I'm calling it.

Peter Gozintite

Peter Gozintite

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I hope you waited to buy, or are still prepared to wait a little longer. I have said it before, that I am always the first one hit by the real estate fluctuations. some things that I have observed from the previous market crash, and how it relates to this one.

1st, in Vegas, when the market is strong, you only see "Open Houses" when a few rare seller's wont come down off ridiculous prices, and the listing agents will hold them. I am seeing them everywhere, and even on week days right now. clear sign to me that some prices are dropping, and no one wants to sell for less than their neighbor did a month or two ago.

2nd, me being the first affected, directly due to the fact that I work for property buyers specifically, and I have been up and down quite a bit, but now, the last 3 weeks, I have been SLOW. 2 to 3 inspections a few weeks ago, 2 inspections all last week, and one so far this week. I am going to be doing some contractor type work for the next year or so I think.

3rd, even though the last crash was not the same type, or for the same reasons, real estate has no chance but to be affected negatively by interest rates going up. they are climbing, and will continue to climb, in my estimation. its going to take some time for things to bottom out, but I see anywhere from a 20 to 40 percent drop in home values coming. I have a good friend that is one of my best agents. he went to school and got a degree in finance and economics. He is also terrified right now. we both haver similar situations, where our wives also do pretty well, so if we hit the skids, we don't lose everything. We have been talking about this coming for a while.

Everything I read that has a positive spin on it, seems to be completely out of touch with what is actually going on, and is based on frivolous speculation. I know a guy that owns a big mortgage company, and he always putting some positive bullshit out there about the market being strong. I think he has to believe the shit to sell it. I also think he is fully extended on his income, even though its massive compared to mine, and if he takes an income hit, he loses everything, again, like he did the last time.
 
Its not good and its not going to be good for a while. Its a bubble that was going to pop and everyone should have known that. I considered 6 months ago to sell and rent for a year but am afraid rents won't follow the trend. Its very scary on the horizon.
 
Peter Gozintite said:
and he always putting some positive bullshit out there about the market being strong. I think he has to believe the shit to sell it. I also think he is fully extended on his income, even though its massive compared to mine, and if he takes an income hit, he loses everything, again, like he did the last time.
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I see a direct parallel between this and @HammerDown hawking Bitcoin. Ironic.
 
If you are thinking of selling in the next year, do it now. Get out before prices settle back to where they should be, at least in the DFW area.
 
Peter Gozintite said:
I hope you waited to buy, or are still prepared to wait a little longer. I have said it before, that I am always the first one hit by the real estate fluctuations. some things that I have observed from the previous market crash, and how it relates to this one.

1st, in Vegas, when the market is strong, you only see "Open Houses" when a few rare seller's wont come down off ridiculous prices, and the listing agents will hold them. I am seeing them everywhere, and even on week days right now. clear sign to me that some prices are dropping, and no one wants to sell for less than their neighbor did a month or two ago.

2nd, me being the first affected, directly due to the fact that I work for property buyers specifically, and I have been up and down quite a bit, but now, the last 3 weeks, I have been SLOW. 2 to 3 inspections a few weeks ago, 2 inspections all last week, and one so far this week. I am going to be doing some contractor type work for the next year or so I think.

3rd, even though the last crash was not the same type, or for the same reasons, real estate has no chance but to be affected negatively by interest rates going up. they are climbing, and will continue to climb, in my estimation. its going to take some time for things to bottom out, but I see anywhere from a 20 to 40 percent drop in home values coming. I have a good friend that is one of my best agents. he went to school and got a degree in finance and economics. He is also terrified right now. we both haver similar situations, where our wives also do pretty well, so if we hit the skids, we don't lose everything. We have been talking about this coming for a while.

