Predict the CFP Top 25

Illustrious Potentate said:
That’s kinda fucky TBH.

TN losing all margin of error makes their odds go up?
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It definitely is fucky, but if they lose to you, they are a 1-loss team who's only loss is to Georgia...the only other team that can make that claim is Oregon right now...and I don't expect you guys are going to beat Tenn 49-3 nor is Oregon going to have an Alabama win on their resume.

If you guys win out and we win out it will be Alabama vs Georgia for the SEC title. If we win, we are in and you are in, Tennessee could still sneak in as a third. If you win, you and Tennessee get in.

Tennessee gets in with a win regardless.
 
Rolltide94 said:
It definitely is fucky, but if they lose to you, they are a 1-loss team who's only loss is to Georgia...the only other team that can make that claim is Oregon right now...and I don't expect you guys are going to beat Tenn 49-3 nor is Oregon going to have an Alabama win on their resume.

If you guys win out and we win out it will be Alabama vs Georgia for the SEC title. If we win, we are in and you are in, Tennessee could still sneak in as a third. If you win, you and Tennessee get in.

Tennessee gets in with a win regardless.
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They'd put Bama and UGA in if that were the case.

Tennessee isnt getting the Bama/UGA treatment this year, they have to win the SEC, IMO.

Maybe in future years if their success continues, but they don't have the prior benefit of the doubt to get it this year.

1 loss ACC champ Clemson is getting in over 1 loss non champ Tennessee. They LOVE Clemson for some reason.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
They'd put Bama and UGA in if that were the case.

Tennessee isnt getting the Bama/UGA treatment this year, they have to win the SEC, IMO.

Maybe in future years if their success continues, but they don't have the prior benefit of the doubt to get it this year.

1 loss ACC champ Clemson is getting in over 1 loss non champ Tennessee. They LOVE Clemson for some reason.
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I agree but if Alabama losses, they are out. The worse case scenario for Tennessee is losing in Athens and having Georgia lose in Atlanta to Alabama while Alabama wins out.
 
Volbound1700 said:
I agree but if Alabama losses, they are out. The worse case scenario for Tennessee is losing in Athens and having Georgia lose in Atlanta to Alabama while Alabama wins out.
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Georgia winning out is the best case for the people who don't want to see 2 SEC teams again, lol.

It honestly really depends on how the UGA/Tennessee game goes too though. If Tennessee loses but can keep it within a score I won't totally count them out from sneaking back into the top 4 with 1 loss at the end. If UGA wins by multiple scores or its a total blowout I don't think they've got much of a shot though.

It's hard to see them keeping a 1 loss UGA out in any scenario though. Unless Clemson and TCU both remain unbeaten.
 
I watched the Joel Klatt Show today in relation to the first CFP rankings. He has a lot of good points. Many say that the first rankings don't matter. He says you don't think that if a recruit gets a letter from TCU, Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson. You think this recruit is going to really consider TCU when they can have some good wins and be undefeated and end up down the CFP ladder. Not that I necessarily agree with his next point, but he says that Tennessee absolutely destroyed LSU and this helped Tennessee in their ranking. He continues to say that Michigan drilling Penn State didn't really help their ranking. I feel that Klatt looked at a lot of the good wins of teams, but didn't look at the very weak SOS.
 
Collegefbfan said:
I watched the Joel Klatt Show today in relation to the first CFP rankings. He has a lot of good points. Many say that the first rankings don't matter. He says you don't think that if a recruit gets a letter from TCU, Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson. You think this recruit is going to really consider TCU when they can have some good wins and be undefeated and end up down the CFP ladder. Not that I necessarily agree with his next point, but he says that Tennessee absolutely destroyed LSU and this helped Tennessee in their ranking. He continues to say that Michigan drilling Penn State didn't really help their ranking. I feel that Klatt looked at a lot of the good wins of teams, but didn't look at the very weak SOS.
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It is obvious that the committee uses different criteria as a priority for different teams. They can't be using the same criteria in the same order for every team or it would look different. From what the chair said Tuesday, the main criteria used for TCU was "game control". Their come from behind wins didn't indicate they had control of their games. For Michigan it appears the main criteria used was a weak OOC schedule.

