Straight seeding model expected for 2025 CFP

[Deep Creek]

why someone with history? what difference does that make

probably doesn’t. The thing is I don’t see one school with enough cache to dominate over any length of time.

And from what we’ve seen, it is
Looking like Kansas will even regress to the mean in hoops.

As UCF’s alumni gets larger and larger, they probably have the most hidden potential imo.

 

[Blackshirts BLVD]

Just saw this, it's an interesting take on a CFP model.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I don't think you are giving Sankey and the SEC credit ... they are playing everyone. When you are the SEC, everyone jumps your shit. Other fans, media, etc. The minute the P2 started talking about AQs where they got 4 and others got 2, the media went after the SEC, saying they were stacking the deck, asking for places to be decided before the season started. So, they said fuck it, we will go with 5+11 and the media and opposing fans went apeshit when they realized that the SEC could get 6 and they accused the SEC of wanting to dominate the CFP. In other words, no matter what the SEC said, they were going to give them shit. So, the SEC can now say double fuck it, we'll do what is best for us because you are going to give us shit no matter what.

Here is what I think they will do:

- They will go to 9 ... they weren't going to do that without AQs, but they also can't walk away from the $80 million it brings in, plus TV Viewership that will kick the B1G in the balls more than it did last year. With 9 games, there will another 4-6 four million games.

- They will agree to 4-4-2.5-2.5-1-2. This will let the SEC do the play-in scenario which will generate a bunch more money. I like the 2.5-2.5 part of this as it means the 1/2 from each the ACC and B12 play each other for their conference championship and seeding. Then the 3 from each conference will player each other cross-conference to see who get the non-P2 5 AQ. This will make Championship Weekend, which will be on Thanksgiving unreal ... Thursday night - Saturday night, wall to wall awesome football with 8 games deciding who is going to get in. Again, it will generate a ton of money.

- With this, the SEC gets a shot at a 5th in most years. Keep in mind that the SEC gets paid the same whether they have 2 or 6. I am sure they will be happy to make an extra $100 million each year, and get 4-5 in every year.

- The only thing in question is that extra .5 each for the ACC/B12. Maybe the SEC says fuck it, we want a shot at 2 at-large.

- The ACC and the B12 have to understand they would be better off with the 2.

- That said, I think we all have recently bias. I went back and looked at the teams that would have gotten in and the B12 does a lot better than you would think. Whether they can maintain that in the NIL era, I don't know, but they have had a lot more teams that would get into a CFP-16 than I thought.

-

Let’s get one thing straight, the SEC was ALWAYS going to do what’s best for the SEC. Ether one of these CFP choices is of no detriment to the SEC. So yeah, he and the SEC will get criticism both ways. Remember he had no problems lobbing criticism of his own at the selection process this past CFP.

I love your scenario and wish it would happen. I just really don’t see a world where the SEC is willing to give the ACC/B12 that 5th spot guaranteed nor do I really blame them. If it was up to Sankey, there’d be no AQs. But he won’t ever get the votes needed for that. So 5+11 is the next best thing. And while it probably behooves the B12 to take the guaranteed 2 AQs, I think it’s Yormark playing the long game for power as the money is pretty much guaranteed no matter what until the 2030’s if I’m not mistaken. He wants to earn it on the field. Well if you are going to talk the talk, you better damn sure walk the walk B12. No stupid fucking excuses.

 

[ralphiewvu]

why someone with history? what difference does that make

I think people are more likely to judge them better if they have a little history behind them. Just my opinion. But it doesn’t have to be. If someone like Houston or Iowa State did it, they’d work too.

 

[OlyDuck]

I think people are more likely to judge them better if they have a little history behind them. Just my opinion. But it doesn’t have to be. If someone like Houston or Iowa State did it, they’d work too.

i like it when the conference isnt 1 team or even 2 dominant. I enjoyed and would have even if i wasnt an oregon fan when Oregon and stanford were trading back and forth more than USC under Pete.

