Selection Sunday Bracketology

ericd7633

ericd7633

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SOUTH REGIONAL (Atlanta, GA)

1. Auburn
16. ST. FRANCIS, PA(NEC)/AMERICAN(PL)
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
8. Connecticut
9. New Mexico

5. Clemson
12. LIBERTY (CUSA)
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
4. Michigan
13. YALE(IVY)

6. Missouri
11. DRAKE (MVC)
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
3. Texas Tech
14. ROBERT MORRIS (HORIZON)

7. Kansas
10. Georgia
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
2. ST. JOHN’S (BIG EAST)
15. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

EAST REGIONAL (NEWARK, NJ)

1. DUKE (ACC)
16. ALABAMA STATE(SWAC)/MOUNT ST. MARY’S(MAAC)
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
8. UCLA
9. Oklahoma

5. BYU
12. MCNEESE (SOUTHLAND)
- Amica Mutual Pavilion (Providence, RI)
4. Maryland
13. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)

6. Ole Miss
11. UC SAN DIEGO (BIG WEST)
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
3. Iowa State
14. UNC WILMINGTON (CAA)

7. St. Mary’s
10. West Virginia
- Rocket Mortgage Arena (Cleveland, OH)
2. Alabama
15. WOFFORD (SO CON.)

MIDWEST REGIONAL (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)

1. HOUSTON (B12)
16. SIUE(OVC)
- Intrust Bank Arena (Wichita, KS)
8. Mississippi State
9. Utah State

5. Purdue
12. COLORADO STATE (MWC)
- Ball Arena (Denver, CO)
4. Texas A&M
13. LIPSCOMB (A-SUN)

6. Louisville
11. VCU (A10)
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
3. WISCONSIN (B1G)
14. TROY (SUN BELT)

7. MEMPHIS(AAC)
10. Baylor
- Rupp Arena (Lexington, KY)
2. Tennessee
15. BRYANT (AM. EAST)

WEST REGIONAL (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)

1. FLORIDA (SEC)
16. NORFOLK STATE(MEAC)
- Lenovo Center (Raleigh, NC)
8. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Creighton

5. Oregon
12. Boise State/Vanderbilt
- Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA)
4. Arizona
13. AKRON (MAC)

6. Illinois
11. San Diego State/Xavier
- Fiserv Forum (Milwaukee, WI)
3. Kentucky
14. GRAND CANYON (WAC)

7. Marquette
10. Arkansas
- Rocket Mortgage Arena (Cleveland, OH)
2. Michigan State
15. OMAHA (SUMMIT)

Top 10 on “S” Curve: Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, Michigan State, Alabama St. Johns, Wisconsin, Kentucky
Last 4 BYES: Arkansas, UGA, Baylor, West Virginia
Last 4 IN: San Diego State, Boise State, Vanderbilt, Xavier
First 3 OUT: Indiana, Texas, UNC
 
Analysis:

At the end, it came down to 5 teams for 9 spots (assuming a Memphis win, as of now). If UAB wins the AQ, Xavier will be the first team OUT.

I would not be surprised if any of the following ended up in Dayton:

Baylor, WVU, SDSU, Boise State, Vandy, Xavier, IU, Texas, UNC.

Why I chose the teams I chose:

Baylor - Great predictive metrics. I think their resume metrics actually put them pretty close to missing the field, but if they are selected, I think their strong predictive metrics push them up a couple spots and out of Dayton. OOC SOS of 11 is obviously very good, and among this grouping of 9 teams stands out.

West Virginia - Have 4 Q1A wins (Kansas, Iowa State, Gonzaga and Arizona) With how this selection process work, I just think they were pretty far ahead of the cutline going into the conference tournaments. Not enough has happened for them to completely fall out. Resume metrics are solid, and played a very good SOS.

San Diego State - another very strong OOC SOS. 5 wins against at-large caliber opponents (Houston, Creighton, UC San Diego, CSU, New Mexico) and 2 more against Boise State if they make it. But in any case should have the tiebreaker over Boise if it came down to those two teams.

