CFP Rankings Nov. 15

[fishinabarrel]

I am not confident it happens. I think a 1-loss USC team will jump Tennessee but I am not sure about LSU. There is also precedence with an 11-1 Ohio State going over an 11-2 Penn State. A lot in media also agree.

Scenario probably won't happen but it would be interesting.

Funny thing is if Tennessee is called "Alabama", they would be a lock right now.

I would be absolutely shocked if LSU gets left out out while being SEC champion. They would have to keep Tennessee ahead bc of head to head while ignoring the head to head game of LSU-Georgia that just happened. Unless you are saying Georgia would get left out too.

I understand Tenn crushed LSU but their are plenty of convenient excuses to be used to get around that.

 

[Deep Creek]

I argued LSU and got raked over the coals. They won't beat my Dawgs, but if they did I think they are in. Most of the talking heads think so, FWIW.

Volbound1700 Playoff Watch - Week 8

Yes -- they absolutely have a shot, if Georgia isn't there. And yes, they all laughed. I actually felt bad for Oregon fans after seeing them react like that, because they all laughed. It's the opposite. Assuming UGA continues to roll, the margin of the loss to Georgia won't matter much when...

hooplanation.com

I think they'll be in if that happens. They'll have beaten the CFP's own 9/15 ranked #1 Georgia, #8 Bama and #14 Ole Miss. If the CFP doesn't value LSU at that point, then they overvalued Georgia, Bama and Ole Miss along the way with rankings that were too high.

That said, the LSU loss to Tennessee looks damn near as bad as Oregon's loss to Georgia. I guess it is the old "eye of the beholder" whether wins are valued more of losses are punished more. I tend to favor teams that have shown they can beat other good teams. I tend to write off crappy losses to a belief that 18-22 year old can go absolutely shit for brains sometimes. I also value the end of the year more than the beginning...which goes against the real CFB purists value of "every game matters."

 

[Deep Creek]

Funny thing is if Tennessee is called "Alabama", they would be a lock right now.

Yep. They proved in 2014 what a team is called matters A LOT. Let's say Texas or Oklahoma are ranked #3 in the next to the last CFP rankings in 2014. Saturday they beat Iowa State 55-3. Do you honestly think the CFP would have moved #5 Ohio State to #4 AND dropped #3 Texas or Oklahoma to the #6 spot?

NB4 the Big 12 winners didn't have the 13th data point, blah, blah, blah. That 13th data point would have been overlooked had the team been called Oklahoma or Texas.

 

[osubuckeye89]

I would be absolutely shocked if LSU gets left out out while being SEC champion. They would have to keep Tennessee ahead bc of head to head while ignoring the head to head game of LSU-Georgia that just happened. Unless you are saying Georgia would get left out too.

I understand Tenn crushed LSU but their are plenty of convenient excuses to be used to get around that.

Yea Tennessee is kind of boned because they are going to take Georgia over them. They aren't leaving the SEC champ out. Even if they have 2 loss and lost to Tennessee.

If it was JUST Tennessee vs LSU they might take Tennessee, but not in this case with UGA being in the mix as well.

 

[osubuckeye89]

Yep. They proved in 2014 what a team is called matters A LOT. Let's say Texas or Oklahoma are ranked #3 in the next to the last CFP rankings in 2014. Saturday they beat Iowa State 55-3. Do you honestly think the CFP would have moved #5 Ohio State to #4 AND dropped #3 Texas or Oklahoma to the #6 spot?

NB4 the Big 12 winners didn't have the 13th data point, blah, blah, blah. That 13th data point would have been overlooked had the team been called Oklahoma or Texas.

No lol. I've always said that Ohio State only got in the playoff in 2014 because it was at TCU & Baylor's expense. No way do we get in if its Texas & Oklahoma in those positions.

A team like TCU pretty much has to go undefeated because theyll find any reason they can to put a Ohio State, Bama, Georgia type team in over them if they all have 1 loss and are competing for a last spot. It's not fair, yes, but it's how it is. Hell people still seriously talk about even leaving them out if they are undefeated for a 1 loss team

 

[osubuckeye89]

That's because you didn't have the CFP. The CFP is the game changer. It stopped being, advance to the national championship game and instead makes team win 2 games to win a title.

In the final AP poll since 2012, they have finished 3, 12, 1, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3, 2, 6. OSU had some very good teams under Tressell, but the talent wasn't the same as the talent they are getting now.

