Shit has hit the fan

[DraftNerd]

Yes... High end Cat 3. Just shy of Cat 4.

You were in Elena?
I was in Biloxi in a brick house about 1 mile inland.
Longest night ever with 125+ mph sustained winds for about 8 hours straight in pure darkness. We had candles and flashlights, but if you looked outside you couldn't see 3 ft through the driving rain.
Some of that 8 hours was nighttime and some morning daylight. The only calm was when the eye went over (early morning). We went outside and it was eerie. Sun was shining, perfectly calm, but a wall of dark clouds 360° around us. All the trees that were still standing were stripped clean of their leaves. Took about 1/2 hour for the eye to pass, then the wind came out of the opposite direction for another 4 hours. Most of the trees that survived the first round of winds succumbed to the winds coming from the opposite direction on the second round.
The house like many others only had roof damage. When one shingle let go they peeled back entire sections.

I was not in it, but I remember it. And looking back on the track I remember why. This was the one that was coming in east at the FL peninsula and decided to do a massive turn. We were preparing for it and got reprieve, so I must have paid attention to whatever media came out at the time about it.

Yeah….you were center stage for that bitch. Good thing it was just shingles and not the entire roof. I’ve seen here the difference between shingles (blue tarp time) and a roof totally gone. Usually this is determined by whether there was a bit of 1/2 inch plywood on windows.

 

[Red_Alert]

I was not in it, but I remember it. And looking back on the track I remember why. This was the one that was coming in east at the FL peninsula and decided to do a massive turn. We were preparing for it and got reprieve, so I must have paid attention to whatever media came out at the time about it.

Yeah….you were center stage for that bitch. Good thing it was just shingles and not the entire roof. I’ve seen here the difference between shingles (blue tarp time) and a roof totally gone. Usually this is determined by whether there was a bit of 1/2 inch plywood on windows.

Yep. Very erratic path.

The more modern models of today would have likely forecast it's stall and change of direction. We've learned a lot about Canes and what influences their movement in the last 30 years.

Troughs are the biggies.
Rule #1: Low pressure (a hurricane) cannot bust through a trough.

 

[DraftNerd]

Yep. Very erratic path.

The more modern models of today would have likely forecast it's stall and change of direction. We've learned a lot about Canes and what influences their movement in the last 30 years.

Troughs are the biggies.
Rule #1: Low pressure (a hurricane) cannot bust through a trough.

Funny….I agree with all you say. We have learned so much about what a cane can and can’t do.

But, boy you sound so different from the weather discussion I follow during the summer. A storm makes the slightest wobble and it’s “what the fuck? These models suck”.

 

[ukfanfrombirth (cali cat)]

Video out of Sacramento Kentucky of the giant wedge tornado.

I was born and bred in the Commonwealth, and I never knew there was a Sacramento, Kentucky.
I knew of Sparta, Versailles, Rooster Run and Monkey's Eyebrow (yes, you read that correctly, Monkey's Eyebrow), but not Sacramento.

 

[Red_Alert]

Funny….I agree with all you say. We have learned so much about what a cane can and can’t do.

But, boy you sound so different from the weather discussion I follow during the summer. A storm makes the slightest wobble and it’s “what the fuck? These models suck”.

LOL. Yeah I follow hurricane message boards. I see that stuff. Typically from novice posters looking for more information than they're getting off The Weather Channel.
Funny they become experts in short order and begin arguing with master weather bugs who know their shit and post there on the regular. "Yeah junior, come back when you can read a Vortex Data Message". LOL

Todays models 3 days out are pretty damn accurate to +/- 30 miles or so on landfall of they eye.
15 years ago you didn't trust those models until the Cane was one day out. Even the 5 day is fairly accurate in comparison.

The models have gotten damn good at intensity forecasts as well. Dropsonde data provides barometric data, temperature, and humidity from all elevations and they adjust the intensity models accordingly. I had a couple friends at Keesler that were Hurricane Hunters on C-130's. The amount of data those things collect when they fly through a storm is amazing. Wind speeds in particular and whether there's an actual eyewall. No eyewall, no cane. It's just a tropical storm for now.
Add to that the number of satellites collecting data today than back in the 70's, 80's, 90's.