Boise State - Decent OOC SOS (121). Have 5 wins against at-large caliber opponents (St. Mary's, Clemson, New Mexico (x2), Utah State) Also have beaten SDSU should they make it. Cons: 2 bad losses (Washington State and Boston College...yuck). Predictive and resume metrics avg outside the top 50. If I get a team wrong, I think it'll be them, in favor of IU.

Vandy - Very good results based metrics given this part of the field. 5 really high end wins (Tennessee, Missouri, A&M, Ole Miss and Kentucky) Split with Texas FWIW. Cons: Very poor OOC schedule (330). Predictive metrics aren't too great.

Xavier - I don't think they have a great case, but when comparing them to UNC and IU, they have more wins against the field. 3 for Xavier (Marquette, UConn and Creighton). Just 2 for IU (MSU and Purdue) and just 1 for UNC (UCLA). Texas does have a bunch of quality wins (Kentucky, A&M (x2), Miss St, Missouri, OU, Vandy), but they played a bad OOC, and are under .500 in Q1-Q3. I know I'm a little contradictory by putting Boise in based on quality wins and leaving Texas out, but Boise is 4 games above .500 in Q1-Q3 and played a better OOC SOS. Also, getting back to Xavier, Freemantle missed 2 of their games against UConn and Marquette. Will the committee even realize that? Idk, but I think so. But that could be giving them too much credit.

Would it surprise me if it's an all SEC/MWC matchup in Dayton? No it wouldn't.

As always, trying to predict what the committee would do, not my own personal beliefs. I'd have Texas in over Xavier.
 
I would have the Top 2 seeds in this order...

Auburn, Houston, Duke, Florida
Tenn, Michigan State, Alabama, St Johns.

I didn't realize Michigan State had 13 Q1 wins, and that should put them in a contention for a #1 seed, but most of those are bottom Q1 wins while the SEC leaders have high Q1 wins, I think I get that.
 
ericd7633 said:
Analysis:

At the end, it came down to 5 teams for 9 spots (assuming a Memphis win, as of now). If UAB wins the AQ, Xavier will be the first team OUT.

I would not be surprised if any of the following ended up in Dayton:

Baylor, WVU, SDSU, Boise State, Vandy, Xavier, IU, Texas, UNC.

Why I chose the teams I chose:

Baylor - Great predictive metrics. I think their resume metrics actually put them pretty close to missing the field, but if they are selected, I think their strong predictive metrics push them up a couple spots and out of Dayton. OOC SOS of 11 is obviously very good, and among this grouping of 9 teams stands out.

West Virginia - Have 4 Q1A wins (Kansas, Iowa State, Gonzaga and Arizona) With how this selection process work, I just think they were pretty far ahead of the cutline going into the conference tournaments. Not enough has happened for them to completely fall out. Resume metrics are solid, and played a very good SOS.

San Diego State - another very strong OOC SOS. 5 wins against at-large caliber opponents (Houston, Creighton, UC San Diego, CSU, New Mexico) and 2 more against Boise State if they make it. But in any case should have the tiebreaker over Boise if it came down to those two teams.

Boise State - Decent OOC SOS (121). Have 5 wins against at-large caliber opponents (St. Mary's, Clemson, New Mexico (x2), Utah State) Also have beaten SDSU should they make it. Cons: 2 bad losses (Washington State and Boston College...yuck). Predictive and resume metrics avg outside the top 50. If I get a team wrong, I think it'll be them, in favor of IU.

Vandy - Very good results based metrics given this part of the field. 5 really high end wins (Tennessee, Missouri, A&M, Ole Miss and Kentucky) Split with Texas FWIW. Cons: Very poor OOC schedule (330). Predictive metrics aren't too great.

Xavier - I don't think they have a great case, but when comparing them to UNC and IU, they have more wins against the field. 3 for Xavier (Marquette, UConn and Creighton). Just 2 for IU (MSU and Purdue) and just 1 for UNC (UCLA). Texas does have a bunch of quality wins (Kentucky, A&M (x2), Miss St, Missouri, OU, Vandy), but they played a bad OOC, and are under .500 in Q1-Q3. I know I'm a little contradictory by putting Boise in based on quality wins and leaving Texas out, but Boise is 4 games above .500 in Q1-Q3 and played a better OOC SOS. Also, getting back to Xavier, Freemantle missed 2 of their games against UConn and Marquette. Will the committee even realize that? Idk, but I think so. But that could be giving them too much credit.