 

[Deep Creek]

CFP Playoff-Make it simple

Increasing viewership > Best/Most deserving

Quotes I found interesting from the article.

"College football is an unbelievable, regional sport that became national right around the BCS … For all its flaws, it did nationalize sport. So one of the challenges I’ve seen the sport have, trying to capture the I-95 sports fan, right? Boston, New York, Philly, you want to bring them in the same way you bring them in on the first Thursday of the NCAA tournament …

You want to capture that casual fan, because you have the guy in Birmingham, you can’t get any more people to watch in Birmingham. And the idea of the 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, 3, if you’re sitting at the bar in Southie, trying to talk about Notre Dame’s playoff chances, it’s just like your head would explode, right?” Good luck trying to figure that out if you’re a casual football fan. The College Football Playoff, as Thamel describes it, is trying to appeal to those from non-traditional college football areas. If you can make it look like the NFL, you might have a chance."

 

[ralphiewvu]

CFP Playoff-Make it simple

Increasing viewership > Best/Most deserving

Quotes I found interesting from the article.

"College football is an unbelievable, regional sport that became national right around the BCS … For all its flaws, it did nationalize sport. So one of the challenges I’ve seen the sport have, trying to capture the I-95 sports fan, right? Boston, New York, Philly, you want to bring them in the same way you bring them in on the first Thursday of the NCAA tournament …

You want to capture that casual fan, because you have the guy in Birmingham, you can’t get any more people to watch in Birmingham. And the idea of the 4, 4, 2, 2, 1, 3, if you’re sitting at the bar in Southie, trying to talk about Notre Dame’s playoff chances, it’s just like your head would explode, right?” Good luck trying to figure that out if you’re a casual football fan. The College Football Playoff, as Thamel describes it, is trying to appeal to those from non-traditional college football areas. If you can make it look like the NFL, you might have a chance."

That’s a good read. 5+11 is good for a bunch of players here.

ESPN should love this to drive up interest from speculation on who makes it.

It makes the cap larger for ALL CONFERENCES having a good year. Ex with a 5+11 format this past year the SEC gets 6 teams in. Using the 4-4-2-2-1-3 model they would have only gotten 5. I’m sure Sankey knows this.

It does not codify the SEC and B1G as 2xbetter than the ACC and B12(Even if they are) like the 4-4-2-2 format would.

While I’m warming up to this 5+11 format. I’m still mightily worried how the selection committee picks teams. That’s why I’m still kinda shocked the B12 didn’t jump on the 4-4-2-2-1-3 deal.

 

[ericd7633]

That’s a good read. 5+11 is good for a bunch of players here.

ESPN should love this to drive up interest from speculation on who makes it.

It makes the cap larger for ALL CONFERENCES having a good year. Ex with a 5+11 format this past year the SEC gets 6 teams in. Using the 4-4-2-2-1-3 model they would have only gotten 5. I’m sure Sankey knows this.

It does not codify the SEC and B1G as 2xbetter than the ACC and B12(Even if they are) like the 4-4-2-2 format would.

While I’m warming up to this 5+11 format. I’m still mightily worried how the selection committee picks teams. That’s why I’m still kinda shocked the B12 didn’t jump on the 4-4-2-2-1-3 deal.

Win your games OOC if you want to be selected for at large spots. In 2026 the Big 12 has OOC games against the following:

ASU @ Texas A&M
Baylor @ Auburn
BYU vs. Cal
Cincy vs. Boston College
Colorado @ Northwestern & @ Georgia Tech
ISU @ Iowa
Kansas vs Missouri
KSU vs. Tulane (top G5 school)
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
TCU vs. UNC
UCF @ Pitt
Utah vs. Arkansas
WVU vs. Alabama & UVA

That's 14 games against P4 teams, one against a top G5 team, and that didn't include games against Oregon State and Wazzu.

Go something like 9-5 and the B12 stands a good chance at getting 3.

