Big 12 thread

[Red_Alert]

I'm just going on what people have said. Big 12 fans on twitter seemed insistent that a Big 12 couldn't leave for the PAC without a huge exit fee. Maybe they were just FOS

It would take 8 teams leaving early to void that.

With TX/OU wanting to get to the SEC, then the PAC 12 would have to take 6 other Big 12 teams.

Not happening.

 

[ralphiewvu]

When the Big Ten is done expanding, Oregon and Washington would consider joining the Big 12 if they aren't included. Taking the worst programs in the PAC isn't going to force their hand. Arizona and CU are not valuable programs and can easily be replaced. There's no reason to for the Big 12 to bring on programs that probably don't add any value.

When the ACC schools become available, some of them may join the Big Ten and some may join the ACC. However, it might not be as many as you think. It's going to be a high bar in order to add value to either conference. Some big name programs like FSU, Miami FL, Clemson, etc. could be available and aren't going to prefer staying in a diminished ACC.

Keep in mind that for every school the Big 12 adds, they have to keep splitting up their revenue more ways. That's why I don't think you jump at the first "yes" you get. Hold out because some big names could become available over the next 10-15 years. This isn't the time to panic and add CU IMO

If the PAC loses 4 more teams it’s absolutely going To force Udubs and Oregons hand to do something. They aren’t going to remain in a PAC with themselves and 4 other schools.

The B12 has virtually no shot at teams like Clemson, FSU, UNC etc…. They are getting into the SEC/B1G. Holding out for the likes of Pitt, BC, VPI, Syracuse or Wake isn’t going to add some monstrous deal for the B12 ether. (Although I’d love it)

I get it, you don’t want Oregon to be forced to do something right away. But the b12 needs to be hunters on this for Once though or in 12 months we maybe talking again how the PAC could be a hunter.

 

[Thiefery]

The PAC 12's GOR expires before the Big 12 GOR expires.

It makes far more sense for PAC teams to go to the Big 12. Therefore the Big 12 by-laws would remain in effect.

Sorry!!

The difference is one year.. but i don't think that's going to be a huge reason whether they expand or not. I think it has slowed down because they still are in an exclusive negotiations window.. and the money really isn't going to be much greater either way.

How much money does Colorado and Arizona bring to the Big 12? How much money does Texas Tech or okie light bring to the Pac?
I don't see a rush of musical chairs because it really doesn't matter unless you get an invite to the top 2 conferences.

Big12 is paying out 41 mil for it's tier 1 and 2 rights this season to 10 schools (thanks to UT for that).. the networks continued to pay them as if it were 12 schools.. How much more will they get once the new 4 come in and ou/UT exit? The same?

Whether they merge or poach.. they aren't getting the 50 mil they hope to get.. either side

 

[Deep Creek]

I guess if they decided to move on before 2025.. But it's weird they invited the new 4 schools.. did they have to sign a new GOR?

I’ll bet their “buyer’s remorse” regarding Houston is even worse now than when they had to hold their nose and do it last year!

 

[Red_Alert]

The difference is one year.. but i don't think that's going to be a huge reason whether they expand or not. I think it has slowed down because they still are in an exclusive negotiations window.. and the money really isn't going to be much greater either way.

How much money does Colorado and Arizona bring to the Big 12? How much money does Texas Tech or okie light bring to the Pac?
I don't see a rush of musical chairs because it really doesn't matter unless you get an invite to the top 2 conferences.

Big12 is paying out 41 mil for it's tier 1 and 2 rights this season to 10 schools (thanks to UT for that).. the networks continued to pay them as if it were 12 schools.. How much more will they get once the new 4 come in and ou/UT exit? The same?

Whether they merge or poach.. they aren't getting the 50 mil they hope to get.. either side

Why you telling me this and asking me these questions?

I'm not the one who's been using mental gymnastics to figure out how TX/OU can depart the Big 12 early and avoid the GOR exit fee.

 

[ralphiewvu]

The difference is one year.. but i don't think that's going to be a huge reason whether they expand or not. I think it has slowed down because they still are in an exclusive negotiations window.. and the money really isn't going to be much greater either way.

