Orlando Cepeda RIP

[DragonFromTo]

I was curious about how the Run Expectancy matrix might value all of this so I took a look at it. I used the 1950-1968 matrix (found here, thank you Tangotiger) because it seemed like the best option of those available.

Here are their respective rates per PA for each basic non-outmaking event. You can check that I did not err significantly by seeing that the totals more or less add up to the player's respective OBPs (I did not bother with sacrifices)

View attachment 121726

I ran each event through the Run Expectancy matrix and got the following values for them

View attachment 121725


If we plug these values in using the players' career event per PA rates we get a RE24 of 0.469 for Cepeda and 0.439 for McCovey. And this is without even subtracting the negative value of the outs (which Cepeda has more of). So McCovey in fact would appear to be a slightly superior choice in this situation if we are just trying to maximize runs.

It is more complicated to figure out which player would give our team a better chance of scoring the 4 (or more) runs that we "need" in the inning but I think that it is safe to conclude that McCovey would be the correct answer there as well even without the exact numbers.

Seemed a bit unfair and incorrect of me to count the negative value of the DPs but not include any other outs. With Ks and basic single outs included (I assumed that a run would score on any out made on a ball in play, this is probably about equally generous to both players) we now get 0.378 for McCovey and 0.371 for Cepeda. So McCovey still appears to be the better choice.

 

[jvett77]

A single is generally better than a walk for all of these reasons, yes. But the thing about this specific situation is that all that really matters here is scoring that 4th run. If you don't score 4 runs in this inning you are going home a loser. With his higher batting average Cepeda might give you a slightly better chance of knocking in those guys in scoring position but he also is a greater risk than McCovey is to make an out (or two) while attempting to knock them in. If you're down by 4 runs and only have 3 (or fewer) outs left I think that the extra OBP (which of course is just "out avoidance") that McCovey will bring to the plate is more important and more valuable (especially since there is also a better chance that McCovey will tie the game with one swing).

That being said there certainly are game situations where Cepeda would be a better choice than McCovey, no doubt about that. I just don't think that the example that you gave is one of them. I wouldn't trade the extra out avoidance ability and HR power that McCovey has just to maybe slightly increase the chances of scoring a couple of runs (when you need 4). Especially when you've already implied that we can't trust the guys coming up to do anything. I mean, if you think that they have little to no chance of knocking McCovey in from first base after he walks how do you think they are going to manage to knock Cepeda in from first base after he singles?

Good analysis. I'll tell you what. I'm an old man and out of examples. You can have the manager job.

BTW, I'm surprised that these great Giants' hitters didn't appear in many World Series. Mays, McCovey, and Cepeda played in the 1962 WS losing to the Yankees. Bonds in the 2002 WS losing to the Angels. Mays in 1951 WS losing to the Yankees, then winning the 1954 WS beating Cleveland. Cepeda in 1967 WS for STL beating Boston; Mays was in the 1973 WS for the Mets losing to the A's. I think I got them all.

 

[jvett77]

Of course the Giants did go on the win the 2010, 2012, and 2014 WS with Posey.

 

[DragonFromTo]

Good analysis. I'll tell you what. I'm an old man and out of examples. You can have the manager job.

BTW, I'm surprised that these great Giants' hitters didn't appear in many World Series. Mays, McCovey, and Cepeda played in the 1962 WS losing to the Yankees. Bonds in the 2002 WS losing to the Angels. Mays in 1951 WS losing to the Yankees, then winning the 1954 WS beating Cleveland. Cepeda in 1967 WS for STL beating Boston; Mays was in the 1973 WS for the Mets losing to the A's. I think I got them all.

Who really wants to be a manager? Unless you own the club or die on the job you're getting fired anyway

 

[DragonFromTo]

Good analysis. I'll tell you what. I'm an old man and out of examples. You can have the manager job.

BTW, I'm surprised that these great Giants' hitters didn't appear in many World Series. Mays, McCovey, and Cepeda played in the 1962 WS losing to the Yankees. Bonds in the 2002 WS losing to the Angels. Mays in 1951 WS losing to the Yankees, then winning the 1954 WS beating Cleveland. Cepeda in 1967 WS for STL beating Boston; Mays was in the 1973 WS for the Mets losing to the A's. I think I got them all.

I'd never really thought about it and/or looked at it but those Giants clubs in the 60s look like they really were a stars and scrubs bunch. They seem like they always had 1 or 2 absolutely terrible hitters in the lineup offsetting some of the value of those superstars.