Would it surprise me if it's an all SEC/MWC matchup in Dayton? No it wouldn't.

As always, trying to predict what the committee would do, not my own personal beliefs. I'd have Texas in over Xavier.
Click to expand...



I think the bubble depends on how you view the conferences. I think the SEC is a little overrated, especially the middle and bottom but you need to give them their credit for a historic OOC.

ACC was so pitiful OOC, UNC is out.

Big Ten is I think is flat out underrated, so I would put Indiana in.

Big East I think is 50/50, I do think the 8/9 seeds can do damage, but wouldn't be surprised to see them lose either.

I think the 8/9 and 7/10 games will be great this year.
 
jontaejones said:
I would have the Top 2 seeds in this order...

Auburn, Houston, Duke, Florida
Tenn, Michigan State, Alabama, St Johns.

I didn't realize Michigan State had 13 Q1 wins, and that should put them in a contention for a #1 seed, but most of those are bottom Q1 wins while the SEC leaders have high Q1 wins, I think I get that.
Click to expand...

Yeah, MSU's resume is really strong, it's right there with Florida and Tennessee IMO (although slightly behind), but the predictive metrics are where they are lacking a little bit. It's hard to see the 11th team in the NET be in position to get a #1 seed, and their predictive metrics only avg out to about 10. So I think being the 2nd best #2 seed, somewhat splits the difference.
 
jontaejones said:
I think the bubble depends on how you view the conferences. I think the SEC is a little overrated, especially the middle and bottom but you need to give them their credit for a historic OOC.

ACC was so pitiful OOC, UNC is out.

Big Ten is I think is flat out underrated, so I would put Indiana in.

Big East I think is 50/50, I do think the 8/9 seeds can do damage, but wouldn't be surprised to see them lose either.

I think the 8/9 and 7/10 games will be great this year.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm really torn on Boise/IU/Xavier. Boise's got the best wins. IU has the results based metrics lead, and Xavier more so predictively. It really will come down to what the committee values. IU winning at MSU might be enough to get them in. Same with Xavier at Marquette.
 
ericd7633 said:
Yeah, I'm really torn on Boise/IU/Xavier. Boise's got the best wins. IU has the results based metrics lead, and Xavier more so predictively. It really will come down to what the committee values. IU winning at MSU might be enough to get them in. Same with Xavier at Marquette.
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I've Xavier play the most by far, and they're not really inspiring, either from a perspective to win multiple games, or what they've done on their resume.

I would take Indiana and Boise. Boise has a pretty nice OOC, they can't do that every year, so give them credit for that.
 
Kburjr said:
Bracket thought of the day

Of the Top 25 NET teams, only 3 have perfect records on a neutral court

Florida, Tennessee and Wisconsin.
Click to expand...

Only one of them lost to PSU at home though. 👀
 
I badly want WVU in and winning their first two games to make Iowa sweat on DDV.
 
Kburjr said:
Needed loss. Ended up to be an object lesson when it didn't hurt. If you don't play hard, anyone can beat you.
Click to expand...

My team sucks so I have to live vicariously through others since my team can't ever beat Wisconsin. Although my disdain for Bucky has lessened some since that prick Davison graduated. Lol
 
ericd7633 said:
My team sucks so I have to live vicariously through others since my team can't ever beat Wisconsin. Although my disdain for Bucky has lessened some since that prick Davison graduated. Lol
Click to expand...
Pete Rose of college basketball. Played hard. Either love him or hate him. Thug ball.
 
Almost midway through the best 2 weeks of college basketball. Outside of Wisconsin, I don't pay much attention to the details of other teams. This last week of B1G Tournament I pay attention to other conference members and this coming week, to the team in the dance. Hard doing fantasy baseball drafts at the same time.
 
Just want to be in the South region but I'm realizing I'll be Out of Town if Clemson were to make the sweet 16 :pout:
 
Going from the SEC title game to the AAC title game is a shock to the system.
 
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