If You Were Hoping For CFP Expansion You’re Going To Have To Wait A Few Years

[PeoplesChicken]

Typical boring response. They’ve done more than most in the last 30 years and particularly in the last 4. Why is it they’re the only team that’s judged by winning national titles?

There’s nothing preferential about it. In order to even be considered for the playoffs they have to be undefeated most years. In 2020 the only reason they got in was their only loss was to a team they beat in the regular season. In the most proposals for an expanded 12 team playoff they wouldn’t get a bye the way P5 conference champions would, even if they had a better record.

Same shit during the BCS era. Their so-called preferential treatment required turn to be ranked in the top 8 to get an automatic BCS berth. There were several conference champions that didn’t have that obligation.

For all the complaining people do about the system to turn around and give even more power to those responsible for it doesn’t make sense.

You want to talk about rankings? That's laughable. Again that is preferential treatment.

ND's schedule typically has more cupcakes than anyone

Fuck outta here with that shit

 

[jjc2009]

You want to talk about rankings? That's laughable. Again that is preferential treatment.

ND's schedule typically has more cupcakes than anyone

Fuck outta here with that shit

Lol. You really are hitting all the tropes.

meanwhile back in the real world

 

[Boise4Life]

Depends on what you mean by "number" - 4 team generates $250 million. 12 teams will generate $500 million. I am thinking the number $500 million is preferred by the stakeholders. FYI, I don't know the exact numbers, but the difference is a quarter of a billion.

I am curious ... how is the season more meaningful when 120 or so of the 132 teams are eliminated from the CFP before the season even starts, and the minute 99.9% of the teams lose their first game, even if it's their only loss, they are basically eliminated. Seems to me that from a CFP perspective, the season is meaningless to 98% of the teams from the get-go.

120 of the 132 teams are eliminated before the season starts? No way that’s even close to an accurate statement. Any Power 5 team that runs the table is in period and even a one loss Power 5 is still in consideration if they played a tough enough schedule. Hell, Cincinnati is a Group of 5 team who didn’t play anybody outside of Notre Dame and maaaaaybe Houston (a stretch) and they got in. Sorry but I call bullshit on that comment. We’ll have to agree to disagree there.

 

[Blackshirts BLVD]

The cfp should be held after bowl games and a new set of rankings come out (from the bowl game results). 1 extra game, stfu. Only way to keep bowl games relevant and anywhere close to mattering.

 

[Innermind]

Four is good.

I don't want to see college football become what almost every other sport has become by diminishing the regular season due to having too many teams in their playoff systems. And I don't want to see a lot of blowout playoff games.

Way too many bad decisions in this county are made because those decisions are based upon increasing the size of wallets. Screw the greedy philosophy of more playoff games = more money.


Moreover...

I would like to see the group of 5, including independents get their own playoff utilizing existing Bowls. I would love to see teams such as the Service Academies, App. State, Coastal Carolina, Toledo, Northern Illinois, San Diego State, Boise State, Marshall, etc. have legitimate/realistic national title chances every year.


And...

I wouldn't mind seeing the top 18 or 20 big money elite college programs break off separately in football only to form their own elite division & football playoffs.


.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

120 of the 132 teams are eliminated before the season starts? No way that’s even close to an accurate statement. Any Power 5 team that runs the table is in period and even a one loss Power 5 is still in consideration if they played a tough enough schedule. Hell, Cincinnati is a Group of 5 team who didn’t play anybody outside of Notre Dame and maaaaaybe Houston (a stretch) and they got in. Sorry but I call bullshit on that comment. We’ll have to agree to disagree there.

Run the numbers. This isn't rocket surgery ... your team, as an example, in a 4 team CFP has a 0% chance. Even if you run the table, you aren't getting in. So we can add all the G5 into that. That's about 65 teams who aren't in before the season starts. You point at Cincy, but that is the exception that doesn't prove anything. We know that a 2 loss P5 team has never gotten into the 4 team CFP. On average, there are about 5 teams with 1 loss or better - I checked. Everyone else is eliminated with their second loss. That means in the last week you have about 10 P5 teams fighting to stay at 1 loss or less.

You can disagree all you want, those are the numbers. The minute a team has their second loss, they are out. I just looked in the second to last week, on average 7 teams have 1 or less loss. That's it. I could keep going back if you want, but with the G5 eliminated before the season starts, and most teams eliminated in the first half of the season, if you measure a meaningful season as one in which you are in the hunt for a CFP NC, there aren't many meaningful games at all.

To me, the regular season is more meaningful if more teams are in the hunt for longer. If you go to a 12 team CFP where a Conf Championship gets you in, and you can get 2 losses, even in the last few weeks there are about 2 dozen teams that have a chance.
We know that at least 12-14 have a chance in the last week if they can win their championship. And, because there is more room for a loss, the top teams are scheduling OOC way more aggressively. That's great for CFB. We have a 4 year run where we play 3 P5 teams, with 1 being Tech, and 2 being really good teams. For example, in one year we are scheduled to play tOSU and Clemson OOC in the same year. That isn't happening with a 4 team CFP.