 

[Deep Creek]

Win your games OOC if you want to be selected for at large spots. In 2026 the Big 12 has OOC games against the following:

ASU @ Texas A&M
Baylor @ Auburn
BYU vs. Cal
Cincy vs. Boston College
Colorado @ Northwestern & @ Georgia Tech
ISU @ Iowa
Kansas vs Missouri
KSU vs. Tulane (top G5 school)
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
TCU vs. UNC
UCF @ Pitt
Utah vs. Arkansas
WVU vs. Alabama & UVA

That's 14 games against P4 teams, one against a top G5 team, and that didn't include games against Oregon State and Wazzu.

Go something like 9-5 and the B12 stands a good chance at getting 3.

Yep...but you have to schedule them to win 'em. And that varies greatly among the group. With only three OOC opportunities, schools need to schedule at least two "good" opponents IMHO.

Don't see Northwestern on Colorado's schedule. I see Ga Tech, Delaware and Wyoming. I also don't see Bama on West Virginia's. They show Robert Morris, Ohio and Pitt.

Only ones I see with two P2s/Middle 2s is TCU and Baylor. Both have SMU, TCU has UNC and Baylor has Auburn. I can't find another one that has more than one. If they want to get the committee's attention, they need to schedule AND win those.

But that isn't solely applicable to the Big 12. Maybe some of them want to follow the Indiana plan of last year in having an OOC of FIU, WIU and Charlotte. Or like Indiana this year with ODU, Kennesaw and Indiana State. The committee didn't seem to punish them much for such.

 

[ericd7633]

Yep...but you have to schedule them to win 'em. And that varies greatly among the group. With only three OOC opportunities, schools need to schedule at least two "good" opponents IMHO.

Don't see Northwestern on Colorado's schedule. I see Ga Tech, Delaware and Wyoming. I also don't see Bama on West Virginia's. They show Robert Morris, Ohio and Pitt.

Only ones I see with two P2s/Middle 2s is TCU and Baylor. Both have SMU, TCU has UNC and Baylor has Auburn. I can't find another one that has more than one. If they want to get the committee's attention, they need to schedule AND win those.

But that isn't solely applicable to the Big 12. Maybe some of them want to follow the Indiana plan of last year in having an OOC of FIU, WIU and Charlotte. Or like Indiana this year with ODU, Kennesaw and Indiana State. The committee didn't seem to punish them much for such.

All the schedules I referenced were for 2026. Not this season.

You can say IU was rewarded for playing an easy schedule, but there were multiple 2 loss teams ranked ahead of them, and had Bama not lost to OU, they would have been ahead as well. With it looking like it's moving to 16, 1 loss teams will make it 100% of the time I'd guess. But it could have gotten dicey under a 12 team format.

And yeah, that's my point too. Schedule premium OOC games, and win them, and then you'll get more credit and more teams at the end.

If WVU beats Bama, Okie State beats Oregon and ASU beats A&M, all the sudden 2 loss B12 teams will be looked at much differently.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Win your games OOC if you want to be selected for at large spots. In 2026 the Big 12 has OOC games against the following:

ASU @ Texas A&M
Baylor @ Auburn
BYU vs. Cal
Cincy vs. Boston College
Colorado @ Northwestern & @ Georgia Tech
ISU @ Iowa
Kansas vs Missouri
KSU vs. Tulane (top G5 school)
Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
TCU vs. UNC
UCF @ Pitt
Utah vs. Arkansas
WVU vs. Alabama & UVA

That's 14 games against P4 teams, one against a top G5 team, and that didn't include games against Oregon State and Wazzu.

Go something like 9-5 and the B12 stands a good chance at getting 3.

No one’s arguing to not win OOC games. But right now that does feel like it’s enough. Look at BYU last year, they couldn’t even get mentioned for a spot at the end there while having a win at SMU with the same amount of losses as SMU. Christ a few 3 loss teams were ranked ahead of them before the rankings came out. That right there should scare folks in the B12 and ACC when it comes to this committee. And I’m sorry but some if these games are going to be laughed at if used as a marque win.

 

[Deep Creek]

All the schedules I referenced were for 2026. Not this season.