Ohio State under Tressel pretty much recruited like Michigan recruits now

Theyd get some good players, but not the boatloads of top 100 guys we get now, it was a lot of player development into success.

I can only think of 2 classes under Tressell that i'd consider "top notch". The 2002 class was pretty loaded recruiting ranking wise as was the Terrell Pryor class (2008). Other than that they'd generally be around the top 10 but not near the top 3 like they are consistently now.

 

[Deep Creek]

No lol. I've always said that Ohio State only got in the playoff in 2014 because it was at TCU & Baylor's expense. No way do we get in if its Texas & Oklahoma in those positions.

A team like TCU pretty much has to go undefeated because theyll find any reason they can to put a Ohio State, Bama, Georgia type team in over them if they all have 1 loss and are competing for a last spot. It's not fair, yes, but it's how it is. Hell people still seriously talk about even leaving them out if they are undefeated for a 1 loss team

The CFP should change their charge from "the four best teams" to the "four best teams with historical names".

 

[osubuckeye89]

The CFP should change their charge from "the four best teams" to the "four best teams with historical names".

Exactly.

I always laugh when they talk about their "criteria" because it's all bullshit. They just morph the "criteria" into whatever they want it to be to fit the teams they really want in.

 

[Collegefbfan]

The CFP should change their charge from "the four best teams" to the "four best teams with historical names".

Or as Shannon Sharpe calls it. "The Alabama Invitational".

 

[Across The Field]

The CFP should change their charge from "the four best teams" to the "four best teams with historical names".

I'm not sure 2014 is the best example of that though. If OSU didn't have the chance to stomp the shit out of a top 15 Wisconsin team in the B1G CCG, they wouldn't have gotten in. The Big 12 was more to blame for TCU getting screwed than the CFP since they were too slow to adopt a CCG.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Ohio State under Tressel pretty much recruited like Michigan recruits now

Theyd get some good players, but not the boatloads of top 100 guys we get now, it was a lot of player development into success.

I can only think of 2 classes under Tressell that i'd consider "top notch". The 2002 class was pretty loaded recruiting ranking wise as was the Terrell Pryor class (2008). Other than that they'd generally be around the top 10 but not near the top 3 like they are consistently now.

I've been trying to explain this to @Volbound1700, but he doesn't seem to get it. Urban Meyer took OSU's recruiting from top 10-15 in the country to top 5 in the country. The difference is ENORMOUS. The difference is signing 8-12 top 100 recruits a year with most years having multiple 5 star recruits, while a top 10-15 class is getting 1-3 top 100 recruits with the occasional 5 star.

 

[osubuckeye89]

I've been trying to explain this to @Volbound1700, but he doesn't seem to get it. Urban Meyer took OSU's recruiting from top 10-15 in the country to top 5 in the country. The difference is ENORMOUS. The difference is signing 8-12 top 100 recruits a year with most years having multiple 5 star recruits, while a top 10-15 class is getting 1-3 top 100 recruits with the occasional 5 star.

Ohio State recruited better under John Cooper than they did Tressel for the most part. We weren't BAD by any means but generally more like 8-12 than top 3-5 like we are annually now.

There seems to be a common misconception that Tressell recruited like Urban and Day. I guess probably because he won a lot of games, but most of his classes don't hold a candle to any given year now a days.

The main reason Tressel couldn't beat Florida & LSU was because their talent on the lines was just so far superior to ours. It wasnt a "speed" problem like many want to claim. It was just that those Florida & LSU teams had far superior talent in the trenches. Ohio State had plenty of speed. Ohio State at that time just wasn't competing nationally for OL and DL recruits. Which was a problem, theyd get good players out of Ohio but nowhere near the elite level that schools like Florida and LSU were bringing in.

 

[Volbound1700]

Yea Tennessee is kind of boned because they are going to take Georgia over them. They aren't leaving the SEC champ out. Even if they have 2 loss and lost to Tennessee.

If it was JUST Tennessee vs LSU they might take Tennessee, but not in this case with UGA being in the mix as well.

They should take UGA over Tennessee. UGA beat us.

I am not so sure they take LSU if they win out. It will be a very interesting debate if it happened. However, I am not so sure the Conference Champ argument is that relevant because it hasn't mattered in the past as others have pointed out. I think USC has an argument if they win out because they would have beaten UCLA, Notre Dame, and either Oregon or Utah in a row.

