FSU Leaving the ACC?

[Wild Turkey]

Why 5 years ... that still leaves 8 years of GOR and media rights. That's still a quarter of a billion per team to get out. Who's paying that?

Nobody is paying it but that’s when the scheduled discrepancy hits its high point. There is going to be a slow build of frustration in those 5 years.

The ACC is NOT going to take your advice and make their league more appealing overall. The top teams are going to bitch & moan, talk about uneven revenue distribution and make everyone miserable.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Agreed, they would take certain schools for sure now but they aren’t taking 8 and ESPN has zero incentive to pay more for schools they are already paying on the cheap for. Not sure 5 years itll be affordable but things can change so who knows.

If the SEC adds teams they have to pay it’s in the contract. It’s not like they have veto power and it’s not like they are going to risk their relationship with the SEC.

I could see the SEC taking 4 and the B1G 3 + ND which isn’t enough so they will need to pull money and pay someone off.

It’s a long shot but by year 5 they are going to start getting creative.

 

[Volbound1700]

Why 5 years ... that still leaves 8 years of GOR and media rights. That's still a quarter of a billion per team to get out. Who's paying that?

I think he is alluding to they will start seriously looking 5 years ahead of time but won't leave then. I think 2 years early is feasible with the lower $$ in the buyout for ACC. It would still be almost 50 million though.

 

[Volbound1700]

If the SEC adds teams they have to pay it’s in the contract. It’s not like they have veto power and it’s not like they are going to risk their relationship with the SEC.

I could see the SEC taking 4 and the B1G 3 + ND which isn’t enough so they will need to pull money and pay someone off.

It’s a long shot but by year 5 they are going to start getting creative.

Out of curiosity, who would be the teams that each take?

 

[ralphiewvu]

If the SEC adds teams they have to pay it’s in the contract. It’s not like they have veto power and it’s not like they are going to risk their relationship with the SEC.

I could see the SEC taking 4 and the B1G 3 + ND which isn’t enough so they will need to pull money and pay someone off.

It’s a long shot but by year 5 they are going to start getting creative.

But that’s just it, nether needs the ACC teams right now. I’m also not fully convinced the B1G would take a few ACC schools that the SEC may like. Of course UNC and FSU are probably wanted by both but the rest may be there for the picking so why would ESPN/SEC rush themselves maybe even costing themselves some money until the GoR is over?

Im curious what does that contract say about expansion?

If they want the 8 to dissolve the GoR, the B1G at minimum would have to take 4. That’s 22, ND would make 23, does that mean they only grab 1 more on the west coast?

Yeah I just don’t see this happening until the GoR is through.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Out of curiosity, who would be the teams that each take?

I know you asked him but I could see:

B1G grabbing UNC, UVA and Ga Tech.
I see them trying for Florida state but them opting for the SEC.

SEC grabbing FSU, Clemson, NCState and Va Tech.

If they could get ESPN/SEC on board and pay as someone mentioned a Wake Forest stupid money to be 8th nay they could maybe get out a few years early.

 

[Volbound1700]

I know you asked him but I could see:

B1G grabbing UNC, UVA and Ga Tech.
I see them trying for Florida state but them opting for the SEC.

SEC grabbing FSU, Clemson, NCState and Va Tech.

If they could get ESPN/SEC on board and pay as someone mentioned a Wake Forest stupid money to be 8th nay they could maybe get out a few years early.

Here is where I am going to pull my inner @WhosYourDawggy and ask what the value of these teams would be for each conference?

I mean Georgia Tech is like the B1G stealing a slightly more popular version of Vanderbilt or Tulane, they live in the shadow of a stronger team in their own state.

Clemson, FSU, and UNC make some sense but I am not sure about the rest. Since Miami is 3rd in the ACC for viewership, I would also think they would be in the mix.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Out of curiosity, who would be the teams that each take?

This is my take and I’m not interested in debating it because by now I’m sick of this discussion.