You can say IU was rewarded for playing an easy schedule, but there were multiple 2 loss teams ranked ahead of them, and had Bama not lost to OU, they would have been ahead as well. With it looking like it's moving to 16, 1 loss teams will make it 100% of the time I'd guess. But it could have gotten dicey under a 12 team format.

And yeah, that's my point too. Schedule premium OOC games, and win them, and then you'll get more credit and more teams at the end.

If WVU beats Bama, Okie State beats Oregon and ASU beats A&M, all the sudden 2 loss B12 teams will be looked at much differently.

Not only for playoffs but for their fans. I just can't believe fans want to observe blowouts. But, I'm beginning to think I'm 100% wrong.

 

[ericd7633]

No one’s arguing to not win OOC games. But right now that does feel like it’s enough. Look at BYU last year, they couldn’t even get mentioned for a spot at the end there while having a win at SMU with the same amount of losses as SMU. Christ a few 3 loss teams were ranked ahead of them before the rankings came out. That right there should scare folks in the B12 and ACC when it comes to this committee. And I’m sorry but some if these games are going to be laughed at if used as a marque win.

I would agree about BYU. The problem was they lost back to back games late in the year with one against a bad KU team. But the middle of the conference, from Colorado on down to Cincy all lost games OOC. CU to Nebraska, TCU to SMU, Texas Tech to Wazzu, WVU to PSU and Pitt, KU to Illinois. Baylor also lost an "OOC" game against Utah. Illinois, PSU and SMU were ranked teams by the end. Had TCU beaten SMU, that would have likely eliminated them from the conversation with an ACCCG loss.

And I never said they'd all be considered marquee wins. But simply beating them will help overall record and conference perception. Beating Bama and Okie State is unlikely, at this point, but even losing them and winning a majority of the rest would bode well. A big reason Bama missed was because they lost to Vandy, who lost to Georgia State. Sam can be said for Ole Miss losing to UF, who lost to Miami. It's a trickle down effect.

 

[ralphiewvu]

I would agree about BYU. The problem was they lost back to back games late in the year with one against a bad KU team. But the middle of the conference, from Colorado on down to Cincy all lost games OOC. CU to Nebraska, TCU to SMU, Texas Tech to Wazzu, WVU to PSU and Pitt, KU to Illinois. Baylor also lost an "OOC" game against Utah. Illinois, PSU and SMU were ranked teams by the end. Had TCU beaten SMU, that would have likely eliminated them from the conversation with an ACCCG loss.

And I never said they'd all be considered marquee wins. But simply beating them will help overall record and conference perception. Beating Bama and Okie State is unlikely, at this point, but even losing them and winning a majority of the rest would bode well. A big reason Bama missed was because they lost to Vandy, who lost to Georgia State. Sam can be said for Ole Miss losing to UF, who lost to Miami. It's a trickle down effect.

I’m obviously not saying the B12 was some gauntlet. But that last ranking before the CFP BYU was ranked behind 3 loss SEC teams as a 2 loss team and the team they beat head to head while having the same losses made the playoff. If BYU can’t even get mentioned as a possible CFP candidate that last week while SMU makes it, I just don't have confidence anyone else in the B12 is going to get the benefit of the doubt if resumes are even moderately close.

Obviously there is some marque wins there that’ll be damn tough. But there’s also some games that should be expected wins and if they aren’t they could damage resumes. But I do agree there is some opportunities to help conference perception.

 

[ericd7633]

I’m obviously not saying the B12 was some gauntlet. But that last ranking before the CFP BYU was ranked behind 3 loss SEC teams as a 2 loss team and the team they beat head to head while having the same losses made the playoff. If BYU can’t even get mentioned as a possible CFP candidate that last week while SMU makes it, I just don't have confidence anyone else in the B12 is going to get the benefit of the doubt if resumes are even moderately close.

Obviously there is some marque wins there that’ll be damn tough. But there’s also some games that should be expected wins and if they aren’t they could damage resumes. But I do agree there is some opportunities to help conference perception.