I don't know how those Hurricane Hunters do it. C-130 hops from Biloxi to Dover, DE had me ready to blow chunks. I had the barf bag out the last 30 minutes or so every time. Most bouncy plane I've ever been in by far.
These peeps are flying into the turbulent winds of these massive systems then bust through the eye wall which is the most intensive part. I don't know how the crew does it.

 

[DraftNerd]

LOL. Yeah I follow hurricane message boards. I see that stuff. Typically from novice posters looking for more information than they're getting off The Weather Channel.
Funny they become experts in short order and begin arguing with master weather bugs who know their shit and post there on the regular. "Yeah junior, come back when you can read a Vortex Data Message". LOL

Todays models 3 days out are pretty damn accurate to +/- 30 miles or so on landfall of they eye.
15 years ago you didn't trust those models until the Cane was one day out. Even the 5 day is fairly accurate in comparison.

The models have gotten damn good at intensity forecasts as well. Dropsonde data provides barometric data, temperature, and humidity from all elevations and they adjust the intensity models accordingly. I had a couple friends at Keesler that were Hurricane Hunters on C-130's. The amount of data those things collect when they fly through a storm is amazing. Wind speeds in particular and whether there's an actual eyewall. No eyewall, no cane. It's just a tropical storm for now.
Add to that the number of satellites collecting data today than back in the 70's, 80's, 90's.

I don't know how those Hurricane Hunters do it. C-130 hops from Biloxi to Dover, DE had me ready to blow chunks. I had the barf bag out the last 30 minutes or so every time. Most bouncy plane I've ever been in by far.
These peeps are flying into the turbulent winds of these massive systems then bust through the eye wall which is the most intensive part. I don't know how the crew does it.

Ah….we might follow the same discussions…at least similar. Yep, that’s my experience. People give up on the news and come to these places and want it all distilled for them. Fuck off….read and learn how to follow like the rest of us did.

Between that and the shit stirrers….we are just following a storm that is over a week out from possible Con-US impact….stop asking what it will mean for Melody Lane in Boca Raton.

So, I know they use C-130s some for hunting (I’ve never been blessed to fly on one)….but aren’t most of the hunter missions P-3 Orion’s? That’s always been my impression. Not that these planes would provide a smoother, less bouncy ride than a Herc. Lol

 

[Kburjr]

Hurricane predictions do seem better, but tornados destruction path is so small that they still have a long ways to go before it is really helpful.

 

[Red_Alert]

Ah….we might follow the same discussions…at least similar. Yep, that’s my experience. People give up on the news and come to these places and want it all distilled for them. Fuck off….read and learn how to follow like the rest of us did.

Between that and the shit stirrers….we are just following a storm that is over a week out from possible Con-US impact….stop asking what it will mean for Melody Lane in Boca Raton.

So, I know they use C-130s some for hunting (I’ve never been blessed to fly on one)….but aren’t most of the hunter missions P-3 Orion’s? That’s always been my impression. Not that these planes would provide a smoother, less bouncy ride than a Herc. Lol

I used to follow Dr Jeff Masters on Wunderground a lot. He still blogs but not with discussion. There are some other good message boards where the old Wunderground pros gravitated to.

Air Force still flies the C-130's out of Keesler, AFB Biloxi, MS

NOAA flies the P3's out of Lakeland, FL

 

[DraftNerd]

I used to follow Dr Jeff Masters on Wunderground a lot. He still blogs but not with discussion. There are some other good message boards where the old Wunderground pros gravitated to.

Air Force still flies the C-130's out of Keesler, AFB Biloxi, MS

NOAA flies the P3's out of Lakeland, FL

Ok….it’s the local P-3s that I always thought were it. Good info.

I might need to look up deeper resources. Mostly it’s been social media. The data and analysis is good. The crap of all the comments is not.

 

[Red_Alert]

Hurricane predictions do seem better, but tornados destruction path is so small that they still have a long ways to go before it is really helpful.

They're getting good at forecasting risk levels a couple days out. Even tornado strength levels in some cases.

They know the ingredients it takes to get them bastids turning.

NOAA had last Friday nights tornadoes nailed down 30 hours in advance. That's when they first dropped the "T" word.

 

[Red_Alert]

Ok….it’s the local P-3s that I always thought were it. Good info.

I might need to look up deeper resources. Mostly it’s been social media. The data and analysis is good. The crap of all the comments is not.