I think they want Clemson, FSU and UNC but need a 4th for balance. Miami would make the most sense for 4th but I think they run into too much resistance especially from UF. So to balance it out I think it would be a UVA or VT but wouldn’t be shocked by a Duke.

I know everyone says there is no money in BBall, and I agree, but the SEC is the undisputed best in both football, baseball and a league with KY, UNC and Duke plus the elevated play by other teams like Bama, Tenn, Ark and Auburn would make it a great argument in basketball. I admit that is pure fantasy in my mind but would love to see it. It would be great to hate someone like Duke.

 

[Volbound1700]

This is my take and I’m not interested in debating it because by now I’m sick of this discussion.

I think they want Clemson, FSU and UNC but need a 4th for balance. Miami would make the most sense for 4th but I think they run into too much resistance especially from UF. So to balance it out I think it would be a UVA or VT but wouldn’t be shocked by a Duke.

I know everyone says there is no money in BBall, and I agree, but the SEC is the undisputed best in both football, baseball and a league with KY, UNC and Duke plus the elevated play by other teams like Bama, Tenn, Ark and Auburn would make it a great argument in basketball. I admit that is pure fantasy in my mind but would love to see it. It would be great to hate someone like Duke.

Possibly. There is money, it just isn't on the level of football.

So take NC State vs. UNC. NC State actually had higher TV ratings in recent analysis in Football. However, I would bank on the money UNC makes in Basketball as enough to put them over NC State in overall value.

Don't write off Basketball, but don't lean on it either. (If it mattered a lot, Kansas would be in the B1G or SEC right now). I guess think of it is a tie breaker.

 

[Wild Turkey]

But that’s just it, nether needs the ACC teams right now. I’m also not fully convinced the B1G would take a few ACC schools that the SEC may like. Of course UNC and FSU are probably wanted by both but the rest may be there for the picking so why would ESPN/SEC rush themselves maybe even costing themselves some money until the GoR is over?

Im curious what does that contract say about expansion?

If they want the 8 to dissolve the GoR, the B1G at minimum would have to take 4. That’s 22, ND would make 23, does that mean they only grab 1 more on the west coast?

Yeah I just don’t see this happening until the GoR is through.

The SEC won’t drive this and probably doesn’t want to be involved.

However if the ACC figures out a way to implode you know all of them will come knocking and the SEC cherry picks at that point.

I think the UNC fanbase and boosters would prefer the SEC by a high margin. Nobody from the South will be excited by playing Minn, Ind, Ill, Purdue, Rutgers, North Western, Iowa or Michigan State. But they will want to play South Carolina, KY, Georgia, Auburn and Tenn. I think the UNC vs SC could become a bigger deal in football than UNC vs NC State.

Even if the SEC takes Clemson and FSU then calls it a day that’s a good day.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Here is where I am going to pull my inner @WhosYourDawggy and ask what the value of these teams would be for each conference?

I mean Georgia Tech is like the B1G stealing a slightly more popular version of Vanderbilt or Tulane, they live in the shadow of a stronger team in their own state.

Clemson, FSU, and UNC make some sense but I am not sure about the rest. Since Miami is 3rd in the ACC for viewership, I would also think they would be in the mix.

A fair question and I was going to put Miami would be in the mix for the B1G too. Speaking of the B1G all 3 schools I mentioned are powerhouse academic institutions that are in new states with good locations. Grabbing Georgia Tech to have Ohio State and or Michigan play in Atlanta every other year isn’t out of the realm of crazy. UVA is in a solid area with a solid basketball program. Yes I know football is driving this. Also UNC is a no brainer.

For the SEC, Clemson and FSU are good adds that make sense. Va Tech and NCState are new states with the same kind of culture/following in football that the SEC has imo. But Miami could work too.

Just my 2 cents

 

[ralphiewvu]

The SEC won’t drive this and probably doesn’t want to be involved.

However if the ACC figures out a way to implode you know all of them will come knocking and the SEC cherry picks at that point.

