north carolina gotta get a little wet this weekend

huskers1217

huskers1217

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Yeah, sposed-ta start Saturday.

Whatever happened to Mega-Storm Lee??
 
huskers1217 said:
@Red_Alert - I haven't had a chance to review this radar for this storm. At 50 mph sustained, why isn't it named? No closed circulation?
Click to expand...

To this point 16 has exhibited more 'extratropical' characteristics than 'tropical'. There is no convection over it's center of circulation.

1695403560181.png


If you look at the surface map, it's basically it's own frontal boundary.

1695403341191.png
 
The SST's are there however, it's COC is taking about 30 kts of shear and it's moving into 40 and even 50 kts. That will likely continue to impede convection around it's center.


1695403801405.png
 
Last edited:
NHC went ahead and named it 'Ophelia'.

Mainly because people pay more attention to watches and warnings related to named storms.

It is subtropical however, tropical storm conditions (winds, surge, etc) will be felt.
 
North Carolina, come on and raise up.
Take your shirt off, twist it round your head.
Spin it, like a helicopter!
 
huskers1217 said:
just checking temps.. up to 70 going into colder water.

nope no hurricane
Click to expand...

I wouldn't stick a fork in hurricane status yet.


Ophelia's beginning to get convection to wrap around it's COC and is heading into the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. I don't expect a closed eyewall, but Cat 1 winds are possible.

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"The structure of the cyclone has undergone some noteworthy changes
today. GOES-16 1-min visible imagery, along with data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and earlier scatterometer data, indicate
that the center of the system has become better defined and is no
longer attached to fronts. The satellite presentation has evolved as
well, with the center becoming tucked under an area of deep
convection this afternoon. The radius of maximum wind has contracted
to around 50 to 60 n mi, further supporting its designation as
Tropical Storm Ophelia earlier this afternoon. Aircraft data reveal
that Ophelia has also strengthened, with the minimum pressure down
to 986 mb and reduced flight-level and SFMR winds that support an
initial intensity of 60 kt."
"The intensity forecast is more challenging given the unexpected
strengthening trend observed today. Most of the intensity guidance
shows little change in strength before landfall, although the global
models show additional deepening of the low. However, some
additional strengthening cannot be ruled out as Ophelia traverses
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream on its approach to eastern North
Carolina. While this does not seem like the most likely outcome and
is not explicitly forecast, the increased risk warrants the issuance
of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the North Carolina coast from
north of Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet."

 
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