 

[Deep Creek]

I would like to see the group of 5, including independents get their own playoff utilizing existing Bowls. I would love to see teams such as the Service Academies, App. State, Coastal Carolina, Toledo, Northern Illinois, San Diego State, Boise State, Marshall, etc. have legitimate/realistic national title chances every year.

Me too...with one exception. I don't give a shit about the bowls. Fuck 'em and feed 'em rocks. I'd rather them have the playoff games at home sites.

I wouldn't mind seeing the top 18 or 20 big money elite college programs break off separately in football only to form their own elite division & football playoffs.

I agree with this one too. Who do you think those 18-20 would be?

 

[Deep Creek]

To me, the regular season is more meaningful if more teams are in the hunt for longer.

I don't understand why some people don't understand this. The further you go into the season with more games that impact the playoffs, the more edge of your seat it gets IMO. And even outside your own conference. The results of games outside your own conference can have an impact on your own conference teams getting in. It is that way to a lesser extent now....but usually only in the CCG results.

 

[outofyourmind]

I don't understand why some people don't understand this. The further you go into the season with more games that impact the playoffs, the more edge of your seat it gets IMO

This is how I'm thinking.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

I don't understand why some people don't understand this. The further you go into the season with more games that impact the playoffs, the more edge of your seat it gets IMO. And even outside your own conference. The results of games outside your own conference can have an impact on your own conference teams getting in. It is that way to a lesser extent now....but usually only in the CCG results.

It always seemed so obvious to me.

First, weeks 0 and 1 have been great in recent years with OOC games. You are now going to get weeks 0-3 loaded with high end OOC games. That alone makes CFB way better. I can't wait to go to UCLA, tOSU, FSU. OU and TX are also on our OOC schedule, but those will now be IC games.

Then, the last 4 weeks are going to be great with about 20-30 teams still fighting to see if they can get to the CC game, or get in the top 12.

I live in the Raleigh area which is a great example - for Duke it doesn't change a thing. But for UNC and NCState, those 2 teams will now likely get into the CFP a couple times per decade. That's a big deal for them. Think of all the other teams that will now get to go to the CFP that really didn't have a shot - Iowa, Wisky, PSU, FSU, Miami, NCSU, Pitt, Wake, Baylor, OkSU, TCU, UCLA, Oregon, Utah, etc.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Lol. You really are hitting all the tropes.

meanwhile back in the real world

I love listening to Notre Dame fans talk -- they are even less relevant than Michigan in the national landscape with their last title being in 1988.

I have a brother that is a ND season ticket holder -- it is great listening to him say next year is the year for the last 30+ years. That's why CFB is so great -- the fans are so die hard, they refuse to accept reality.

 

[7samurai13]

I love listening to Notre Dame fans talk -- they are even less relevant than Michigan in the national landscape with their last title being in 1988.

I have a brother that is a ND season ticket holder -- it is great listening to him say next year is the year for the last 30+ years. That's why CFB is so great -- the fans are so die hard, they refuse to accept reality.

Notre Dame has had playoff appearances and a BCS title game and has as many conference championship game wins as Michigan and isn’t even in a conference. They are significantly more relevant than Michigan.

 

[jjc2009]

View attachment 62415
Notre Dame has had playoff appearances and a BCS title game and has as many conference championship game wins as Michigan and isn’t even in a conference. They are significantly more relevant than Michigan.

 

[jjc2009]

I love listening to Notre Dame fans talk -- they are even less relevant than Michigan in the national landscape with their last title being in 1988.

I have a brother that is a ND season ticket holder -- it is great listening to him say next year is the year for the last 30+ years. That's why CFB is so great -- the fans are so die hard, they refuse to accept reality.

Much like your buddy there you can’t really respond to the data points so you Trot out the sane boring tropes.

 

[TaikoTiger]

Run the numbers. This isn't rocket surgery ... your team, as an example, in a 4 team CFP has a 0% chance. Even if you run the table, you aren't getting in. So we can add all the G5 into that. That's about 65 teams who aren't in before the season starts. You point at Cincy, but that is the exception that doesn't prove anything. We know that a 2 loss P5 team has never gotten into the 4 team CFP. On average, there are about 5 teams with 1 loss or better - I checked. Everyone else is eliminated with their second loss. That means in the last week you have about 10 P5 teams fighting to stay at 1 loss or less.

You can disagree all you want, those are the numbers. The minute a team has their second loss, they are out. I just looked in the second to last week, on average 7 teams have 1 or less loss. That's it. I could keep going back if you want, but with the G5 eliminated before the season starts, and most teams eliminated in the first half of the season, if you measure a meaningful season as one in which you are in the hunt for a CFP NC, there aren't many meaningful games at all.

To me, the regular season is more meaningful if more teams are in the hunt for longer. If you go to a 12 team CFP where a Conf Championship gets you in, and you can get 2 losses, even in the last few weeks there are about 2 dozen teams that have a chance.
We know that at least 12-14 have a chance in the last week if they can win their championship. And, because there is more room for a loss, the top teams are scheduling OOC way more aggressively. That's great for CFB. We have a 4 year run where we play 3 P5 teams, with 1 being Tech, and 2 being really good teams. For example, in one year we are scheduled to play tOSU and Clemson OOC in the same year. That isn't happening with a 4 team CFP.

