, is they wouldn't take on another bad loss(assuming they don't fall to 6th and face Georgetown). Then all bets are off. But losing out likely puts them in the 4/5 game against SHU/Marquette, a loss there is still a Q1 loss. They'd still have a combined winning record in Q's 1-3 and have 8 combined Q1/Q2 wins. It would be close, admittedly.
 
ericd7633 said:
That was probably the toughest one for me to consider a lock. The premise I had for making them a lock, even losing out, is they wouldn't take on another bad loss(assuming they don't fall to 6th and face Georgetown). Then all bets are off. But losing out likely puts them in the 4/5 game against SHU/Marquette, a loss there is still a Q1 loss. They'd still have a combined winning record in Q's 1-3 and have 8 combined Q1/Q2 wins. It would be close, admittedly.
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ISU would be a tough lock too hypothetically. a 6-13 record in Big12 games would be an abmonination if they do somehow lose all of the next 4.
 
Mr.Hockey said:
ISU would be a tough lock too hypothetically. a 6-13 record in Big12 games would be an abmonination if they do somehow lose all of the next 4.
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Yeah, it's pretty crazy to think a 6-13 conference record would have anyone in the field. But they have a ton of Q1 wins/wins against the field. Even with losing out and being in the 8/9 game against WVU, a loss against them is still a Q2 loss. They'd be 10-13 against Q1/Q2 teams. That's pretty good.
 
If it comes to all the BE teams losing out, I think Marquette gets in first because they swept Nova and destroyed Providence.

They're schedlue is easy though. They should be able to get at least 2 of those games.
 
jontaejones said:
If it comes to all the BE teams losing out, I think Marquette gets in first because they swept Nova and destroyed Providence.

They're schedlue is easy though. They should be able to get at least 2 of those games.
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Yeah, this is very well said. Marquette, IMO, isn't quite a lock at the moment, but with that said, their ceiling is much higher to get better seed than Creighton is.
 
jontaejones said:
If it comes to all the BE teams losing out, I think Marquette gets in first because they swept Nova and destroyed Providence.

They're schedlue is easy though. They should be able to get at least 2 of those games.
Click to expand...

Only reason we are not a lock right now is because hypothetically losing the last 3 plus a BET(would now be against a bottom team in this scenario) would be 4 awful losses two at home.

That would be a bad finish even for Wojo. Win just two and we are not anywhere near the bubble. But its that fine a line imo with how bad the remaining games are.

Edit. I did miss the if we all lose out part. Still think ours would look awful though haha.
 
I'd say Notre Dame is a lock as well. No way you can finish that many games over .500 in the ACC and get left off. It's a bad year, but still the ACC.

SEC bubble is garbage. Clearly a top heavy league.

I think it will be a lot clearer in 1 week. Bubble is decent this year, teams like Indiana can do some damage.
 
The team that is in trouble could be UNC. They have a tough schedule and they haven't done shit this year.
 
jontaejones said:
I'd say Notre Dame is a lock as well. No way you can finish that many games over .500 in the ACC and get left off. It's a bad year, but still the ACC.

SEC bubble is garbage. Clearly a top heavy league.

I think it will be a lot clearer in 1 week. Bubble is decent this year, teams like Indiana can do some damage.
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Their remaining schedule is so bad that if they did hypothetically lose out they'd add 2 Q3 losses and a Q4 loss. 19-12 isn't getting in at that point IMO. With that said, they'll probably win out and be locked heading into the ACCT.
 
Mr.Hockey said:
ISU would be a tough lock too hypothetically. a 6-13 record in Big12 games would be an abmonination if they do somehow lose all of the next 4.
Click to expand...
They have Baylor, K-State and Ok State. Since Okie Lite ain't eligible, how are wins/losses considered by the committee when playing them? Or does it matter at all?
 
jontaejones said:
I'd say Notre Dame is a lock as well. No way you can finish that many games over .500 in the ACC and get left off. It's a bad year, but still the ACC.

SEC bubble is garbage. Clearly a top heavy league.

I think it will be a lot clearer in 1 week. Bubble is decent this year, teams like Indiana can do some damage.
Click to expand...
Yeah, when I'm looking at Bubble Teams I'm trying to see which team I wouldn't want to play if I'm a lock. I don't see any of those SEC bubbles I would "dread" playing. Teams that are "scary good" at times. I don't see any of those being that way.
 
Deep Creek said:
They have Baylor, K-State and Ok State. Since Okie Lite ain't eligible, how are wins/losses considered by the committee when playing them? Or does it matter at all?
Click to expand...

The problem with the Big12 bubble is that league is so top heavy that so many teams are well under .500.

But it's clearly more than a 4 bid league.

So ... maybe go with 5 teams, and let the 6th sweat it out, depending on record.
 
I think UVa can get in if they win out and make a ACCCG appearance.
They have FSU in Cville. FSU is 3-8 on the road.
They have Loserville in Loserville. Loserville is 1-4 over their last 5 home games.
Current ACCT seeding has them playing winner of BC/GT, then Miami, ND, then Duke/UNC.
That would be 2, Q1 wins in the ACCT, and if they lose close to Duke in ACCCG, that may be enough to get them in.
 
Ler me tell you this

If Iowa loses out theyre not getting in

And it wouldnt even be close

Theyd be 19-13 ( 9-11 ) with 1 Q1 win ( max ) and 2 Q4 losses

Theyd be like a 5 seed in the NIT lol
 
rmilia1 said:
Ler me tell you this

If Iowa loses out theyre not getting in

And it wouldnt even be close

Theyd be 19-13 ( 9-11 ) with 1 Q1 win ( max ) and 2 Q4 losses

Theyd be like a 5 seed in the NIT lol
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Thats nuts.

I don't how they got to 9 wins in the Big10 with only 1 Quad 1 win
 
jontaejones said:
Thats nuts.

I don't how they got to 9 wins in the Big10 with only 1 Quad 1 win
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Every time they get a half way decent Q1 win the team who lost to them drops to Q2. Happened like 3 times this year already lol

But yes 19-13 ( 9-11 ) 1-7 in Q1 with 2 Q4 losses ( as theyd have to lose @Nebraska and vs NW to lose out ) isnt getting in

Iowa needs to win at Nebraska and vs NW then theyll be safe as there woupdnt be any bad losses left to hurt them

But theyre no lock right now
 
rmilia1 said:
Every time they get a half way decent Q1 win the team who lost to them drops to Q2. Happened like 3 times this year already lol

But yes 19-13 ( 9-11 ) 1-7 in Q1 with 2 Q4 losses ( as theyd have to lose @Nebraska and vs NW to lose out ) isnt getting in

Iowa needs to win at Nebraska and vs NW then theyll be safe as there woupdnt be any bad losses left to hurt them

But theyre no lock right now
Click to expand...
In hindsight, this is just as amazing as Wisconsin's success
 
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