We wanted a committee and I have no problem with using varying criteria. Only problem I have is them even putting out a ranking this early. Let the beauty contest that is the AP poll roll until it is time for them to decide. Hoops doesn't do it early do they?
 
Deep Creek said:
It is obvious that the committee uses different criteria as a priority for different teams. They can't be using the same criteria in the same order for every team or it would look different. From what the chair said Tuesday, the main criteria used for TCU was "game control". Their come from behind wins didn't indicate they had control of their games. For Michigan it appears the main criteria used was a weak OOC schedule.

We wanted a committee and I have no problem with using varying criteria. Only problem I have is them even putting out a ranking this early. Let the beauty contest that is the AP poll roll until it is time for them to decide. Hoops doesn't do it early do they?
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Here were my issues:

1. Focus on strength of schedule for a lot of teams but have Ohio State at #2? Georgia made more sense for #2 plus the Georgia-Tennessee situation gets straightened out this Saturday anyways

2. TCU's spot makes no sense if you factor performance against tough opponents. TCU should be probably at #4 or #5.

3. Clemson was too high

4. Alabama should not be in front of TCU. Alabama should have been at #7

5. LSU should have been more around #12.

I would have gone with the following top 10:

1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. TCU
5. Michigan
6. Clemson
7. Alabama
8. Oregon
9. UCLA - (I think they have played a stronger schedule than USC to date)
10. USC


TCU was probably the biggest loser. My thought with TCU is that the committee doesn't expect TCU to win out.
 
Deep Creek said:
It is obvious that the committee uses different criteria as a priority for different teams. They can't be using the same criteria in the same order for every team or it would look different. From what the chair said Tuesday, the main criteria used for TCU was "game control". Their come from behind wins didn't indicate they had control of their games. For Michigan it appears the main criteria used was a weak OOC schedule.

We wanted a committee and I have no problem with using varying criteria. Only problem I have is them even putting out a ranking this early. Let the beauty contest that is the AP poll roll until it is time for them to decide. Hoops doesn't do it early do they?
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Yeah the chair of the CFP said they looked at teams that have game balance. TCU didn't check that box according to Boo Corrigan, however, TCU has I think Klatt said 20 passing TD's and 20 rushing TD's. I think I heard that correctly.
 
Deep Creek said:
It is obvious that the committee uses different criteria as a priority for different teams. They can't be using the same criteria in the same order for every team or it would look different. From what the chair said Tuesday, the main criteria used for TCU was "game control". Their come from behind wins didn't indicate they had control of their games. For Michigan it appears the main criteria used was a weak OOC schedule.

We wanted a committee and I have no problem with using varying criteria. Only problem I have is them even putting out a ranking this early. Let the beauty contest that is the AP poll roll until it is time for them to decide. Hoops doesn't do it early do they?
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Their criteria is never consistent and constantly changing, this is the problem with a all human element

They can always twist the criteria to favor teams they want to favor, and to penalize teams they don't want to favor.
 
Interesting stat: The game this weekend between Georgia and Tennessee is the first time the #1 AP ranked team has played against the #1 Playoff ranked team (likely due to the fact the polls are often the same).
 
Deep Creek said:
It is obvious that the committee uses different criteria as a priority for different teams. They can't be using the same criteria in the same order for every team or it would look different. From what the chair said Tuesday, the main criteria used for TCU was "game control". Their come from behind wins didn't indicate they had control of their games. For Michigan it appears the main criteria used was a weak OOC schedule.

