2025 Derby Preps

psaboy

psaboy

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Derby preps are starting to become more frequent, three today. For the 1st race @ Aqueduct, I'm going 6,4/1,6,7/1,6,7 Tri
& 5,7/5,6/1,2,5,6
 
2nd prep today is the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita, Baffert pretty much owns this race. Small field, don't really like betting on races with less than 7 in field. Citizens Bull is hands down favorite. Baffert has (2) more in race and they look to be the 2nd and 3rd choice. I'm throwing the 5 out, way out classed. Throwing in the #4 as a long shot in my tri
 
Have to take a pass on this race, just don't see any money in this one
 
Holy Bull third prep today. I like Irad on #4 and the local horse #7. #3 Tappan Street with #2 Ferocious are the four to look at. Gaffalione is a top jockey at Gulfstream, may need to thro him in.
 
Sam F. Davis at Tampa Downs this afternoon. Big question is can Owen Almighty handle his first two turn race and go over a mile. Poster is undefeated, John Hancock and Treaty of Rome ae others to consider. Long shot is Smoken Boy, but has raced solely in Puerto Rico, came back from pack in last on to get 9-1/2 length win, not much competition over there so not sure what that race tells me. Naughty Rascal, may get mixed in on the Tri's or Super.
 
The Risen Star at Fairgrounds start the 50 point prize for the derby, The favorite East Avenue will have a challenge I think with the distance so hard to back at short price. I'm looking at Built, Septarian & Vassimo because Irad as on the mount. Long shots to consider are Chunk of Gold & Giocoso.
 
Well, I completely overlooked Magnitude. Should have looked at jockey, Ben Curtis is high producer at Fairgrounds. Huge payouts, over $5,398 on a $0.10 super and $3,425 on a $0.50 tri.
 
Missed races last week

Three Derby preps today; Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream), Gotham (Aqueduct) & San Felipe (Santa Anita). Will look at Fountain of Youth and Gotham, only 6 running in San Felipe, races with less than 7 horses don't really interest me.
 
Looks like FofY race is down to 6 horses. So, here is what I see for the Gotham. Top three choices, 5,4,3 have the three top jockeys for Aqueduct on the mount, so one of those three should take the race. 4 & 5 are unbeaten in races and at Auqeduct, so I think it comes down to one of them. 3 has four races of 1mile+ and is said to have some closing speed, so may put him in a value play, want to see how the odds play out when it gets close to race time. 10 and 2 look good to mix in a tri or super. Long shot I see is 6, can't throw out 9 with Cox as trainer
 
Didn't look at TB Derby, only 7 horses. Did watch and saw Patch Adams, post time favorite seemed to get pulled up. Wondering if something went bad for horse and Jockey didn't want to run him out of caution.
 
Not much to like on the VA Derby, hadn't really looked at. Form what I've heard, getaway car and raptiure are the faves, think I'll roll with a better odds horse on top, omaha omaha and authentic gallop.
 
Need to see how odds play out on Florida Derby, 10, 8 & 9 are the three favorites. Thinking 8 will fade in the last push to the wire, seems to have issues over 7f's. 10 is probably one to go with, but odds will not be attractive, looking at 6 & 4 in the mix to possibly get upset or a second to put some money in a tri or super, 1 is live long shot and 7 is longer long shot
 
Arkansas Derby, just see 2 horse capable of the win, Coal Battle (8) and Cornucopian (9). 5 possible but long shot I feel to get to wire, 6 runs well at Oaklawn. Maybe throw the 3 in there, Prat is having decent day today, Long shot for a 3rd or 4th to put some money into a tri or super I see is the 4, has some good pedigree
 
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