FSU Leaving the ACC?

[Wild Turkey]

You are saying exactly what I said months ago. Not sure what your point is.

The GOR is the impediment, and I am confident the SEC and the B1G are happy for that.

If they are available, we would see if the juice is worth the squeeze. But that won’t happen for 10+ years, thankfully.

It’s not the slam dunk you make it out to be, but if they decide it makes sense to expand, those are three of the teams.

I think there is a 50/50 chance it happens near the 5 year mark and a group leaves the ACC together killing the GOR. That is the point where the revenue spread becomes debilitating from a competitive standpoint.

The juice is there and for the life of me I don't see how you don't realize it. Clemson and FSU both are pulling bigger numbers than Oklahoma. If the SEC popped for OU they will pop for Clemson and FSU.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think there is a 50/50 chance it happens near the 5 year mark and a group leaves the ACC together killing the GOR. That is the point where the revenue spread becomes debilitating from a competitive standpoint.

The juice is there and for the life of me I don't see how you don't realize it. Clemson and FSU both are pulling bigger numbers than Oklahoma. If the SEC popped for OU they will pop for Clemson and FSU.

You can see from my article that those would be the logical teams. The problem is you are comparing 2023 and 2033 numbers. We’ll see when that happens, if it happens. If teams are getting $120 million each in 2030+ the numbers get interesting.

At the end of the day I’ve never thought that expansion for the sake of expansion is a good idea. The whole idea of super conferences doesn’t make sense to me. Yes those teams wanting to leave the ACC makes sense. The SEC wanting them doesn’t make sense. The SEC is fine without them. More than fine.

Neither are pulling the total numbers that OU was pulling. The numbers are in my article.

 

[Volbound1700]

There is a reason that OU and UT did not come to the SEC when they announced it a few years ago - the GOR is ironclad. There is no getting out of it. Occam's Razor says that if UT and OU could have gotten out, they would have. They have the money, they have the lawyers. They couldn't or they would have.

The problem with the ACC is the length of their GOR. It is simply so long that the damages would be too high. And the SEC isn't getting involved until they are able to clear that hurdle. And the SEC doesn't want to get involved. For the reasons I stated before, 16 teams is perfect with a 3-6-6 scheduling format. Adding 4 more turns that upside down. Adding 6 more would actually be better (3-6-6-6), and I just don't see 6 teams that could deliver the value.

I'm not sure that it would not affect the revenues ... FSU and Clemson are well known, but FSU has had a tough 5-6 years, and Clemson has to show us they aren't on the decline. Just because we are seeing a pro-rata share of OU and TX, I am not sure they would do that for anyone. If the SEC said we want GaTech, EXPN isn't falling for that. Teams have to deliver value and FSU and Clemson barely do, or perhaps don't.

You talk about Clemson and FSU to the B1G. They simply don't fit the academic profile. They aren't AAU schools and that is a prerequisite. Moreover, they, like the SEC, aren't going to expand just to expand. They are getting billions in a manageable league. No reason to go 20 or 22 unless it brings in a lot more money. I don't see those teams doing that.

Out of curiosity, if FSU left and said they won't pay a dime with the GOR, how does the court/ESPN/others collect?

So FSU Account Department will not pay a check despite a court ruling. How is it enforced?

Do the Police raid the campus?

Do you garnish University wages (it is a public school)?

I am just curious on how a GOR can even be enforceable against a public educational institution if its board/president says they won't pay it.

Regarding the situation, I still think it is just Clemson and FSU throwing out threats (likely idle) to try to get more $$$.

There are some obscure contract theories such as market conditions/NIL that could possible give them an out or some contract relief to exit but that is a stretch and not something anyone should bank on.

I do agree with @Thiefery that UNC and Duke want to kept ACC alive for Basketball. I mean that is why a team like Louisville was added to the league when Maryland left versus West Virginia (who is more marketable). Louisville could do both football and basketball at a high level.

 

[Volbound1700]

You can see from my article that those would be the logical teams. The problem is you are comparing 2023 and 2033 numbers. We’ll see when that happens, if it happens. If teams are getting $120 million each in 2030+ the numbers get interesting.

At the end of the day I’ve never thought that expansion for the sake of expansion is a good idea. The whole idea of super conferences doesn’t make sense to me. Yes those teams wanting to leave the ACC makes sense. The SEC wanting them doesn’t make sense. The SEC is fine without them. More than fine.

Neither are pulling the total numbers that OU was pulling. The numbers are in my article.

I think FSU is the wild card with the SEC. The reason is that the B1G could get into the state of Florida (i.e. Michigan and Ohio State).

The only issue with your analyze is the recruiting ground/territory value. FSU is a chance for the B1G to get into Florida. One of the reason Texas left for the SEC was the A&M/SEC recruiting hit they were taking in Texas.