If it's all about keeping more teams "in the hunt" longer then why stop at 12 teams? What makes 12 teams the perfect and not 4, 8, 16, 32, etc? What threshold do we want in CFB to say you're worthy of a playoff berth? In the NFL, NBA, CBB, they are scenerios where a non-auto qualifying team can get in with almost a .500 record, do people want the same in CFB?

 

[TaikoTiger]

View attachment 62415
Notre Dame has had playoff appearances and a BCS title game and has as many conference championship game wins as Michigan and isn’t even in a conference. They are significantly more relevant than Michigan.

I think you're forgetting the '97 Championship

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

If it's all about keeping more teams "in the hunt" longer then why stop at 12 teams? What makes 12 teams the perfect and not 4, 8, 16, 32, etc? What threshold do we want in CFB to say you're worthy of a playoff berth? In the NFL, NBA, CBB, they are scenerios where a non-auto qualifying team can get in with almost a .500 record, do people want the same in CFB?

Do you doubt that is what it is about? I mean, more money is no. 1, we can all agree on that. In the short term it's not to make it more competitive, although in the longer term it is.

Here are quick pros and cons of the numbers:

4 - good at getting the best 4, but kind of dumb when you have 5 P5, and 5 G5 conferences.
8 - allows auto-qualifiers (AQs) which is good for the more teams in longer reason, but with just 2 at-large teams (1 if you realize ND will get in most years), that's a no go for the SEC and B1G. Also, no byes which might give an at large team that didn't play in a Conf Championship an advantage.
12 - manageable number of games, first round byes to protect your best 4 teams, typically will only add one more game.
16 - has the problem that non-CC participants will have an edge over those that play CCs due to no byes. You can argue that top 12 means 2 loss teams, while 16 would get 3 loss teams in, and no one wants that.
Any bigger is not manageable and adds too many games.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

View attachment 62415
Notre Dame has had playoff appearances and a BCS title game and has as many conference championship game wins as Michigan and isn’t even in a conference. They are significantly more relevant than Michigan.

They haven't won a title since 1988. Getting to the CFP by default, as they don't play in a conference and getting their ass handed to them isn't an accomplishment, just like it isn't an accomplishment for UM.

UM and ND have the same ceiling right now. A chance to get the CFP to be tee'd up by whoever the #1 or #2 is in the country, as neither team is even remotely close to as talented as the top 3-4 teams.

 

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Much like your buddy there you can’t really respond to the data points so you Trot out the sane boring tropes.

I'm not trotting anything out. ND is in the exact same boat as UM. The same boat as OU. I'd include Nebraska in the boat, but they are in the worst shape of all the Blue Blood programs, as they have zero talent in state or surrounding them.

ND may win a championship again if the stars aligned, just like UM may and OU may, but it'd take every bounce to go their way, every call to go to their way, etc. and they have no chance in the current landscape of CFB to be a consistent national power.

It is like people refuse to accept reality. Is it just a coincidence the last title for ND was 1988, the last one for UM was 1997, the last for OU was 2000? If you aren't pulling in elite recruiting classes every year, as in top 10, with top 5 classes -- you aren't winning a national title. If you aren't signing 2 or 3 five star recruits each class -- you aren't winning a title.

The days of signing a top 20 class and building up 3 star guys into elite players are long gone, as these high school kids now have strength coaches in HS, they have position coaches, position camps, national camps, etc. etc. So if you aren't pulling in those elite recruits -- you are fighting at uphill battle you aren't going to win.

You may get an invite to the dance -- but you are simply getting led to the slaughter, as what has been the closest game for ND in the CFP or a national title game since 1988? Tell me the average loss of the games ND has played in the NC or CFP appearances since 1988? I think the closest game was a 17 point loss. You had 28 point losses, a 27 point loss.

How about this -- since you are about data -- give me the data that shows ND is relevant and a NC is around the corner for them?

 

[OlyDuck]

Do you doubt that is what it is about? I mean, more money is no. 1, we can all agree on that. In the short term it's not to make it more competitive, although in the longer term it is.

Here are quick pros and cons of the numbers:

4 - good at getting the best 4, but kind of dumb when you have 5 P5, and 5 G5 conferences.
8 - allows auto-qualifiers (AQs) which is good for the more teams in longer reason, but with just 2 at-large teams (1 if you realize ND will get in most years), that's a no go for the SEC and B1G. Also, no byes which might give an at large team that didn't play in a Conf Championship an advantage.
12 - manageable number of games, first round byes to protect your best 4 teams, typically will only add one more game.
16 - has the problem that non-CC participants will have an edge over those that play CCs due to no byes. You can argue that top 12 means 2 loss teams, while 16 would get 3 loss teams in, and no one wants that.
Any bigger is not manageable and adds too many games.

even at 12 you could have had some 3 loss teams in tho