I think the UNC fanbase and boosters would prefer the SEC by a high margin. Nobody from the South will be excited by playing Minn, Ind, Ill, Purdue, Rutgers, North Western, Iowa or Michigan State. But they will want to play South Carolina, KY, Georgia, Auburn and Tenn. I think the UNC vs SC could become a bigger deal in football than UNC vs NC State.

Even if the SEC takes Clemson and FSU then calls it a day that’s a good day.

There is no doubt the SEC isn’t driving this. Which is exactly why I see the GoR going the full life.

But I think once the B1G comes around and starts cherry picking certain schools, that’ll get the SEC be it the Network, purely defensive or just wanting the same amount of schools to accept adding some ACC schools.

 

[Wild Turkey]

There is no doubt the SEC isn’t driving this. Which is exactly why I see the GoR going the full life.

But I think once the B1G comes around and starts cherry picking certain schools, that’ll get the SEC be it the Network, purely defensive or just wanting the same amount of schools to accept adding some ACC schools.

Look if the ACC folds there are teams the SEC will want. They just actively won’t be seeking it.

I do think a major issue is that both FSU and Clemson might be shells of themselves if they go a decade at half revenue vs SEC/B1G. That’s an eternity in an arms race, NIL and recruiting budget worlds.

Things are going to get desperate IMO.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Look if the ACC folds there are teams the SEC will want. They just actively won’t be seeking it.

I do think a major issue is that both FSU and Clemson might be shells of themselves if they go a decade at half revenue vs SEC/B1G. That’s an eternity in an arms race, NIL and recruiting budget worlds.

Things are going to get desperate IMO.

I have stated this second sentence as exactly why that GoR will last.

And you absolutely could be right that going 13 years at that huge disparity could severely damage FSU and Clemson’s football profile.

But short of the B1G extending a hand to 8 ACC teams(which won’t happen), there is nothing that likely will be done until at best 2034. And you guys could be right, by then it may not be worth adding them at all.

And how the hell are you sick of this discussion? It’s the off season Bruce!

 

[CorpRebel]

 

[rfjeff9]

B1G isn't adding any school that doesn't have AAU standing unless it's ND. So there is no way that FSU or Clemson get a second look. Duke UVA, UNC, GT, and Miami would be the only targets from the ACC. They all have a chance for an invite, but not for 8-9 years.

And any team can change their fortunes in that amount if time (see Clemson). I could see the right coach landing at one of these to bring wins and get the fans more interested and increase their stock in the eyes of B1G and SEC to move the needle. After all, 10 years ago nobody would have included Clemson in this SEC expansion discussion. Now they are the knee jerk first school anyone thinks about. Not saying these 5 schools above will be winning a natty, but I DO remember when UVA was good and held their own against anybody and had a better national following.

 

[Volbound1700]

B1G isn't adding any school that doesn't have AAU standing unless it's ND. So there is no way that FSU or Clemson get a second look. Duke UVA, UNC, GT, and Miami would be the only targets from the ACC. They all have a chance for an invite, but not for 8-9 years.

And any team can change their fortunes in that amount if time (see Clemson). I could see the right coach landing at one of these to bring wins and get the fans more interested and increase their stock in the eyes of B1G and SEC to move the needle. After all, 10 years ago nobody would have included Clemson in this SEC expansion discussion. Now they are the knee jerk first school anyone thinks about. Not saying these 5 schools above will be winning a natty, but I DO remember when UVA was good and held their own against anybody and had a better national following.

I do think the AAU is more of a preference than a requirement. Nebraska doesn't have AAU and I am not sure if Notre Dame has it. However, I do see Clemson and FSU as more of an option for the SEC.

Regarding brands, you are correct. Georgia Tech was considered a top program in the 1990s and was on par with UGA. They have fallen off. Virginia has had moments but nothing like Clemson and FSU. UVA would be in the bottom half of ACC historically in football (even Pittsburgh and Syracuse would be ahead of them).