How much money does Colorado and Arizona bring to the Big 12? How much money does Texas Tech or okie light bring to the Pac?
I don't see a rush of musical chairs because it really doesn't matter unless you get an invite to the top 2 conferences.

Big12 is paying out 41 mil for it's tier 1 and 2 rights this season to 10 schools (thanks to UT for that).. the networks continued to pay them as if it were 12 schools.. How much more will they get once the new 4 come in and ou/UT exit? The same?

Whether they merge or poach.. they aren't getting the 50 mil they hope to get.. either side

Yeah I’m not really sure what you are getting at. No one here is arguing the B12 adding anybody from the PAC is going to get paid what they are now. It’s basically about survival and killing off a conference that was a hunter 12 months ago but now is getting hunted. But adding markets such as Denver and Phoenix is actually pretty decent given the circumstances. Also it basically solidifies the B12 (while behind by a lot) is the 3rd wheel to the P2.

 

[duckboy33]

If the PAC loses 4 more teams it’s absolutely going To force Udubs and Oregons hand to do something. They aren’t going to remain in a PAC with themselves and 4 other schools.

The B12 has virtually no shot at teams like Clemson, FSU, UNC etc…. They are getting into the SEC/B1G. Holding out for the likes of Pitt, BC, VPI, Syracuse or Wake isn’t going to add some monstrous deal for the B12 ether. (Although I’d love it)

I get it, you don’t want Oregon to be forced to do something right away. But the b12 needs to be hunters on this for Once though or in 12 months we maybe talking again how the PAC could be a hunter.

Taking on 4 schools that probably add no value is a bad plan considering that forcing UO and Udubs hand doesn't mean they will join the Big 12. If Oregon and Washington are the schools the Big 12 wants, they should focus on adding them, even if it means waiting. This reminds me of when the PAC added Colorado expecting much of the Big 12 to follow. They didn't and the PAC got stuck with CU. I doubt the Big 12 makes this mistake, with the same school nonetheless.

I also don't think it's a guarantee that every big brand in the ACC finds a home in the P2. A lot of them don't fit the Big Ten profile and wouldn't expand the SEC footprint. There will be better brands available if you're patient. It seems like the Big 12 fans are suffering from PTSD. Adding more low value programs isn't going to make the Big 12 stronger.

I think the new big 12 commissioner gets it. He talked a lot about only adding teams only if it's "additive and not dilutive". I read that as "lol we aren't going to rush and add Colorado".

 

[Red_Alert]

I find it hilarious that tejas started this entire re-alignment fiasco. They wanted to take 3 other Big 12 teams to the PAC. That made Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, and A&M jump ship for security.

Of course tejas had two fingers crossed behind their back the entire time.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Taking on 4 schools that probably add no value is a bad plan considering that forcing UO and Udubs hand doesn't mean they will join the Big 12. If Oregon and Washington are the schools the Big 12 wants, they should focus on adding them, even if it means waiting. This reminds me of when the PAC added Colorado expecting much of the Big 12 to follow. They didn't and the PAC got stuck with CU. I doubt the Big 12 makes this mistake, with the same school nonetheless.

I also don't think it's a guarantee that every big brand in the ACC finds a home in the P2. A lot of them don't fit the Big Ten profile and wouldn't expand the SEC footprint. There will be better brands available if you're patient. It seems like the Big 12 fans are suffering from PTSD. Adding more low value programs isn't going to make the Big 12 stronger.

I think the new big 12 commissioner gets it. He talked a lot about only adding teams only if it's "additive and not dilutive". I read that as "lol we aren't going to rush and add Colorado".

The B12 isnt naïve enough to think Udub and uO want to join the conference. The only way they join is if they have to. Plus you act as if getting the Denver and Phoenix market is some nonchalant thing. Those are good markets for the B12 and add Value.

I don’t see any way the B12 has a chance to add Clemson, FSU, UNC or Virginia. On top of that you have Miami, VPI and who??? Much like the PAC there is no one there worth holding out for. Making the B12 stronger compared to who? There is nothing the B12 will add that will make them as strong as the P2. But adding schools such as the four corners will make them stronger then the PAC, and once the ACC loses there schools they’ll be stronger then the ACC too. I’m realist, being Stronger then the PAC and the ACC is something the B12 should strive for.