The reason the Pac12 wants SMU is they think it could give them maybe a small piece of Texas market but mainly to get recruiting footprint in Texas (even if it is 3*s).

 

[Volbound1700]

BTW, to put this situation in context, FSU currently stands to make less TV money then Central Florida. Let that sink in...

I still think the best fix for the ACC right now is to add teams. West Virginia is a team that would say "yes" and may move needle enough to at least open the contract up for discussion again. Notre Dame is a dream pickup and ACC really needs to do everything to get them in, even rename the whole league to the Notre Dame is the BEST Conference.

 

[Volbound1700]

@Deep Creek

I saw this and thought of you. I think this is the data from FSU. Looks like Clemson and FSU are top dogs by a pretty large margin. UNC not as high as people think.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

@Deep Creek

I saw this and thought of you. I think this is the data from FSU. Looks like Clemson and FSU are top dogs by a pretty large margin. UNC not as high as people think.

View attachment 98598

Which is exactly what I have been saying. FSU and Clemson are the only two teams that barely move the needle. UNC, UVA, VT are not close. But in 10 years that might not be the case.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I think FSU is the wild card with the SEC. The reason is that the B1G could get into the state of Florida (i.e. Michigan and Ohio State).

The only issue with your analyze is the recruiting ground/territory value. FSU is a chance for the B1G to get into Florida. One of the reason Texas left for the SEC was the A&M/SEC recruiting hit they were taking in Texas.

The reason the Pac12 wants SMU is they think it could give them maybe a small piece of Texas market but mainly to get recruiting footprint in Texas (even if it is 3*s).

The B1G has never taken a team that wasn’t AAU. Tallahassee isn’t where the Florida recruiting is. They’d be better going after Miami if they want recruiting.

 

[Volbound1700]

The B1G has never taken a team that wasn’t AAU. Tallahassee isn’t where the Florida recruiting is. They’d be better going after Miami if they want recruiting.

Panhandle actually has a lot of great recruits. Auburn traditionally picked a part that area until FSU and Bobby Bowden came around, then after FSU declined, Auburn picked that area again.

Miami is definitely an option for the B1G as well but Miami not having a big/loyal fanbase is a concern. That is the ONLY reason Miami is even behind FSU as Miami actually has a better history and profile.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Panhandle actually has a lot of great recruits. Auburn traditionally picked a part that area until FSU and Bobby Bowden came around, then after FSU declined, Auburn picked that area again.

Miami is definitely an option for the B1G as well but Miami not having a big/loyal fanbase is a concern. That is the ONLY reason Miami is even behind FSU as Miami actually has a better history and profile.

Sorry, not true.

I grew up in Florida, so I know the state well. There is very little in the panhandle. The depth for Florida high school talent is in south Florida, and the Lakeland region, Tampa/St. Pete (IMG is there). If you look at the current top 25 players in Florida in the 2024 class, only 2 are from the panhandle. 4 of the top 50. The power programs just aren't there.

What Auburn and FSU have done for years is pick off kids from south Georgia (FSU) and the Columbus Georgia area which are closer to FSU and Auburn than they are Athens.

Your position was that the B1G is going to break their AAU requirement to get into Florida recruiting. FSU doesn't make sense for that, and Miami is clearly the better choice.

 

[Thiefery]

BTW, to put this situation in context, FSU currently stands to make less TV money then Central Florida. Let that sink in...

I still think the best fix for the ACC right now is to add teams. West Virginia is a team that would say "yes" and may move needle enough to at least open the contract up for discussion again. Notre Dame is a dream pickup and ACC really needs to do everything to get them in, even rename the whole league to the Notre Dame is the BEST Conference.

they won't be making less than UCF.. the ACC despite the groaning of FSU..is still going to be making more money than if they were in the Big12 (in the NEW Big12 deal)

 

[Wild Turkey]

BTW, to put this situation in context, FSU currently stands to make less TV money then Central Florida. Let that sink in...

I still think the best fix for the ACC right now is to add teams. West Virginia is a team that would say "yes" and may move needle enough to at least open the contract up for discussion again. Notre Dame is a dream pickup and ACC really needs to do everything to get them in, even rename the whole league to the Notre Dame is the BEST Conference.

First UCF is not going to make more per FSU as I don’t know where you got those numbers.

Second there is zero reason for the ACC to expand as there aren’t any potential teams that move any kind of needle. West Virginia at best is a meh add and who are you going to take with them? It would be an excessive in subtraction by addition.

Notre Dame is the only name that would be a home run but the ACC has given them everything they want and they stay independent. Their new deals put them in SEC and B1G territory so there is zero incentive for them to do anything.