You can't take away the multiple National Titles won at Clemson and FSU or their larger stadiums that they usually fill. Georgia Tech is one that could change the narrative. Virginia Tech is another one because they have a lot of potential and where there in the early 2000s. Miami is another one as well. They are still in the conversation but if they get to where they were in the 1980s or 2001-2004 timeframe, they could look very attractive.

EDIT: Tennessee is a great example. We were ~15-20 range, depending on metric, with regard to brand performance and ratings up until 2021. After 2021 and 2022, we are around ~5th-7th range. Winning helps.

 

[Red_Alert]

I do think the AAU is more of a preference than a requirement. Nebraska doesn't have AAU and I am not sure if Notre Dame has it. However, I do see Clemson and FSU as more of an option for the SEC.

Regarding brands, you are correct. Georgia Tech was considered a top program in the 1990s and was on par with UGA. They have fallen off. Virginia has had moments but nothing like Clemson and FSU. UVA would be in the bottom half of ACC historically in football (even Pittsburgh and Syracuse would be ahead of them).

You can't take away the multiple National Titles won at Clemson and FSU or their larger stadiums that they usually fill. Georgia Tech is one that could change the narrative. Virginia Tech is another one because they have a lot of potential and where there in the early 2000s. Miami is another one as well. They are still in the conversation but if they get to where they were in the 1980s or 2001-2004 timeframe, they could look very attractive.

EDIT: Tennessee is a great example. We were ~15-20 range, depending on metric, with regard to brand performance and ratings up until 2021. After 2021 and 2022, we are around ~5th-7th range. Winning helps.

Nebraska was AAU when they joined the Big 10.

They lost AAU status when the AAU changed their requirements in that 'research departments needed to be located "on campus".

The University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) is a leading medical research center, but is located in Omaha.

 

[rfjeff9]

With respect to AAU, Nebraska had AAU when they joined the B1G and later lost it. And ND is in a separate category. Clemson and FSU I think are not going to move that needle unless they get AAU accreditation. It's important enough to them that for at least B1G, accredation matters.

But that's kinda my point - who is to say that the planets align for Miami again and they finally ARE back and win a couple natty. Suddenly it's Miami and not FSU that everyone is talking about joining SEC if a Florida team is considered at all.

We agree. I'm just throwing it out there that if these schools can change their fortunes by the time GOR no longer matters, it's believable that two entirely different schools besides Clemson and FSU are considered for SEC and B1G over whats being discussed today. For that matter, if Clemson did get AAU then perhaps B1G comes calling.

We will see in another decade or so.

 

[Volbound1700]

With respect to AAU, Nebraska had AAU when they joined the B1G and later lost it. And ND is in a separate category. Clemson and FSU I think are not going to move that needle unless they get AAU accreditation. It's important enough to them that for at least B1G, accredation matters.

But that's kinda my point - who is to say that the planets align for Miami again and they finally ARE back and win a couple natty. Suddenly it's Miami and not FSU that everyone is talking about joining SEC if a Florida team is considered at all.

We agree. I'm just throwing it out there that if these schools can change their fortunes by the time GOR no longer matters, it's believable that two entirely different schools besides Clemson and FSU are considered for SEC and B1G over whats being discussed today. For that matter, if Clemson did get AAU then perhaps B1G comes calling.

We will see in another decade or so.

Agree. My point is that I don't think there are hard stop categories.

I don't think there is a set TV money, an Academic preference, attendance preference, geographical limitation, etc. They are all MAJOR factors but I think it ultimately comes down to votes for each case.

If Clemson and FSU approached the B1G hard, I can almost guarantee you they get views even without AAU. There might be detractors in the B1G with it but both schools bring a new market with sizable fan bases (right now).

However, the AAU argument is why I think Cal-Stanford stand a chance. They are academic powerhouses that solve the West Coast travel issues and bring a new market even though they don't meet the 4 million (or even 3 million) viewership requirement.