12 team CFP today

[fishinabarrel]

Feel free to tell me which one loss teams Oregon is going to get in over?

Alabama with 1 loss?
Ohio State with 1 loss?
Georgia with 1 loss?
Tennessee with 1 loss?
Michigan with 1 loss?
Clemson with 1 loss?

Obviously a couple of these teams will finish with zero losses. But which team is Oregon going to get in over?

Michigan loss would be to undefeated Ohio State. As long as they don't lose by 46 -- it'd be a better loss than Oregon has.

Bama's loss would be to Tennessee on a last second field goal and they'd have to beat Georgia to finish with 1 loss. Zero chance Oregon gets in over them.

Tennessee's loss would be to Georgia AT Georgia. As long as they are absolutely embarrassed by Georgia like Oregon, no chance Oregon gets in over them.

Ohio State's one loss would be to undefeated UM -- As long as they don't get boat raced in Columbus by UM -- no chance they take Oregon over them, as they will simply point out the FORTY SIX POINT LOSS by Oregon.

Clemson -- I truly don't know who their one loss would be to. They have Syracuse this weekend, but I can't say I know enough about ACC teams, I just know Syracuse is undefeated. I'd say NC State could have been a loss, but they lost their QB.

Georgia's loss would be to either Tennessee or Alabama -- NO CHANCE Oregon gets in over them. Hell -- a 2 loss Georgia would get in over a 1 loss Oregon after they murdered Oregon like they did.

Unless you are trying to say all these teams are going to lose two of their last 5 or 6 games. T

I think there is more than a 50/50 shot they would get in over a 1 loss non conference champ Michigan or Ohio State. They would get in over a third one loss SEC team. They would get in over a one loss non conference champ Clemson but not over a one loss conference champ Clemson.

 

[fishinabarrel]

You lost by 46. FORTY SIX. The game was a blowout from the first drive all the way to the last.

There is zero chance the CFP says - you know what would make a great matchup. Georgia can play the team they murdered by seven touchdowns this year.

Florida State lost by 32 to Florida and also beat them in the same season.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

I think there is more than a 50/50 shot they would get in over a 1 loss non conference champ Michigan or Ohio State. They would get in over a third one loss SEC team. They would get in over a one loss non conference champ Clemson but not over a one loss conference champ Clemson.

Ok, Tennessee beats Georgia, goes to the SEC CG undefeated and plays Bama. Bama beats Tennessee. Now Georgia is a 1 loss 3rd SEC team. Oregon gets in over them?

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Florida State lost by 32 to Florida and also beat them in the same season.

You can continue to say it and try to cherry pick a game from the past, but with Oregon's loss being as bad as it was -- they'd need Georgia to lose two games to have even the slightest chance to make the CFP. On top of Georgia needing to lose twice, they'd need Clemson to lose, they'd need the Ohio State Michigan game to be a blowout one way or the other and they'd need TCU to lose.

So is the chance they make the CFP zero? Not literally, but as doctors say, "less than a 1% chance because miracles happen".

 

[fishinabarrel]

Ok, Tennessee beats Georgia, goes to the SEC CG undefeated and plays Bama. Bama beats Tennessee. Now Georgia is a 1 loss 3rd SEC team. Oregon gets in over them?

In that scenario Georgia and Oregon would be out

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

In that scenario Georgia and Oregon would be out

Ok. Tennessee plays Georgia coming up. Say Georgia pulls out the game on a last second FG, like Tennessee did against Bama. Giving Tennessee their one and only loss. Georgia goes to the SEC CG and loses to Bama.

Who would you choose between 1 loss Oregon and 1 loss Tennessee?

 

[fishinabarrel]

Ok. Tennessee plays Georgia coming up. Say Georgia pulls out the game on a last second FG, like Tennessee did against Bama. Giving Tennessee their one and only loss. Georgia goes to the SEC CG and loses to Bama.

Who would you choose between 1 loss Oregon and 1 loss Tennessee?

In that scenario, the committee would be under tremendous pressure to keep Tennessee out and I believe would

 

[OlyDuck]

I'm talking more end of the year with one loss than right now. There are a lot of 1 loss teams right now who will have 2, 3 losses by the end of the year.

Alabama
Georgia
Clemson
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee

Out of those 6, which teams would you take Oregon over if they finished with 1 loss. We can safely see who the losses will be to for those teams.

maybe so but who are we to say which of the 1 loss teams will or wont have only 1 loss at season end. i answered in terms of all of them. can we safely see that? please tell me how we see that. Alabama is the only because they have their loss. would i take oregon over alabama. this year after seeing them against texas and Texas A&m as well as now with a loss to Tennessee? yeah i just might.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

maybe so but who are we to say which of the 1 loss teams will or wont have only 1 loss at season end. i answered in terms of all of them. can we safely see that? please tell me how we see that. Alabama is the only because they have their loss. would i take oregon over alabama. this year after seeing them against texas and Texas A&m as well as now with a loss to Tennessee? yeah i just might.