Then again, LSU could barely beat Arkansas with a backup QB, they aren't beating Georgia.

 

[Volbound1700]

I've been trying to explain this to @Volbound1700, but he doesn't seem to get it. Urban Meyer took OSU's recruiting from top 10-15 in the country to top 5 in the country. The difference is ENORMOUS. The difference is signing 8-12 top 100 recruits a year with most years having multiple 5 star recruits, while a top 10-15 class is getting 1-3 top 100 recruits with the occasional 5 star.

I get it but I never bought your recruiting is a guaranteed success argument. I think there is more to it and it is just a component. Ohio State has better recruiting rankings (even the rankings are suspect) but they had better success on the field with Tressel in some ways.

Ohio State's top 5 classes haven't translated to that much in last 8 years (at least in post season play). Clemson doesn't have top 5 classes every year but they have been far more successful than Ohio State in the playoffs. You can't say "weak ACC" because Clemson has won more in playoffs including 2 National Titles.

You also trash LSU but they have more playoff wins over the stretch of time you posted than Ohio State. (Granted it is 2 wins to 1 win advantage).

 

[Volbound1700]

Going off the LSU vs. Tennessee argument (which is likely a waste of time and premature as both would have to win out)

Here is what happens:

LSU would have beaten Georgia and lost to Tennessee

Tennessee would have beat LSU and lost to Georgia

Georgia would have beaten Tennessee and lost to LSU

So you are at the traditional 3-way tie situation.

Let's look at full schedule:

Georgia:

Quality wins: Oregon and Tennessee (possibly Florida as well if they win out but I am not going to consider Florida since all 3 beat them and it is a wash)

Tennessee:

Quality Wins: Alabama and LSU (possibly Pittsburgh if they win out and sneak into top 25)

LSU:

Quality Wins: Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia
Important Loss: FSU

After some thought, beating Ole Miss really helps LSU's case because that gives them a 3rd quality win. The irony is that Georgia probably has the weakest resume if you look at teams they play but let's be honest, they will be in and it really comes down to LSU vs. Tennessee.

Tennessee has the head-to-head and one less loss. Tennessee also played both LSU and Georgia on the road. LSU would NOT have a quality road win as Atlanta would be considered "Neutral". LSU has 3 QWs against Tennessee's 2 QWs. Tennessee's only loss was in difficult road environment. The key items that hurt LSU is losing that game to FSU and losing the head-to-head and not even being competitive. The key advantages of LSU would be more quality wins.

Tennessee's advantage would be the fact it beat LSU and has less losses. It is tough call but I think the Florida State loss (especially if FSU drops more game) is the deciding factor that keeps LSU out.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

I get it but I never bought your recruiting is a guaranteed success argument. I think there is more to it and it is just a component. Ohio State has better recruiting rankings (even the rankings are suspect) but they had better success on the field with Tressel in some ways.

Ohio State's top 5 classes haven't translated to that much in last 8 years (at least in post season play). Clemson doesn't have top 5 classes every year but they have been far more successful than Ohio State in the playoffs. You can't say "weak ACC" because Clemson has won more in playoffs including 2 National Titles.

You also trash LSU but they have more playoff wins over the stretch of time you posted than Ohio State. (Granted it is 2 wins to 1 win advantage).

Where have I said it guarantees success? Nowhere. What I said is -- you aren't competing on a yearly basis with the teams consistently bringing in top 5 recruiting classes. You CAN have a year where you breakthrough with an all everything QB -- See Auburn w/ Cam Newton, see LSU w/ Joe Burrow, see FSU w/ Jameis Winston. Each one of them were the #1 pick in the NFL draft.

You aren't consistently competing for national titles unless you have the recruiting. You mention Clemson but they are a team that has been blessed with the recruiting and all-american QB's -- see DeShaun Watson who just signed a $250 million contract in the NFL and #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.

I swear -- it is like fans of some teams just refuse to look at reality. I'm a Michigan fan and I'm not foolish enough to think UM is going to just start dominating Ohio State, when each year they bring in much more talent.

 

[osubuckeye89]

I get it but I never bought your recruiting is a guaranteed success argument. I think there is more to it and it is just a component. Ohio State has better recruiting rankings (even the rankings are suspect) but they had better success on the field with Tressel in some ways.