We wanted a committee and I have no problem with using varying criteria. Only problem I have is them even putting out a ranking this early. Let the beauty contest that is the AP poll roll until it is time for them to decide. Hoops doesn't do it early do they?
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"We're looking for a balanced team, offense and defense, and [TCU] has gotten behind in some games," CFP selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said. "They've been able to come back and win those games. But when you look at Alabama -- in the wins against Mississippi State, at Arkansas, at Texas and obviously the three-point loss at Tennessee -- as a committee, we decided to go Alabama No. 6 and TCU No. 7."
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Yep. It's interesting how they look at TCU's "game control" against rank wins over KSU and OSU but ignore Bama's "game control" vs Texas and A&M and Clemson "game control" against Wake and Syracuse
 
Volbound1700 said:
Here were my issues:

1. Focus on strength of schedule for a lot of teams but have Ohio State at #2? Georgia made more sense for #2 plus the Georgia-Tennessee situation gets straightened out this Saturday anyways

2. TCU's spot makes no sense if you factor performance against tough opponents. TCU should be probably at #4 or #5.

3. Clemson was too high

4. Alabama should not be in front of TCU. Alabama should have been at #7

5. LSU should have been more around #12.

I would have gone with the following top 10:

1. Tennessee
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. TCU
5. Michigan
6. Clemson
7. Alabama
8. Oregon
9. UCLA - (I think they have played a stronger schedule than USC to date)
10. USC


TCU was probably the biggest loser. My thought with TCU is that the committee doesn't expect TCU to win out.
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This is exactly to my point about them twisting their "criteria" for certain teams depending on how they want the rankings to go, how they can justify them.

I'm sure they penalize TCU for their bad defense as well, but Tennessee's bad defense goes completely ignored.

Different rules for the teams they favor.
 
Basically they are going to put in who they want

Regardless of "criteria"

The "criteria" is just twisted mumbo jumbo in the end melded to how they can justify putting the teams they wanted in and justify leaving the teams they really didn't want in out.
 
osubuckeye89 said:
This is exactly to my point about them twisting their "criteria" for certain teams depending on how they want the rankings to go, how they can justify them.

I'm sure they penalize TCU for their bad defense as well, but Tennessee's bad defense goes completely ignored.

Different rules for the teams they favor.
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Yes. I looked and TCU is ranked 5 spots ahead of UCLA. One of them has a loss and the other is undefeated. But UCLA barely beats South Alabama and gives up 31 in the process. And UCLA has not beaten a team ranked in the CFP top 25, but TCU has beaten Kansas State and Oklahoma State, both in the CFP top 25. And TCU is only 5 spots ahead of them? And don't even get me started on Clemson. NC State with Leary almost lost to ECU, and Clemson gets credit for beating them? Notre Dame rips Syracuse a new one in Syracuse, the same Syracuse team that Clemson struggled to win in Death Valley.
 
Collegefbfan said:
Yes. I looked and TCU is ranked 5 spots ahead of UCLA. One of them has a loss and the other is undefeated. But UCLA barely beats South Alabama and gives up 31 in the process. And UCLA has not beaten a team ranked in the CFP top 25, but TCU has beaten Kansas State and Oklahoma State, both in the CFP top 25. And TCU is only 5 spots ahead of them? And don't even get me started on Clemson. NC State with Leary almost lost to ECU, and Clemson gets credit for beating them? Notre Dame rips Syracuse a new one in Syracuse, the same Syracuse team that Clemson struggled to win in Death Valley.
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LSU has a bad loss (Florida State is a bad loss) and yes their other loss is to Tennessee but that got BLOWN OUT AT HOME in that game and were never competitive at all. They also needed a INT with like 2 minutes left to secure a win against a bad Auburn team.

Yet here they are #10, so they can hedge getting them into the playoff with 2 losses if they somehow manage to win out. Where is their "game control" with 2 losses, one to a mediocre ACC team and the other a non competitive blowout at home, with a near 3rd loss to a bad team?
 
