Full NFL Standings Predictions

[DraftNerd]

Every year I have worked to pour through an upcoming schedule, reflect for roster changes, etc and come out with a forecasted standings. Getting better at it every year....had a win percentage (by game) of high 50% last year. Not putting money on it....just trying to improve at prognostication.

Sharing our here so its recorded. Anyone else do the same and want to share?

 

[Lance Uppercut]

i got NE at 10-6 or 11-5

division, again

seattle at 7-9? yikes

 

[DraftNerd]

i got NE at 10-6 or 11-5

division, again

seattle at 7-9? yikes

Yeah. Honestly they are a wild card.

I use a data driven methodology that’s not super sound but gets me close on most. It basically takes ratings for Rushing/Passing O and D for each team last year and puts them up head to head. There is a little smoothing that goes on and slight (very slight this year) reflection for home team.

Seattle spit out at 7-9. I’m not sold on that. I could see them anywhere in the 9-7 to 11-5 range easy.

But I’ll stick to the formula approach as I can glean thing like injuries and all of that as the year goes on.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Yeah. Honestly they are a wild card.

I use a data driven methodology that’s not super sound but gets me close on most. It basically takes ratings for Rushing/Passing O and D for each team last year and puts them up head to head. There is a little smoothing that goes on and slight (very slight this year) reflection for home team.

Seattle spit out at 7-9. I’m not sold on that. I could see them anywhere in the 9-7 to 11-5 range easy.

But I’ll stick to the formula approach as I can glean thing like injuries and all of that as the year goes on.

whats the short n skinny on methodlogy?

 

[DraftNerd]

whats the short n skinny on methodlogy?

Grabbed a ranking from somewhere online (maybe Numberfire) showing how efficient (I think it was efficient) every team was on passing and rushing, offense and defense last year. Matched those up on every game this year and tried to smooth it some with how much better or worse I feel each team got in the offseason.

Mostly data driven, but some feel to it too. I believe I have some misses (like Seattle, also don’t like Miami at one win. I think they are 4-6) but happy enough with the data to share it up.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Grabbed a ranking from somewhere online (maybe Numberfire) showing how efficient (I think it was efficient) every team was on passing and rushing, offense and defense last year. Matched those up on every game this year and tried to smooth it some with how much better or worse I feel each team got in the offseason.

Mostly data driven, but some feel to it too. I believe I have some misses (like Seattle, also don’t like Miami at one win. I think they are 4-6) but happy enough with the data to share it up.

i like it

 

[DJ Fieri]

4-12? I think we're going 8-8, maybe 9-7.

 

[DraftNerd]

4-12? I think we're going 8-8, maybe 9-7.

I do as well. I REALLY leaned on data to build it out and as little feel as possible. This is strictly what data shows from last year in match ups for this year, with just a dash of feel.

LV could use more feel....I truly see them 7-9 to 9-7

 

[Who am i]

I do as well. I REALLY leaned on data to build it out and as little feel as possible. This is strictly what data shows from last year in match ups for this year, with just a dash of feel.

LV could use more feel....I truly see them 7-9 to 9-7

Yah. That is were I have them

 

[Who am i]

I usually start with the AFC but for a change. Let's start with the NFC

East

Dallas 10-6(4) ( wins on a tie Breaker)
Philadelphia 10-6(7) ( wins a tiebreaker vs Minnesota but loses it to Dallas and Arizona)
Washington 6-10
Giants 4-12

North

Green Bay 11-5 (3)
Vikings 10-6( Loses tiebreakers to Arizona and Philadelphia)
Detroit 6-10
Chicago 2-14 (1st pick)

South

New Orleans 13-3(1)
Tampa Bay 12-4(5)
Carolina 5-11
Atlanta 3-13

West

Seattle 12-4(2)
Arizona 10-6 (6) ( wins tiebreakers against Philadelphia and Minnesota)
San Francisco 8-8
Rams 6-10

AFC

East

Buffalo 11-5 (3)
Miami 10-6 (6)
New England 7-9
Jets 4-12

North

Baltimore 12-4(2)
Cleveland 9-7 (7)
Pittsburgh 8-8
Cincinnati 5-11

South

Tennessee 9-7(4)
Indianapolis 8-8
Houston 5-11
Jacksonville 4-12

West

Kansas City 13-3(1)
Denver 11-5(5)
Las Vegas 7-9
Chargers 5-11

Playoffs

Wild Card

Denver 37 Tennessee 20
Green Bay 45 Arizona 13
Seattle 27 Philadelphia 13
Baltimore 38 Cleveland 10
Tampa Bay 37 Dallas 17
Buffalo 24 Miami 17

Divisional

Buffalo 27 Baltimore 20
New Orleans 45 Tampa Bay 38
Seattle 30 Green Bay 24 (Wilson 8 yard pass to Parkinson for GWTD with :15 left)
Kansas City 48 Denver 0

Championship weekend

Kansas city 51 Buffalo 17
Seattle 33 New Orleans 30 (Wilson 15 yard pass to Metcalf for GWTD with :28 left)

Super Bowl

Seattle 27 Kansas City 20

OROTY: Tua
DROTY: Isaiah Simmons Arizona
MVP: Brees
Superbowl MVP: Russell Wilson