Interesting Debate: Would OU and Texas have joined early if not for UCLA and USC move to B1G?

[Volbound1700]

I am wondering if that played a factor in the 2024 entry and buy-out. I am thinking from the perspective of ESPN and not necessarily the SEC or OU/Texas.

ESPN probably saw the B1G/Fox as upping their ante with the UCLA and USC add and wanted to match with the high profile SEC Expansion.

 

[outofyourmind]

This is my thinking.

 

[outofyourmind]

ESPN probably saw the B1G/Fox as upping their ante with the UCLA and USC add and wanted to match with the high profile SEC Expansion.

I get the feeling that espn just didn't want to wait for 2025 when, like you say, all eye's would be on the B1G

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

We'll have a better idea if and when the SEC announces their new schedule. I've written this before, but right now the hold-up is ESPN. The SEC is not going to go to 9 games unless ESPN renegotiates. Now, it's clearly in their interest to do so ... they don't want to piss off the SEC, and they are going to make a ton of money off it, and they know they got the 3:30 slot from CBS because they wouldn't renegotiate. So, it's more a matter of time, not really if.

If you run the schedules with OU and TX coming in, 9 IC games, and the 3-6-6 format, you would be amazed at the increase in really high-end, 4 million set of eyeballs type games. It goes from less than a dozen per year to over 3 dozen per year. So, ESPN will have the money to do this.

 

[Thiefery]

I think UT/ou would have forced a deal to happen even if ESPN wasn't happy.. They don't want any parts of this new Big12 lineup. I think the CFP expansion, more than anything, had the '24 move in a must.

 

[Wild Turkey]

I think UT/ou would have forced a deal to happen even if ESPN wasn't happy.. They don't want any parts of this new Big12 lineup. I think the CFP expansion, more than anything, had the '24 move in a must.

I tend to agree with most of this. UT/OU wanted out and are ponying up to do so. The SEC was fine either way.

Truth is your schedules were stale as fuck so I imagine the new schedules will make bank for both.

 

[Volbound1700]

I think UT/ou would have forced a deal to happen even if ESPN wasn't happy.. They don't want any parts of this new Big12 lineup. I think the CFP expansion, more than anything, had the '24 move in a must.

I could see that as a factor as well. The new 12-team line up would have been different. You guys do have to deal with it for one year though.

 

[Deep Creek]

We'll have a better idea if and when the SEC announces their new schedule. I've written this before, but right now the hold-up is ESPN. The SEC is not going to go to 9 games unless ESPN renegotiates. Now, it's clearly in their interest to do so ... they don't want to piss off the SEC, and they are going to make a ton of money off it, and they know they got the 3:30 slot from CBS because they wouldn't renegotiate. So, it's more a matter of time, not really if.

If you run the schedules with OU and TX coming in, 9 IC games, and the 3-6-6 format, you would be amazed at the increase in really high-end, 4 million set of eyeballs type games. It goes from less than a dozen per year to over 3 dozen per year. So, ESPN will have the money to do this.

That stat is pretty staggering IMHO. I doubt the B1G comes close to that number even with the addition of USC/UCLA. Mainly because the SEC is getting both Texas AND OU as national draws. The B1G is only getting USC as a national draw. Maybe I'm wrong but would games like UCLA vs Michigan State draw those numbers? I don't see it.

That said, I don't see hardly ANY games among the other three conferences that will reach that 4 million set of eyeballs type games. Maybe Clem vs FSU in the ACC and Oregon vs Washington in the PAC 12. I don't see any in the Big 12 reaching that number unless BYU and another Big 12 team are very highly ranked late in the season. Then the LDS numbers added to other interested eyeballs might.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

That stat is pretty staggering IMHO. I doubt the B1G comes close to that number even with the addition of USC/UCLA. Mainly because the SEC is getting both Texas AND OU as national draws. The B1G is only getting USC as a national draw. Maybe I'm wrong but would games like UCLA vs Michigan State draw those numbers? I don't see it.

That said, I don't see hardly ANY games among the other three conferences that will reach that 4 million set of eyeballs type games. Maybe Clem vs FSU in the ACC and Oregon vs Washington in the PAC 12. I don't see any in the Big 12 reaching that number unless BYU and another Big 12 team are very highly ranked late in the season. Then the LDS numbers added to other interested eyeballs might.

Where the SEC comes out ahead is that (1) their footprint is football crazy, and (2) we just have more teams that will drive the 4 million eyeball games:

B1G: tOSU, UM and maybe PSU. That's pretty much it. Maybe USC.

SEC: Bama, UGA, UTjr, UT, OU, UF, LSU, AU, TAMU

A ton of the SEC's are annual games: all 3 of Bamas, 2 of UGAs, 2 of OUs, 2 of TX, etc. Then you have the fact that half of those 9 will play every other year. The inventory is going to be insane:

Every year:

UA v. AU
UA v. LSU
UA v. UTjr
UGA v. UF
UGA v. AU
UF v. OU
OU v. TX
TX v. ATM
ATM v. LSU

Then you have half of these every other year:
UA v. UGA
UA v. OU
UA v. OU
UA v. TX
UA v. ATM
UGA v. UTjr
UGA v. OU
UGA v. TX
UGA v. LSU
UGA v. ATM
UTjr v. UF
UTjr v. OU
UTjr v. ATM
UTjr v. LSU
UTjr v. TX
OU v. LSU

... I can keep going on and on. Easily 2 premiere games per week, sometimes 3.