He also said we are open for business. Really nobody we can add and expect to keep will add the preferred value. But if it helps the B12 solidify #3 then I’m all for it.

 

[duckboy33]

The B12 isnt naïve enough to think Udub and uO want to join the conference. The only way they join is if they have to. Plus you act as if getting the Denver and Phoenix market is some nonchalant thing. Those are good markets for the B12 and add Value.

I don’t see any way the B12 has a chance to add Clemson, FSU, UNC or Virginia. On top of that you have Miami, VPI and who??? Much like the PAC there is no one there worth holding out for. Making the B12 stronger compared to who? There is nothing the B12 will add that will make them as strong as the P2. But adding schools such as the four corners will make them stronger then the PAC, and once the ACC loses there schools they’ll be stronger then the ACC too. I’m realist, being Stronger then the PAC and the ACC is something the B12 should strive for.

He also said we are open for business. Really nobody we can add and expect to keep will add the preferred value. But if it helps the B12 solidify #3 then I’m all for it.

I doubt any major brand wants to join the Big 12 right now. But the Big 12's central location could be the key to them getting some major brands that could make them a clear #3. It seems like pride is getting in the way of some fans judgement. It's far more valuable to be Oregon, Washington, Miami, Virginia Tech, FSU, etc. 2nd choice than CU's first choice. Adding bad programs with low value is exactly what your commissioner said he wouldn't do.

Viewership in 2021 (Future Big 12 and Arizona/CU for comparison):
Oklahoma State - 1.58M
Iowa State - 1.22M
Cincinnati - 1.22M
Baylor - 1.16M
West Virginia - 948K
TCU - 907K
BYU - 893K
Texas Tech - 798K
Kansas State - 636K
Kansas - 540K
UCF - 407K
Colorado - 366K
Arizona - 337K
Houston - 232K

CU and Arizona is really the move? I don't see it. It might not even be revenue neutral for the Big 12

 

[duckboy33]

The difference is one year.. but i don't think that's going to be a huge reason whether they expand or not. I think it has slowed down because they still are in an exclusive negotiations window.. and the money really isn't going to be much greater either way.

How much money does Colorado and Arizona bring to the Big 12? How much money does Texas Tech or okie light bring to the Pac?
I don't see a rush of musical chairs because it really doesn't matter unless you get an invite to the top 2 conferences.

Big12 is paying out 41 mil for it's tier 1 and 2 rights this season to 10 schools (thanks to UT for that).. the networks continued to pay them as if it were 12 schools.. How much more will they get once the new 4 come in and ou/UT exit? The same?

Whether they merge or poach.. they aren't getting the 50 mil they hope to get.. either side

I agree. All these moves are made because of TV money increases. If the differences are marginal, I doubt there's any movement. This goes for university decisions and conference decisions.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I doubt any major brand wants to join the Big 12 right now. But the Big 12's central location could be the key to them getting some major brands that could make them a clear #3. It seems like pride is getting in the way of some fans judgement. It's far more valuable to be Oregon, Washington, Miami, Virginia Tech, FSU, etc. 2nd choice than CU's first choice. Adding bad programs with low value is exactly what your commissioner said he wouldn't do.

Viewership in 2021 (Future Big 12 and Arizona/CU for comparison):
Oklahoma State - 1.58M
Iowa State - 1.22M
Cincinnati - 1.22M
Baylor - 1.16M
West Virginia - 948K
TCU - 907K
BYU - 893K
Texas Tech - 798K
Kansas State - 636K
Kansas - 540K
UCF - 407K
Colorado - 366K
Arizona - 337K
Houston - 232K

CU and Arizona is really the move? I don't see it. It might not even be revenue neutral for the Big 12

First no one is saying any major brands want the B12. But again, big Brands like Udub and UO aren’t coming unless they have to. The B12 standing Pat is almost assuredly going to mean Udub and UO won’t join, and why would they? This is just common sense that some fans seem to ignore.

The B12 is not getting Clemson, FSU, UNC or Virginia. There aren’t many if any other ACC teams that will produce a monster deal if they wait.

So to break it down in simple terms, if the B12 does indeed want Udub and UO, they’ll have to bring in said bad programs (CU/UA) in order to force the value programs hands. Doing Nothing won’t do jack.