Yes, I get that, but I do think it was justified. I think the best thing moving forward, if the committee is going to be consistent, is that, when it goes to 16, the Big 12 and ACC's top 2 will be in anyway, as they don't want to penalize CCG participants. So then you're looking 7 spots remaining, assuming ND is top 16, which I think we will be most years. I think that's where OOC performance will really matter. Let's say you have 3 B12 teams with 2 losses, only 2 can go to the CCG, so that puts the third team in a pretty good chance to get an at large. For example, WVU goes 10-2(7-2) but has the Bama win OOC. They'll get heavy consideration not even knowing what else has happened.

And Id agree. It's like what Yormark said. Win it on the field, or something to that effect.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Yes, I get that, but I do think it was justified. I think the best thing moving forward, if the committee is going to be consistent, is that, when it goes to 16, the Big 12 and ACC's top 2 will be in anyway, as they don't want to penalize CCG participants. So then you're looking 7 spots remaining, assuming ND is top 16, which I think we will be most years. I think that's where OOC performance will really matter. Let's say you have 3 B12 teams with 2 losses, only 2 can go to the CCG, so that puts the third team in a pretty good chance to get an at large. For example, WVU goes 10-2(7-2) but has the Bama win OOC. They'll get heavy consideration not even knowing what else has happened.

And Id agree. It's like what Yormark said. Win it on the field, or something to that effect.

I in no way think it was justified. And that’s exactly what I’m worried will continue to happen. But in your scenario will that 2 loss WVU with the bama ooc win still be ranked outside the top 16 and behind 3 SEC teams who each have 3 losses while also not playing in their conference champ game? Because that’s exactly what I believe would happen ultimately keeping out WVU. Right now it’s very hard to see a 3 loss non champ from the B12 or ACC making it in even at 16. But I guess we’ll see.

 

[ericd7633]

I in no way think it was justified. And that’s exactly what I’m worried will continue to happen. But in your scenario will that 2 loss WVU with the bama ooc win still be ranked outside the top 16 and behind 3 SEC teams who each have 3 losses while also not playing in their conference champ game? Because that’s exactly what I believe would happen ultimately keeping out WVU. Right now it’s very hard to see a 3 loss non champ from the B12 or ACC making it in even at 16. But I guess we’ll see.

The B12 was really hurt by bad OOC results last year. The league went 5-11 against P4 competition and good G5 programs like Wazzu, Tulane and UNLV. Cincy beating Pittsburgh and KU beating Illinois or UNLV would have resulted in them being .500+ victories in the eyes of the committee. That would have propped up Iowa State, Colorado and Kansas State's resumes a little as teams who were ranked most the year. Along with Colorado beating a pretty mediocre Nebraska team.

That's what has to change for the Big 12. I do think there's plenty of scenarios where the Big 12 could be like the ACC last season. Top two make a 16 teamer and a 3rd at large with Miami.

As for the WVU scenario. I fully believe if they went 10-2 with a Bama win they'd probably be about where Miami was last season, and pretty safely in a 16 team field. And that's even if Bama was down and was 8-4 or something. I think a 3rd team from the ACC and Big 12 will make it far more often than not. In most cases we'll know by like 4/5 depending on the OOC results.

 

[fishinabarrel]

Not only for playoffs but for their fans. I just can't believe fans want to observe blowouts. But, I'm beginning to think I'm 100% wrong.

It depends really. Blowing out some sacrificial lamb OOC is definitely meh but blowing out a team that is supposed to compete against I certainly have no problem with. Those games against Tennessee and Oregon last playoff were glorious

 

[Deep Creek]

It depends really. Blowing out some sacrificial lamb OOC is definitely meh but blowing out a team that is supposed to compete against I certainly have no problem with. Those games against Tennessee and Oregon last playoff were glorious

I was referring to OOC cupcakes being scheduled. I don’t like watching them on the tube or in person. I guess I’m just ont a loyalist of teams that schedule them…and there are many that do so.

And often my guys are the cupcake whore!