 

[Deep Creek]

@Deep Creek

I saw this and thought of you. I think this is the data from FSU. Looks like Clemson and FSU are top dogs by a pretty large margin. UNC not as high as people think.

View attachment 98598

Thanks. Yeah, I was looking for something like this. And I'm betting a lot of those numbers were generated for the "other 12": when they played FSU or Clem and would be even lower without those two. If this translates into who brings value to the party, it is obvious that it is those two. All that said, I can't see those "other 12" as willing to go to a revenue distribution model based on value added.

I'd like to see it for the other conferences as well.

 

[CoalTrain]

What about booting some ACC bottom feeders to free up more money for the desirables in that conference?

I don’t think we’ve seen that move yet, it’s been predicted some long term for even the SEC/BIG but the only case I can think of was the BigEast booting Temple several years ago But iirc that was for being cheap and not willing to invest enough to be a viable member ect. (Something of that nature, been awhile now).

PLUS: COLLEGE FOOTBALL; Temple Voted Out Of the Big East (Published 2001)

Temple University, lone football-only school in Big East, is voted out of league, effective June 20, 2002, by seven other schools (S)

www.nytimes.com

 

[TaikoTiger]

The B1G has never taken a team that wasn’t AAU. Tallahassee isn’t where the Florida recruiting is. They’d be better going after Miami if they want recruiting.

The exact location is irrelevant, the Big Ten / Fox just want the eyeballs from Florida and FSU gives you that over Miami.
This helps recruiting and more importantly overall viewership on Big Ten games / Fox

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

The exact location is irrelevant, the Big Ten / Fox just want the eyeballs from Florida and FSU gives you that over Miami.
This helps recruiting and more importantly overall viewership on Big Ten games / Fox

Eyeballs isn't what we were discussing. The point was specifically made that they wanted to get into Florida for recruiting. That is what I responded to. Recruiting doesn't get better because you play some games 8 hours from south Florida, or 4 hours from Tampa. It gets better when you are in the heart of the recruiting territory, IMO.

 

[TaikoTiger]

Eyeballs isn't what we were discussing. The point was specifically made that they wanted to get into Florida for recruiting. That is what I responded to. Recruiting doesn't get better because you play some games 8 hours from south Florida, or 4 hours from Tampa. It gets better when you are in the heart of the recruiting territory, IMO.

I get you're talking about recruiting. I'm saying for recruiting you want kids to tune into your games (Big Ten in this case) and FSU & UF are the big brands that will get ppl including potential recruits to tune no matter where in Florida

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

Out of curiosity, if FSU left and said they won't pay a dime with the GOR, how does the court/ESPN/others collect?

So FSU Account Department will not pay a check despite a court ruling. How is it enforced?

Do the Police raid the campus?

Do you garnish University wages (it is a public school)?

I am just curious on how a GOR can even be enforceable against a public educational institution if its board/president says they won't pay it.

Regarding the situation, I still think it is just Clemson and FSU throwing out threats (likely idle) to try to get more $$$.

There are some obscure contract theories such as market conditions/NIL that could possible give them an out or some contract relief to exit but that is a stretch and not something anyone should bank on.

I do agree with @Thiefery that UNC and Duke want to kept ACC alive for Basketball. I mean that is why a team like Louisville was added to the league when Maryland left versus West Virginia (who is more marketable). Louisville could do both football and basketball at a high level.

I’ve seen you make this argument before and it’s not legally correct. Universities are entities capable of being sued. And if they lose and fail to pay, you go after them like anyone else, but it’s easier. You simply start putting liens on all the buildings - I’d start with Sanford Stadium. Now they can’t do anything to it without your permission. Universities are sued all the time and pay up all the time.

 

[TaikoTiger]

Even then. I don't think the recruiting angle is that important.
Idk if I see Florida recruits going to Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc just because more ppl from FL are watching their games. Maybe Mich, OSU, PSU would grab an extra one or two

Big Ten / Fox going down south is mainly for money from viewership in that region

 

[Deep Creek]

What about booting some ACC bottom feeders to free up more money for the desirables in that conference?

I don’t think we’ve seen that move yet, it’s been predicted some long term for even the SEC/BIG but the only case I can think of was the BigEast booting Temple several years ago But iirc that was for being cheap and not willing to invest enough to be a viable member ect. (Something of that nature, been awhile now).

PLUS: COLLEGE FOOTBALL; Temple Voted Out Of the Big East (Published 2001)

Temple University, lone football-only school in Big East, is voted out of league, effective June 20, 2002, by seven other schools (S)

www.nytimes.com

I've said this for a long time. I always get the "but they're charter members, tradition, etc". Let's be real. A lot of those teams don't bring enough value to match their payment.