 

[duckboy33]

First no one is saying any major brands want the B12. But again, big Brands like Udub and UO aren’t coming unless they have to. The B12 standing Pat is almost assuredly going to mean Udub and UO won’t join, and why would they? This is just common sense that some fans seem to ignore.

The B12 is not getting Clemson, FSU, UNC or Virginia. There aren’t many if any other ACC teams that will produce a monster deal if they wait.

So to break it down in simple terms, if the B12 does indeed want Udub and UO, they’ll have to bring in said bad programs (CU/UA) in order to force the value programs hands. Doing Nothing won’t do jack.

It depends on how things shake out. If Stanford leaves to go to the Big Ten with Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington's interest in the Big 12 probably increases. Adding UO, UW, ASU and Utah is a far more valuable move than adding CU and Zona and hoping for the best. If the Big 12 wanted to speed up that process they could try to offer Oregon and UW something they want right now, flexibility when it comes to GOR. It's a gamble but if the Big Ten doesn't come calling, it could work out for the Big 12.

As for the ACC, I think there's a chance there are some more valuable brands then you think. These big contracts make expansion harder and harder. It's likely IMO that at least a couple of Miami, FSU, Clemson, Louisville are available.

Remember, Arizona and CU are pushing for this the hardest because they understand they're the least valuable pieces that are being talked about. They're concerned about being locked out if the PAC falls apart. It's notable that ASU and Utah do not seem as ready to make a move.

 

[ralphiewvu]

It depends on how things shake out. If Stanford leaves to go to the Big Ten with Notre Dame, Oregon and Washington's interest in the Big 12 probably increases. Adding UO, UW, ASU and Utah is a far more valuable move than adding CU and Zona and hoping for the best. If the Big 12 wanted to speed up that process they could try to offer Oregon and UW something they want right now, flexibility when it comes to GOR. It's a gamble but if the Big Ten doesn't come calling, it could work out for the Big 12.

As for the ACC, I think there's a chance there are some more valuable brands then you think. These big contracts make expansion harder and harder. It's likely IMO that at least a couple of Miami, FSU, Clemson, Louisville are available.

Remember, Arizona and CU are pushing for this the hardest because they understand they're the least valuable pieces that are being talked about. They're concerned about being locked out if the PAC falls apart. It's notable that ASU and Utah do not seem as ready to make a move.

It’s a gamble ether way. I don’t see stanford getting a lifeline to the B1G but one of Udud/UO or both not receiving one. I think the only way Udub/UO go to the B12 is if they have to because there aren’t many PAC teams left. The idea that’s the B12 could get Udub/UO on there own is foolish IMO.

Miami and Louisville, those Would be 2. But I’m still not convinced one of the P2 won’t grab Miami. The B1G to get into Florida and the SEC to protect Florida from the B1G. If the B1G wants 24 teams I could see them grabbing GaTech and Miami.

I get that, but Yormack has got to know if he wants Udub/UO the most realistic way to do that is bring other PAC members in. Sucks it has to be like that but that is where the B12 is.

 

[duckboy33]

It’s a gamble ether way. I don’t see stanford getting a lifeline to the B1G but one of Udud/UO or both not receiving one. I think the only way Udub/UO go to the B12 is if they have to because there aren’t many PAC teams left. The idea that’s the B12 could get Udub/UO on there own is foolish IMO.

Miami and Louisville, those Would be 2. But I’m still not convinced one of the P2 won’t grab Miami. The B1G to get into Florida and the SEC to protect Florida from the B1G. If the B1G wants 24 teams I could see them grabbing GaTech and Miami.

I get that, but Yormack has got to know if he wants Udub/UO the most realistic way to do that is bring other PAC members in. Sucks it has to be like that but that is where the B12 is.

1) Notre Dame is a rival with Stanford. They could certainly ask for Stanford to be #18 and I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Big Ten stops there.
2) Miami does not fit the Big Ten profile. I'm also not sure the SEC will double up their markets and add schools like FSU. It's possible but not a guarantee. I don't think either conference goes past 18 or 20.
3) While Oregon and UW are valuable, taking them in with a bunch of lower tier programs, and splitting up revenue 18 ways isn't going to be much of a gain. Not to mention adding all these programs makes it harder to add teams in the future.

