Interesting article on no more expansion ...

duckboy33 said:
Chris Dodd went from "Big Ten doesn't want Oregon and Washington" to "Big Ten is targeting Oregon, Washington, Stanford and California" to "The Big Ten wants those schools but can't look like they're violating anti-trust rules"

I guess he's covering all of his bases so he can say "I called it"
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Dodd 3 weeks later: expansion is back on!

Link

:rofl:

I guess the anti-trust stuff has been solved
 
duckboy33 said:
Dodd 3 weeks later: expansion is back on!

Link

:rofl:

I guess the anti-trust stuff has been solved
Click to expand...
That’s what the headlined said but the article didn’t really support it. Basically it said the B1G had cooled to adding the 4 PAC teams it was evaluating. Since Cal was in that group I put little confidence that it was accurate anyway.

The most likely scenario is that Washington and Oregon lobby for a bigger cut of future earning but we all know how that ends.
 
Wild Turkey said:
That’s what the headlined said but the article didn’t really support it. Basically it said the B1G had cooled to adding the 4 PAC teams it was evaluating. Since Cal was in that group I put little confidence that it was accurate anyway.

The most likely scenario is that Washington and Oregon lobby for a bigger cut of future earning but we all know how that ends.
Click to expand...

lol try again
 
duckboy33 said:
lol try again
Click to expand...
Post what you saw where they were thinking about expansion, here is the main paragraph:

CBS Sports reported last month the Big Ten was evaluating California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington as potential future league members. Rightsholders pushed back on the notion as they did not believe those current Pac-12 schools would bring equal value to the league as USC and UCLA did upon being added. CBS Sports subsequently reported interest had cooled on those four schools; however, adding those four schools would create additional inventory for the Big Ten, which could result in ESPN getting a piece of the action.

That means the networks weren’t on board.

Here is another paragraph:

But in the Pac-12? They have plenty of leverage. That has led to speculation Oregon and Washington could agree to stay in a reconstituted Pac-12 with an uneven revenue distribution paying the Ducks and Huskies more than other programs. If the pair make that demand, what option would commissioner George Kliavkoff have to consider?

The above would be a slow death.
 
duckboy33 said:
lol try again
Click to expand...
On balance, Wild Turkey gets the best of this argument. The article says that maybe ESPN jumps in for a piece, and the other networks say they are fine with expansion. Well, of course they are. But unless there is some type of pro rata increase in revenue, and it doesn't sound as if there is, then this isn't happening unless the B1G teams want to take less. They said they don't want that.

With respect to ESPN, the inventory would have to be the worst games. They might want that just to fill time slots, but they won't pay a premium for it.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
On balance, Wild Turkey gets the best of this argument. The article says that maybe ESPN jumps in for a piece, and the other networks say they are fine with expansion. Well, of course they are. But unless there is some type of pro rata increase in revenue, and it doesn't sound as if there is, then this isn't happening unless the B1G teams want to take less. They said they don't want that.

With respect to ESPN, the inventory would have to be the worst games. They might want that just to fill time slots, but they won't pay a premium for it.
Click to expand...

choose to believe what you want…it will be proven out in time
 
duckboy33 said:
choose to believe what you want…it will be proven out in time
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Well, Captain Obvious, of course it will be proven out in time. Just what is proven is the interesting part. Look, the fact that people are still talking about it is good news for you guys. The fact that there might be some wiggle room is good.

FWIW, I didn't say it wouldn't happen. I just said, or was trying to say, that his analysis of the article was more accurate than yours. My opinion of course.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Well, Captain Obvious, of course it will be proven out in time. Just what is proven is the interesting part. Look, the fact that people are still talking about it is good news for you guys. The fact that there might be some wiggle room is good.

FWIW, I didn't say it wouldn't happen. I just said, or was trying to say, that his analysis of the article was more accurate than yours. My opinion of course.
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The big problem is time is not on their side because a network deal and signing a GOR is on the horizon. A network isn’t going to commit if Oregon and Washington don’t sign a GOR and Arizona and ASU aren’t going to stick around if those two schools get a larger cut.

The PAC is acting all cool but things are about to escalate.
 
WhosYourDawggy said:
Well, Captain Obvious, of course it will be proven out in time. Just what is proven is the interesting part. Look, the fact that people are still talking about it is good news for you guys. The fact that there might be some wiggle room is good.

