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FSU Leaving the ACC?
- Thread starter Blackshirts BLVD
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Not sure but I would guess Clemson around 12% and UNC around 9-10%. UNC probably makes a lot in Basketball though and I know Basketball isn't Football but it is still money.
We might as well have an Institutional Transfer Portal now.
That's why I'd like to see the rest of the study the FSU AD is referencing. i.e. Wake, Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, Va Tech, etal.
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There might be some surprises. Someone posted data the other day that Syracuse is one of the biggest draws in the ACC. I didn't know that. Apparently Boston College is near the bottom.
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Technically you are 100% correct in everything you wrote.
I disagree that the SEC or the B1G wouldn't take them, however:
SEC Reasons:
- It wouldn't impact the other school's revenues due to how the network contracts are structured
- No way do they want the B1G in their territory with big-name schools
- Scheduling issues for Texas and OU will mathematically be solved by next year and doing away with divisions will help facilitate it
B1G Reasons:
- Both these schools would be the Big Bang that the B1G has been looking for
- Opens recruiting lanes in SEC territory
- Both schools would bring in the money to justify the additions
The GOR isn't really the new conference's issue as that belongs to the schools and they will have to work those out to even leave so it really isn't the conference's problem.
Hypothetically if the GOR could be broken the following ACC schools would find homes in either the SEC or B1G without much debate:
- Clemson
- FSU
- Virginia
- North Carolina
- Virginia Tech
- Notre Dame (technically not an ACC school but they would be in and would have no choice but to join someone)
Georgia Tech & Duke I feel like are also in the above group but not 100% confident.
Let's face it FSU and Clemson push this hard enough they might convince a few other schools to seek new homes also and at that point, it isn't out of the question the ACC fails and everyone gets out of the GOR anyway. I agree the SEC won't be actively looking for this to happen and would prefer time before it does but it the timeline accelerates they will act and won't just sit it out.
I could see a scenario where the SEC adds Clemson, FSU, UNC and either UVA or VT and the B1G adds ND, GT, UVA or(VT) and Duke.
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I don't see the SEC turning down FSU should they get out of the ACC.. I just don't see why ESPN would help FSU out of the ACC and bring them to the SEC anytime soon. The new CEO basically said that they aren't going to continue to spend recklessly.
Also.. I'm not too convinced that FSU and Clemson as a duo increase the media deal that much. However those two names would garner higher ratings and of course, home game sellouts.. Maybe each school in the conference would receive 3/4 million more? The real prize of the ACC is and always will be ND despite them not being an official member. Now they would bring in a significant bump
Also.. I'm not too convinced that FSU and Clemson as a duo increase the media deal that much. However those two names would garner higher ratings and of course, home game sellouts.. Maybe each school in the conference would receive 3/4 million more? The real prize of the ACC is and always will be ND despite them not being an official member. Now they would bring in a significant bump
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There is no way that ESPN is going to pay more money for the following reasons:
1. They don't have to and are hemorrhaging money anyway and so is their parent Disney
2. If they do nothing they have the rights locked up for 13 years.
3. If the ACC breaks up the chances of them getting at least half of the best teams' network rights are at about 90% so why pay more when you can steal just the best?
There isn't a viable scenario where ESPN agrees to pay more.
To my understanding the GOR could bring in some interesting wrinkles to the TV rights. If FSU / Clem leaves the ACC, ESPN would still owns the rights to their home games up until 2036 (unless they strike some type of deal to get out). In 2030 the BIG Ten renegotiates their TV contract, if they were to add ACC schools then I believe ESPN will still hold the rights to those teams home games and BIG may not get the full value out of those teams. Even then it may still be worth to adding FSU, Clem, etc for the reasons you mentioned
I can see SEC wanting to wait until 2036 to add teams but I can see the BIG Ten being aggressive and going after schools before 2036.
Interesting times to come
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I don’t know if you saw my post where I did the math on what it would potential cost to get out but it’s prohibitive.
To get out early you would basically need a group of teams to all go at once and void the GOR altogether. It’s a little early for that but I imagine the AD department at UNC is starting to contemplate the situation. You know Miami would bolt if they had a landing spot so it isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
Right now the divide is insurmountable but the SEC and B1G start picking up bigger bucks progressively over the next few years and then that divide is going to start exposing itself.
Let Mac retire and UNC try to find a new coach and get slapped with sticker shock. Things will get moving at that point.
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i think UNC and Duke would hold out to the very last possible moment.. the ACC was their conference.. I'm with you I don't see half the members leaving to break the GOR.. Only because I don't think half of the schools will be pick up a golden ticket that is the SEC or BiG
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I think when UNC ADs and Coaches see the B1G and SEC schools getting 100 million dollar checks each and they are ranking in 49 million their attitude will change dramatically.
Right now they can live with the spread but 3 years down the road they will grind their teeth thinking about it knowing they can make one phone call and get an invite. Clemson, FSU and UNC will all be on board in 4 years and once the momentum starts rats will be jumping ship if they can hit a life raft and the ACC will fold. The chain of events will start with those three, ND will get really quiet and anyone that can secure a spot will race to do so.
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A good friend of mine is a relatively large donor at UNC. Was talking to him last week ... he doesn't give a shit about Duke. They would still play them twice in hoops, and that is all that matters with that rivalry. UNC will not insist on a packaged deal with Duke.
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Here is the article I wrote for Rivals and posted here a while back:
hooplanation.com
Here is what I concluded:
SEC: will stay within their existing footprint, or states contiguous thereto.
22 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
Oklahoma State
One of Lousiville, Duke, UVa, or Kansas (that's my order of preference)
20 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
First team out: Oklahoma State
B1G: will have to create a west division for travel and non-football sports, but will also go after some of the ACC schools.