Everything I read that has a positive spin on it, seems to be completely out of touch with what is actually going on, and is based on frivolous speculation. I know a guy that owns a big mortgage company, and he always putting some positive bullshit out there about the market being strong. I think he has to believe the shit to sell it. I also think he is fully extended on his income, even though its massive compared to mine, and if he takes an income hit, he loses everything, again, like he did the last time.
Click to expand...

huskers1217 said:
Its not good and its not going to be good for a while. Its a bubble that was going to pop and everyone should have known that. I considered 6 months ago to sell and rent for a year but am afraid rents won't follow the trend. Its very scary on the horizon.
Click to expand...
Here is the weird thing though that doesn't make sense: We also have a supply issue where it is exceptionally hard to get a house built period so this will keep inventory very light and values up. I live in a new construction neighborhood and the houses around me that they are building have taken 12 to 14 months (a lot of it sitting there with no work and the interest carry has to be killing the builder) and these in normal times would be 6 to 8 month builds easy.

In my area prices have soared so I wouldn't be surprised to see them come down 20% as that is where they probably should be but I don't see it going any further because the inventory is still not out there. The interest rates will hurt and slow things down but people will offset that by getting 7-year arms instead (for the record I do not recommend doing this and I am a strong advocate of getting a fixed-rate mortgage that you can afford so you know exactly what your payment is).

Now the mortgage guys are going to lose a percentage of their business especially if they had a strong refinance business because no one is going to be refinancing with rates going up.

Of course, all of this is going to vary from market to market. A lot of places in the south are red hot because all the people from New York and New Jersey are moving here, selling their houses for about 750K and buying 450K down here and not shy to go to 550K because they have the cash. My cousin has been trying to buy a house in a particular neighborhood and people are paying 30 to 40K over asking on average. I told her to wait and it will calm down so she is sitting on cash living with her mom until it cools and I don't think she will have to wait long.

The one thing I know is this is NOT a predictable market because we have high inflation and record unemployment which doesn't happen. The rate increases are just an attempt from the Fed to cool inflation but I'm not sure that is going to work because the real issue is in the supply chain and with higher interest rates is going to be expensive for companies to expand operations and hire people.
 
Dole ver 2.0 said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the Fed hiked the rate by a full percentage point.
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They say it is going to be .75 and markets adjusted to that rate. It would be foolish to go higher without notice.
 
HammerDown said:
"I don't care about Bitcoin at all, guys!" - Dole, for the 917th time
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Stop It Michael Jordan GIF
 
There are two new housing developments that just broke ground within two miles of me. There will probably be 5-6 months before they can sell and I'd be interested to see what they are priced at.
 
Wild Turkey said:
Here is the weird thing though that doesn't make sense: We also have a supply issue where it is exceptionally hard to get a house built period so this will keep inventory very light and values up. I live in a new construction neighborhood and the houses around me that they are building have taken 12 to 14 months (a lot of it sitting there with no work and the interest carry has to be killing the builder) and these in normal times would be 6 to 8 month builds easy.

In my area prices have soared so I wouldn't be surprised to see them come down 20% as that is where they probably should be but I don't see it going any further because the inventory is still not out there. The interest rates will hurt and slow things down but people will offset that by getting 7-year arms instead (for the record I do not recommend doing this and I am a strong advocate of getting a fixed-rate mortgage that you can afford so you know exactly what your payment is).

Now the mortgage guys are going to lose a percentage of their business especially if they had a strong refinance business because no one is going to be refinancing with rates going up.

Of course, all of this is going to vary from market to market. A lot of places in the south are red hot because all the people from New York and New Jersey are moving here, selling their houses for about 750K and buying 450K down here and not shy to go to 550K because they have the cash. My cousin has been trying to buy a house in a particular neighborhood and people are paying 30 to 40K over asking on average. I told her to wait and it will calm down so she is sitting on cash living with her mom until it cools and I don't think she will have to wait long.

The one thing I know is this is NOT a predictable market because we have high inflation and record unemployment which doesn't happen. The rate increases are just an attempt from the Fed to cool inflation but I'm not sure that is going to work because the real issue is in the supply chain and with higher interest rates is going to be expensive for companies to expand operations and hire people.
Click to expand...
all of this means nothing to what is currently going on. all those houses were sold last year, or previous to the issues happening now. there are massive developments all over vegas. they have not had the supply shortages I guess, because thousands of homes have been built in the last couple years. these developments now, are selling about 10% of what they sold(are building) last year this time.

Everyone here has been saying"No matter what, people from cali will buy everything, Dont worry!" Interest rates can change that instantaneously, for many of those people.
 