The 2022 “4 million club”​

Here are all of the games that broke 4 million viewers this season:

There were 39 teams that played in at least one game that cracked 4 million viewers:

SEC - 37
B1G - 33

What makes the difference here is that almost all of the B1Gs involve the top 2 teams, while the SEC is more spread out with about 6-7 teams driving the 4 million eyeball games.

8 — Ohio State
7 — Alabama, Michigan
6 — Tennessee
5 — Georgia
4 — Florida
3 — Auburn, Clemson, Kentucky, Penn State, TCU, Texas
2 — Florida State, Iowa, LSU, Maryland, Michigan State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Southern Cal
1 — Arkansas, Army, Baylor, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa State, Mississippi, Navy, NC State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Syracuse, Texas A&M, UCLA, Wisconsin

1. Michigan at Ohio State — 17.14M
2. Tennessee at Georgia — 13.06M
3. Alabama at Tennessee — 11.56M
4. Alabama at Texas — 10.60M
5. Notre Dame vs. Ohio State — 10.53M
6. Alabama at Mississippi — 8.71M
7. Ohio State at Penn State — 8.27M
8. Alabama at LSU — 7.58M
9. Florida State vs. LSU — 7.55M
10. Texas A&M at Alabama — 7.15M
11. Army vs. Navy — 6.94M
12. Florida at Florida State — 6.71M
13. Notre Dame at Southern Cal, 6.68M
14. Ohio State at Maryland — 6.60M
15. Penn State at Michigan — 6.45M
16. Auburn at Alabama — 6.27M
17. Oregon vs. Georgia — 6.20M
18. Alabama at Arkansas — 5.83M
19. Florida at Georgia — 5.62M
20. Michigan at Michigan State — 5.58M
21. Florida at Tennessee — 5.57M
22. Illinois at Michigan — 5.47M
23. TCU at Texas — 5.03M
24. NC State at Clemson — 4.98M
25. Tennessee at South Carolina — 4.87M
26. Clemson at Georgia Tech — 4.86M
27. Ohio State at Northwestern — 4.76M
28. Syracuse at Clemson — 4.75M
29. Wisconsin at Ohio State — 4.59M
30. Southern Cal at UCLA — 4.53M
31. Georgia at Kentucky — 4.48M
32. Tennessee at Pittsburgh — 4.46M
33. Texas at Oklahoma State — 4.46M
34. Ohio State at Michigan State — 4.44M
35. Nebraska vs. Northwestern — 4.42M
36. Maryland at Michigan — 4.38M
37. Iowa at Ohio State — 4.38M
38. TCU at Baylor — 4.35M
39. Iowa State at TCU — 4.34M
40. Kentucky at Florida — 4.33M
41. Auburn at Georgia — 4.24M
42. Michigan at Iowa — 4.20M
43. Penn State at Auburn — 4.05M
44. Kentucky at Tennessee — 4.04M
45. Michigan at Indiana — 4.01M

 

[Deep Creek]

1. Nebraska vs. Northwestern — 4.42M
2. TCU at Baylor — 4.35M
3. Iowa State at TCU — 4.34M

These three are the only s. I'd of never thought they'd have broken 4 million. Wondering if the time slots for those three didn't have any other games of any significance scheduled opposite them. That Iowa State TCU game wasn't very entertaining IMO.

 

[WhosYourDawggy]

These three are the only s. I'd of never thought they'd have broken 4 million. Wondering if the time slots for those three didn't have any other games of any significance scheduled opposite them. That Iowa State TCU game wasn't very entertaining IMO.

Another odd one was Clemson v. GaTech ... Clemson you get, but they didn't come close with NCSU and other similar teams that are better. So the Nerds?

 

[Volbound1700]

Another odd one was Clemson v. GaTech ... Clemson you get, but they didn't come close with NCSU and other similar teams that are better. So the Nerds?

That was on a Monday night on the opening weekend of College Football. It was also the only game on that night. I would say that played a huge part.

 

[Red_Alert]

1. Nebraska vs. Northwestern — 4.42M
2. TCU at Baylor — 4.35M
3. Iowa State at TCU — 4.34M

These three are the only s. I'd of never thought they'd have broken 4 million. Wondering if the time slots for those three didn't have any other games of any significance scheduled opposite them. That Iowa State TCU game wasn't very entertaining IMO.

Nebraska vs Northwestern is easy to explain. It was Week 0, opening day of CFB, and it was the only P5 vs P5 game that day.



Regarding TCU @ Baylor, it was Week 12, TCU was unbeaten, and ranked #4 in the CFP poll as well as the AP & Coaches.

Regarding Iowa St @ TCU, it was Week 13, TCU was unbeaten, and ranked #4 in the CFP poll as well as the AP and Coaches.

Yeah TCU was getting eyeballs because they were a potential CFP team.

 

[SoonerC]

I think it had more to do with aligning with the expanded playoff