I've just always been into it. Like I said my dad and I would track them on graph paper when I was a kid in the 70's.
Local news in Omaha didn't carry any of that and National News was only on for 1/2 hour at 5:30 pm (CT). They didn't say anything about canes unless there was an eminent strike or it'd already happened.

We had a ham radio and that's where we got reconnaissance data (Vortex Data), shipping data, etc..

Total coincidence I ended up getting stationed with peeps that actually flew the storms.
I was teaching radar electronics at Keesler to active duty, guard, and reserve Air Force, FAA, and Saudi military at the time.

 

[Kburjr]

They're getting good at forecasting risk levels a couple days out. Even tornado strength levels in some cases.

They know the ingredients it takes to get them bastids turning.

NOAA had last Friday nights tornadoes nailed down 30 hours in advance. That's when they first dropped the "T" word.

View attachment 52551

Oh, yeah, like I said much better. But then, I was in the same risk area as Edwardsville. The outcome differed severely.

 

[occupant]

Harrowing scenes playing out. Hope those folks can find each other and some of us for comfort and support.

That being said....
These people in this Kentucky town had at least 2 hours SOLID warning from local tv and radio stations of a tornado on the ground and where it was headed.

Do people not pay attention to the threat of severe weather?

Trust me, I've seen first-hand of what an F4 and F5 tornado is capable of. There is no hope for an individual that finds themselves without reinforced rooms or shelters when a big one is near....but its starting to sound like there may have been a cavalier approach by some, including those whose job it is to keep people (subordinates) safe. I've been this close to throwing the fam and animals into the car to hightail it out of the path of a storm....and I have a basement! You don't fuck with these powerful tornados folks. These goddamn things will scour the earth CLEAN to the roots and everything they pick up is moving at over 300 mph.

 

[Red_Alert]

Confidence levels were extremely high 24 hours out.

 

[Kburjr]

Confidence levels were extremely high 24 hours out.

View attachment 52555

A hurricane misses by 20 miles, outcomes are the same. A tornado misses by 1 mile, the outcomes differ.

I have tornado warnings maybe 3-4 times a year. I have tornado watches probably 20-25 times per year. Watches mean nearly nothing, warnings mean be alert, but ain't no one hiding.

 

[occupant]

Watches mean nearly nothing, warnings mean be alert, but ain't no one hiding.

 

[Red_Alert]

Harrowing scenes playing out. Hope those folks can find each other and some of us for comfort and support.

That being said....
These people in this Kentucky town had at least 2 hours SOLID warning from local tv and radio stations of a tornado on the ground and where it was headed.

Do people not pay attention to the threat of severe weather?

Trust me, I've seen first-hand of what an F4 and F5 tornado is capable of. There is no hope for an individual that finds themselves without reinforced rooms or shelters when a big one is near....but its starting to sound like there may have been a cavalier approach by some, including those whose job it is to keep people (subordinates) safe. I've been this close to throwing the fam and animals into the car to hightail it out of the path of a storm....and I have a basement! You don't fuck with these powerful tornados folks. These goddamn things will scour the earth CLEAN to the roots and everything they pick up is moving at over 300 mph.

Damn skippy.

That one in Moore, OK a few years back took the concrete right out of the damn interstate.
I was fortunate enough to have missed it. I'd been long-term staying on that side of town doing some contracts at Will Rogers and Mike Monroney and left out of there 10 days prior.
I had a colleague still there doing a different project and his car got beat to shit by baseball size hail. There wasn't an intact window left in it. Looked like someone had taken an 8 lb sledge hammer to the rest of it. He was about 1/2 mile away from the tornado path though.

 

[Red_Alert]

Oh, yeah, like I said much better. But then, I was in the same risk area as Edwardsville. The outcome differed severely.

That's why they tell us to stay alert. Pay attention peeps. Stay close to sturdy shelter.

 

[White Knight]

I suppose if there were one thing you were good at, it would be blowing.

Shoo troll.

 

[Red_Alert]

A hurricane misses by 20 miles, outcomes are the same. A tornado misses by 1 mile, the outcomes differ.

I have tornado warnings maybe 3-4 times a year. I have tornado watches probably 20-25 times per year. Watches mean nearly nothing, warnings mean be alert, but ain't no one hiding.

Huh?

Watches mean be alert. Warnings mean take cover now.