Bama's loss was on a last second FG to undefeated Tennessee. Not to beat a dead horse, but Oregon's was not. I realize you, as an Oregon fan, might choose Oregon over Bama, but the selection committee sure as hell isn't. Though it won't matter with Bama. If they win out -- they are automatically in, as the SEC champ.

 

[OlyDuck]

I'm talking more end of the year with one loss than right now. There are a lot of 1 loss teams right now who will have 2, 3 losses by the end of the year.

Alabama
Georgia
Clemson
Ohio State
Michigan
Tennessee

Out of those 6, which teams would you take Oregon over if they finished with 1 loss. We can safely see who the losses will be to for those teams.

saying we can safely see the losses is like saying we safely saw Ohio State losing to VT in 2014. we safely saw Clemson losing to Pitt in 2016. that we safely saw USC losing to Oregon state. there is no safely

 

[OlyDuck]

Bama's loss was on a last second FG to undefeated Tennessee. Not to beat a dead horse, but Oregon's was not. I realize you, as an Oregon fan, might choose Oregon over Bama, but the selection committee sure as hell isn't. Though it won't matter with Bama. If they win out -- they are automatically in, as the SEC champ.

i kinda already said that

 

[OlyDuck]

Bama's loss was on a last second FG to undefeated Tennessee. Not to beat a dead horse, but Oregon's was not. I realize you, as an Oregon fan, might choose Oregon over Bama, but the selection committee sure as hell isn't. Though it won't matter with Bama. If they win out -- they are automatically in, as the SEC champ.

i misunderstood your question as to in a game would i take oregon over bama

 

[OlyDuck]

I think there is more than a 50/50 shot they would get in over a 1 loss non conference champ Michigan or Ohio State. They would get in over a third one loss SEC team. They would get in over a one loss non conference champ Clemson but not over a one loss conference champ Clemson.

i still hold that if they lose to a 3-7 Louisville or Miami but still win the conference, i would take Oregon over them.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

i still hold that if they lose to a 3-7 Louisville or Miami but still win the conference, i would take Oregon over them.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Personally, only scenario I see where Oregon gets in is mass chaos -- meaning, Bama loses again, Georgia loses twice, Clemson loses twice, TCU loses in the Big 12 CCG and either Michigan or Ohio State win in a blow out game.

So is it a 0% chance? No. I'd safely bet my life savings on it though

 

[OlyDuck]

You can continue to say it and try to cherry pick a game from the past, but with Oregon's loss being as bad as it was -- they'd need Georgia to lose two games to have even the slightest chance to make the CFP. On top of Georgia needing to lose twice, they'd need Clemson to lose, they'd need the Ohio State Michigan game to be a blowout one way or the other and they'd need TCU to lose.

So is the chance they make the CFP zero? Not literally, but as doctors say, "less than a 1% chance because miracles happen".

you miss the probability and possibility due to who has to still play that it could happen

1. Assuming Oregon wins out (for the record i dont think they will)
2. UCLA plays out this weekend
3. Ole Miss and Alabama plays out 1 will lose and fall behind
4. Michigan and Ohio State plays at the end of the season so whoever loses could fall back enough because by then Oregon could have pushed up into top 5
5. TCU and Clemson should stay ahead as long as they win but if they lose they will not.
6. Syracuse could jump with a win over Clemson and win out.
7. UGA will stay ahead of Oregon with 1 loss.
8. Tenn should stay ahead of Oregon with 1 loss to UGA but maybe not if loss is to someone else.

 

[OlyDuck]

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Personally, only scenario I see where Oregon gets in is mass chaos -- meaning, Bama loses again, Georgia loses twice, Clemson loses twice, TCU loses in the Big 12 CCG and either Michigan or Ohio State win in a blow out game.

So is it a 0% chance? No. I'd safely bet my life savings on it though

So if Oregon beats UCLA moves to 9 and Clemson loses one of the games i said before you dont see Clemson falling 4 spots?

 

[OlyDuck]

all of this could very well be a moot point by 330 sat

 

[Red_Alert]

For Oregon. Yes. Nebraska has the same chance as Oregon to get into the CFP this year.

For the rest of the 7-8 teams at the top -- it will be a fight to see who gets one of the 4 spots.

Again.. That's why nobody takes you seriously on here.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Again.. That's why nobody takes you seriously on here.

Wait -- are you saying the random chat room people don't take me serious? NOOOOOOO!!!!

FYI -- I'm still waiting on your response on what I got wrong about Nebraska since they joined the B1G. It is priceless to hear the silence from you though.

 

[Thiefery]

see, this is great..people say 12 teams is too much but here we are.. arguing.. one day we will want it to expand to 18 teams