22 Teams:
Notre Dame
Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal or Colorado
UNC
One of Duke, UVa, Miami, or Kansas
20 Teams:
Notre Dame
Oregon
Washington
UNC
A lot of what constrains the B1G is the fact they have already committed to the west, and the fact that they have an academic profile they don't seem to want to waiver on - AAU schools that bring in big research dollars. That really "means more" to the B1G. If the B1G doesn't want to go out west more, then there is going to be a heck of a fight over the ACC teams like UNC, Miami, and UVa.
If this works out this way, the SEC will move ahead of the B1G by a decent but not daunting margin. The B1G will be fine with that as they count their research dollars.
College Football Expansion - Who is Next and Why
I wrote this about a week ago and had it published at Rivals. It's been up for a while there so I wanted to share this with this group. A couple of things: 1. Don't @Me with tldr ... don't care. It's long ... 3200 words. That's on purpose. I spent time on it because this type of thing...
hooplanation.com
Here is what I concluded:
SEC: will stay within their existing footprint, or states contiguous thereto.
22 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
Oklahoma State
One of Lousiville, Duke, UVa, or Kansas (that's my order of preference)
20 Teams:
Clemson
FSU
Miami
UNC
First team out: Oklahoma State
B1G: will have to create a west division for travel and non-football sports, but will also go after some of the ACC schools.
22 Teams:
Notre Dame
Oregon
Washington
Stanford
Cal or Colorado
UNC
One of Duke, UVa, Miami, or Kansas
20 Teams:
Notre Dame
Oregon
Washington
UNC
A lot of what constrains the B1G is the fact they have already committed to the west, and the fact that they have an academic profile they don't seem to want to waiver on - AAU schools that bring in big research dollars. That really "means more" to the B1G. If the B1G doesn't want to go out west more, then there is going to be a heck of a fight over the ACC teams like UNC, Miami, and UVa.
If this works out this way, the SEC will move ahead of the B1G by a decent but not daunting margin. The B1G will be fine with that as they count their research dollars.
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There is a reason that OU and UT did not come to the SEC when they announced it a few years ago - the GOR is ironclad. There is no getting out of it. Occam's Razor says that if UT and OU could have gotten out, they would have. They have the money, they have the lawyers. They couldn't or they would have.
The problem with the ACC is the length of their GOR. It is simply so long that the damages would be too high. And the SEC isn't getting involved until they are able to clear that hurdle. And the SEC doesn't want to get involved. For the reasons I stated before, 16 teams is perfect with a 3-6-6 scheduling format. Adding 4 more turns that upside down. Adding 6 more would actually be better (3-6-6-6), and I just don't see 6 teams that could deliver the value.
I'm not sure that it would not affect the revenues ... FSU and Clemson are well known, but FSU has had a tough 5-6 years, and Clemson has to show us they aren't on the decline. Just because we are seeing a pro-rata share of OU and TX, I am not sure they would do that for anyone. If the SEC said we want GaTech, EXPN isn't falling for that. Teams have to deliver value and FSU and Clemson barely do, or perhaps don't.
You talk about Clemson and FSU to the B1G. They simply don't fit the academic profile. They aren't AAU schools and that is a prerequisite. Moreover, they, like the SEC, aren't going to expand just to expand. They are getting billions in a manageable league. No reason to go 20 or 22 unless it brings in a lot more money. I don't see those teams doing that.
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We are on the same page with the GOR. It would have to be a Mass existing and the GOR be nullified for teams to leave early.
Where we differ is if these teams left and were clear of the GOR (that’s hypothetical) the SEC or B1G snap them up. Your reasons are good reasons but they wouldn’t stop the P2 from jumping on those teams.
I don’t see anything remotely happening for 3 years then things will heat up and teams like UNC will be seriously considering making a change. Until then it’s a lot of talk.
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Explain the value a team like UNC brings. Clemson and FSU have terrible TV numbers, barely top 20. They do have CFP appearances, but FSU was early on and not recent, and Clemson could have been a flash in the pan. Can the two of them get into the CFP playing an SEC schedule? UNC has none of that. They play in a small stadium, they don't have a large alumni base, they don't have 4+ million games unless playing another team that is the draw, and they are 36th in average viewers per game. They would have qualified in a 12 team CFP once in the last 12 years. They just don't have the value - which will come as a surprise to their arrogant fans - to demand a 100+ million share.
You see them as big names, but are they big enough? OU, TX, USC clearly. UCLA was brought along with USC. And everyone would take Notre Dame. The others ... I am not in any way convinced that they could pay their way. The SEC might just say, you guys work it out. We have a great deal going here and don't need any free riders.
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You and I both know that the B1G and the SEC would take UNC in a heartbeat. I know for a fact that the SEC has had backdoor discussions with UNC in the past because a former chancellor, Holden Thorp, has stated that publically.
FSU and Clemson don't pull numbers against WF, NC State, Maryland, GT or Boston College but give them a schedule that includes Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma and the ratings will be there consistently. Hell Oklahoma doesn't pull great numbers in the big 12 if we are honest.
Here are the top 15 schools in 2022:
Clemson and FSU both make that list. USC barely made it and UCLA hasn't sniffed that list in years.
Both schools would find a home almost immediately.
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You are saying exactly what I said months ago. Not sure what your point is.
The GOR is the impediment, and I am confident the SEC and the B1G are happy for that.
If they are available, we would see if the juice is worth the squeeze. But that won’t happen for 10+ years, thankfully.
It’s not the slam dunk you make it out to be, but if they decide it makes sense to expand, those are three of the teams.