Collegefbfan said:
Yes. I looked and TCU is ranked 5 spots ahead of UCLA. One of them has a loss and the other is undefeated. But UCLA barely beats South Alabama and gives up 31 in the process. And UCLA has not beaten a team ranked in the CFP top 25, but TCU has beaten Kansas State and Oklahoma State, both in the CFP top 25. And TCU is only 5 spots ahead of them? And don't even get me started on Clemson. NC State with Leary almost lost to ECU, and Clemson gets credit for beating them? Notre Dame rips Syracuse a new one in Syracuse, the same Syracuse team that Clemson struggled to win in Death Valley.
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Their love for Clemson really does crack me up

It should really just be a top 15.

After 15 you just get a bunch of average mediocrity. 16-25 is just used to boost up other teams (Like Clemson)

LOOK THEY BEAT TOP 25 TEAMS. Yea, Syracuse and NC State who are in the 20s for reasons. Cool.

I like how they snuck Texas in there at the end to give Bama a little boost as well.

There are PLENTY of 3 loss teams they coulda put in over Texas

Texas has no quality wins and a loss to a 4-4 Texas Tech team
 
osubuckeye89 said:
Their love for Clemson really does crack me up

It should really just be a top 15.

After 15 you just get a bunch of average mediocrity. 16-25 is just used to boost up other teams (Like Clemson)

LOOK THEY BEAT TOP 25 TEAMS. Yea, Syracuse and NC State who are in the 20s for reasons. Cool.

I like how they snuck Texas in there at the end to give Bama a little boost as well.

There are PLENTY of 3 loss teams they coulda put in over Texas

Texas has no quality wins and a loss to a 4-4 Texas Tech team
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Yeah, I was actually thinking ND might get the nod as the 3 loss team to be ranked given our good wins(UNC, & Cuse). But it's understandable given our awful losses to Marshall and Stanford.
 
I will also say that I am not sure my rankings would be the "be all, end all" if I was in that room, but I know this:
Clemson would not be that high.
TCU would be higher.
Texas would not be in it.
NC State would be out. I mean you put 9 up more points on Syracuse than Wagner did. You beat the Hokies by one. Even Old Dominion did better than that.
Ole Miss that high? They have played five teams that are 3-5, and they have only beaten one P5 team with a winning record. Barely beating A&M and Tulsa isn't moving the needle either.
North Carolina. You want to preach about team balance and game control? The only thing balanced about UNC is they give up about as many points as they score, and they score a lot.
And UCF? Yeah they beat Cincy. That is the only win they have against a team with a winning record.
I might even put Maryland in at #25. The score against Michigan State was close to what Michigan did. Maryland played Michigan closer than any other team (I think). The Terps beat Indiana, and even Illinois can't say that.
 
Collegefbfan said:
I will also say that I am not sure my rankings would be the "be all, end all" if I was in that room, but I know this:
Clemson would not be that high.
TCU would be higher.
Texas would not be in it.
NC State would be out. I mean you put 9 up more points on Syracuse than Wagner did. You beat the Hokies by one. Even Old Dominion did better than that.
Ole Miss that high? They have played five teams that are 3-5, and they have only beaten one P5 team with a winning record. Barely beating A&M and Tulsa isn't moving the needle either.
North Carolina. You want to preach about team balance and game control? The only thing balanced about UNC is they give up about as many points as they score, and they score a lot.
And UCF? Yeah they beat Cincy. That is the only win they have against a team with a winning record.
I might even put Maryland in at #25. The score against Michigan State was close to what Michigan did. Maryland played Michigan closer than any other team (I think). The Terps beat Indiana, and even Illinois can't say that.
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North Carolina is about the worst 7-1 team youll ever see

2 Point win over App State
7 Point win over Georgia State
3 Point wins over Duke and Miami

Their loss was Notre Dame beating them fairly easily on their home field

They are a product of a weak ass schedule, have not even came close to overwhelming their weak opponents.
 
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