Ohio State's top 5 classes haven't translated to that much in last 8 years (at least in post season play). Clemson doesn't have top 5 classes every year but they have been far more successful than Ohio State in the playoffs. You can't say "weak ACC" because Clemson has won more in playoffs including 2 National Titles.

You also trash LSU but they have more playoff wins over the stretch of time you posted than Ohio State. (Granted it is 2 wins to 1 win advantage).

Ohio State would not be a annual title contender these days if they were still recruiting at Tressel levels. Recruiting isnt assured success but the results dont lie, it does matter.

 

[Volbound1700]

Where have I said it guarantees success? Nowhere. What I said is -- you aren't competing on a yearly basis with the teams consistently bringing in top 5 recruiting classes. You CAN have a year where you breakthrough with an all everything QB -- See Auburn w/ Cam Newton, see LSU w/ Joe Burrow, see FSU w/ Jameis Winston. Each one of them were the #1 pick in the NFL draft.

You aren't consistently competing for national titles unless you have the recruiting. You mention Clemson but they are a team that has been blessed with the recruiting and all-american QB's -- see DeShaun Watson who just signed a $250 million contract in the NFL and #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.

I swear -- it is like fans of some teams just refuse to look at reality. I'm a Michigan fan and I'm not foolish enough to think UM is going to just start dominating Ohio State, when each year they bring in much more talent.

Clemson has been straight up competing at a high level for 5-6 years. Only the last two seasons have they experienced a drop off. They are the second strongest program after Alabama over last 10 years.

 

[Deep Creek]

I'm not sure 2014 is the best example of that though. If OSU didn't have the chance to stomp the shit out of a top 15 Wisconsin team in the B1G CCG, they wouldn't have gotten in. The Big 12 was more to blame for TCU getting screwed than the CFP since they were too slow to adopt a CCG.

No doubt the Big 12 was stupid, but that wasn't the point. My point was change the name in that 3 slot from TCU to Texas or Oklahoma and see if they do the same thing regardless of what tOSU did to WIsconsin.

 

[Collegefbfan]

Going off the LSU vs. Tennessee argument (which is likely a waste of time and premature as both would have to win out)

Here is what happens:

LSU would have beaten Georgia and lost to Tennessee

Tennessee would have beat LSU and lost to Georgia

Georgia would have beaten Tennessee and lost to LSU

So you are at the traditional 3-way tie situation.

Let's look at full schedule:

Georgia:

Quality wins: Oregon and Tennessee (possibly Florida as well if they win out but I am not going to consider Florida since all 3 beat them and it is a wash)

Tennessee:

Quality Wins: Alabama and LSU (possibly Pittsburgh if they win out and sneak into top 25)

LSU:

Quality Wins: Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia
Important Loss: FSU

After some thought, beating Ole Miss really helps LSU's case because that gives them a 3rd quality win. The irony is that Georgia probably has the weakest resume if you look at teams they play but let's be honest, they will be in and it really comes down to LSU vs. Tennessee.

Tennessee has the head-to-head and one less loss. Tennessee also played both LSU and Georgia on the road. LSU would NOT have a quality road win as Atlanta would be considered "Neutral". LSU has 3 QWs against Tennessee's 2 QWs. Tennessee's only loss was in difficult road environment. The key items that hurt LSU is losing that game to FSU and losing the head-to-head and not even being competitive. The key advantages of LSU would be more quality wins.

Tennessee's advantage would be the fact it beat LSU and has less losses. It is tough call but I think the Florida State loss (especially if FSU drops more game) is the deciding factor that keeps LSU out.

I am not splitting hairs on this scenario. A lot of it sounds fine. I want to know what the CFP is going to really "consider", what the CFP is going to put more "weight" on, and any talking out of both sides their mouth crap they come up with. If LSU wins out, they still have two losses. One was a serious beatdown at home, the other to a decent FSU. Will the CFP consider that this game was very early on? Or will time of game not matter? If so, didn't Georgia beat Oregon very early on (I know Oregon is out of the discussion, but just saying)?

Georgia beat Tennessee and Oregon, even their worst wins were against teams that have at least 4 wins. Tennessee beat LSU and Alabama. Their worst win came against a 1-9 Akron team. Tennessee (away) beat LSU badly, Georgia (home) beat Tennessee badly. Will the CFP consider this a wash?

I feel that Georgia beats LSU, but I bet the CFP never thought that it could be a 2 loss SEC champ in the mix.