It's a gamble, like every move. There's no slam dunk right now. But the Big 12's best bet IMO

1) Try to add ASU, Utah, UO and UW. ASU and Utah should be pushed for 1st. UO and Washington need some pressure but it's not worth taking Zona/CU. If you get ASU and Utah on board, allow UO and UW to have some flexibility on GOR. This is a gamble but the Big 12 needs to offer something to force a move.

2) Then look to see what's left of the ACC after the village. You might be surprised and end up with FSU and Miami. Maybe it's just Louisville and VT but that's not a bad worst case scenario.

 

[Deep Creek]

I doubt any major brand wants to join the Big 12 right now. But the Big 12's central location could be the key to them getting some major brands that could make them a clear #3. It seems like pride is getting in the way of some fans judgement. It's far more valuable to be Oregon, Washington, Miami, Virginia Tech, FSU, etc. 2nd choice than CU's first choice. Adding bad programs with low value is exactly what your commissioner said he wouldn't do.

Viewership in 2021 (Future Big 12 and Arizona/CU for comparison):
Oklahoma State - 1.58M
Iowa State - 1.22M
Cincinnati - 1.22M
Baylor - 1.16M
West Virginia - 948K
TCU - 907K
BYU - 893K
Texas Tech - 798K
Kansas State - 636K
Kansas - 540K
UCF - 407K
Colorado - 366K
Arizona - 337K
Houston - 232K

CU and Arizona is really the move? I don't see it. It might not even be revenue neutral for the Big 12

It wasn’t revenue neutral when they added Houston either. Which was boneheaded imo. Already had 3 Texas schools.

 

[duckboy33]

It wasn’t revenue neutral when they added Houston either. Which was boneheaded imo. Already had 3 Texas schools.

I agree but there’s no reason to make another bad decision

 

[ralphiewvu]

1) Notre Dame is a rival with Stanford. They could certainly ask for Stanford to be #18 and I wouldn't be totally shocked if the Big Ten stops there.
2) Miami does not fit the Big Ten profile. I'm also not sure the SEC will double up their markets and add schools like FSU. It's possible but not a guarantee. I don't think either conference goes past 18 or 20.
3) While Oregon and UW are valuable, taking them in with a bunch of lower tier programs, and splitting up revenue 18 ways isn't going to be much of a gain. Not to mention adding all these programs makes it harder to add teams in the future.

It's a gamble, like every move. There's no slam dunk right now. But the Big 12's best bet IMO

1) Try to add ASU, Utah, UO and UW. ASU and Utah should be pushed for 1st. UO and Washington need some pressure but it's not worth taking Zona/CU. If you get ASU and Utah on board, allow UO and UW to have some flexibility on GOR. This is a gamble but the Big 12 needs to offer something to force a move.

2) Then look to see what's left of the ACC after the village. You might be surprised and end up with FSU and Miami. Maybe it's just Louisville and VT but that's not a bad worst case scenario.

1) I don’t see the B1G stopping at 18 but it is certainly possible.
2) Miami absolutely fits the B1G, great academic school with a rich history in football and a major market and new state. Markets while still valuable aren’t as valuable as they were even 2 years ago. No chance Rutgers gets invited to the B1G today.
3) The B12 hoping the B1G takes Stanford and that’s it is the only way the B12 could get the other 2 alone. That’s a huge wish and gamble.

Even ASU and Utah feel like they’ll make a move to the B12 only if they are forced. I’m not sure what the appeal is with Utah though. Yes they are a good program but we have a good program already in that state in BYU. BYU will easily have the biggest following in the conference when UT and Okie leave.

Again I don’t see Clemson, FSU, Virginia or UNC left. None of the others will move the need to Have us gaining from bringing them in ether. That’s why I’m not sure why the B12 would wait.

 

[outofyourmind]

Miami absolutely fits the B1G, great academic school with a rich history in football

One 10 win Season in 18 Years ????

 

[ralphiewvu]

One 10 win Season in 18 Years ????

The program has 5 NC’s within the last 40 years. There recent history hasn’t been great but thats pretty darn good getting 5 since then.