Peter Gozintite said:
all of this means nothing to what is currently going on. all those houses were sold last year, or previous to the issues happening now. there are massive developments all over vegas. they have not had the supply shortages I guess, because thousands of homes have been built in the last couple years. these developments now, are selling about 10% of what they sold(are building) last year this time.

Everyone here has been saying"No matter what, people from cali will buy everything, Dont worry!" Interest rates can change that instantaneously, for many of those people.
Click to expand...
I’m not seeing that in the South. I definitely see a correction coming but not to the extent that you feel is coming to Vegas.

Of course down here we rarely feel the full pain of recessions or the peaks of a roaring economy as we trend more to the middle.

I’m just seeing tremendous growth everywhere down here and I see it slowing but not bottoming out.
 
Wild Turkey said:
I’m not seeing that in the South. I definitely see a correction coming but not to the extent that you feel is coming to Vegas.

Of course down here we rarely feel the full pain of recessions or the peaks of a roaring economy as we trend more to the middle.

I’m just seeing tremendous growth everywhere down here and I see it slowing but not bottoming out.
Click to expand...
"a correction"

lol
 
Wild Turkey said:
I’m not seeing that in the South. I definitely see a correction coming but not to the extent that you feel is coming to Vegas.

Of course down here we rarely feel the full pain of recessions or the peaks of a roaring economy as we trend more to the middle.

I’m just seeing tremendous growth everywhere down here and I see it slowing but not bottoming out.
Click to expand...
like I said, I'm calling it. It starting. we are not in the middle of anything yet. its the beginning.
 
Peter Gozintite said:
I hope you waited to buy, or are still prepared to wait a little longer. I have said it before, that I am always the first one hit by the real estate fluctuations. some things that I have observed from the previous market crash, and how it relates to this one.

1st, in Vegas, when the market is strong, you only see "Open Houses" when a few rare seller's wont come down off ridiculous prices, and the listing agents will hold them. I am seeing them everywhere, and even on week days right now. clear sign to me that some prices are dropping, and no one wants to sell for less than their neighbor did a month or two ago.

2nd, me being the first affected, directly due to the fact that I work for property buyers specifically, and I have been up and down quite a bit, but now, the last 3 weeks, I have been SLOW. 2 to 3 inspections a few weeks ago, 2 inspections all last week, and one so far this week. I am going to be doing some contractor type work for the next year or so I think.

3rd, even though the last crash was not the same type, or for the same reasons, real estate has no chance but to be affected negatively by interest rates going up. they are climbing, and will continue to climb, in my estimation. its going to take some time for things to bottom out, but I see anywhere from a 20 to 40 percent drop in home values coming. I have a good friend that is one of my best agents. he went to school and got a degree in finance and economics. He is also terrified right now. we both haver similar situations, where our wives also do pretty well, so if we hit the skids, we don't lose everything. We have been talking about this coming for a while.

Everything I read that has a positive spin on it, seems to be completely out of touch with what is actually going on, and is based on frivolous speculation. I know a guy that owns a big mortgage company, and he always putting some positive bullshit out there about the market being strong. I think he has to believe the shit to sell it. I also think he is fully extended on his income, even though its massive compared to mine, and if he takes an income hit, he loses everything, again, like he did the last time.
Click to expand...

Yeah I’ve been hearing it in tourist areas and tech areas like Austin coming next. In places like Dallas where it’s growing at a stupid rate it’s not slowing. Mostly due to west coasters coming and low inventory. But the build up is probably slowly happening.


Good info man appreciate it. Been thinking about making a move for a rental house but I’m gonna wait for the cycle to cycle
 
A huge difference from the last market crash is how out-of-control rents are now. Before you had a good chance at renting an apartment on the cheap if you went into foreclosure. That's no longer an option. That along with being in a perpetual housing shortage nationwide seems to indicate we may be in for some really bad times.
 
Catlanta33 said:
A huge difference from the last market crash is how out-of-control rents are now. Before you had a good chance at renting an apartment on the cheap if you went into foreclosure. That's no longer an option. That along with being in a perpetual housing shortage nationwide seems to indicate we may be in for some really bad times.
Click to expand...
howdy stranger
 
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