Scenario: Let Ball Drop?

[ELTEXAN]

Scenario:
2-1 lead
1 out
2 strikes.
Runners on corners.
Ace pitching.
Long fly ball hit to deep right foul territory that will score runner from third on a sac fly if caught.

In the 1st inning, you definitely catch that ball for out #2 and let the run score.
In the 9th inning, you definitely let that ball fall foul to try to close out the game with the lead, right?

So, in what inning do you start letting that ball fall foul instead of catching it for out #2?

 

[Guy Incognito]

Scenario:
2-1 lead
1 out
2 strikes.
Runners on corners.
Ace pitching.
Long fly ball hit to deep right foul territory that will score runner from third on a sac fly if caught.

In the 1st inning, you definitely catch that ball for out #2 and let the run score.
In the 9th inning, you definitely let that ball fall foul to try to close out the game with the lead, right?

So, in what inning do you start letting that ball fall foul instead of catching it for out #2?

Depends on pretty much everything. I'd say get the out every time you still have a chance to score, or unless the hitter is trash and is about to get a golden sombrero. So, probably only letting it drop if I'm the road team in the bottom of the 9th.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

You catch it through the 7th

7th inning or later is also the only appropriate time to bring the infield in

 

[DragonFromTo]

Scenario:
2-1 lead
1 out
2 strikes.
Runners on corners.
Ace pitching.
Long fly ball hit to deep right foul territory that will score runner from third on a sac fly if caught.

In the 1st inning, you definitely catch that ball for out #2 and let the run score.
In the 9th inning, you definitely let that ball fall foul to try to close out the game with the lead, right?

So, in what inning do you start letting that ball fall foul instead of catching it for out #2?

I know it sounds like it should be a crazy fun scenario but I think that you probably catch the ball in the vast majority of situations and take your chances on throwing the runner out at home or scoring another run yourself using your remaining ABs (if you have no ABs left you obviously let it drop). The big factor I see is that all that letting the ball drop really gets you is another opportunity in what is a pretty dangerous situation where a lot of bad things (many of them worse than a sac fly) could still happen to your pitcher/team anyway. I'm actually curious what the run expectancy shows.

I think a "better" question is maybe when you should start to pull the infield in? It's more likely to happen/have a tangible impact in that situation.

edit: I answered the question without reading it! I was thinking it was a tie game. I'm not sure it changes the numbers much but because humans are human it almost definitely changes the decision making.

 

[fordman84]

You never leave an out on the field. Ever. You always take the out and see what happens next. So in this scenario you catch the ball and fire to 2nd.

 

[huskers1217]

You never leave an out on the field. Ever. You always take the out and see what happens next. So in this scenario you catch the ball and fire to 2nd.

only if you are winning.

i dont let the leading run score in the ninth. dont care about tying run

 

[fordman84]

You let the ball fall, the next pitch the guy hits a seeing eye single through the gap to score the run and you get runners on the corner again. Except now still 1 out and the go ahead 90 feet away.

Always take the out.

 

[fordman84]

only if you are winning.

i dont let the leading run score in the ninth. dont care about tying run

No coach agrees with you. You have no guarantees that the next pitch won't be hit for a single.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

You never leave an out on the field. Ever. You always take the out and see what happens next. So in this scenario you catch the ball and fire to 2nd.

Never? Like if that sac fly is gonna walk it off for the other team, just say fuck it, next pitch might be a home, catch the ball and try again tomorrow?

 

[Guy Incognito]

Never? Like if that sac fly is gonna walk it off for the other team, just say fuck it, next pitch might be a home, catch the ball and try again tomorrow?

I'm only on board with letting it drop when you're in the bottom of the 9th or bottom of extras. If you have ABs coming, go get that out. No guarantee that the base runner doesn't slip, leave early, etc.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

I'm only on board with letting it drop when you're in the bottom of the 9th or bottom of extras. If you have ABs coming, go get that out. No guarantee that the base runner doesn't slip, leave early, etc.

I’m a gambler. 7th inning or later, let that shit drop, and if the batter does come through later in the AB, go head hunting the next day

 

[fordman84]

Never? Like if that sac fly is gonna walk it off for the other team, just say fuck it, next pitch might be a home, catch the ball and try again tomorrow?

Never. You make the play and see how it goes. If it is a loss then its a loss. But you don't prolong the game on hopes that the guy who just made solid enough contact to get the ball to you miraculously fails to do so again.

 

[DraftNerd]

Great scenario!!

I have to be with the rest here….bottom of 9th or extras you let it drop. Otherwise you always take the out.

Added wrinkle…if I’m the coach I’m not coaching on this. Players have to think about enough out there without all the variables that can apply here. I’m hoping I have smart players that can make high IQ plays when it matters.

 

[fordman84]

I’m a gambler. 7th inning or later, let that shit drop, and if the batter does come through later in the AB, go head hunting the next day

So don't do your job and try to injure someone the next day who simply did theirs?

 

[fordman84]

Great scenario!!

I have to be with the rest here….bottom of 9th or extras you let it drop. Otherwise you always take the out.

Added wrinkle…if I’m the coach I’m not coaching on this. Players have to think about enough out there without all the variables that can apply here. I’m hoping I have smart players that can make high IQ plays when it matters.

Any player ever does that and they sit the next game, guaranteed. You make the plays and let the cards fall where they can. There are a lot of high-IQ plays, but letting a foul ball drop on the hopes the next pitch won't be hit even harder isn't one of them.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

Never. You make the play and see how it goes. If it is a loss then its a loss. But you don't prolong the game on hopes that the guy who just made solid enough contact to get the ball to you miraculously fails to do so again.

You’d take a guaranteed loss over a chance of keeping it tied?

 

[fordman84]

You’d take a guaranteed loss over a chance of keeping it tied?

It's not a guaranteed loss until the run crosses the plate. A clean tag up still has to occur, a good break without any stumble has to occur...lots can still happen. So go hard and make the play. if it doesn't bounce your way, try harder next game.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

Any player ever does that and they sit the next game, guaranteed. You make the plays and let the cards fall where they can. There are a lot of high-IQ plays, but letting a foul ball drop on the hopes the next pitch won't be hit even harder isn't one of them.

I just wanna win and if a player is standing in the way, take him out. I’ve always said if a pitcher is shutting down your lineup, have the weakest link in the lineup charge the mound, force the pitcher to throw a punch so he gets ejected and then feast on the middle relievers

 

[fordman84]

I just wanna win and if a player is standing in the way, take him out. I’ve always said if a pitcher is shutting down your lineup, have the weakest link in the lineup charge the mound, force the pitcher to throw a punch so he gets ejected and then feast on the middle relievers

Bush league.

 

[Illustrious Potentate]

It's not a guaranteed loss until the run crosses the plate. A clean tag up still has to occur, a good break without any stumble has to occur...lots can still happen. So go hard and make the play. if it doesn't bounce your way, try harder next game.

I can only remember one time when the runner left the bag early and was called out on appeal, and it was a Phillies pitcher. Plus Buster Posey’s glass leg bones ruined plays at the plate. If the outfielder is having to go into foul territory, unless it’s a very shallow pop up where he’s calling off the middle infielder also tracking it, it’s gonna be a run