FWIW, I didn't say it wouldn't happen. I just said, or was trying to say, that his analysis of the article was more accurate than yours. My opinion of course.
Click to expand...

Dennis Dodd's reporting has been full of contradictions and hedges, that's my analysis. Did the anti-trust stuff just disappear?

There's never been a heating up or cooling. It's about timing.

1) Big Ten gets their media deal
2) Notre Dame makes a decision on joining or not
3) Big Ten expansion to 20 is announced

With the language around expansion in the contract and Warren's comments, going to 20 is a foregone conclusion. It's just about when ND makes a decision and then deciding how to get to 20 if they say no.

Go listen to Bruce Feldman. He's saying the same things I've been told by people more in the loop. Feldman doesn't say things just for a sound bite. If he's talking, I'm listening.
 
Wild Turkey said:
The big problem is time is not on their side because a network deal and signing a GOR is on the horizon. A network isn’t going to commit if Oregon and Washington don’t sign a GOR and Arizona and ASU aren’t going to stick around if those two schools get a larger cut.

The PAC is acting all cool but things are about to escalate.
Click to expand...

Good chance 80% of the remaining teams are in different conferences before the media deal starts. Nobody is signing a long term GOR, they are going to push for a very short term contract. Assuming the conference isn't poached by the Big Ten prior to completing a media deal.
 
Wild Turkey said:
Post what you saw where they were thinking about expansion, here is the main paragraph:

CBS Sports reported last month the Big Ten was evaluating California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington as potential future league members. Rightsholders pushed back on the notion as they did not believe those current Pac-12 schools would bring equal value to the league as USC and UCLA did upon being added. CBS Sports subsequently reported interest had cooled on those four schools; however, adding those four schools would create additional inventory for the Big Ten, which could result in ESPN getting a piece of the action.

That means the networks weren’t on board.

Here is another paragraph:

But in the Pac-12? They have plenty of leverage. That has led to speculation Oregon and Washington could agree to stay in a reconstituted Pac-12 with an uneven revenue distribution paying the Ducks and Huskies more than other programs. If the pair make that demand, what option would commissioner George Kliavkoff have to consider?

The above would be a slow death.
Click to expand...

That's the reporting from last month. The article is admittedly very poor and short on facts. Dodd has done a very poor job on this story

Here's the important part:
"If there were additional games to be added in different time slots, we would certainly take a look at that. I'm sure NBC and Fox would also. Expansion, by and large, would only be a positive. But we would have to find windows and time slots to air any potential games but that would be a benefit to everybody."

1) Needs to open a timeslot they don't already have - PAC 12 schools do that
2) Need a media partner - espn
3) Don't shrink the pie - Feldman even said this might not be the case but even if you think it's true, the language in the Big Tens contract ensures that nobody will take a paycut in order to go to 20.

This is looks like a done deal, the next domino is an official decision from ND. I’d expect that in the next two months but it could be dragged out until next year. Big Ten will announce 20 by the end of 2023 at the latest but could be much sooner
 
Oregon is in trouble b/c Ohio State is still mad at the way the Ducks exposed them as just another slow midwestern team. No way the Buckeyes let the Ducks into the Big Ten
 
If we join Stanford better be the next team in line. If I was the B1G, I'd probably stop there. Two 9-team divisions:

B1G East:
Rutgers
Maryland
PSU
OSU
MSU
Michigan
Indiana
Purdue
NW

B1G West:
ND
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Nebraska
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Minnesota

Rotate the B1GCG between the Rose Bowl and Indianapolis.
 
ericd7633 said:
If we join Stanford better be the next team in line. If I was the B1G, I'd probably stop there. Two 9-team divisions:

B1G East:
Rutgers
Maryland
PSU
OSU
MSU
Michigan
Indiana
Purdue
NW

B1G West:
ND
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Nebraska
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Minnesota

Rotate the B1GCG between the Rose Bowl and Indianapolis.
Click to expand...

Stanford, Oregon and Washington will be joining. ND will have that option to join now but they’ll go to 20 without ND if need be.

Sounds like the plan is to ditch divisions. 4-5-5-5 model has some support. 4 permanent rivals plus 5 other games rotated
 
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